Climate Action Plan 2021: Successful delivery will be determined by early action and financial commitments

Ireland’s Climate Action plan was published last week with a set of measures and policy actions that plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the Irish economy by 2030.

The document presents specific policy measures to deliver a 42% bulk reduction in emissions and acknowledges that a further 4 million tonnes of reductions (+6% points) are required in further iterations of the plan as well as the use of afforestation removals post 2030 to deliver the final ambition of a 51% reduction.

The plan has a strong focus on people, engagement, dialogue, community, just transitions, and employment, however, the successful delivery of the plan will likely be determined by two aspects: namely time and money.

Time and money are important because most of the measures detailed in the plan are on the demand side and relate to how energy is consumed rather than produced.

Ireland has a strong track record in producing clean electricity but 80% of today’s emissions come from things that either don’t yet use electricity (cars, trucks, heating) or just can’t use electricity (land use, agriculture)

Demand-side emission reductions are more challenging and expensive than supply-side measures because the number of actors is greater, the emissions reductions are incremental, and take longer to achieve

Demand-side costs also dominate energy transition investments and the profile of those who share these costs is also different.

Of the additional net investment of €45 billion in capital expenditure required to deliver the climate action plan, 65% is for demand-side sectors requiring families and businesses rather than large firms to make investment decisions in areas such as transport and home heating.

Financially this is challenging as the median industrial wage in Ireland is not sufficient to incentivise retrofitting for most dwellings or installing a low carbon heating system and so massive financial commitment from the state will be needed to help families deliver this.

Time is also an issue. Last year 4,000 high-standard home retrofits were undertaken while 1,600 heat pumps were installed. This must increase to 75,000 retrofits a year in 4 years’ time if the plan is to be achieved.

Time is also an overlapping constraint in demand-side reductions because of the significant human capital needed to deliver it. The future will require climate action to be more about plumbers, electricians, builders, and carpenters. The plan acknowledges the need to get more women and men into trades and an Expert Group on Future Skills Needs estimate approximately 25,000 new roles across a wide variety of skills by 2030.

The agricultural sector too will be impacted by time as there is often a gap between policy uptake and emissions delivery due to the nature of carbon cycles and other items.

The economic sustainability of farming policy requires all dimensions of sustainability to be considered together rather than individual fragmented elements. When looked at as a whole system, economic viability in Irish agricultural policy demands a level of scale and intensity that overburdens land leading to water and air pollution while at the same time underpays a high number of farmers.

Many of the measures in the plan for agriculture are well documented but at its core is the need to adapt policy to have fewer cattle but not fewer farmers. This will require sustained financial incentives to steer willing families toward different land-use practices but the mixed nature of land, farm types, and demographic background means that a one size fits all policy won’t work.

In the transport sector, the turnover of vehicles is slower than the level of the emissions reduction needed, and strong nudges to deliver less driving are required. This too takes time as public infrastructure for bus lanes and cycling have long lead-in times. Early implementation of policies that deliver emissions reduction such as sustainable biofuels blending, encouraging remote working, and discouraging the purchase of large engine sizes is required.  One tonne of CO2 saved this year adds up to 8 tonnes of cumulative saving in 2030 so early action is key.

While climate policy is a key motivation for change, recent energy system changes across the world have often arisen in response to a much broader set of factors beyond emissions mitigation, including air pollution, energy poverty, and energy security. These elements are not well quantified in this iteration of the plan but would strengthen the financial case for action.

Many things the Irish government is doing today to reduce emissions are correct, but they need to be scaled up to a level we have never seen before and at a speed, we have never achieved before.

It is a daunting but necessary challenge and one that is amplified by the fact that it is millions of individuals and households that must engage with this challenge.

If the climate action plan doesn’t deliver it won’t be for a lack of ambition, but more likely for a lack of time to implement the measures required, or simply a lack of money to incentivise the action needed.