Global Demography

 The issue of how many people are in the world

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This chart shows the geographic distribution of
the worlds population from 1800 to
2050(estimated)
Source United Nations Population Division,
Briefing Packet, 1998 Revision of World
Population Prospects.
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World population growth over the next 150 years
is a developing country issue
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History Population growth
 Population change affects all our lives in a much
more immediate way today than it has throughout
most of human history. For the first one-half
million years of human existence, the population
growth rate was about zero. The population stayed
about the same size from year to year. It was not
until the 1700s that the modern era of population
growth began. Between 1850 and 1900, the annual
growth rate reached 0.5 percent. The rate surged
to 2.0 percent by the mid-1960s, dropped to 1.7
percent by the mid-1980s, and declined to about
1.4 percent by 2000.
 the last slide shows one set of population
estimates but there is substantial controversy
over these estimates

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Births and Deaths
 Human population grew rapidly during the
Industrial Revolution, not because the birth rate
increased, but because the death rate began to
fall. This mortality revolution began in the
1700s in Europe and spread to North America by
the mid-1800s. Death rates fell as new farming
and transportation technology expanded the food
supply and lessened the danger of famine. New
technologies and increasing industrialization
improved public health and living standards. Late
in the 19th century, birth rates also began to
fall in Europe and North America, slowing the
population growth that had resulted from
continued moderately higher birth rates than
death rates.

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As Death Rates fell life expectancy steadily
increased. Today--
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Fertility rates have huge implications for
population projections. Numbers below are
billions of people as of 2050
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The big debate fertility rates
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Average fertility levels in the developing world
dropped from over 5.9 children per woman in the
1970s to about 3.9 children per woman in the
1990s.
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Changing age structures across the globe
 Rapid changes in birth and death rates having a
large impact today on the age structure of the
population across the globe with much older
populations in the high income countries
 As seen in next figure in low-income countries
more than one-third of the population is under
15, compared with less than one-fifth in
high-income countries

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An End to Population growth?
 While no one knows exactly when the population
will stop growing, the United Nations and other
organizations estimate that world population
could continue to grow well into the 22nd
century, reaching 9.8 billion by 2150. These
outcomes are based on the medium projections,
which assume (to varying degrees for different
countries) that the downward trend of fertility
rates will continue and stabilize at 2.1 children
per woman. They also assume continued mortality
declines. If fertility were to decrease at a much
faster pace and stabilize at 1.6 children per
women, world population could stop growing much
sooner by 2050 at 7.3 billion. Given that
scenario, the population would decline to 5.3
billion by 2150. On the other hand, slower
declines in fertility could lead to a global
population of 10.7 billion by 2050 and 16.2
billion in 2150, with fertility projecting to
stabilize at 2.5 children per woman.

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Migration
 Populations in particular regions also change due
to migration
 Over the past 15 years, the number of people
crossing borders in search of a better life has
been rising steadily. At the start of the 21st
Century, one in every 35 people is an
international migrant. If they all lived in the
same place, it would be the world's fifth-largest
country
 Migration has always been a part of the world
economylargest migrations occurred in the 19th
centurythere are some predictions that
migrations will grow in size as developed
countries populations agebut such projections in
the past have been very unreliable
 Note that migration is not just a rich country
phenomenasee next chart.

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Migrant labour growing in importance in OECD
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But big picture is evident here-migration from
low to high income
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Aging in Developed World
 In 1950 there were about 200 million persons aged
60 and over in the world, constituting 8.1 per
cent of the global population
 By 2050 there will be a ninefold increase and the
world's elderly population is projected to be 1.8
billion people, about 20 per cent of the total
population
 Developing countries still have a relatively
young population while populations in
industrialized countries are relatively old
 By 2050, the more developed regions will have a
very old population, with the proportion of older
persons projected to increase to 33 per cent

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Life Expectancy
 In 1960, average life expectancy in the OECD area
was 66 years. Today it is 76.
 But ageing populations are also linked to low
fertility rates (see graph 1). On average each
woman in the OECD area has 1.6 children and in
countries such as Italy, Spain and the Czech
republic the average is about 1.1-1.2 children
these are well below the 2.1 children required to
maintain a stable population.

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Dependency Ratios
 For the OECD area as a whole, the number of
people aged 65 years and over relative to the
number aged between 20 and 64 years the
dependency ratio is expected to double in the
next five decades to reach almost 50.

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ILO International Labour Organization
Implications of Aging
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Other aspects of aging and labour force
 Participation rate of older men (Over 55) in the
labour force has been falling until very recently
 Likewise age of retirement has been falling in
many rich countries
 Severe problems for pay-as-you-go pension schemes
 healthcare spending is also likely to increase,
especially since the share of the very old (80
years old and above) is expected to rise from
 less than 3 to more than 8 of the OECD
population over the next 50 years ( and this age
group is one of the biggest users of healthcare
services ) The over-65 age group accounts for
40-50 of healthcare spending and their per
capita healthcare costs are three to five times
higher than those under 65.

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How do most pension plans work?
 Most pension plans are Pay-as-you-go
 Existing workers pay a tax or levy which is used
to fund the payouts to current retirees
 As long as number of workers rising faster than
the number of retirees system more or less ok
 But with people living longer and fewer young
workers entering the labour force many of these
plans are now in trouble
 Only viable solutions are to a) cut benefits
payout to retirees, b) increase tax/levy on the
non-retired workers or c) make people worker
longer-reduce retirement age or some combination
of the above