EllemanPaine Chapter 15
EllemanPaine Chapter 15
The 1911 Revolution marked the beginning of the Republican period (1912–49) in Chinese history.
The Republican period was an interregnum between the Qing dynasty and the Communist People’s
Republic of China that finally succeeded in reunifying the Qing empire minus Outer Mongolia and
Taiwan. In the interim, central power devolved to the provinces, where competing regional strongmen,
known as “warlords,” fought either to maintain their own autonomy or to expand their territory. This
continued the devolution of central power begun during the great mid-nineteenth-century rebellions,
when the Qing dynasty allowed provincial authorities to create semiautonomous local armies that later
became the nuclei of the warlord armies. Initially, General Yuan Shikai attempted to impose another
dynasty in Beijing. His death in 1916 marked the beginning of the warlord period, and was characterized
by worsening relations with Japan and an increasingly virulent nationalist movement among China’s in-
tellectuals and students. Sun Yat-sen tried to consolidate his political base in South China through a suc-
cession of governments in Guangzhou, while a North China power struggle erupted after Yuan’s death.
On February 15, 1912, the Nanjing Assembly unanimously elected Yuan Shikai as provisional
president; Li Yuanhong became provisional vice president five days later. Sun Yat-sen stepped down
on the condition that Yuan rule from Nanjing. Yuan’s power base, however, was in North China.
Units of the Beiyang Army rioted in various northern cities, apparently to lend credence to Yuan’s
claim that the restoration of order required his presence in the North. The Nanjing government
agreed that Yuan could rule from Beijing, where he was inaugurated as president of the Republic of
China on March 12, 1912. The Provisional Constitution precluded women’s suffrage, frustrating the
many women who had worked to establish the republic. As in previous periods of dynastic change,
the imperial bureaucracy remained in place, and Yuan simply took over the reins of power from his
Manchu predecessors. The enormous inertia of the imperial bureaucracy became a strong force of
continuity and a key impediment to radical change. Male suffrage expanded from about eight mil-
lion in the 1909 elections to forty million in the 1912–13 elections, or about 20 to 25 percent of
adult males.
Photo 15.1 In 1912, General Yuan Shikai became the president of the Republic of China,
after Sun Yat-sen, in return for convincing the Manchus to abdicate the throne. His presidency
helped set the stage for the warlord period that followed, in particular as he doled out
concessions to Russia and Japan in exchange for their support in his failed bid to become
China’s next emperor.
The F ounding of the Republic of China 283
Yuan sought more than simple personal aggrandizement; more importantly, he hoped to restore
China to grandeur. He intended to emulate the Japanese model of economic development, which relied
on centralized political control to impose controversial reforms, including the westernization of legal
and financial institutions. As in Meiji Japan, Yuan hoped that the legal reforms would enable him to
negotiate the end to extraterritoriality, while the financial reforms would create the basis for economic
development. He also realized that economic development required an educated citizenry, hence
his attempt to implement compulsory primary education for boys. In addition, he tried to promote
economic development through improved agronomy, transportation, and credit availability. He took
action on social issues, cracking down on opium smoking and production, and promoting married
women’s rights. As in Japan, his program was controversial, but unlike the Meiji reformers, Yuan did
not remain in power for a generation to complete the reforms. He soon became preoccupied, like the
Empress Dowager before him, not with the creative exercise of power but with its retention.
As a former general, Yuan deftly asserted his control over the armed forces, recentralized power, and
governed China through his guanxi network of hand-picked military officers. Once in office, armed force
became the basis of his power. His decision to disband the New Army eliminated its role as a lightning rod
for antigovernment opposition and also the possibility of its transformation into a national army. Yuan’s
decision to replace the New Army with a force loyal to him personally, not to China generally, was an
important step toward warlord rule. In January 1913, Yuan went even further, placing all of the military
governors directly under his authority in order to subsume them and their guanxi networks under his own.
In the capital, he systematically undermined the power of the cabinet and then of the National Assembly,
where the precursor of the Nationalist Party became a major obstacle to his plans.
