MSA-Management science journal
ISSN 2974-303x
Volume: 1, Issue:1, Year: 2022, pp. 129-144
DRIVING MARKET FORCES FOR COVID-19 VACCINES
INDUSTRY: THE CASE OF THE COMIRNATY VACCINE
Amr Mohamaden Abdelkader Mohamed1
ESLSCA Business School
ESLSCA University, Cairo, Egypt
Email:
[email protected]Shaimaa N. Abdelaziz2
ESLSCA Business School
ESLSCA University, Cairo, Egypt
Email: [email protected]
AbstractIn order to identify the fundamental economic reasons for
market behaviour, this study offers a market analysis that serves as a
diagnostic process.Comirnaty, a COVID-19 vaccine developed by BioNTech
and Pfizer, has been a significant player in the global fight against the
coronavirus pandemic. We studied the Comirnaty vaccine’s demand, supply,
demand and supply elasticity and the strategic analysis that consisted of
SWOT analysis and PESTEL analysis. Several factors, including the global
spread pattern of COVID-19, the vaccine’s effectiveness, and the availability
of alternative vaccines, drive the demand for Comirnaty. The supply of
Comirnaty is influenced by factors such as manufacturing capacity and the
development of new vaccines. The elasticity of demand for Comirnaty is high,
with a significant increase in demand at lower prices and a decrease in demand
at higher prices. Overall, the market for Comirnaty is complex and dynamic,
with demand and supply being influenced by various factors. We expect a
dramatic change in the market forces after the announced commercialisation
of Comirnaty directly to the end consumer in the USA.
Keywords: Market analysis ; COVID-19 vaccines' market ; Market Forces ; Demand and
Supply
JEL Codes: A11 ; D43 ; L65
1
ORCID iD 0000-0001-6676-1214
2
ORCID iD 0000-0001-6214-3259
129
Introduction
Since 1950, the cost of pharmaceuticals and healthcare has
increased significantly, accounting for 4.5% of GDP in 1950, 16.0%
of GDP in 2004, and about 0.7 trillion dollars in 2008. In 2008, the cost
of healthcare surpassed 2.3 trillion dollars. Part of the money is
provided by the federal government and business, Spitz & Wickham,
(2012). By the end of 2019, the first cases of unknown-cause
pneumonia were detected in Wuhan City, China (World Health
Organization (WHO), 2020). This pneumonia was later recognised to
be caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (publicly known as Coronavirus
disease or COVID-19), which led the global economy to witness a
massive shutdown.
The covid-19 is an infectious disease that causes mild to
moderate respiratory illness. It differed from one person to another as
some people did not experience any symptoms while others
experienced most of them, and the mortality rate was high to the extent
that many counties made complete curfews and lockdowns. The
pandemic’s effects on placing everyone and everything on hold were
unimaginable. Covid-19 made almost all countries pause and wait for
a solution that will slow their infection and death rates and give the
economy a chance to recover.
The COVID-19 vaccines market has seen significant growth
and evolution in the past year. As the global pandemic spreads,
demand for effective vaccines has increased. The market is highly
competitive, with a range of different vaccines available from various
manufacturers.The market structure is complex, with various players,
including pharmaceutical companies, government agencies, and health
organisations. The production and distribution of vaccines are heavily
regulated, with different policies and processes in place in different
countries.
BioNTech is a leading biotechnology company focused on
developing innovative mRNA-based therapies. The company was
founded in 2008 by Turkish-German couple Uğur Şahin and Özlem
Türeci, both of whom are doctors and scientists with a strong
background in cancer research. BioNTech company’s most notable
product is Comirnaty, a COVID-19 vaccine developed in partnership
with Pfizer.Comirnaty was developed using BioNTech’s mRNA
technology, which allows the vaccine to target specific proteins in the
virus and trigger the body’s immune response. Comirnaty showed high
efficacy rates in clinical trials and has been approved for use in
multiple countries.
130
Due to Comirnaty’s effectiveness in preventing coronavirus
infections and its worldwide distribution, demand for the vaccine has
been high, and analysts have closely watched the market for the
vaccine.
