UN Day: Global Conflict Risks Rise Amid Economic Protectionism

Today's "UN Day" marks the eight decades since the United Nations was founded to support international cooperation. Yet the next decade poses severe headwinds in rising global conflict and skepticism toward global institutions. Since 2008's global financial crisis, global average conflict risk has risen 5.4%, an unprecedented 94 countries now face less peaceful conditions, and geopolitical fragmentation has skyrocketed. Global defense spending has risen to a record $2.7 trillion in 2024, now consuming 2.5% of world GDP. Economic protectionism and trade restrictions are also on the rise. More extreme fragmentation could threaten economic stability and growth. A world split into isolated blocks could reduce global GDP by 3.6% in the short term and increase inflation by 3.5% according to the World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman — a stark reminder of what's at stake. Even when unity feels distant, international dialogue and cooperation are essential. Whether through the UN or other mechanisms, the world will benefit immensely from economic and military de-escalation wherever it can be achieved. Find out more: https://bit.ly/4npQ5lc

Today’s "UN Day" marks eight decades since the United Nations was founded to foster international cooperation. Yet the next decade poses major headwinds — from rising conflict to growing skepticism toward global institutions. A world split into isolated blocs could shrink global GDP by 3.6% and raise inflation by 3.5%, according to the World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman — a stark reminder of what’s at stake. The world stands to gain immensely from reducing economic and military tensions wherever possible. Hat tip to Daniel Tannebaum for leading our report on navigating global financial system fragmentation.

Following this year’s UN General Assembly, our experts analysed the issues world leaders picked out and what their remarks say about shifting diplomatic attention to major crises. The UN is still a place where global commitments and important diplomacy can still happen with more than 190 world leaders coming to New York for the high-level debate at last month’s UNGA. From issues of peace and security to climate change and artificial intelligence, they used the platform as an opportunity to discuss an array of domestic and international concerns. They also found a struggling organisation confronting major political and financial headwinds. Institutional reform cut across discussions with the next UN Secretary-General likely to face the challenge of seeing through difficult reforms shaping how the UN engages with crises around the world. Looking at 191 speeches delivered, our analysts identified trends in how leaders referenced four prominent peace and security issues. Our latest commentary unpacks what dominated global concerns. https://lnkd.in/dZzPCwnx

For years, I've researched what I call "the market of pain"—the uncomfortable truth that human suffering operates within a hierarchy, and we all participate in constructing it, whether we acknowledge it or not. This analysis of 191 speeches from the UN General Assembly provides empirical evidence of exactly that hierarchy in action. 🌍 When world leaders gather at UNGA, their choice of which crises to emphasize—and which to omit—reveals the brutal calculus of global attention. Some conflicts become headline issues; others fade into footnotes. Some humanitarian emergencies mobilize resources and diplomatic capital; others struggle for even rhetorical acknowledgment. 📊 The patterns identified in these speeches don't just reflect neutral diplomatic priorities. They shape international responses, funding flows, media coverage, and ultimately, which populations receive solidarity and which face abandonment. The "market of pain" operates through these very mechanisms—where visibility equals value, and silence equals erasure. 💭 As the UN faces institutional reform under new leadership, perhaps the most critical question isn't just how the organization responds to crises, but which crises it chooses to prioritize and why. Understanding these patterns of attention—and our complicity in maintaining them—is essential for anyone committed to a more just global order. ⚖️ The data matters. The gaps matter more. 🔍

🌍 How can multilateralism help us achieve the deep changes needed to reduce interconnected risks? In the latest #ScienceTalks, Zita Sebesvari speaks with Daniel Naujoks from Columbia University about global cooperation and transformation. 🎥 Watch now: https://lnkd.in/eKPWh43P

