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Venture firms often look to emulate others — chasing sectors, stages, or portfolio models that appear to be working. But as Pejman Nozad of Pear VC reminded us in a recent discussion, performance doesn’t come from following the crowd. It comes from knowing exactly who you are and executing with discipline. He underscored a key truth: there’s no single formula for building a successful venture firm. Multi-stage platforms and focused seed specialists can both generate top-tier returns. What matters is clarity of strategy, and being exceptional in your chosen domain. For allocators and managers alike, it’s a useful calibration. Endurance in venture isn’t about breadth or trend-following. It’s about strategic fidelity and operational excellence over time. Watch the full webinar to hear more insights on what it takes to build a lasting venture franchise. https://lnkd.in/gJJ3P48x

Each week, Allocate's Investments Team highlights a resource informing our market perspective. This week, Ben Weintraub from our Investments Team features a private markets analysis from Katmai Labs by Arctos, exploring the path to private market exit normalization and the evolving macro effects of tariffs. Katmai Labs blends rigorous quantitative work with practical market insights. Here are three key takeaways: 1. Intrinsic values are approaching parity but not yet normalized. Arctos’ IV indicator, which tracks the market value of PE assets relative to GP-reported NAVs, has recovered meaningfully from recent lows. Still, unless forced, GPs tend to hold over-marked assets and “wait it out” until intrinsic values catch up, weighing on mark-to-market returns and distributions. The rebound is encouraging, but historically it has taken sustained periods of above-parity levels to support normalized exit activity. 3. The "New Exit Game" has structurally altered sponsor incentives. Fundraising remains constrained even in the face of favorable macro tailwinds such as strong GDP growth, an AI boom, and rising public markets. With limited visibility into replacement capital, sponsors are holding assets rather than crystallizing carry. Asset sales shrink AUM and fee bases, so IVs may need to trade well above NAVs to trigger exit activity comparable to prior cycles. 3. Financial conditions are offsetting tariff headwinds, for now. Tariffs act as a tax increase with negative macro implications, but easing monetary and fiscal conditions continue to drive market strength. The balance is fragile: the outlook depends on avoiding new shocks and maintaining accommodation through year-end. For now, conditions appear cautiously constructive heading into the second half and early next year. For the detailed data analysis from Katmai Labs, see https://lnkd.in/gtH4qfGz Nic Millikan, CFA, Camila Orozco Gil

In venture, reputation isn’t built when you win a deal. It’s also built in how you pass. During our recent webinar, Ben Taft of Genius Ventures shared how his team approaches “no” as a defining part of their identity. Rather than sending a standard decline, they pick up the phone. Their goal is to give founders thoughtful, candid feedback — the kind that helps them improve, even when the answer isn’t yes. It’s a founder’s mindset applied to venture: empathy as a discipline, not a posture. Genius Ventures believes the long-term trust that shapes great partnerships often starts in those early, uncomfortable conversations. Hear more from Ben and other emerging managers on how they’re redefining what it means to build lasting relationships in early-stage venture. https://lnkd.in/g3UBqTbK

Venture has trifurcated into 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗰𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗲𝘀. Each has a different playbook. 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆 𝟭: 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀, 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 (𝗽𝗿𝗲-𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗱/𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗱) Need to truly go early. Invest at pre-seed and true seed before valuations reflect momentum or things become obvious to everyone. A few momentum exceptions are fine. Building an entire portfolio based on heat probably only works in very sustained bull markets (and even then, it isn't consistently a winning strategy when defined by DPI). Portfolio sizes should be 40+ companies to account for failure rates and lack of early visibility. While most emerging funds won't make it to Fund 4, those looking for classic venture alpha (high cash-on-cash potential), this is where it still exists. Some good news: I think the downturn actually improved the landscape. Higher barriers to entry have improved the signal-to-noise among new entrants and the firms that survived. 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆 𝟮: 𝗠𝗶𝗱-𝘀𝗶𝘇𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 (𝗦𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗕) Pick a theme and build every part of the business around it—team, network, expertise, value prop, brand. The portfolio should primarily be Seed and A at entry, with ownership targets of 15-20%. Competition comes from both ends of the venture spectrum at seed/A, and the right to win here is harder than ever. Drifting into generalist mode at mid-size fund level ($300MM-$500MM) is nearly impossible unless there's massive brand equity already built. 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆 𝟯: 𝗠𝗲𝗴𝗮'𝘀 (full lifecycle) Invest large quantums of capital in proven winners. Very early checks are no more than options (although firms need to navigate the risk of being conflicted out of a competitor). Access is mainly the name of the game here, as most megas are investing behind consensus. The edge is access to category winners, speed on large check sizes - Brand/size becomes necessary here to compete. Fewer than 15 here, and this area is akin to Apollo, Blackstone, etc in PE. For allocators, risk goes from higher to lower across the categories, and expectation on return multiples should generally reflect that. Of course, there are outliers and exceptions, but the above is generally the playbook as it exists today.    

