Ryan Luby

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas worth reading. Its analysis on the relationship between government debt and longer term interest rates quantifies what many of us assume. They see each percentage point increase of debt (gdp ratio) pushing up long term rates by 3 basis points. That might not seem too bad, but keep in mind how much debt interest costs are rising and can squeeze the rest of the budget. https://lnkd.in/eBzVz9w4

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Business Insider published my conversation with Goldman Sachs' Kristin Kramer yesterday — the prime brokerage executive laid out how the SMA trend in hedge-fund world has changed the industry and what she's hearing from founders and big-name investors considering the structure. https://lnkd.in/dyjvDN_2

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Thanks to Paul Allen of Bloomberg for a discussion on fixed income this week. The market continues to watch the Fed's policy stance in the context of US labor markets and inflation data. While spreads are tight by historic standards, attractive yields continue to support allocation into #fixedincome, which offers both structural and tactical opportunities for investors. A slowing but resilient US economy, cooling inflation, trade policy clarity and supportive global monetary policy, with the Fed in "wait-and-see" mode, provide a constructive backdrop for fixed income. Diversification and total return opportunities exist in different pockets within global fixed income including #EMFixedIncome, #AsiaHighYield, local rates and securitized markets. https://lnkd.in/d3-efVzk

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Good summary from Ferdinand Niederhofer in the The Wall Street Journal on the opportunities the BXCI tech investing franchise is finding in the sector:     "Technology companies are looking to diversify their capital sources and debt is increasingly attractive as a nondilutive way to fund growth and lower the overall cost of capital... As companies scale and stay private for longer, we see significant opportunities to support high-quality businesses with flexible credit solutions, including on the larger end of the spectrum.” https://lnkd.in/e9_iTgEq

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Why “Downside Protection” ETFs Don’t Protect Portfolios As Well As A Stock-Bond Mix (In The Long Term): https://kitc.es/424lCRS In this article, Kitces Nerd Ben Henry-Moreland, CFP®, EA outlines how "Downside Protection" ETFs can serve a niche purpose, such as holding short-term funds earmarked for near-term goals where principal protection is critical and the investor is comfortable sacrificing upside. But they are not a true substitute for equity exposure, and their complexity can mask the relatively modest benefits they offer compared to more traditional fixed income strategies. #advicers

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Market watchers may be focused on NVIDIA, but I’m keeping my eye on the slowing market momentum and a potential pullback in the fall. I spoke with Matthew Miller and Katie Greifeld at Bloomberg Television Open Interest on why I remain bullish through the end of the decade. My advice to investors: Ride out the volatility in anticipation of more market highs to come. #BetOnYourself #SanctuaryDifference #Markets #Money #Investing

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When evaluating alternatives to enhance a traditional 60/40 portfolio structure, it's essential to thoughtfully rebalance equity and fixed income allocations in alignment with specific investment objectives. In the Q3 2025 Global Wealth Investment Playbook, my colleague Paula Campbell Roberts examines current asset allocation trends and analyzes how alternative investments can enhance portfolio construction and performance outcomes. Access the playbook highlights here: https://go.kkr.com/46HIYhG

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"We propose a new method for forecasting stock market returns in a data-rich environment... Rather than predicting returns directly, [it] decomposes them into three components: dividend-price ratio, earnings growth, and price-earnings multiple growth." https://lnkd.in/eygcexdw

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