David Sánchez’s Post

Germany will need over four million additional workers by 2028, according to the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. With an aging population, the country’s economic stability and social systems – including pensions – will increasingly depend on well-managed labor migration. Our Commission’s final report highlights how closely foreign and domestic policy are intertwined. Labor and skilled migration are not only key to Germany’s economic resilience, but also shaping equitable international partnerships: https://lnkd.in/dFHb4gJV At yesterday’s Global Perspectives Circle on labor migration, we launched the first in a series of deep dives into the Commission’s key topics and recommendations. We presented our new discussion paper, developed with the Berlin-Institute for Population and Development, which takes a closer look at labor migration from the perspective of young adults from different African countries, testing how proposed approaches align with lived realities and aspirations. Thank you to our speakers Janina Kugel, Holger Kolb, Khurram Masood, Emma Felsenstein, Claudia Langer, David Manicom, Mona Iddrisu, and Catherina Hinz. Fotos: Santiago Tascón #GermanyAndTheGlobalSouth

50 years in 50 facts Since 2017, both unemployment and long-term unemployment have been falling across most EU Member States. However, a few countries saw an increase: 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, and 🇱🇺 Luxembourg recorded higher unemployment rates, while 🇸🇪 Sweden experienced a rise in both unemployment and long-term unemployment. Read more about convergence trends in the EU in the Policy Brief by Massimiliano Mascherini 'From Gothenburg to Porto: Upward convergence through the European Pillar of Social Rights': https://ow.ly/YFvb50X7Tyq

Big Changes for Spain's Autónomos? The government has proposed raising social security payments starting January 2026. The Numbers: Increases could range from €11 up to €206 per month. Some might see a jump of up to 35%. Monthly payments depend on real income, with current brackets ranging from €217 to €796. This change could push the top end higher. Who's Affected? Millions, including 490,717 foreign autónomos and many Spanish nationals. Why the Change? The government often frames these adjustments as necessary to make the system fairer (contributions based on actual earnings) and sustainable, ensuring funds for pensions and benefits. However, this comes after a major system overhaul just a couple of years ago. The self-employed association (ATA) called it a "sablazo" – a big blow. Understandable, right? Especially with inflation and high living costs squeezing budgets. From my experience, while aligning contributions to real income sounds logical, sudden big jumps can seriously impact cash flow for freelancers and small businesses. An extra €200+ monthly isn't small change. It might even discourage people from starting their own businesses here. Compared to some EU neighbours, Spain's system for autónomos is often seen as complex and costly, particularly at the lower income levels. This proposed hike adds to that perception. What's your take? Is this a necessary adjustment or too much, too soon? #Spain #SelfEmployed #Business #Economy #Freelancer Follow me here on LinkedIn Andrew Dremin, Subscribe to my "Global signals" newsletter: https://lnkd.in/dmfZVCYf

Possible 'Turkey cancels Christmas' news but there was an interesting talent/employment article in The Economist. It's true that Europe is falling behind the US in economic growth (roughly equal economies in 2010, the US is now almost double the size). One of the proposed causes is relative labour market inequality / innovation / productivity caused by Europeans staying at their current employers too long. If you can't access the article / it's too long to read then my takeaways were: 💼 Labour markets function best when they match workers with appropriate jobs for their skills. 📉 European unemployment down from 12% in 2013 to 6% today, (relatively strong conditions to move jobs with less risk). 👥 1 in 4 Europeans have been with their current employer for more than 20 years, double our US counterparts. 🔁 Apart from the economic benefit of skill/knowledge transfer, employees are massively losing out. 💰 Workers can expect an average pay increase of 10% when they move jobs, compared to an annualised 1% raise by staying. So... if you're looking for a new energy transition related job in Europe - check out the Piper Maddox website. https://lnkd.in/eGA6n9aq

A recent study in the journal Nature found that the primary reason for the immigrant-native wage gap is not necessarily discrimination in pay for the same work, but rather structural barriers that limit immigrants' access to higher-paying jobs and firms in the first place. This research indicates that new immigrants earn about 17.9% less than native-born workers on average across nine countries, primarily because they are concentrated in lower-paying industries, occupations, and companies (75% of the gap). Only a smaller portion of the gap is due to pay inequality for the same job (about 25% or 4.6%). The gap narrows significantly for the second generation, and varies by country, with the U.S. having one of the smaller gaps (10.6%) and Spain and Canada having larger ones (29.9% and 27.5%, respectively). https://lnkd.in/gejBTKpE

