Antony Martini’s Post

Europe’s aging burden far less than US or China! Graying Europe has long been considered an outlier in global demographics – but the rising cost to its governments in terms of bills for pensions and health care are more manageable than assumed and less than in rival economies in the United States and China. In a detailed report on the rising cost to the public purse from Europe’s aging population, Brussels-based think Breugel this week outlined the trajectory through 2070 using the latest country-by-country data from the European Commission. Familiar problems and necessary remedies recur – pressure on budgets caused by longer life spans, the need to raise retirement ages gradually and for better-funded pension and care systems and more targeted employment-based inward migration. Indeed one eye-catching line from the report is that it now looks likely that the baby boomer generation will have experienced longer retirement than either their parents or their children. But perhaps the most remarkable takeaway was how relatively contained Europe’s fiscal burden appears in aggregate. That’s not to put a gloss on a worrisome problem – one raising the prospect of falling workforces, weighing on the continent’s potential growth and with little hope of a reversal of alarming birth rate declines. But the context of where Europe fits into the global picture – at least in terms of its fiscal exposure – is certainly very different from prevailing gloomy narratives. Whether you’re looking to broaden your horizons or stay informed on the latest developments, “Viewpoint” is the perfect source for anyone seeking to engage with the issues that matter most. Breugel’s report calculates that on average the European Union’s 27 members’ aging-related costs will rise by just over 1 percent of gross domestic product over the next 45 years – with categories including pensions, long-term care, health care and education. Curiously but intuitively, the projected baby bust means falling education costs register as a saving for the whole bloc.

Longevity is rewriting the rules of growth. 🌍📈 Across the countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), populations are aging rapidly but longer lives can mean stronger economies. Our latest #BCG research shows how countries can turn demographic shifts into new sources of prosperity and well-being. In Germany, where one in three citizens will be over 65 by 2050, the right reforms could lift real GDP per capita growth from 0.6% to 1.1% per year and raise the national well-being index from 8.2 to 10.2 a gain of more than 40%. Key levers to unlock this potential: ➡️ Boost productivity through innovation and investment ➡️ Improve labor participation and job satisfaction ➡️ Promote healthy longevity and flexible work models ➡️ Strengthen family and social support systems 🔗 Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/dJfJUtDF #AgingEconomy #Germany #Wellbeing #PublicSector

Exciting news: Our latest 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗘𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 (𝗘𝗦𝗗𝗘) review is out! 📃🎉    In the 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱:    🔹 The EU real GDP growth slowed down to 0.2%.  🔹 Employment rate increased to 76.2%, moving closer to the 2030 target of 78.0% despite labour market tightness easing.  🔹 Social outcomes are improving but at a slower pace.      The review also examines 𝗮𝗱𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗨, and finds that:    🔹 In the last decade, this was the fastest growing household type, representing 37% of households in the EU in 2024.   🔹 They are more likely to live at the risk of poverty and feel lonely.   🔹 Young and older adults are more vulnerable, older women being particularly prone to loneliness-driven health issues.     📖 You can read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/dzi7Y32D   Many thanks to Elva Bova, Katarina Jaksic, and Nora Wukovits-Votzi, PhD for overseeing this work! And thanks to Sarah Aade and Valerio Fusco for their analysis of recent economic and social developments! 

We're using smart data to go beyond national averages and understand regional trends in economic wellbeing. Updated to August 2025, the Economic Nowcast tracks how people are earning and spending across England, Wales and Scotland. 💡 Whilst average incomes shrank by 1.53% last month, the picture was not the same across Great Britain. 👛 Scotland saw the smallest decline, at just 0.13% or £84 over the year. However, England and Wales saw bigger fluctuation with English incomes falling by 1.95% (£340 over the year) and those in Wales losing £522 a year (3.13%) on the previous month. At the same time, the proportion of people spending more than their income increased by 1% nationally but the regional breakdown shows a more complex picture. The proportion of the Scottish population living beyond their means actually fell by 0.2%, in contrast to England (up 1.2%) and Wales (up 1.3%). Explore the Nowcast here: https://bit.ly/4mSkRmf #economicwellbeing #economicnowcast #nowcasting #economictrends #smartdata #financialdata

In 2022, France ranked 23rd in the world in our Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index (https://lnkd.in/dj54diAQ). It performs well on life expectancy, income, environment, and happiness. But when it comes to workspan (broadly the number of years people work as adults) the picture changes dramatically. France ranks 114th globally, with an average workspan of just 28.09 years. That’s a modest improvement from 2019 (27.64 years, ranked 119th), but still well below the UK average of 31.1 years. Workspan is a key driver of economic resilience in ageing societies. And in France, reform is hard. Fragmented politics, weak government majorities, and the rise of both far-right and far-left parties make consensus elusive. Fiscal pressures from ageing, austerity, and unpopular spending cuts add to the challenge - especially when pension age increases spark widespread unrest. As John Burn-Murdoch recently noted, French pensioners now have higher incomes than working-age adults. That’s economically troubling, especially given the “retirement consumption puzzle”: older people tend to underconsume relative to their wealth, in France as in the UK. France isn’t alone. Italy faces similar demographic headwinds. Despite a long-lived population, Italy performs even worse on workspan. Its large informal economy (around 31% of GDP) likely hides higher levels of work though - but also complicates policy responses. France may be in better health than the UK. It has lower obesity rates, stronger access to core health services, and seemingly better outcomes for major conditions like heart attacks and strokes. France must find a way to extend workspan, tackle intergenerational wealth inequality, and boost productivity. But with political paralysis, it’s hard to see how. Without reform, economic growth will slow - and France’s position may begin to slide. The UK faces a different, but equally urgent challenge. We also need to extend workspan - ideally to closer to 34 years - but poor health is a major barrier. That means serious investment in prevention and health improvement. Right now, we have a government with a majority. It’s a majority they need to use. Without bravery - and a willingness to take unpopular decisions - we risk our own kind of paralysis. Not unlike France. International Longevity Centre - UK Arunima H. Ben Franklin