During summer 1913, the so-called Second Revolution broke out. (See map 15.1.) The elections
in 1913 delivered a landslide victory in both houses of the parliament to Sun’s party. In response, it
appears that supporters of Yuan Shikai had a key supporter of Sun Yat-sen, Song Jiaoren, assassinated.
Song had been educated in Japan and had played a key role in forming the coalition of parties that
united to become the precursor of the Nationalist Party on August 25, 1912. His plans for a Western
parliamentary system of government threatened Yuan’s hope to recentralize power under a dictatorial
executive. A succession of mysterious deaths of those connected with the assassination ensued. When
Yuan tried to finance his activities independently of the opposition-dominated parliament by seeking
foreign loans, the legislature objected. Yuan then surrounded the parliament with troops, cashiered pro-
opposition military governors, and on May 6, 1913, banned the party. Sun Yat-sen called for a Second
Revolution. Seven provinces responded by declaring independence, but Yuan’s troops defeated them
in battle, while his generals established themselves as warlords along the Yangzi River. This ended the
Second Revolution, but at the price of greatly exacerbated North-South tensions.
The F ounding of the Republic of China 285
advisers throughout the Chinese government and police administration, Japanese domination of arms sales
to China, and Japanese development of Fujian province across the strait from their colony of Taiwan.
On March 13, 1915, when the United States protested this attempt to dominate China politi-
cally, militarily, and economically, Japan modified its fifth set of demands. It no longer required China
to accept Japanese police or an exclusive Japanese zone in Fujian province. On April 28, 1915, in the
midst of the uproar, Japan publicly offered to restore the Shandong concession to China.
The Japanese were simultaneously negotiating with Sun Yat-sen’s opposition government, but no known
agreement was reached. Sun accused Yuan of secretly agreeing in advance to accept Russian and Japanese
terms in return for their support for Yuan’s ambitions to become China’s new emperor. According to Sun:
“In fact, the Twenty-one Demands were presented by Japan at his [Yuan’s] own instigation; Japan did not, at
the beginning, press him to accept these Demands.”2 According to this view, Japan delivered its conditions in
the form of demands, instead of a formal treaty, in order to provide Yuan with a face-saving way to accept the
terms, whereas in reality, Yuan agreed to all of them in advance to further his own political agenda.
The treaty encapsulating the Twenty-one Demands became an international issue when the Paris Peace
Conference terminating World War I deliberated on the Shandong question. As Liang Qichao, the late
Qing revolutionary, later concluded, if China had openly resisted Japan in 1915, its claim at the Paris Peace
Conference that Shandong should be returned directly to China would have been very strong. Instead, Yuan
Shikai made the political calculation that he needed to focus on consolidating his own power domestically
before he could take on Japan or Russia. From Japan’s point of view, the new treaty would counterbalance
tsarist Russian efforts to expand into Outer Mongolia. Taking Shandong from Germany also avenged Japan
for German involvement in the Triple Intervention of 1895 that deprived Japan of the Liaodong Peninsula.
Yuan Shikai had no better luck dealing with Britain over Tibet. When news of the 1911 Revolu-
tion reached Tibet in 1912, the local population immediately expelled Chinese officials and troops
from Lhasa for the first time since the eighteenth century. (See the “Tibetan Minority” feature.) The
Tibetans then sought British aid to protect their new-found independence. Although the British suc-
cessfully pressured the Chinese into joining tripartite negotiations with Britain and Tibet, they were
unable to secure Chinese ratification of the resulting Simla Convention of 1914. It became an Anglo-
Tibetan agreement instead, dividing Tibet into Outer Tibet and Inner Tibet. The Dalai Lama would
rule Outer Tibet with de facto autonomy but under nominal Chinese suzerainty. Inner Tibet, also
known as Kham, encompassed the ethnic Tibetan regions of eastern Qinghai and Western Sichuan.
It was given a more vague status, but with the Dalai Lama preeminent in religious affairs. While the
British would not back the official independence that the Tibetans desired, they provided the Tibetans
with sufficient military aid to keep the Chinese out and gain favorable terms of trade for themselves.
Tibet did not return to Chinese rule until the People’s Liberation Army occupied it beginning in 1950.