One key aspect of Comirnaty’s market analysis is the supply
and demand for the vaccine. As the vaccine is highly effective and
there is a high demand for it, the supply of the vaccine has been limited
in some areas. This supply vs demand imbalance has led to a situation
where the demand for the vaccine is greater than the supply, which has
caused prices for the vaccine to rise temporarily. Another critical
aspect of Comirnaty’s market analysis is the elasticity of the vaccine’s
demand. Elasticity refers to the degree to which a product’s demand
changes in response to changes in its price. In the case of Comirnaty,
the demand for the vaccine has been relatively inelastic, meaning that
the demand for the vaccine has not changed significantly even as its
price has increased. This inelasticity is likely because the vaccine is
seen as essential for public health, and people are willing to pay a
higher price to get it.
Overall, Comirnaty’s market analysis has shown that the
vaccine has a high level of demand, a limited supply, and a relatively
inelastic demand. These factors have all contributed to the vaccine’s
market performance and will continue to be essential factors to
consider as the market for the vaccine evolves. Moreover, BioNTech
has continued to expand its portfolio and partnerships, including
collaborating with Chinese company Fosun Pharma to develop and
commercialise mRNA-based therapies in China. The company is also
working on several other mRNA-based therapies for cancer, influenza,
and other diseases.
In terms of future expectations, the COVID-19 vaccines market
will likely continue to evolve and adapt to the changing situation of the
pandemic. As new virus variants emerge, manufacturers may need to
develop new vaccines or adapt existing ones to remain effective.
Additionally, as more people are vaccinated, the demand for vaccines
may decrease, leading to potential changes in the market structure.
Overall, the future of the COVID-19 vaccines market is uncertain, but
it is likely to continue being a key area of focus in the global fight
against the pandemic.
131
Literature review
The pharmaceutical sector is regarded as an oligopoly market
since it is a unique market with a small number of significant firms and
numerous customers. Each vendor controls a substantial portion of the
market. Each industry in an oligopoly has a significant role to play in
the market and has the potential to affect how much a product is sold
for. In addition, there are many consumers in the market. Since there
are so many, no single customer can have an impact on the product's
market price. New enterprises face a few obstacles to entrance, many
of which are essentially identical to monopoly-era obstacles. Although
exceedingly challenging, entry into the new firm is not impossible. In
addition, cartels may be formed by industries to avoid competition. A
cartel is a formally recognised arrangement among businesses to limit
market competition. Prices in an oligopoly market may be controlled,
and since each rival firm responds promptly to a change in price, the
market price remains fixed. Additionally, industries tend to avoid price
competition, Craig & Malek, (1995).
Once the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the
COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic in March 2020 (Cucinotta &
Vanelli, 2020), many pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies
rushed to research and develop new vaccines. Moderna and BioNTech
with Pfizer, were the first to take the initiative (BioNTech Investor
Relations, n.d.; Cucinotta & Vanelli, 2020; Steenhuysen & Kelland,
2020). Both vaccines used the novel messenger ribonucleic acid
(mRNA) approach.The COVID-19 vaccines market started as an
oligopoly, with a few major players dominating the market. However,
as the pandemic continued to spread and the demand for vaccines
increased, the market evolved into a more competitive structure known
as monopolistic competition. This market structure is characterised by
firms producing similar but differentiated products, such as vaccines
with varying efficacy rates and side effects.
The WHO approved the COVID-19 emergency use list for
certain types of vaccines. This list was made for the countries that
could not go through all the laboratory tests and procedures due to a
lack of resources; however, they needed to save their people from the
virus and provide them with a vaccine to be used. Therefore, the WHO
has prepared a list of vaccines that can be used for public health
emergencies (World Health Organization (WHO), 2022). Among the
list, the top three vaccines that had the highest number of approved
countries included the COMIRNATY vaccine, VAXZEVRIA vaccine,
and SPIKEVAX vaccines, which Pfizer/BioNTech, AstraZeneca and
132
Moderna Biotech, developed respectively (Snyder & Root-Wiley,
2020; World Health Organization (WHO), 2022).