Some say Europe is dying. Yes, we have urgent work ahead to accelerate growth and competitiveness, but that is not the whole story. Over the past decade, the US economy has outperformed Europe in GDP per capita growth. Many equate this with higher prosperity. Yet GDP per capita is an average; it hides inequality. To understand how people actually live, the median income matters more. And when we look at median income, the US no longer leads. Today, median income in the US is roughly comparable to that of Austria. While the US ranks among the richest countries in terms of average wealth per capita, median wealth - the wealth of a typical adult - tells another story. In 2023, median wealth per capita in the US stood at USD 117k, comparable to Spain or Italy. It was 19% lower than in France, 29% lower than in the UK, and 42% lower than in Denmark. And prosperity is not just economic. In the US, suicide rates among teens and young adults are three times higher than in the EU. Since 2000, US suicide rates have risen, while in Europe they have fallen. The recent increase in the US has been driven by an especially sharp spike among preteens. While American life expectancy has fallen to 79, most Europeans live to 82 or more. While 40% of Americans have no access to affordable healthcare, every European has it by right. While US workers average 1,800 hours a year, Norwegians, Swiss, and French work 20% less - and are more productive per hour. Yes, we must fix our economy and strengthen competitiveness. But as we do, we should not forget what we have already achieved - a model of prosperity, dignity, and wellbeing that works for many, not just for a few. Sources in comments

Europe is not dying. Our GDP not being as high as the US is the product of a choice: redistribution of wealth, well-being of our population, and workers rights. Those choices have not made normal Europeans poorer: US Median wealth per capita is comparable to Spain or Italy. But Life Expectancy, health outcomes, and mental health are all better in Europe. We work less and are often more productive per hour worked. Our model is the right one, we can work on reducing bureaucracy, improving capital markets, and improving our competitiveness, but we shouldn't abandon our values just to bump a GDP number that doesn't reflect people's lived experiences.

Interesting chart on US and global life expectancy v Health expenditure. The global relationship between how much a country spends on healthcare and how long its citizens live is often straightforward, generally more spending correlates with a longer life expectancy. Yet, one nation stands as a profound outlier: the United States. The United States is Spending the Most, Living the Least The US healthcare system presents a paradox when compared to other large, wealthy nations. The US consistently devotes the largest portion of its economy to health, spending nearly double the per capita amount of its peers. Recent data estimates US health expenditure at over $13,400 per person, far surpassing the average for comparable high-income countries. Despite this massive financial investment, the US has the lowest life expectancy among these peer nations, currently lagging by over four years. While other countries have seen steady gains in longevity, US life expectancy growth has stagnated for years. The resulting picture is a dramatic curve where, on a global chart, the US appears isolated while spending the most money for the poorest return on life years. This gap is not primarily due to the US receiving better care but simply paying higher prices for everything from drugs and hospital visits to administrative overhead. Furthermore, the absence of universal health coverage leaves large segments of the population without timely, preventative care. Crucially, health outcomes are also undermined by significant societal factors that healthcare spending alone cannot fix, such as higher rates of obesity and chronic disease and, significantly higher mortality from drug overdoses and violence (homicides and road accidents). In conclusion the high-income world has a clear correlation between health investment and longevity, but the US shows that pouring money into a high-cost, fragmented system does not guarantee positive public health results.

The longevity economy isn’t only about healthcare — it’s about business models that link economic security, culture, and health. And those who build them will lead a $15 trillion market by 2050. 📊 By 2050: – 1 in 6 people will be over 65 – Life expectancy ≈ 77 years Healthy ageing depends as much on financial preparedness as it does on medicine. When systems rely on out-of-pocket spending, older adults delay care, lose autonomy, and costs rise. Yet most strategies copy Western institutional models — ignoring local cultural frameworks. In much of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, family enterprises and informal careers still act as safety nets. Concepts like Ubuntu (“I am because we are”) place elders as mentors and mediators, not dependents. 🔑 Three tangible opportunities: - Financial tools for informal workers — pensions, micro-insurance, savings - Support systems for caregivers — tech, services, and incentives - Culturally aligned care models — family succession, community clinics, intergenerational housing “Healthy ageing is the next frontier of resilience.” At Kaleidoscope, we help executives and investors translate demographic shifts into scalable, sustainable business models. #LongevityEconomy #HealthyAgeing #FutureOfWork #InclusiveFinance #EmergingMarkets #CultureAndCare #Sustainability

Connecting with others is fundamental to #wellbeing, health, employment and civic engagement. While social connections are generally strong across OECD countries, the OECD - OCDE WISE Centre’s new report, Social Connections and Loneliness in OECD Countries, shows that gaps remain. Older people, those who live alone, and those with fewer socio-economic resources face the greatest vulnerability. For example: ➡️ People who are unemployed or have lower incomes are around twice as likely to report feeling lonely ➡️ People who live alone are 1.5 times more dissatisfied with their relationships ➡️ The elderly are more socially isolated: 11% say they never meet friends in person in a typical year, more than double the rate of the general population The #socialconnections of these groups need attention amid demographic transitions such as ageing populations and the rise of single-person households. Discover more insights into the state of social connections through this new analysis that provides a comprehensive view of connection, isolation and loneliness across OECD countries, identifies newly emerging at-risk groups – including men and young people – and explores the policy implications of these trends: 👉 https://lnkd.in/e_tyyw6V