Tibetan Minority
The Tibetans inhabit virtually inaccessible plateaus surrounded by mountains high above sea level. Only the main
valley, the location of the capital, Lhasa, is suitable for cultivation; the other mountain valleys can support only
grazing. The growing season is short and the rainfall scant, making for a harsh existence. Most Tibetans practice
the Lama variant of Mahayana Buddhism that incorporates elements of ancient Tibetan shamanism and magic.
Buddhism probably came to Tibet in the seventh century. At that time, the Tibetan empire expanded
into Nepal and Yunnan. Thereafter, it expanded northward to dominate the lucrative Silk Route trade as
far north as Kashgar and as far east as Xi’an, the modern name for the Tang dynasty (618–907) capital,
which the Tibetans sacked. Tibetan expansion ended with the assassination of their king in 842, while
Tang dynasty emperors tried to buy peace on the frontier by marrying off Han princesses to the kings of
Tibet. The Chinese have since claimed that these marriages document Tibet’s tributary status. At the end
of the twelfth century, many Indian Buddhists fled to Tibet to escape invading Muslim armies. When
the Mongols established the Yuan dynasty (1279–1368) in China, they also extended their influence over
Tibet, where Mongol domination continued until the Qing conquest of Tibet in the eighteenth century.
288 chapter 15
The Mongols recognized the authority of Tibet’s monks over both spiritual and temporal matters, giving
enormous authority to the clergy.
During the early Qing dynasty, the Fifth Dalai Lama (1617–82) and the Seventh Dalai Lama
(1708–57) reached an accommodation with the Qing. They ruled through a monastic bureaucracy that
kept peace at home, power concentrated in key monastic institutions and a limited number of lay aristo-
cratic clans, and Tibet demilitarized so that the Qing felt little need to interfere. The British invasion in
1903–4 that sent the Dalai Lama fleeing to Mongolia, however, awakened Chinese fears of border security.
The Anglo-Russian rivalry for dominance of Central Asia had fueled British fears concerning the defense
of India and resulted in a military expedition to Tibet. In response, the Chinese allowed the Dalai Lama
to return home but rapidly reinvigorated their administration of Tibet and efforts at Sinification. When
the Tibetans resisted, the Qing deployed their army, occupying Tibet in 1910 and sending the Dalai Lama
back into exile, this time to India. Upon the fall of the Qing dynasty, the Dalai Lama raised an army and
took control of Tibet in 1913. Tibet remained autonomous until 1950.
In the interim the Thirteenth Dalai Lama (1876–1933) tried to establish a centralized nation-state,
causing the Panchen Lama, the second most important incarnate lama after the Dalai Lama, to flee to
China in 1924. Han nationalists accepted the Qing definition of China and wanted Tibet back. Prior to
Nationalist reunification of China in 1927, governments in Beijing emphasized the “Harmonious Union
of the Five Races,” meaning the Han, the Manchus, the Mongols, the Tibetans, and the Muslims, and
sometimes referred to the post-Qing government as the Republic of the Five Races. The Tibetans, like
the Muslims and Mongols, understood this union to mean Han domination in practice. Thereafter, the
Nationalists emphasized Sun Yat-sen’s Three People’s Principles, but given the numerous concerns of the
new Nationalist government, there was little impact on Tibet. On the contrary, in the 1920s and 1930s,
Tibetan Buddhism greatly influenced many Chinese, who found solace in the religion at a time when
China devolved into chaos. The Nationalist government sought to cultivate ties with Tibet, sponsored a
variety of joint educational institutions, and gave legal protection to Buddhist land holdings.
Photo 15.2 Tibet’s approximately two million ethnic Tibetans occupy one of the most inaccessible
regions in the world. Despite persistent attempts by China to dominate Tibet, the Tibetan people
have so far resisted assimilation. The spiritual leader of the Tibetans is the Dalai Lama, now living in
exile. This picture is of the Thirteenth Dalai Lama, who died in 1933. His successor was identified
in 1935, and officially became the Fourteenth Dalai Lama on February 22, 1940.
