How to Validate Market Assumptions Early

Before I sold Quest for $1,000,000,000, I wasted millions trusting the wrong thing: My own ideas. Here's the AI validation framework I wish I had when building Quest Nutrition: Most entrepreneurs fail in the same boring way: 1. Have an idea 2. Fall in love with it 3. Build it for months 4. Launch 5. Discover nobody wants it 6. Repeat This is "build and pray" physics. It's suicide. But there's a better way. One that uses AI to kill bad ideas in 72 hours, not 12 months. My 5-step AI validation framework that has saved millions in wasted effort: 1. Problem Verification Your idea isn't special. Period. The only thing that matters is: are people actively suffering from the problem you claim to solve? Feed Perplexity and ChatGPT with Reddit threads, forum posts, and review sites. Let AI extract patterns of pain. No real pain = dead idea. 2. Market Size Analysis Even if the pain is real, is it widespread enough? Let AI analyze Google Trends, search volumes, and TAM data. Create detailed spreadsheets of potential users. Too small = dead idea. Goals make demands. If the goal is to build a substantial business, the market has to be big enough. 3. Competitor Assessment Feed AI your top 5 competitors' websites, pricing pages, and customer reviews. Have it identify gaps and oversaturation. Create a map of what's missing. No clear advantage = dead idea. Build from physics, not analogy. That's the only way to find a real competitive edge. 4. Zero-Cost MVP Design Most founders build full products before validation. That's the most expensive way to learn. With AI, create "fake door" tests instead: • Landing page that looks real • AI-generated mockups • $50 of ads to see if people try to buy No buyers = dead idea. The market doesn't care how hard you worked. It only cares if you solved a real problem. 5. Early Adopter Interviews For ideas that survive steps 1-4, use AI to: • Draft perfect outreach messages • Generate interview questions that reveal buying intent • Analyze interview transcripts for patterns No enthusiasm = dead idea. This is Physics of Progress in action. Test hypotheses. Follow the data. Kill your darlings fast. The hard truth about entrepreneurship is that 90% of ideas SHOULD die. Your job isn't to build - it's to kill bad ideas quickly. Most entrepreneurs think failure is the worst thing that can happen. It's not. The worst thing is wasting years on something nobody wants. Let AI be your reality check. It's ruthlessly honest in a way your friends, your team, and even you can't be. Ideas are worthless. Validation is everything. PS: I’ve trained an entire GPT to track down the root cause of your next revenue plateau - and help you break through it. It’s built based on 100,000s of data points from my group coaching sessions. Grab it for free here: https://buff.ly/nUri82k

Imagine spending months building a product, only to hear crickets at launch. 😱 Before coding, ask yourself: “𝘏𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘐 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴?” I once stopped a founder who wanted us to develop his product from diving into development too soon: “𝘎𝘰 𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵.” So, instead of us jumping directly into coding, He tested the idea with a 𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗮𝗴𝗲 & 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 and discovered critical tweaks that saved months of effort. 🔥 𝟲 𝗪𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗻 𝗠𝗩𝗣 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆: ✅ 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗣𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗨𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘀 - Skip assumptions. Five real conversations reveal more than weeks of guesswork. ✅ 𝗟𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 – Create a simple page & see if people sign up. Buffer’s founder validated demand this way! ✅ 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗼 𝗩𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗼 𝗼𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘁𝘆𝗽𝗲 – Show value before building. Dropbox’s MVP was just a 3-min video—75K signups followed! ✅ “𝗪𝗶𝘇𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗢𝘇” 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 – Manually deliver the service while users think it’s automated. If they love it, build later. ✅ 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗣𝗮𝘆 – Pre-orders, deposits, or dummy “Buy Now” buttons reveal real demand. ✅ 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 & 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 – If people actively seek solutions but remain unsatisfied, you’ve found a gap. 🎯 𝗕𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗲: Set a validation benchmark. Example: “20%+ 𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘯-𝘶𝘱𝘴 𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘱𝘢𝘨𝘦 = 𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘤𝘦𝘦𝘥.” 𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 – 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗱𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗠𝗩𝗣 𝘂𝗽𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁?  Share your best hacks! Your tip could save someone from building something nobody wants. 💡🚀

