Outline
Auctions: Examples Auction Formats Auctions as a Bayesian Game Second Price Auctions First Price Auctions Common Value Auctions Auction Design
Game Theory
Auctions
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Ko c University
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Auctions
Many economic transactions are conducted through auctions treasury bills foreign exchange publicly owned companies mineral rights airwave spectrum rights Also can be thought of as auctions takeover battles queues wars of attrition lobbying contests art work antiques cars houses government contracts
Auction Formats
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Open bid auctions
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ascending-bid auction
aka English auction price is raised until only one bidder remains, who wins and pays the nal price aka Dutch auction price is lowered until someone accepts, who wins the object at the current price
descending-bid auction
Sealed bid auctions
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rst price auction
highest bidder wins; pays her bid aka Vickrey auction highest bidder wins; pays the second highest bid
second price auction
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Auction Formats
Strategically Equivalent Formats
Open Bid Sealed Bid
Auctions also dier with respect to the valuation of the bidders
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English Auction
Second Price
Private value auctions
each bidder knows only her own value artwork, antiques, memorabilia actual value of the object is the same for everyone bidders have dierent private information about that value oil eld auctions, company takeovers
Dutch Auction
First Price
Common value auctions
We will study sealed bid auctions 1 Private values
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Second price First price Winners curse
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Common values
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Independent Private Values
Auctions as a Bayesian Game
set of players N = {1, 2, . . . , n} type set i = [v, v ] , v 0 action set, Ai = R+ beliefs
Each bidder knows only her own valuation Valuations are independent across bidders Bidders have beliefs over other bidders values Risk neutral bidders
opponents valuations are independent draws from a distribution function F F is strictly increasing and continuous
If the winners value is v and pays p, her payo is v p
payo function ui (a, v ) =
vi P (a) , m
0,
if aj ai for all j = i, and |{j : aj = ai }| = m if aj > ai for some j = i
P (a) is the price paid by the winner if the bid prole is a
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Second Price Auctions
I. Bidding your value weakly dominates bidding higher
Second Price Auctions
II. Bidding your value weakly dominates bidding lower Suppose your value is $10 but you bid $5. Three cases:
Suppose your value is $10 but you bid $15. Three cases:
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There is a bid higher than $10 (e.g. $12)
There is a bid higher than $15 (e.g. $20)
You loose either way: no dierence You win either way and pay $2: no dierence You loose with $5: zero payo You win with $10: earn $2
12 10 value
You loose either way: no dierence You win either way and pay $5: no dierence You loose with $10: zero payo You win with $15: loose $2
2nd highest bid is lower than $5 (e.g. $2)
2nd highest bid is lower than $10 (e.g. $5)
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bid
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2nd highest bid is between $5 and $10 (e.g. $8)
2nd highest bid is between $10 and $15 (e.g. $12)
10 value
8 5 bid
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First Price Auctions
Bayesian Equilibrium of First Price Auctions
Only 2 bidders You are player 1 and your value is v > 0 You believe the other bidders value is uniformly distributed over [0, 1] You believe the other bidder uses strategy (v2 ) = av2 Your expected payo if you bid b (v b)prob(you win) = (v b)prob(b > av2 ) = (v b)prob(v2 < b/a) b = (v b) a Maximizing implies rst derivative equal to zero b vb =0 + a a Solving for b v b= 2 Bidding half the value is a Bayesian equilibrium
Highest bidder wins and pays her bid Would you bid your value? What happens if you bid less than your value?
You get a positive payo if you win But your chances of winning are smaller Optimal bid reects this tradeo
Bidding less than your value is known as bid shading
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Bayesian Equilibrium of First Price Auctions
n bidders You are player 1 and your value is v > 0 You believe the other bidders values are independently and uniformly distributed over [0, 1] You believe the other bidders uses strategy (vi ) = avi Your expected payo if you bid b (v b)prob(you win) (v b)prob(b > av2 and b > av3 . . . and b > avn ) This is equal to (v b)prob(b > av2 )prob(b > av3 ) . . . prob(b > avn ) = (v b)(b/a)n1 Maximizing implies rst derivative equal to zero (b/a)n1 + (n 1) Solving for b b= vb (b/a)n2 = 0 a
Which One Brings More Revenue?
