The Choice: A New Deal for Farmers – or Spiralling Food Inflation

This month was full of remarkable findings:

• The UN Secretary-General’s draft 2025 report on progress against the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals indicates the world is on track or making moderate progress towards just 35% of the 137 SDG targets with available data, whereas progress is deemed “insufficient” for 47% of the targets. Most notably, on 18% of the targets the world has regressed and fallen behind the 2015 baseline. Moreover, the trend of regression will continue as recent cuts in funding for ODA and UN institutions, defunding of climate commitments, and other impactful measures will at most show superficially in the 2025 report (although the results already reflect the effects of the pandemic and major conflicts characterizing the multi-crisis).
• The World Meteorological Organization predicts with 80% certainty that record-breaking heat will continue, with global average temperatures likely exceeding 1.5°C and potentially reaching up to 2°C, even without a strong El Niño effect driving the increase.
• In a first-of-its-kind study modelling planetary boundaries across future climate action scenarios, researchers led by Professor Johan Rockström, co-director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, found: “With current trends and policies, the situation is projected to worsen to 2050 for all planetary boundaries, except for ozone depletion”. The study also concluded climate change is expected to enter the “high risk” zone by 2030 and worsen dramatically by 2050.
• Based on the business-as-usual scenario in emissions increase, a team led by Shalini Unnikrishnan from BCG concludes that agricultural productivity across 15 major crops will fall by more than 10% by 2050. At the same time, however, by 2050, we need to increase food output by more than 50% to meet demand based on today’s consumption patterns.

These individuals and institutions have all significantly influenced this newsletter series, which is inspired by our journey towards meeting the UN Global Goals on Sustainable Development. I revere the UN World Meteorological Organization for upholding a gold standard in climate science and hosting the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) despite a continuous onslaught from climate change deniers. Johan Rockström’s wisdom, insights, and leadership across a wide array of topics from water to biodiversity and climate is indispensable for decision makers around the world. And I still have to come across a stronger expert at the intersection of climate and food systems in the global consultancy world than Shalini Unnikrishnan.

Their work is even more vital as efforts continue in Washington, DC, to sanitize language by replacing terms like “climate” with dissembling verbiage such as “extreme weather”. Even if I wanted to pander to the politics of this stonewalling, I could not. The evidence is too stark: in addition to the findings I mention above, Europe is experiencing one of the most severe droughts in its recent history, a record-breaking number of forest fires are burning worldwide in 2025, and devastating tornadoes are ripping through the U.S. Midwest, where many of my Bayer colleagues and friends live. These events demand candid recognition of what they truly represent, not diluted terminology.

In the same vein, it pains me to see a small but increasing number of my respected colleagues and friends, who lead sustainability at other companies, reversing ambitious climate targets – a volte-face that contradicts their personal understanding of the world our grandchildren will inherit. Climate change will continue irrespective of the language we use to describe it.

Progress on renewable energy must inspire progress elsewhere

Given the slowdown in climate action, a major retreat from commitments to overseas development aid, the end of globalization and beginning of fragmentation – hallmarks of what some see as Cold War II – the framework conditions for progress are shifting.

As the world experiences a power realignment, I believe we must focus our efforts on the bright spots – like the progress in renewable energies. Between 2015 and 2023, renewable energy capacity more than doubled, and while coal-fired power generation also rose slightly in this period (by around 5%), it is nearing its peak. Today, global consumption of renewable and coal-based electricity is roughly equal. Given the disruptive momentum of renewables, I remain optimistic that electrification will become a transformative force, with a higher share of electricity in the overall economy fuelled by abundant and cheap renewable energy.

For the food system, however, the picture is currently much less rosy. To fix it, we need to tackle three critical issues: conflicts, climate, and consumption. Conflicts both hot (wars) and cold (trade disruptions) are exerting significant pressure. Climate change and nature degradation are, as Shalini Unnikrishnan shows, set to reduce the efficiency and effectiveness of food supply chains. Consumption is on the rise due to population growth, rising affluence, and urbanization – all of which accelerate demand for food, fibres, animal feed, chemical feedstocks and fuels.