According to the UNICEF COVID-19 vaccine market
dashboard, there are 50 vaccines at least approved by one national
authority, with more than eighteen billion doses supplied globally with
a reported price ranging between 2$ and 120$ per dose (UNICEF
Supply Division, 2022). Currently, the COVID-19 vaccines market is
in a state of monopolistic competition, with multiple firms competing
for market share. Comirnaty, developed by BioNTech and Pfizer, is
currently the leader of the COVID-19 vaccines market. It has been
distributed widely and has demonstrated high efficacy rates in clinical
trials, leading to high demand for the vaccine. However, other
vaccines, such as Moderna and AstraZeneca’s Vaxzevria, compete for
market share, leading to a dynamic and competitive market.
The COVID-19 vaccination started by the end of 2020 when
the first emergency-use-approved vaccines were shipped worldwide.
From the end of 2020 till today, the peak of COVID-19 vaccination
has been fluctuating, with the highest peaks approximately between
the second and fourth quarter of 2021 (Mathieu et al., 2020). Since the
beginning of 2022, a considerable drop has happened, probably due to
multiple factors (Mathieu et al., 2020).
We propose that the reason behind this vaccination drop might
be that people globally started to focus on other essential aspects such
as inflation, social inequality, unemployment, violence and crime,
corruption, and taxes, while Coronavirus has dropped to eighth ranking
in what worries people in 27 counties on April 2022 (Ipsos, 2022).
Currently, BioNTech with Pfizer has announced many COVID-19
vaccines products other than the original Comirnaty vaccine, such as
the Bivalent (Original and Omicron BA.4/BA.5) vaccine, Comirnaty
and influenza combination mRNA vaccine, and BNT162b4 (T cell
antigen mRNA encoding for SARS-CoV-2 non-spike proteins)
vaccine (BioNTech, 2022; Pfizer, 2022).
Methodology
Using data of Comirnaty vaccine for units sold and units
delivered to describe market forces relationship and calculate elasticity
depending on data from the BioNTech company’s quarterly financial
results and corporate updates documents since Q2/2020 (BioNTech
Investor Relations, n.d.). Prices were obtained through the same
method in addition to COVID-19 Market Dashboard (UNICEF Supply
Division, 2022).
133
We used the regression equation to test the price effect on
buying decision-making within the duration started Q2/2020 up to and
including Q3/2022. Moreover, we used SWOT and PESTEL to
consider the factors that affected BioNTech’s success.
Demand driving factors
Three elements that have a significant impact on the
pharmaceutical sector are the cost of associated items, consumer
income, population size, and technology. First, there are two sorts of
linked commodities: substitute goods and complementary goods.
Since both drugs can be used in place of one another, they are both
called substitute goods. The demand for other goods rises when the
price of one commodity does, Abdou, and Ali (2020).Up to the third
quarter of 2022, most COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers dealt with
governments and organisations to sell their vaccines and not offer them
directly to end consumers. This situation started to change with the
October announcement of Pfizer/BioNTech that their Comirnaty
vaccine will be offered to the public with a price ranging between
110$-130$ which could be bared cost by private or public insurance
systems in the USA market (Erman, Humer, Berkrot, & Pullin, 2022).
Frequent new variants appeared every couple of months since
the pandemic’s start, affecting how the population perceived the
vaccination efficacy with these variants (Al-Qerem, Al Bawab,
Hammad, Ling, & Alasmari, 2022; Rzymski, Poniedziałek, & Fal,
2021). Moreover, one of the demand-affecting factors is the new
substitutes offered even by BioNTech, like Next-Generation vaccines.
Change in the population’s desire to vaccinate is another
demand-affecting factor, as mentioned earlier, which is an expected
outcome of the dynamic change in global population concern (Ipsos,
2022; Mathieu et al., 2020).
Figure 1 shows the demand curve for Comirnaty’s vaccine and
how its demand is affected by different factors.
134
Figure 1. Demand Curve for the BioNTech/Pfizer Comirnaty vaccine
globally.
