Some observations on Baltic ancillary market activations in August: 1) lots of curtailment of electricity production, represented by Down regulations (73 GWh of aFRR + mFRR) --> looks like electricity generation volume is consistently underestimated 2) mFRR Down is 5x of mFRR Up --> the forecast error causing overproduction was visible ~25 minutes before the beginning of a quarter hour, this is the time frame when TSO-s issue mFRR regulation commands 3) aFRR Up vs aFRR Down numbers are similar --> after TSO-s had balanced production and consumption using mFRR commands, production and consumption were roughly in balance as 4 second commands were issued roughly evenly in both directions. For me, the 60 GWh figure appears very large. I'll need to check further, what were the proportions in previous months.
Would be very interesting to see how many different actors are behind these numbers in LT and what would be the bid sizes of top 5 providers.
Ancillary feels generous here ~60 GWh parked in Down, mFRR Down 5x Up, aFRR just ping-ponging. More waste management than balancing, with a 25-minute optimism lag
It appears that the raw weather data coverage and weather forecast accuracy in the Baltics need to improve significantly. Or can these patterns be explained by some regulatory incentives? Or both?
The large curtailment and imbalance patterns suggest that improved forecasting and real-time adjustments could significantly reduce overproduction and optimize ancillary market activations in the Baltic region.
Augstsprieguma tīkls AS is now working on a new curtailement compensation mechanism, this might reduce demand for mFRR down.
Interesting indeed. Threw down some data over the last months, and added Finland to the mix for comparison.