42 countries are shrinking in 2025. Europe leads the race to decline. For decades, population growth signaled prosperity. Now, decline is the new reality-at scale, and with consequences that reach far beyond demographics. Here’s what the numbers reveal: → 42 countries and territories are contracting, with the steepest drops in Eastern Europe: Kosovo (−9.69%), Moldova (−2.83%), North Macedonia (−1.97%). → Emigration is the engine: talent flows to higher wages and deeper job markets in Western Europe, accelerated by EU labor mobility and wage gaps. → Low fertility and ageing compound the trend. Fewer births, delayed family formation, and high living costs mean fewer people of childbearing age-and less room to rebound. → Large economies now join the list. Germany, Japan, China, and Italy show small percentage dips, but on a vast base, the impact on growth, labor, savings, and innovation is outsized. Why does this matter for business and policy? → Labor: Tighter talent pools drive up hiring costs and push firms toward automation and new training strategies. → Demand: Ageing populations shift spending toward healthcare, savings, and services, changing the shape of entire markets. → Public finance: Fewer workers must support rising pension and health bills-raising the stakes for reform. → Competitiveness: Countries that align migration, skills, and family policy can gain a strategic edge. What are governments doing? Attempts range from Japan’s Children & Families Agency to China’s childcare subsidies. But so far, no single solution works. Durable progress means bundling childcare, housing, work-family balance, and career security. The bottom line: Decline is not destiny. Places that align policy, migration, and innovation can still shape their future. How do you see population decline reshaping Europe’s economic landscape?

It is surprisingly hard to see the impact of social policies and campaigns at a population level. Even the best become blurred and muddied by the complex galaxies in which they exist. But every now and then, if you look carefully, you get a clear glimpse. The UK’s Real Living Wage may be one example. Each year the Living Wage Foundation publish their estimate of the minimum amount someone needs to live a decent and dignified life, given the current cost of living (in the UK). As you may imagine, it is always a bit more than the National Living Wage (the legal minimum amount someone over 21 can be paid). The trick – it turns out many businesses will voluntarily commit to this higher wage. Perhaps they want to virtue signal? Perhaps they want their employees to live a tolerable standard of life? Either way, it means more money to the lowest paid among us. 16,000 businesses have signed up so far. Now look at this… Completely independent of the Living Wage Foundation and the Real Living Wage, the Office for National Statistics run a nationwide survey that asks people about their hourly pay. This graph below shows the proportion of all employees in the UK that are paid within 20p of each number along the bottom axis. The dark blue line is 2023, the light blue line is 2024. In both years you get a tall peak on the left. This coincides with the National Living Wage (the legal one). A lot of people are paid this ... it’s the bare minimum. But now that rare glimpse of special something. Just to the right of this, in both years there is a second peak. Slightly smaller, but a peak nonetheless. This coincides with… you guessed it… the Real Living Wage. This small bump on the graph represents something between £500 and £1,000 a year, every year, to tens of thousands of low-income people, likely because of a social campaign and a voluntary response. The impact is so large that, figuratively speaking, you can see it from outer space. Wonderful. Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) UCL Institute of Health Equity New Economics Foundation The graph is taken from here: https://lnkd.in/e8mNZb2v

📊 Q2 2025 reports show a high commitment to standard working hours in Romania and a low prevalence of part-time or flexible employment. This suggests a traditional work culture and economic necessity driving full-time participation, excluding key potential groups that can be integrated into our national labor force. In highly developed economies, the labor market offers diverse, adaptable forms of employment that reflect workers’ life stages, personal choices, and productivity patterns.    𝐅𝐈𝐂 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: ✅ To meet the demand for labor and attract the inactive population, Romania should make labor legislation more flexible, adopting new forms of employment adapted to modern economic realities. By the introduction of flexible contracts, such as on-demand, zero-hours contracts and teleworking, encouragement of the gig economy, as well as facilitation of part-time and fixed-term work, the labor market would become more inclusive and adaptable. These measures would boost the employment of parents, students, the elderly, and others who need more autonomy, thus helping to reduce labor shortages and increase economic competitiveness. ✅ Special programs should be developed dedicated to supporting the integration into the labour market of people able to work from families benefiting from social assistance, including professional training and personalised support services, to increase their chances of employment and facilitate the achievement of a guaranteed minimum income. 🌐 Explore more in the 𝐅𝐈𝐂 𝐖𝐡𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐁𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓 – 𝐇𝐮𝐦𝐚𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞 chapter: https://lnkd.in/dmnbTaTw