43 42.6
42.3 42.2 42.3 EU (27) Euro area (17)
41.9
42
41.3 41.4 41.3 41.3
41.9
41.5 41.6 40.9 40.9 40.9
40.8
41 41.3 41.4 40.6
40.3 40.2
40.8 40.7 40.7 40.6
40 40.4
40.1 40.1 40.2
39.9
39.7 39.6
39
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Data extracted from (BioNTech Investor Relations, n.d.; UNICEF
Supply Division, 2022).
Elasticity of demand
The elasticity of demand (ED) is the degree of response in
demand due to price change. Comirnaty’s ED has fluctuated over the
quarters since BioNTech and Pfizer announced a collaboration for
vaccine development in March 2020 (BioNTech Investor Relations,
2020). ED analysis shows the beginning of 3 quarters of Comirnaty
with elastic demand, which means the price changes affected the
quantity demanded considerably. This behaviour is rational due to the
development stage of the vaccine, and the first authorisation from
health authorities received in Q4 2020.
With the announcement of the Delta variant in Q2 2021 (World
Health Organization (WHO), 2022b), the elasticity changed to perfect
inelastic demand as the average price/dose decreased, but the quantity
demanded remained the same. This pattern is explained by the
concerns regarding the COVID-19 efficacy with these newly identified
variants. Afterwards, two-quarters of elastic demand (Q3 2021-Q4
2021), then inelastic demand till Q3 2022. These fluctuations are
explained by the availability of new substitutes from new market
entrants and newly developed versions of the old vaccine.
135
Supply driving factors
One factor contributing to Comirnaty’s success is the increased
governmental funding, support, and subsidies that the company
received at the early stages of the vaccine’s development. This support
allowed the company to invest in research and development and scale
up production to bring the vaccine to market quickly and effectively.
As a result, Comirnaty gained a strong position within the market and
established itself as a leading provider of COVID-19 vaccines.
Another factor that has affected Comirnaty’s market analysis
is the increase in taxes and the movement from governmental
agreement to individual final consumer commercialisation. With the
wide availability of the Comirnaty vaccine, governments have begun
to shift the responsibility for purchasing and distributing the vaccine
from public health agencies to individual consumers. This behaviour
has resulted in increased taxes on the vaccine and a shift in how the
vaccine is commercialised.
A third factor contributing to Comirnaty’s market success is
the improvement in technology and the scale-up of production. As the
demand for the vaccine has increased, BioNTech was able to invest in
new technologies and processes that have allowed it to increase
production and meet the growing demand for the vaccine. These vast
investments have helped to ensure that the vaccine supply can keep up
with the demand and have allowed Comirnaty to maintain its position
as a leading provider of COVID-19 vaccines.
Another factor that has impacted Comirnaty’s market analysis
is the production of alternative products, such as the Omicron variant
vaccine. As the COVID-19 pandemic has evolved, new variants of the
virus have emerged, and Comirnaty has responded by developing new
effective vaccines against these variants. This new development has
helped Comiranty to maintain its position as a leader in the market and
has allowed it to continue to provide practical solutions to the
challenging situations posed by the pandemic. One factor that has
affected Comirnaty’s market analysis is the presence of 46 direct
competitors. As the demand for COVID-19 vaccines has increased,
many other companies have entered the market, offering their vaccines
and competing with Comirnaty for market share. These new entrants
have created a highly competitive environment, and Comirnaty has
had to work hard to maintain a leadership position in the market.
Another factor that is expected to impact Comirnaty’s market
analysis is the expectation that the individual price of the vaccine will
be raised in the USA up to 130$ starting next year. This price increase
136
is likely driven by factors including the increasing cost of raw
materials, research and development investment to continue improving
the vaccine and keep pace with emerging virus variants.
A final factor that has impacted Comirnaty’s market analysis is
the decrease in production and raw material costs that has resulted
from improvements in the global supply chain. As the demand for the
vaccine has increased, Comirnaty has been able to negotiate better
deals with suppliers and improve its supply chain efficiency, which has
allowed it to decrease its production costs and remain competitive in
the market.
Figure 2 shows the supply curve for Comirnaty’s vaccine and
how its supply is affected by different factors.
Figure 2. Supply Curve for the BioNTech/Pfizer Comirnaty vaccine
globally.