🇺🇸 Less than a year into Donald Trump's second term, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁. While a complete rupture between the US and Europe has not taken place, transatlantic trust has been shattered. ⚠️ 𝗛𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝘂𝗻𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗲𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗮𝗹𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽. The effects are visible across policy fields: from defence and support to Ukraine, to China strategy, countering disinformation, tech and climate action. 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁 — 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗻𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁. In 11 distinct chapters, our 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘁 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿 tackles the following topics: ➡️ How the erosion of trust has 𝘂𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗱𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 of the transatlantic relationship. 🔸 What has changed? 🔸 What strategic debates have emerged? 🔸 How should Europe's relationship with the US evolve in a low-trust environment? ➡️ How 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 have coped with similar breaches of trust. 🔸 Did they experience the same feeling of broken trust as Europe? 🔸 Did they see it coming, and were they more prepared? 🔸 What should Europe learn from them, and how can it present itself as a useful partner in these uncertain times? 💬 "𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘰𝘯𝘦-𝘰𝘧𝘧 𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘴: 𝘜𝘚-𝘌𝘶𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘷𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦. 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘌𝘜 𝘮𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘰𝘱𝘵 𝘢 𝘥𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘢𝘤𝘩, 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘣𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘮𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘷𝘰𝘪𝘥 𝘢 𝘳𝘶𝘱𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦, 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘤 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥 𝘌𝘶𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘯 𝘭𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘶𝘱𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘴." 🔗 Download and read the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/eXEBqiNY By Giuseppe Spatafora, Ph.D., Steven Everts and Alice Ekman. With contributions from Leonardo De Agostini, Lizza Bomassi, Clotilde Bomont, PhD, Ondrej Ditrych, Caspar Hobhouse, Rossella Marangio, Ph.D., Luigi Scazzieri, Dr Katarzyna Sidło and Bojana Zoric, PhD.

China’s geopolitical competition with the West is rapidly expanding into new domains Beijing identifies as crucial to its strategic ambitions – 🌌outer space, the ❄️polar regions, 🖥️cyberspace and the 🌊deep sea. On its road to becoming a global power, Beijing is expanding its dual-use presence in new strategic frontiers, writes Helena Legarda Herranz, Head of Program Foreign Relations at MERICS, in a new analysis for the EU-funded project China Horizons – Research Consortium. And China is not doing so alone: Russia has emerged as a key partner for China’s ambitions in these spheres. Key findings from the analysis: 🀄𝗕𝗲𝗶𝗷𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 “𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀” 𝗮𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗯𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 at the expense of Western countries, from military capabilities to global governance. 🛰️𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮’𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝘂𝗮𝗹-𝘂𝘀𝗲. Science-led, civilian activities are always accompanied by work to secure military advantages and develop new military capabilities it can deploy in case of conflict. 🤝𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝘀 𝗕𝗲𝗶𝗷𝗶𝗻𝗴’𝘀 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗵𝗼𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗴𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. Its substantial presence in the Arctic and space, often complementary to China’s capabilities, includes a strong – if aging – space program, sovereign rights in Arctic regions, access to the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and a big network of Arctic infrastructure and military facilities. ❗𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮’𝘀 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗺𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗿𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. China’s ambitions and activities in these new frontiers pose clear challenges to European interests, security, values and future economic development. You can read the report "𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗿𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰, 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲-𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 - 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝗷𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀" on our website. In a new episode of the MERICS China 🎙️Podcast, Helena discusses the key findings. Links in first comment. ⬇️

Merics key findings: China’s geopolitical competition with the West is rapidly expanding into new domains such as the polar regions, space, cyberspace and the deep sea. Russia has emerged as a key partner for China’s ambitions in these spheres. External narratives depict Beijing’s activities within a “win-win”, multilateral approach to the global commons. But internal Chinese writings frame them in a more geopolitical and security-first way: they call for China to establish dominance in these domains and to develop the military capabilities necessary to defend its interests. China’s ambitions and activities in these new frontiers pose clear challenges to European interests, security, values and future economic development. For Europe, China’s footprint in the Arctic and space demands urgent attention. Beijing views the “strategic new frontiers” as providing new opportunities to advance its objective of expanding its global influence at the expense of Western countries, from military capabilities to global governance.

This is precisely why Center for Air and Space Law at the University of Mississippi is offering a new class next spring focused on Chinese ambitions including influence building in outer space and outer space law. We're calling it Space Race 2.0 and aim to borrow from terrestrial examples to understand how to compete in this new strategic frontier. #ItsARace

🌍 The Transatlantic Partnership: Not All Has Been Lost The transatlantic relationship faces unprecedented challenges — from geopolitical competition to technological transformation and economic shifts. But it remains a cornerstone of democracy, security, and prosperity. 💭💡In his latest commentary, Dr. Peter Hefele of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies shares 9 reflections on how Europe and the U.S. can rebuild trust, strengthen cooperation, and tackle shared challenges together. 🇪🇺🤝🇺🇸 From confronting authoritarian powers to advancing technology and the green transition, he lays out a way forward for transatlantic relations. 🔗 Link in the comments. #TransatlanticPartnership #Europe #US #Strategy #Conservatism #Geopolitics #EPP #Transatlanticism