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2018
Numerical Modelling in
Hydrology and Hydraulics
Ismail Kaan Tuncok, PhD, PE, MBA
Professional Background
Civil Engineering at Middle East Technical University (METU) in 1990.
MSc in Civil Engineering METU (1992), specialization Hydraulics.
PhD in Civil Engineering Arizona State University (1995),
specialization Water Resources Planning and Management
Regional Experiences: USA, Europe, Africa, Asia and Turkey.
12 years USA as a technical lead/project manager, Tetra Tech, AMEC and AECOM.
International Projects: UNDP, UNFAO, World Bank, European Union, EU-Joint Research
Center, Asian Development Bank, WWF, Government Agencies and Universities.
Currently,
Team Leader
“Enhanced Water Security Investment”
Asian Development Bank in coordination with the Directorate General of Water Resources, Ministry
of Public Works & Housing, Republic of Indonesia
To develop infrastructure investment portfolio in Flood Risk Management and Raw Water Supply
projects in 4 river basins.
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Changes natural and
human-induced
Impacts: Economic Impacts: Social, Environmental
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Enhanced Water Resources Management
Enabling environment Institutions Management
Laws and policies Roles and responsibilities Structured mechanisms to
• Frame water resources • Of basin and other water • Assess water resources
management within a country sector organisations at (availability and demand)
and between countries different levels in the • Set up communication and
government, information systems
Water user dialogues nongovernment and • Resolve conflicts in allocation of
• Cross-sectoral and upstream- private sectors water
downstream dialogues • Effective co-ordination • Establish regulations
• Basin committee mechanisms • Establish financing
• Planning process arrangements
Budgets • Financing • Establish self-regulation
• Financing organisations and (voluntary actions)
investment • Research and development
• Undertake development works
Co-operation • Ensure accountability
• Within international river basins • Develop organisational
capacity
1
Structured steps
in decision making
2
5
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Numerical Modelling
Understanding laws of nature on conservation of
mass, energy and momentum,
Expressing these laws in the most representative
manner through use mathematical formulations,
Validating the outcomes through use of data,
experience and professional judgement.
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Integrated processes of
Meteorology-Hydrology-Hydraulics
meteorological processes, historical
trends of atmospheric conditions and
future climate change estimates by
using land-based and satellite-based
technologies,
rainfall-runoff processes, statistical and
physical models in the context of
hydrologic modelling to better
represent the hydrologic cycle,
runoff to riverine hydraulics processes,
characterization of land use, land
cover, soil, geospatial sciences and
some of the critical social,
environmental, demographic and
economic conditions in the context of
hydraulic modelling,
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Interaction with local communities for
SMART-S actions
Interacting with local communities, stakeholders, and
national/international agencies to “fill” information gaps in a
representative manner through use of validation processes, and
Using judgement and experience as guidance through the processes of
numerical modelling.
Allow local partners, stakeholders and agencies for SMART-S actions
Specific-
Measurable-
Achievable-
Relevant-
Time Bound
to minimize “risk exposure” of local communities in a Sustainable manner.
Numerical Models
Conceptual Model – a set of concepts that
describe a subject and allow reasoning about it
Mathematical Model – a conceptual model
expressed in numerical equations
Physical Model – a conceptual model expressed
in a physical setting
Geographic Data Model – a data model
expressed in a GIS database
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Hydrologic Modelling: Rainfall-Runoff process
RAINFALL
POTENTIAL EVAPORATION
MODEL PARAMETERS
RUNOFF COMPONENTS
EVAPORATION
RECHARGE
Numerical
Model based
on Inventory
of data
layers
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Real-time Precipitation
And Flow
Satellite
Meteorologic
Forecast
Radar
Hydrologic Network Structure
Drainage System Hydro Network Flow
Time
Time Series
Hydrography Channel System
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Arc Hydro and HEC-HMS
HEC-HMS
Hydrologic
Model
Arc Hydro
Schematic
Network Calculates
Flows
Hydrology Model
Discharge
(m3/s)
1600
1500
1400 Q2
1300 Q5
1200
1100 Q10
1000 Q25
900
800 Q50
700 Q100
600
500 Q500
400
300
200
100 Time (hr)
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
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Key River Basin Features
• Climate
• Shape
• Size
• Slope
• Soil type
• Hydrogeology
• Storage
capacity
Hydraulic Modelling: Runoff to River hydraulics
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Hydraulic Modelling
1D Hydraulic Properties
Continuity
A Q
q0
t x
Conservation of Momentum
Q
Q
Q A h g QQ
gA 2 0
t x x M AR 4 / 3
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Flood
Inundation
Mapping
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Sentinel-2 Paths (green)
and Landsat WRS-2 Paths (red)
2D Hydraulic Modelling
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2-D Hydraulic Model
2D Hydraulic
Properties
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Grid Solutions
Single
Grid
Flexible Grid
Multiple Grid
Flood
Hazard / Risk
Mapping
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5 GWMP
Fact Sheets/Media
Demos/Workshops Issues/opportunities
Scientific Papers
35
6
4
3 1
2 Concepts
Products/Processes
Demos/Workshops
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Graduated Planning Controls
Engineering with Nature: Low Impact Development
Eventually the coir fabric and structural
earth wall itself will be completely
overgrown with hydro-seeded grass
completed
and otherproject, a short distance down the road,
vegetation.
fully vegetated and looks entirely natural.
Construction of the brush mattress underway.
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EFAS (European Flood Alert System)
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