43 42.6
42.3 42.2 42.3 EU (27) Euro area (17)
41.9
42
41.3 41.4 41.3 41.3
41.9
41.5 41.6 40.9 40.9 40.9
40.8
41 41.3 41.4 40.6
40.3 40.2
40.8 40.7 40.7 40.6
40 40.4
40.1 40.1 40.2
39.9
39.7 39.6
39
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Data extracted from (BioNTech Investor Relations, n.d.; UNICEF
Supply Division, 2022).
Elasticity of supply
The elasticity of supply (ES) for the Comirnaty vaccine has
fluctuated over time, with both elastic and inelastic supply periods. In
Q1 2021, the ES indicated a highly elastic supply. This elastic supply
was likely due to the announcement of two new manufacturing
facilities. In Q2 2021, the elasticity of supply decreased, indicating an
elastic supply.
137
In Q3 2021, the ES increased more than in Q2 2021, indicating
a continued elastic supply. The announcement of a new plant in South
Africa may have influenced this elasticity of supply. In Q4 2021, the
ES decreased significantly, indicating an inelastic supply. This
inelasticity may have been due to the FDA expanding the label of
Comirnaty to include use as a booster for children.
Also, in Q1 2022, the ES increased again to indicate a return to
an elastic supply. This return to elastic supply may have been due to
the developing of a new vaccine for the Omicron variant. In Q2 2022,
the ES decreased, indicating an inelastic supply. The announcement of
several new COVID-19 developments other than the original
Comirnaty vaccine may have influenced this inelasticity. Finally, in
Q3 2022, the ES decreased even further and kept indicating a highly
inelastic supply. This inelasticity may have been due to the approval
of an Omicron-adapted bivalent vaccine booster.
Overall, the elasticity of supply for the Comirnaty vaccine has
been variable, with periods of both elastic and inelastic supply.
Supply and Demand Equilibrium
The equilibrium point for Comirnaty was calculated by
matching the linear trendlines equations for supply and demand, as
shown in Figure 3. This equilibrium point indicates that at this price,
the quantity of Comirnaty doses supplied by the manufacturer will
equal the quantity demanded by consumers. The result is that the
equilibrium price for a Comirnaty dose is $32.25, and the equilibrium
quantity is 110.79 million doses. This equilibrium point is the point at
which the market for Comirnaty is considered to be in balance, with
neither surplus nor shortage for supply and demand exists.
138
Figure 3. Demand and Supply equilibrium Curve for the Comirnaty
vaccine globally.
43 42.6
42.3 42.2 42.3 EU (27) Euro area (17)
41.9
42
41.3 41.4 41.3 41.3
41.9
41.5 41.6 40.9 40.9 40.9
40.8
41 41.3 41.4 40.6
40.3 40.2
40.8 40.7 40.7 40.6
40 40.4
40.1 40.1 40.2
39.9
39.7 39.6
39
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Data extracted from (BioNTech Investor Relations, n.d.; UNICEF
Supply Division, 2022).
SWOT analysis
Strengths Using a strategic partnership and collaboration with
a substantial pharmaceutical company like Pfizer led BioNTech to
capture the opportunity and have the capabilities to develop the
vaccine and achieve the current massive growth.
BioNTech and Pfizer, taking the first move in COVID-19
vaccine innovation, booked their place in the leadership of this new
market. With a long-term focus on many immunological therapies
(oncology and infectious diseases), BioNTech has a promising
situation within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.
This variety of pipeline products also improves their investment plans
as the profits they gain from Comirnaty, and other COVID-19 vaccines
are used in other disciplines, pipeline drugs and clinical trials.
Weaknesses The absence of a commercial team inside
BioNTech at the beginning negatively impacted their ability to finalise
the commercial operations. However, with support from the Pfizer
team and massive financial support, BioNTech started a hiring
campaign for the entire commercial team.
139
Currently, BioNTech company does not own other
commercialised products other than the COVID-19 vaccines portfolio.
BioNTech’s dependence on outsourcing and partnership to
succeed can raise questions about its ability to develop final products
that could succeed in the market without these partnerships.
Threats One of the principal threats the Comirnaty vaccine
faces is the possibility of people losing their desire to be vaccinated.