The F ounding of the Republic of China 289
In 1950, the People’s Liberation Army invaded Tibet but initially tolerated Buddhist institutions. When
China included Tibet in its land reform program that overturned the aristocratic-monastic social order, the
Tibetans unsuccessfully revolted and the Fourteenth Dalai Lama (1935–) fled to India, where he has remained
ever since. During the Cultural Revolution (1966–76), China tried to eradicate Tibetan culture as part of its
campaign to eliminate the Four Olds: old ideas, old culture, old customs, and old habits. China shut down
virtually all monasteries in this period and imprisoned many monks; numerous Tibetans perished. The Tibet-
ans revolted again in the 1980s, which resulted in another wave of prison sentences and executions.
The flowering of Tibetan written culture occurred from the tenth through sixteenth centuries with
the publication of numerous religious works. Judging from Tibet’s architectural heritage, it reached the
height of its prosperity during the early and middle period of Mongol domination from the thirteenth
through sixteenth centuries. Numerous Buddhist temples and pagodas date to this period, but almost all
were destroyed during the Cultural Revolution.
Traditionally, the Tibetans raised yaks, a beast resistant to the cold. They relied on yak milk and
meat for food, the hair for textiles, and the live animal for transportation. Most of the population were
serfs and lived in dire poverty. Up to one-third of the male population became monks, which meant that
their maintenance depended in part on the alms of others. Foreigners who visited Lhasa in the nineteenth
and early twentieth centuries were appalled by its filth. Human and animal excrement, garbage, and even
dead animals littered the city streets. Few educational opportunities were available, so the vast majority of
the population remained illiterate. Today one-fifth of Tibetans remain in poverty. In 1990, 45 percent of
men over age fifteen remained illiterate, as did 80 percent of women of childbearing age. The Chinese have
argued that their involvement in Tibet has been an attempt to drag the Tibetans into the modern world
and to improve their standard of living. Administratively, the Chinese have divided the areas of Tibetan
population into Tibet (formerly Outer Tibet), and Qinghai and Western Sichuan (formerly Inner Tibet).
People’s Liberation Army troops continue to garrison the region. A railway trunk line was completed in
2006 and will greatly facilitate Han migration to Tibet. The latest round of unrest began on March 14,
2008, to coincide with the forty-ninth anniversary of the 1959 uprising against Chinese rule.
ing in its domestic affairs. This definition fit with the U.S. Open Door Policy. In December 1911 he
urged the Chinese to foster nationalism in order to honor China and showcase the distinctive traits of
the Chinese people.
In 1918, Sun presented a detailed definition of nationalism in his Memoirs of a Chinese Revolution-
ary, calling for a united Chinese Republic in order to combine China’s various nationalities into a pow-
erful nation. In 1919, he integrated President Woodrow Wilson’s views on national self-determination
into his Three People’s Principles, calling on the Han
to merge in all sincerity with the Manchus, Mongols, Muslims, and Tibetans in one
melting pot to create a new order of Chinese nationalism, just as America has produced
the world’s leading nationalism by melding scores of different people, black and white.3
Sun continued to support Wilsonian nationalism in a later book, China’s Revolution, published in early
1923, defining nationalism as “unity and equality of races within China, and China’s rights among the
nations of the world.”4 Both before and after World War I, his nationalistic goals included protecting
Chinese sovereignty from foreign interference, guaranteeing the rights of China’s ethnic minorities, and
gradually melding these different groups into one nationality.
In late 1917, in opposition to the attempt by the northern warlord Duan Qirui to assert control
over the government in Beijing, Chen Jiongming and Sun’s party again combined forces. On August 31,
1917, Sun set up his first of three rival governments in Guangzhou. (See table 15.2.) Sun called his
government the Constitution Protection Movement and his military force the Constitution Protection
Army, but he lacked direct control over his armed forces. These remained under the command of Chen
Jiongming. Together they formed an alternate government to Beijing. Although Premier Duan Qirui
in Beijing sent troops to destroy the Guangzhou government, infighting among the northern warlords
prevented their success. This failure contributed to Duan’s resignation on November 22, 1918.
