Ireland’s Climate Action Bill: From Policy to the Practical

The Government has published the draft text of the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Bill 2020.

Here are some of my reflections on the Bill and how it can move from the policy to the practical

What is a Carbon Budget? It is a simplified way to measure the additional emissions that can enter the atmosphere to stay below a defined temperature limit. It is seen as a key number for many but a carbon budget is complex and is sensitive to the approach used.

What is Ireland’s Carbon Budget? My colleague James Glynn has a strong piece of research on this (can be seen here). James calculated Ireland’s cumulative carbon budget to range from 766 Million tonnes CO2 to 128 Million tonnes CO2. The range reflects probabilities, population and other factors. Ireland emits about 40 million tonnes of CO2 each year and if we made no changes, Ireland would use its carbon budget over a period of 20 or 3 years.

What is covered in the Bill? The Bill covers greenhouse gases attributable to industrial, agricultural, energy and other anthropogenic activities in the State. It is not clear whether emissions from International Aviation (or a portion thereof) or Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry is included. If these were included they would add approximately 7 million tonnes of annual emissions to the base year. The UK net-zero target covers aviation and the EU is considering the same.

Will there be fines for non-delivery? The Bill presently suggests no. At EU level Ireland has obligations for emissions reduction in Transport, Agriculture and Heat. There are costs associated with the requirement to purchase credits from other Members states if the overall emissions target is not met. In the electricity sector, there are no fines at EU level for government lack of progress in emissions reduction as the sector falls under the EU cap and trade system

Are renewables targets in the Bill? No. Renewable targets are a poor proxy for overall emissions reduction because they don’t capture the emissions impact of increasing or decreasing energy demand. For example, for the same level of renewable electricity (70%), Ireland’s emissions in 2030 can vary by 1 million tonnes with the key driver being uncertainty in Data Centre demand.

What about our EU Climate obligations? Ireland must reduce emissions in the areas outside of electricity by 30% relative to a 2005 baseline. This is challenging as Ireland significantly missed it’s 2020 target and is starting from a weak position. At EU level the current ambition on the Green Deal will likely see Ireland’s targets for 2030 increase to a 40% reduction for these sectors. A challenge in developing Carbon Budgets will be to maintain coherence between National and EU ambition and ensure there is complementarity

What about the Plan for Government 7% annual reduction in GHG emissions? There is no mention of the government ambition of a 7% annual reduction in emissions by 2030. Instead, it refers to a ‘climate neutral economy’ by the end of the year 2050. Depending on how carbon budgets are calculated and distributed across sectors the end target for 2030 could be different

What sectors will be the most challenging? Transport will be the most difficult sector. Emissions have more than doubled since 1990 and in the absence of strong policy intervention will likely continue to increase. Transport emissions are strongly correlated to economic activity and this is a challenge

What sectors will most likely deliver on ambition? The electricity sector has seen a strong reduction in emissions over the past 18 months. Fuel switching from coal to gas combined with increased renewables has delivered emissions reduction. The sector has unique challenges within the Bill as it operates across 2 jurisdictions with Ireland and Northern Ireland and is also subject to an overlapping emissions trading scheme in Europe. Electricity is however responsible for 20% of Ireland’s GHG emissions and a policy focus on the remaining 80% of emissions from other sectors is needed

Can it be achieved? All things are technically possible, but not all things are politically feasible or socially acceptable. The Bill is a step in the right direction as it normalises climate action within the political sphere. The Bill is correctly praised for its ambition but action and emissions reduction are the most important yardstick.

There is lots of good commentary on the Bill from Hannah Daly and Cara Augustenborg