Methanol’s Surprise Rise & Hydrogen’s Decline In Dutch Scenarios At the end of my engagement with TenneT, the Dutch transmission system operator, I sat down with colleagues from the 2050 target grid scenario workshops to reflect on what we had uncovered. CleanTechnica transcript: https://lnkd.in/gs4S-9Jw Apple: https://lnkd.in/gWD-X3nB Spotify: https://lnkd.in/gPCmjtz3 We dug into everything from the role of building fabric in electrification, to the economics of steel decarbonization, to what fuels shipping and aviation will actually use. The conversations were sharp and sometimes contentious, but that’s where the most valuable insights come from. What stood out for me was how consistently the economics knocked the shine off hydrogen. Whether it was Tata Steel’s ambitions, offshore electrolysis schemes, or the question of what powers trucks and ships, the conclusion was the same. Electrification wins first, and wins more broadly than most still expect. In the Netherlands’ case, hydrogen demand fell by 80% compared to today, and nuclear faded out of the picture as well. Biomethanol surprised me by emerging as the likely shipping fuel of the future, but even there, the pressure of cheap electrons will drive hybridization and greater battery use. This kind of work matters because it cuts through slogans and forces hard trade-offs into the open. Europe won’t be producing competitive virgin steel from hydrogen, but it will remain a hub for specialty steels, scrap recycling, and electric arc furnaces. Fertilizer will import ammonia. Aviation will outcompete shipping for sustainable fuels, while shipping electrifies faster than many expect. These conclusions weren’t driven by ideology but by looking at costs, technology readiness, and regional realities. Thanks to Paul Martin of Spitfire Research Inc. Research and Emiel van Druten of TenneT for their candor, and to Johnny Nijenhuis for lending us his podcast studio. This episode of Redefining Energy Tech is the second half of our conversation. It’s available now wherever you listen.
The world is still in the deception phase where fossil fuels are compared only by their upfront costs (CAPEX) instead of continuing costs (OPEX). Like an apartment building, upfront costs (CAPEX) are amortized (spread) over the life of the building. Tenant rents (OPEX) are what brings in money to pay off the building’s debt. Few businesses use only upfront costs for assessing true costs. But utilities do. Most use LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity/Energy) to compare these two. LCOE includes both upfront and continuing components. Soon economics will catch up. Continuing costs are just as important as upfront costs and fossil fuelers are losing that battle.
Regarding shipping, what do you expect to be the range limit for fully electric ships, such as ferries?
The reality is renewable methanol is cost effective to produce, simple transport using existing infrastructure and tankers, and to refuel.
I’ve already listened to this conversation three times..and I’m still hooked. The Netherlands may be close to the Czech Republic, but in terms of decarbonization it has already moved miles ahead. What I admire most is the tone: not just pragmatic, but truly practical. Realism at its best – focusing on solutions that actually work. It inspired me so much that I’m planning to write my own post about it here on Czech LinkedIn
The best part about what is happening in the discours at the moment is that finally P50 and P90 are closing - the dreaming and the hot air can go out. In any case we should end up with a system that is driven by LCOE rather than (politics driven) market dynamics. However, for energy companies low return predictable business is no future. Pension funds are better equipped once we get there.
📌 Michael, this aligns closely with what we’re unpacking across African markets. Once you strip away the slogans, hydrogen’s economics rarely seem to hold, while electrification consistently wins on scalability and cost as you say. Methanol is rising in shipping here too, especially where agri-based feedstocks can be mobilized at scale. At Fio Capital we’re structuring projects that bridge these realities — from renewable-driven electrification for industry and mining, to biofuel pathways that serve shipping and aviation. Different geographies may move at different speeds, but the fundamentals of physics and economics remain universal.
It is in line with my thoughts, based on the work of EnergyVille in Belgium, a country very comparable to the Netherlands. The specifics about the choices for shipping and aviation are interesting, since there currently is some more uncertainty. So thank you for this analysis ( also for daring to say that some industries like virgin steel production do not have a future in Europe, at least North-Western Europe; many researchers don’t dare to go that far).
My understanding is that some green hydrogen would be used in the production of green biomethanol. Is that not the case here?
Sid they discuss the role of sails aka wind energy?
Working on local climate policy
1moEmiel van Druten Superinteressant. Zijn de scenario's ook ergens te bekijken?