Everyone chases a “gap in the market”. The better question: “Is there a market in that gap”? After scaling several ventures I can tell you: white space doesn't equal demand. • Short vid platform Quibi raised $1.75B → gone in 6 months • Juicero → “solved” a $700 smoothie problem no one had • Google Glass dazzled with tech → fizzled with users At Tandem, we did one thing before writing a line of code: Immersed ourselves in the lives of the people we wanted to serve. • I interviewed 400+ pet parents → on sidewalks, at parks, in vet lobbies • Spent months as a clinic admin → handling calls, emails, medical records • Saw real workflows, frustrations, and dropped balls up close • I built an online forum where we could listen at scale We weren’t looking for nice-to-haves. We were listening for pain. And we heard it. Pet parents loved their vets. But hated acting as project managers for their pet’s health. Scheduling. Records. Meds. Follow-ups. They were drowning in fragmentation. That’s when we knew there wasn’t just a gap. There was demand. There was pain. The validation framework we used: 1) Talk to 100+ ideal customers ↳ Listen with empathy. Observe closely. Identify patterns. 2) Quantify the pain ↳ How much time, money, stress is it costing them? 3) Test willingness to pay ↳ Interest is easy. Dollars are proof. 4) Launch something minimal ↳ We started with a simple mobile clinic and routine services 5) Let real customers reshape the model ↳ Every iteration was shaped by direct conversations, not assumptions Ideas get applause. Validated pain gets adoption. A gap in the market is just theory, until enough people pay to climb out of it. That’s how you know there’s a real market in the gap. And that’s where the true work begins.

$4.2 billion down the drain. That's what founders waste yearly building products nobody wants. I've seen this movie before: technical founders burn through $50K and 6 months of runway on unvalidated ideas. Y Combinator's 3-day validation system changes the game: Most founders miss this entirely. They obsess over products and tech, skipping the critical validation step. They build in isolation, burn cash at alarming rates, then launch to silence. Elite operators take a different approach. YC startups consistently outperform because they validate first. Their 3-day system predicts market fit with 85% accuracy — no guesswork, just execution. Day 1: Hunt for real problems. Average founders ask useless questions like "Do you like this idea?" — pure vanity metrics. Elite founders focus on problems that meet three requirements: they must be monetizable (people will pay), intense (cause real pain), and frequent (happen regularly). The question that separates amateurs from pros: "Walk me through the last time you encountered this problem." This reveals actual behavior — not what people think they might do. The problem isn't real enough to build for if they can't describe a specific instance. Day 2: Test hypotheses, not products. The principle is simple — build the minimum necessary to validate your core assumption. Create one of these: • A Wizard of Oz prototype • A manual service • A landing page • A mockup Day 3: Demand evidence of intent. This is where the YC approach gets ruthless about predicting market fit. Don't settle for "that's interesting" — demand concrete signals like letters of intent, actual pre-orders, or paid pilot commitments. The most powerful technique in their arsenal? The "shadow landing page" test — two identical pages with one key difference in your solution. Measure conversions, not just clicks. Cost: $100-200. Potential savings: months of wasted development. I've watched this play out repeatedly in cybersecurity. Technical founders believe brilliant tech equals market demand. It doesn't. The worst outcome isn't failure — it's building something no one wants. Execution separates successful founders from the rest. Validation IS execution—it's not a distraction. It's the most critical building you'll do. At NextLink Labs, we apply this standard to everything we build. Building without validation is like driving cross-country without a map. You might end up somewhere interesting, but you'll burn unnecessary fuel getting there. Spend 3 days and $500 now to save 6 months and $50K later. Your runway will thank you.

𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆-𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝘆𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀: 𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗠𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 $𝟭𝗠 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲? You’re eager to launch. Your cybersecurity solution is cutting-edge, AI-powered, and built to stop threats before they happen. But here’s the reality check: Moving too fast without real market validation could kill your startup before it scales. 🚨 The Brutal Truth: Cybersecurity Market Validation Takes 3X Longer Than Other Tech Sectors 💥 Security buyers are notoriously cautious—they don’t trust new vendors easily. 💥 Enterprise sales cycles are long, complex, and budget-heavy. 💥 Trust-building isn’t optional—it’s the foundation of every deal. 💥 Many startups burn cash developing features CISOs never asked for. 🔹 If you don’t validate your market properly, you’ll waste months (or years) chasing the wrong customers. 🔍 Are You Making These Validation Mistakes? ❌ You’re assuming CISOs will switch just because your tech is better. ❌ You’re building before confirming buyers’ actual security priorities. ❌ You don’t know how your prospects currently budget for cybersecurity. ❌ You haven’t tested your pricing—so you’re either overpricing or underpricing. 🚀 The $1M Market Validation Framework That Works ✅ Double Your Validation Timeline – Most cybersecurity founders underestimate how long it takes to gain trust and traction. ✅ Run Parallel Validation Streams – Test messaging, pricing, and buyer personas simultaneously to speed up learning. ✅ Document Every Objection – The pushbacks you get from CISOs aren’t rejections—they’re gold for refining your approach. ✅ Test Pricing Models Early – If you don’t validate pricing before building, you risk creating a solution that’s too expensive—or not premium enough. 💡 Ask Yourself Right Now: 1️⃣ Have you had real, deep conversations with at least 50 potential customers? 2️⃣ Can you clearly name your buyers' top 3 security pain points? 3️⃣ Do you know what your target customers are currently paying for their cybersecurity solutions? 🔥 The Harsh Reality: Rushing to market without validation = wasted time, burned cash, and slow growth. The cybersecurity startups that WIN are the ones that validate deeply, niche down, and build exactly what CISOs are desperate for. 🚀 Your Next Move: 🔹 Block 2 hours tomorrow. Call 3 potential customers. Don’t pitch—just listen. 🔹 Ask them about their biggest security headaches, their current solutions, and what they WISH existed. 💡 Need a proven framework to validate your cybersecurity startup faster? 📩 DM me “Market Validation ” and let's discuss the system I use to help founders validate, pivot, and dominate. No selling , just real value. #EarlyStageStartup #CyberSecurity #TechFounder #MarketValidation #StartupGrowth #ARRGrowth #TechStartups #ScalingStartups #LeadershipCoaching #RevenueGrowth

Dear founders - message-market fit should come before product-market fit. Before writing a single line of code, we validate one thing first: does the message resonate with our ICP? We’ve done it successfully when I just started to look for a business to acquire, and here is how we do it at my AI startup: - Start with ICP hypotheses. We brainstorm a few ideal customer profiles and broad problem areas where we might create value. - Test pain-solution narratives. We run LinkedIn + email sequences tailored to each ICP, gauging reactions to different pain points and solution angles (see real stats on the screenshot below). - Dig into specific use cases & pricing. For those who show interest, we go deeper - testing reactions to specific use cases and different pricing options. - Always include a CTA. Every message ends with a clear call-to-action. Why? Because even in early message testing, you can capture leads and potential design partners. You can run multiple validation loops in 3–4 weeks - and that can save you tens of thousands of dollars in dev costs - and more importantly, months of focus and attention, which is the most precious resource that founders have. Validate the narrative before the product. That’s how you build something people actually want🙌

𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗴𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 — 𝗣𝗘𝗥𝗜𝗢𝗗𝗅 An AI founder recently approached me, frustrated after being turned down by multiple investors. He had spent $300,000 developing a product for wellness… but hadn’t validated demand. After 6 months of pitching, he hadn’t closed a single funding deal. Why? Because investors want more than a great pitch. They want proof that people need what you’re building. Without validation, every dollar invested is just a gamble. Founders, if you’re in the AI or wellness space, listen closely: Market validation isn’t optional—it’s the foundation of every successful funding round. Here’s how we turned his pitch around and secured his first investment: 📌 Showed User Feedback ↳ Investors don’t want assumptions; they want data from real users. ↳ We collected feedback from 50 target users to show exactly who required this. 📌 Highlighted Key Retention Metrics ↳ High retention means high value. We refined the product until users stuck around. ↳ Investors saw that users kept coming back—a strong validation signal. 📌 Demonstrated Scalable Demand ↳ We ran small, high-impact campaigns to validate the broader market. ↳ These tests showed that with funding, the product could grow sustainably. Result? Within 4 weeks, this founder’s validation data secured $700,000 in funding. Investors saw more than a product—they saw a viable market and a founder who did the work. Here’s the truth: Skipping market validation doesn’t just hurt your product. It kills your funding. Are you validating your market, or just hoping it works? Let’s talk below if you’re ready to discuss real market validation strategies. 👇