Also, the number of authorised vaccines worldwide increased
dramatically to a limit that could be considered a threat even for a
market leader such as Comirnaty.
Opportunities There is a vast potential for mRNA technology
in healthcare and therapeutics, which allows BioNTech to succeed and
be the market leader in that technology-based treatments. Moreover,
BioNTech currently has the power of peed design and manufacturing
abilities, especially for vaccines, which is considered an opportunity
to cope with any new potent coronavirus variants.
PESTEL analysis
Political Political factors have played a significant role in
Comirnaty’s market analysis. During September 2020 USA event,
nine vaccine-developing companies pledged to adhere to scientific
standards and integrity, which helped to build trust in the vaccine and
increase demand for it. Another example is the WHO’s COVAX
program is dedicated to making vaccines available worldwide, which
has helped increase the vaccine’s global supply and expand its market.
In addition, the vaccines are being offered free by the
government under pressure from the population, which has made them
more accessible to people who could not have been able to afford them
otherwise. Finally, the government has supported the development and
manufacture of the vaccine locally, which has helped to increase the
supply of the vaccine and reduce its cost.
Social Social factors have also had an impact on Comirnaty’s
market analysis. One negative social factor is the perception of
COVID-19 vaccine commercialisation, which has led some people to
view the vaccines as a profit-making venture rather than a public health
140
necessity. This perception has led to conspiracy theories, rumours, and
incorrect medical information about the vaccine, which has reduced
demand for the vaccine in some cases.
Economic Economic factors have also played a role in
Comirnaty’s market analysis. The global recession caused by
lockdowns and curfews has negatively impacted the economy,
reducing demand for vaccines in some areas. In addition, the impact of
the pandemic on the supply chain has caused disruptions at the global
level, which has increased the cost of the vaccine and reduced its
availability in some cases. However, the fast growth of the healthcare
sector has provided opportunities for companies like Comirnaty to
develop and market their vaccines, which has helped to increase
demand for the vaccine.
Technological Technological factors have also had an impact
on Comirnaty’s market analysis. The development of new mRNA
vaccine designs, such as the one used by Comirnaty, has helped to
increase the vaccine’s effectiveness and improve its market
performance. In addition, using new technologies in the manufacturing
process has helped increase the vaccine supply and reduce its cost.
Environmental Environmental factors significantly influence
the demand for Comirnaty and other vaccines. Climate change and
pollution have been suggested as key factors accelerating the incidence
of infectious diseases. As the global population rises and the
environment becomes increasingly degraded, the demand for vaccines
to protect against these diseases is likely to increase.
Legal Legal factors also play a role in the market analysis of
Comirnaty and other vaccines. The accelerated approval pathway by
health authorities, which allows for expedited approval with minimal
clinical trial data, has increased demand for Comirnaty and other
vaccines. Additionally, the numerous lawsuits and disputes over
patents for vaccine development products have resulted in a volatile
market. Furthermore, pricing is up to the company, and deviant
agreements with no means of price control lead to uncertainty in the
market.
141
Conclusions
The new substitutes offered by BioNTech are leading to a left
shift of Demand since Q2 2022. However, the focus and global support
for BioNTech and other COVID-19 vaccine developers decreased,
leading to higher operation and production costs and a shift in the
supply.
Once the business model of the Comirnaty vaccine changes
from a business-to-government (B2G) model to business to customer
(B2C) model in which the marketing and selling efforts of the vaccines
are directed to individuals and end consumers, the income and
consumer taste (preference for particular vaccine brand) is expected to
affect the demand which could be within fourth quarter 2022 to first
quarter 2023 in the case of BioNTech/Pfizer vaccines.
We expect BioNTech to lead the COVID-19 vaccine market
until they finish other product categories; afterwards, they may focus
more on the new product portfolio than the COVID-19 vaccine market.
Overall, the market for Comirnaty is complex and dynamic,
with demand and supply being influenced by various factors. Further
research is needed to understand the market and its implications for the
global fight against COVID-19.
Conflict of interest
The first author is an employee at West Pharmaceutical
Services Deutschland GmbH & Co KG, Eschweiler, Germany.
142
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