Allocate spent last week at Dynasty’s Investor Forum in Austin and the Family Wealth Alliance Fall Forum in Chicago — two timely gatherings where independent firms explored what it takes to lead through change. In Austin, discussions centered on opportunity: how firms scale with intention, align stakeholders, and adopt technology that enhances, not replaces, human capital. AI emerged as a clear enabler at the application layer, with use cases focused on personalization, efficiency, and scale without compromising margin or independence. In Chicago, the focus turned to execution. The most advanced family offices are embedding AI into workflows, rethinking tech stacks, and building data infrastructure as core IP. As generational transitions accelerate, the need for transparency, segmentation, and integrated systems is only growing. Across both forums, one theme stood out: technology isn’t a bolt-on — it’s becoming the operating system. And in private markets, access is only the start. Visibility, governance, and precision are what create durable advantage. We’re grateful to Dynasty Financial Partners and Family Wealth Alliance, Inc. for convening these forward-looking conversations, and reaffirming our mission to help firms institutionalize how they access and manage private markets. Peter Epstein, Richard Carr, Austen McGregor, Cooper J. Parks, Raj Khathuria, Samir Kaji, Hana Yang

Many early-stage venture firms define a strategy and then build a team to execute it. Bruce Leak of Playground Global offered a more grounded view: the most effective strategies are inseparable from the teams who shape them, and evolve with them. For emerging managers in particular, differentiation often hinges on team identity. What is your superpower? Why is your team uniquely suited to the opportunity? As Bruce put it, firm-building mirrors company-building. It’s less about rigid plans and more about pairing the right people with the right mission, iterating quickly, and learning in real time. This mindset — the willingness to pivot, recalibrate, and lean into what works — is often what distinguishes enduring firms from the rest. This was just one of several perspectives shared in our panel on building lasting venture franchises. Watch the full conversation at https://lnkd.in/ghkgXBcW

Each week, Allocate's investment team highlights a resource shaping our perspective on investing. This week, we feature a conversation with Melvin Hibberd, CIO of Hunter Point Capital LP, on the "How I Invest" podcast. Hibberd shares hard-won lessons from over a decade in GP stakes investing, revealing how the sector has matured from pure capital provision into genuine strategic partnership. Key insights include: • Auctions optimize for price but carry adverse selection and structural costs. When five GPs from the same sector surface simultaneously, it signals fundraising struggles, not strength — the question degrades from "should I own this asset class?" to "which troubled firm is least bad?" Competitive processes also cannot accommodate multi-dimensional structuring — negotiating attachment points, time horizons, and risk-sharing mechanics across 20 bidders destroys comparability. Bilateral negotiations solve both: conviction-driven outreach to managers not selling from necessity, with space to customize structures for alignment rather than price alone. • The LP misalignment concern has largely vanished as evidence accumulates. Research shows no performance degradation post-stake, and sophisticated LPs now recognize that procurement savings, succession planning, and institutionalization efforts flow directly to their benefit. When a stakes investor delivers $63 million in annual portfolio company savings, those dollars accrue to LPs in the underlying funds, not just the GP. • GP stakes fail for predictable reasons: misalignment from rushed processes, or backing mediocre managers into sector downturns. The antidote is time. Understanding decision-making dynamics, equity distribution evolution, and true key person risk requires months or years of diligence, not six-week auction cycles. Proprietary origination also enables offensive portfolio construction — selecting asset classes first based on secular tailwinds, then finding the right partners within them. • Base case underwriting should assume competence, not miracles. The goal is buying sensibly and protecting downside, not underwriting to mythical takeout prices at insane multiples. If the math depends on legacy management fees plus reasonable carry with the next fund raise as the break-even threshold, that's honest underwriting. Optionality to venture-like outcomes exists, but building a portfolio that requires them is building a portfolio destined to disappoint. 🎧 Listen to the full episode: https://lnkd.in/ghENk2-A Ben Weintraub, Camila Orozco Gil, Nic Millikan, CFA

Grateful to have joined the Dynasty Investor Forum 2025 in Austin today! Allocate’s Peter Epstein had the opportunity to moderate "The AI Shift: How Consumer Innovation is Rewriting Human Behavior and Business Expectations", a timely and engaging conversation with Michael Mignano of Lightspeed. A sincere thank you to the Dynasty Financial Partners team for bringing together such a thoughtful community of advisors and industry leaders. And to Michael — thank you for the sharp perspective and insights you brought to the discussion. With over a decade spent helping RIAs and wealth managers evolve their approach to alternative investments, Peter brings a practical lens to how innovation in consumer tech is reshaping expectations in financial services. It was a privilege to help guide this conversation. Conversations like these are a reminder of the value of stepping back, asking better questions, and learning from peers who are shaping what comes next. Samir Kaji, Hana Yang, Raj Khathuria, Austen McGregor, Cooper J. Parks, Richard Carr

We’re hiring 🚀 At Allocate, we’re building the operating system for modern private market investing — built for those who demand clarity, efficiency, and integrity in every part of the process. We equip wealth advisory firms and institutional family offices to discover, invest, and manage high-quality private portfolios — seamlessly, securely, and at scale. Our mission is simple but ambitious: create a more accessible, responsible, and transparent private investing experience. If you care about solving hard problems, building with purpose, and delivering extreme client service — we’d love to meet you. Explore open roles at allocate.co/careers