🚀 Marketers: Don't Confuse Taste with Judgement “Taste” (quality) gives you a pretty website. 😏 Jk- it’s more than that. It makes your brand stand out and be memorable. However, judgment gets you business results. You need both to be successful, and judgment is vastly overlooked in the current AI-marketing landscape. I recently asked someone to create a marketing plan using an LLM. On paper, it looked great. 📄 But once you try to put these ideas in motion, you start seeing what works and what doesn’t. For example, the plan suggested using a “customer success metric” as a marketing KPI. Here is why thats a problem: Customer success metrics are an output of your product, not your marketing machine. This is where judgment comes in - understanding the difference between what sounds good and what will work in practice. Even with good context, an LLM will almost always give you just a sliver of the full picture. As Tomasz Tunguz put it: “Raw data and business meaning requires human judgment that current AI can’t replicate.” So the question is: How do you build judgment? 1. Aggressively document your hypotheses. ✏️ Write down what you expect to happen before you act. Example: We believe attending IRL events will put us in front of 50 high-intent buyers per quarter. Clarity upfront makes the post-mortem sharper (and yes, it hurts more when you’re wrong, but you’ll live). 2. Do post-mortems as a weekly/monthly ritual. 🧐 Salesforce’s growth was built on relentlessly dissecting why things hit or missed. The problem is worse with AI- it floods you with output. Without ruthless review, you won’t know what to focus on and what to learn from. 3. Seek constant feedback from the market. 📢 Not your team, not your LLM - your customers, prospects, and partners. Companies like Notion and Figma grew because they constantly checked whether reality matched their assumptions with their community. 4. Use AI to find your blind spots. 🤖 This has been one of the most powerful tactics for me personally. I routinely run my thinking through multiple models, assigning them different personas- a skeptical CFO, an impatient buyer, a cynical competitor. LLMs will surface things you and your team might have missed. 5. Document everything you learn. 📚 Yours and your team’s. Think like Amazon: they write everything down because institutional memory compounds. Use LLMs as your archivist - they are great at structuring lessons so you can reuse them later. Bottom line: AI can accelerate you 10x 🚀. But without judgment, you’ll just hit the wall 10x faster. Judgment comes from doing, reflecting, and adjusting. That part’s still human - and still earned the hard way.

How to Validate a Market Hypothesis with Less Than $100. At the end of 2022, I wanted to launch a coaching marketplace. This is what I did to validate the market hypothesis: 📄 Survey: I conducted a LinkedIn survey to gauge demand and pricing. 122 people responded. 📞 Outreach: I connected with interested individuals to match them with coaches. 🤝 Match: I helped them find coaches. Coaches paid me a referral fee. I learned that coaches would pay a fee to connect with clients and clients wanted help finding the right coach. 👨🏽💻 Landing page: I built a landing page (after getting paying customers) to generate leads. After 12 months, Cocora.io now serves over 50 clients in the US and LatAm. The process was not easy, quick, or painless. But to validate our initial market hypothesis we spent less than $100 on a Typeform subscription and a Webflow subscription. Rather than months of market research or costly platform development, we found paying customers and used Stripe and WhatsApp as our "platform" for the first few months. If you want to launch a company, validate your market hypothesis before building a product. This will greatly increase your odds of success and save you a lot of time and money 😉 #startups #entrepreneurship #leadership #coaching