Energy tech bets: Fusion and five other "fusion-level" opportunities

View profile for Andy Lubershane

Partner, Research at EIP

There are a very small number of energy technology bets one can make which truly qualify as "fusion-level". I'm going to be discussing six of them in a multi-part series, beginning with fusion itself. Spoiler: I think fusion is probably the least "fusion-level" among them! https://lnkd.in/gYFNtkmB

For me, the comparison technology for fusion should be coal, not fission. The technology for generating heat from coal is the simplest possible: grind up the coal and set it alight. Yet coal-fired power stations still costs around $5/watt before you even think about fuel supply. That's because of all the additional costs of boilers, turbines, generator, condenser etc, needed for the rankine cycle to operate. So, the absolute lower bound for fusion power is $5/W, before you begin to think about all the costs and complications of the reactor and fuel supply. Solar costs $1/W and falling. Yes, you need 5 watts of solar to generate 1 watt baseload. You then need to add a 15-hour battery at around $3/W. You then get something close to baseload output, at least in sunny regions, for a cost of around $8/W: something that fusion can only aspire to. At current trends, baseload solar will likely be below $5/W within a decade. Fusion has missed its chance.

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Guilherme (Gui) Larangeira

data-driven electrotech 🔌 | battery🔋energy storage systems (BESS)| Electricity infrastructure⚡️| data science | opinions my own!

1w

What else, flying cars?!

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