The solutions for climate-resilient farming

The Rockström team’s study confirms that policies can slow environmental degradation and bring boundaries back down to 2015 values – but they must exceed the ambition of the Paris Agreement. Transformative measures are needed instead: shifting towards the EAT–Lancet planetary health diet; halving food waste; drastically improving water-use efficiency across sectors; and maximising nitrogen use efficiency (NUE).

At Bayer, we are working on innovative solutions to tackle most of these areas – a strategy which simultaneously fulfils our commercial and sustainability goals. But the fact remains: however much I respect the attempt with this part of the Rockström study to go beyond “admiring the problem”, the first two “solutions” are overly optimistic.

For instance, since the publication of the EAT-Lancet study called for a significant reduction in meat consumption in 2019, global meat consumption has actually increased by 11%, and is projected to peak at 375 million tonnes only in 2040. Similarly, food waste has risen from 121 to 132 kg/person/year, now exceeding a whopping 1 billion tonnes globally – mainly due to urbanization, lack of investment in basic rural infrastructure, and climate-related crop losses.

Reflecting the current biggest challenges for agriculture, our focus is on supporting farmers – regardless of the scale of their activities, level of wealth, or geography – in the following areas:

• Adapting to a fast-changing climate. Adaptation is an ever-harder challenge as nature loss and climate change exert pressure on agricultural yield, reducing our customers’ ability to recover from poor harvests and invest in the next season. Our solution is twofold: designing crop systems to better withstand extreme weather, and expanding access to crop insurance for smallholder farmers.
• Mitigating emissions. Mitigating the environmental impact of farming is critical, and encompasses greenhouse gas emissions, land-use-change pressures, pesticide residues, nitrate and eutrophication. This year, we will be developing, seeking registration for, and launching a number of significant breakthroughs at the intersection of artificial intelligence, biology and chemistry.
• Accessing innovative solutions. Access to technological breakthroughs as disruptive as renewables needs to be driven by a renewed focus on strengthening rural infrastructure in developing countries. We are heavily investing in this – most recently through our new seed facility in Zambia.

Other agribusinesses are also investing in climate-resilient technologies and tools – meaning the food system’s struggles do not stem not from a lack of disruptive solutions, but from reluctance and even resistance to adopting them.

Ironically, the most vociferous opposition is often from the progressives most worried about the state of the world.

This must change, swiftly: efforts to “innovate” solutions to the climate and food security crises must be complemented by decisive solidarity from governments, most notably in the form of incentives and supportive regulation. I therefore welcome Europe’s progress on gene-editing regulation, and the biotechnology approvals we have seen in many Sub-Saharan countries. We need more of this to help convince companies and farmers that the sustainable choice is also the smart one.

The Food Systems Summit must spark action

As is highlighted in the studies I referred to at the beginning of this article, the upcoming 2nd UN Food Systems Summit (July 27–29) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, is a pivotal moment to take stock of the progress made since the inaugural 2021 summit – not least because neither the host country, nor any of the other 15 largest countries in Sub-Saharan African, are on track to achieve the agricultural productivity gains needed by 2035 to meet their own food demands. This shortfall risks increasing these countries’ reliance on food imports, and in turn diverting resources from critical investments in health, education, and infrastructure.

The first UN Food Systems Summit was marred by our collective failure to bridge the gaps between governments, scientists, civil society, and business. Hundreds of millions of farmers and their communities cannot afford another non-event like this – and nor can we, the people who depend on them for sustenance. This time, however, the organizers are asking participants to reflect on progress (and the lack thereof), to strengthen partnerships, and to unlock investments. My hope, therefore, is the dramatic changes in climate and geopolitics – as well as the bright spots of progress – will lead to a different outcome. Failure to act again will fuel food inflation and deepen the crisis.