Understanding Seasonal Performance Trends

Outbound marketers panicking about getting more out-of-office replies this month are completely missing the bigger picture. July always has higher OOO rates. So does August. And June. This doesn’t mean cold email is broken or that your campaigns suddenly stopped working. This is literally just how the calendar works every single year. After running campaigns for 400+ clients across 5 years, I can tell you exactly when to expect performance drops and when to prepare for recovery. January - May: Peak performance season. Fresh budgets, new initiatives, and decision makers are actively looking for solutions. This is when you should be going hardest on outbound. June - August: Summer slowdown hits hard. Budgets get tighter, people take vacations, and response rates naturally drop. We typically see 20% decreases from May to June, and that's completely normal. September - mid-November: Performance picks back up. People are scrambling to hit end-of-year goals and often have budget they need to deploy before losing it. Mid-November - December: Holiday season brings another slowdown. Decision makers are focused on wrapping up the year, and not starting new vendor relationships. The solution isn't to panic or completely overhaul your campaigns when you hit these seasonal dips. The solution is to increase your volume during slow periods to maintain the same number of qualified responses. If your reply rate drops 20% in July, send 25% more emails. If you're running multi-channel campaigns, lean harder into LinkedIn and cold calling when email gets slower. You have to understand that outbound is a numbers game that follows predictable seasonal patterns. Plan for the dips instead of getting surprised by them, and you'll maintain consistent pipeline all year long.

We support 30+ businesses with their revenue goals on Amazon. Some want to hit $500k+ in July, others want to hit $200k+, others want to hit $75k, others want to hit $10k.   As we look to be a holistic Amazon consulting agency goal setting becomes very important. 💯   One large trap we've noticed when helping brands set revenue goals is pushing too hard during their off season.   It's always great to be ambitious and set larger goals each month.   However, setting a large revenue goal, when revenue historically starts to decrease in your market, can lead to a large loss in profitability. 😅   As the market shrinks, and CVR goes down, it's not the ideal time to be pushing hard via advertising.   This will hurt your TACOS and leave you with less money in your pocket.   For new brands, it might be hard to understand seasonality factors. As you’ve never experienced the current season, you’re in before!   A great way to get a feel for seasonality is to use Helium 10.   Look at two things: 1️⃣ Search Volume trends 2️⃣ Competitor sales trends   Let's break those down a bit further.   For search volume trends you want to do a reverse ASIN search and identify 5-10 KWs that are highly relevant. From there put them into Helium 10's keyword tracker and look back at their historical trends.   Notice SV picking up massively for certain months? You'll want to push harder during those.   Notice SV dropping during certain months? You'll want to pull back a bit more to focus on efficiency.   For competitor sales trends you can go to your competitors listing on Amazon. Use the H10 chrome plug-in and analyze how 3-6 competitors’ sales are trending for specific months.   Same as SV - if certain months pick up, make note of that and be prepared to push harder during those months!   And if things are slowing, make sure to plan for profits during those months. #Amazon #ecommerce #seasonality #AmazonFBA #digitalmarketing #PPC

As seasons cycle, so do your ad budgets for shifts in consumer behavior. Whether you’re in retail, hospitality, or SaaS, understanding these patterns is crucial for optimizing ad spend. One of our clients faced painfully low sales in April-May. Panic. But here's what we found: these months are historically low according to Google Trends. This context reassured us that June would bounce back hard – and it did. Here’s how to leverage Google Trends for data-driven decisions and maximize marketing ROI: 1. Use Google Trends: Track search term popularity over time to predict consumer behavior and identify peak seasons for your products or services. Make informed decisions about ad spend and strike when the iron is hot. 2. Seasonal Insights: Business SaaS: Increase ad budget in January and early Q2 when businesses invest in new solutions. Summer Products: Ramp up ad spend in late April and peak in June. Holiday Travel & Hospitality: Start ad campaigns in March and maintain a high budget through July. Back-to-School Supplies: Begin campaigns in early July and intensify in August. 3. Make Data-Driven Decisions: - Identify keywords: Track relevant search terms. - Analyze trends: Identify peak seasons. - Plan your budget: Align ad spend with high-interest periods. - Monitor continuously: Adjust strategies in real-time. Seeing these clear patterns is powerful. Use Google Trends to ensure you’re investing when potential customers are most likely to convert. 

They tell you that once you graduate and start working, there’s no such thing as summer break. While this is true (as a founder I work all the time) with Crowded, I get to retain the idea of seasonality. The majority of Crowded's nonprofit users are on the school/summer calendar - organizations like middle school marching band booster clubs, to university fraternity chapters, to our 100 summer camps - use Crowded heavily for only some months of the year. Recognizing the seasonality of this business is becoming increasingly crucial for our success. Here are a few reasons why: - Catching the right marketing/sales cycles - Decision makers have more time during the summer to consider adopting a new platform for the next school year and vice versa for camps. We can plan when to budget our resources for different verticals accordingly. - Forecasting Revenue - From month to month, the highest revenue source can completely change (ie. tax season in May, camp activity in July, dues collecting in September). Knowing which season is approaching allows us to forecast revenue more accurately. - Roadmapping Accordingly - We can develop features for certain verticals ahead of their busy time of year, ensuring happy customers! - Understanding Customer Success - If an account has been inactive for a month, we can understand if it is a cause for concern or simply seasonality. Does anyone else also plan by season? How do you leverage seasonality?

Your Data is Lying to You! Here’s How to Reveal the REAL Trends 🚨 Most companies make the mistake of analyzing isolated numbers instead of looking at patterns over time. The result? Bad decisions, wasted money, and costly process failures. A Time Series Plot is your secret weapon for uncovering hidden trends before they impact your business. But not all time series charts are the same. Here’s how to choose the right one: Time Series with Groups – Comparing Multiple Processes ✅ Helps analyze differences between shifts, suppliers, or machines. ✅ Identifies which group performs best over time. Time Series with Forecasting – Predicting Future Performance ✅ Uses historical data to estimate future trends. ✅ Supports better planning and resource allocation. Time Series with Fitted Trend Line – Spotting Long-Term Changes ✅ Adds a trend line to highlight overall direction. ✅ Useful for understanding gradual process improvements or declines. Seasonal Time Series Plot – Identifying Recurring Patterns ✅ Reveals cycles or repetitive trends. ✅ Helps anticipate seasonal variations in process behavior. Time Series with Control Limits – Detecting Process Stability Issues ✅ Highlights when a process is going out of control. ✅ Ensures variations stay within acceptable limits. Simple Time Series Plot – Tracking General Trends ✅ Visualizes how a process evolves over time. ✅ Useful for detecting increases, decreases, or fluctuations. 💡 Key Takeaway: If you’re not tracking trends over time, you’re making decisions in the dark. The right Time Series Plot can help you predict problems, optimize processes, and drive smarter decisions.