Second Price
Bidders bid their value Revenue = second highest bid Bidders bid less than their value Revenue = highest bid
First Price
Which one is better? Turns out it doesnt matter
Revenue Equivalence Theorem
Any auction with independent private values with a common distribution in which
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the number of the bidders are the same and the bidders are risk-neutral, the object always goes to the buyer with the highest value, the bidder with the lowest value expects zero surplus,
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n1 v n
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yields the same expected revenue.
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Common Value Auctions and Winners Curse
Suppose you are going to bid for an oshore oil lease Value of the oil tract is the same for everybody But nobody knows the true value Each bidder obtains an independent and unbiased estimate of the value Your estimate is $100 million How much do you bid? Suppose everybody, including you, bids their estimate and you are the winner What did you just learn? Your estimate must have been larger than the others The true value must be smaller than $100 million You overpaid
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Common Value Auctions and Winners Curse
If everybody bids her estimate winning is bad news This is known as Winners Curse Optimal strategies are complicated Bidders bid much less than their value to prevent winners curse
To prevent winners curse
Base your bid on expected value conditional on winning Auction formats are not equivalent in common value auctions Open bid auctions provide information and ameliorates winners curse
Bids are more aggressive Bids are more conservative
Sealed bid auctions do not provide information
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Auction Design: Failures
New Zeland Spectrum Auction (1990)
Auction Design: Failures
Australian TV Licence Auction (1993)
Used second price auction with no reserve price Estimated revenue NZ$ 240 million Actual revenue NZ$36 million
Two satellite-TV licences Used rst price auction Huge embarrasment
Some extreme cases Winning Bid NZ$100,000 NZ$7,000,000 NZ$1 Second Highest Bid NZ$6,000 NZ$5,000 None
High bidders had no intention of paying They bid high just to guarantee winning They also bid lower amounts at A$5 million intervals They defaulted
licences had to be re-awarded at the next highest bid those bids were also theirs
Source: John McMillan, Selling Spectrum Rights, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 1994
Outcome after a series of defaults Initial Bid A$212 mil. A$177 mil. Problem: No penalty for default Final Price A$117 mil. A$77 mil.
Problems
Second price format politically problematic
Public sees outcome as selling for less than its worth
Source: John McMillan, Selling Spectrum Rights, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 1994
No reserve price
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Auction Design: Failures
Turkish GSM licence auction April 2000: Two GSM 1800 licences to be auctioned Auction method:
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Auction Design
Good design depends on objective
Round 1: First price sealed bid auction Round 2: First price sealed bid auction with reserve price
Revenue Eciency Other
Reserve price is the winning bid of Round 1
One common objective is to maximize expected revenue In the case of private independent values with the same number of risk neutral bidders format does not matter Auction design is a challenge when
Bids in the rst round Bidder Bid Amount Is-Tim $2.525 bil. Dogan+ $1.350 bil. Genpa+ $1.224 bil. Koc+ $1.207 bil. Fiba+ $1.017 bil. Bids in the second round: NONE! Problem: Facilitates entry deterrence
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values are correlated bidders are risk averse collusion entry deterrence reserve price
Other design problems
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Auction Design
Correlated values: Ascending bid auction is better Risk averse bidders
Second price auction: risk aversion does not matter First price auction: higher bids
Collusion: Sealed bid auctions are better to prevent collusion Entry deterrence: Sealed bid auctions are better to promote entry A hybrid format, such as Anglo-Dutch Auction, could be better. Anglo-Dutch auction has two stages:
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Ascending bid auction until only two bidders remain Two remaining bidders make oers in a rst price sealed bid auction
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