Are We Creating a 'Lost Generation'? Inside the UK's Youth Employment Crisis Since the 2024 general election, we've seen a pretty significant drop in youth employment. Nearly 200,000 young workers have vanished from UK payrolls, with the sharpest declines among under-18s. It's not just the youngest, though the 25-34 and 18-24 age groups have taken a hit too. The numbers are a bit stark, to be honest. Youth unemployment's now over 14%, which is more than triple the overall rate. Every region in Great Britain's feeling it, with Wales and London hit hardest. Now, it's not all doom and gloom. Employment among mid-career and older workers has actually grown. Could this be seen as a positive? Experienced workers staying in or returning to work, potentially bringing valuable skills and knowledge to the table, or they’re struggling with the cost of living and subsequently making decisions to earn more? But here's the thing: while it's great that older workers are finding opportunities, we can't ignore the potential long-term consequences of youth unemployment. We're talking about lower lifetime earnings, reduced well-being, and persistent skills gaps. Some business groups are even warning of a "lost generation" if we don't address this soon. So what's behind all this? Well, it's a bit of a perfect storm, really. There's been a sharp increase in minimum wage for younger workers, which sounds good on paper, but it's closed the wage gap between older and younger workers. This might be making employers think twice about hiring inexperienced youth. Then we've got the economic headwinds, especially in the private sector, which have hit entry-level roles hard. These are the jobs typically filled by young workers. And let's not forget the reports of rising age discrimination. Nearly all surveyed young people say they've experienced negative treatment in the workplace. That’s disheartening. On the flip side, the public sector's expanding and public pay is outpacing private pay. But opportunities for young people in growth sectors still seem limited. It's a complex issue, and I think it's important we look at it from all angles. Yes, we want to support our experienced workers, but we also need to ensure we're not leaving our youth behind. The rise in young people not in education, employment, or training (NEET) is particularly concerning. It's the second highest hit in a decade 12.8% (the first 2015 13.2%), with mental health increasingly cited as a barrier. So, what's the way forward? I reckon it's going to take some serious collaboration between government and business to address these barriers to youth employment. We need targeted support measures and a real commitment to creating opportunities for young people. If we don't invest in them now, we might all pay the price later. What are your thoughts? #YouthUnEmployment #UKManufacturing #UKSmallBusinesses Sam Baynham Andrea Wilson Ruth Forster Amy Foster Mandeep Sandhu Laura Giddings

Foreign citizens living in Sweden are almost 3 times more likely to be unemployed than Swedish citizens in Sweden. This is according to 2024 data from Eurostat, referring to people age 20-64. For Swedish citizens, the unemployment rate was 6.0%, but it was 17.8% for citizens of a foreign country living in Sweden. But looking closer at that 17.8%, the unemployment rate also changes depending on where the foreign citizenship is from. Non-Swedish citizens of the EU had an 8.2% unemployment rate, just 1.3 times that of Swedish citizens. For non-EU citizens, on the other hand, the unemployment rate was 22.7%. That’s almost 4 times the rate for Swedish citizens. This isn’t a new phenomenon: among EU countries, Sweden has had the highest level of unemployment for non-EU citizens since 2020 – and has been in the top 3 for this stat for every year since 2015. The comparison doesn’t get much better when you broaden out to look at unemployment for all foreign citizens. For this stat, Sweden ranks the highest in 2024 and 2023, and remains in the top 4 since 2015. Statistics like this are a stark reminder of how important it is to work towards a more inclusive and integrated labour market, one where everyone can contribute and thrive, regardless of their citizenship. Stay tuned for part two, where we’ll talk about rates of overqualification for those who are employed. In the meantime, what do you think can be done to better support foreign jobseekers, especially those from outside the EU? (Source: Eurostat lfsa_urgan, 2024) #DiversityAndInclusion #Unemployment #Sverige