As Chen Jiongming tried to create a consolidated military base in Guangdong and Fujian prov-
inces, Sun Yat-sen soon ran into warlord troubles of his own. In May 1918, when the local power
brokers in Guangzhou deprived Sun of authority within the new government, he left for Shanghai,
where he reorganized his political party yet again. On October 10, 1919, on the eighth anniversary of
the Wuchang Uprising, he renamed the party the Chinese Nationalist Party (Zhongguo Guomindang,
Kuomintang or KMT). For simplicity, from 1914 on, it will be referred to as the Nationalist Party and
its members as Nationalists. This is the same party that long ruled Taiwan and remains a major politi-
cal force there. By 1920, Chen defeated the rival warlord in Guangxi and Sun had plans to return to
Guangzhou to set up a new government; from Guangzhou, he hoped to launch a military expedition
northward to unite China. Sun returned to Guangzhou to his second opposition government, with
himself as president, on April 2, 1921.
During most of these years, Sun’s Guangzhou governments did not have a specific domestic or
foreign policy program or even a clear plan on how to reunite China. Sun also lacked a well-organized
army to defeat the northern warlords. This required funds, military advisers, and modern armaments.
Although Sun tried to obtain foreign support, the major powers all recognized the Beijing government.
Unifying China under the Nationalist Party became possible only after Sun allied with Moscow in
January 1923 and received military aid from the Soviet-funded Communist International (Comintern).
Decapitation of a guanxi network meant a power struggle among its competing components and
rival networks to reconstitute a personal power base under a successor. The lack of institutional mecha-
nisms for succession in China has made the political process opaque to Chinese and foreigners alike.
Guanxi networks are inherently secretive, since power revealed is power diminished. Conceptually, one
can think of a guanxi network as a prolific family tree, with all branches and generations alive simulta-
neously. The original ancestor sits at the head of the network of connections. He can call upon the next
generation, or branches of the tree, who in turn call upon their subsidiary branches, and so on, even
though he does not necessarily know the extent and strength of the guanxi networks of his subordinates;
nor do the subordinates know the full extent or strength of the networks of their superiors.
Upon Yuan Shikai’s death, Vice President Li Yuanhong succeeded to the presidency on June 7,
1916, naming Duan Qirui, Yuan’s aide and powerful Beijing warlord, as his premier. There was an
initial dispute over which constitution should prevail—the original 1912 constitution or Yuan’s 1914
document providing much stronger presidential powers. President Li agreed to return to the 1912 con-
stitution and restore the original National Assembly in exchange for promises by the southern provinces
to rejoin the Republic. This compromise kept China nominally unified during late 1916 and early
1917. Although the Republican government had official authority, warlords and their armies actually
monopolized the real power.
Li Yuanhong and Duan Qirui both lacked the prestige of Yuan Shikai and proved unable to reglue
the Republic. China fell into a ten-year period of civil war and chaos as Yuan’s generals competed
to reconstitute his guanxi network under their personal control. China quickly divided into regional
The F ounding of the Republic of China 293
governments under local warlords. The country also divided on North-South lines: In the North, a
succession of warlord governments took control of Beijing; in the South, Sun Yat-sen founded his own
republican government in Guangzhou, heavily dependent on the warlord Chen Jiongming.
Duan Qirui, who became the leader of the Anhui Clique, served as Yuan’s minister of war, as his
personal envoy to convince Li Yuanhong to serve as vice president, and as the prime minister. By 1914,
he became the most powerful supporter of Yuan Shikai, but his control over the promotions in the Bei-
yang Army meant that many of the younger officers were more loyal to him than to Yuan. When Yuan
tried to reassert his control over the military, Duan responded by opposing Yuan’s plans to become
monarch. The ensuing power struggle lasted until Yuan’s sudden death. Although Vice President Li
Yuanhong assumed the presidency, Duan retained control over the Beiyang Army and sought to fund
his army through his connections with Japan.
In the fall of 1916, another associate of Yuan Shikai, Cao Rulin, who had studied law at Waseda
and Chūō Universities in Tokyo and had diplomatic connections through his service in the Qing For-
eign Ministry, presented Duan with a plan to reunify China by manipulating the foreign powers. Cao
pledged his diplomatic connections to negotiate Japanese loans to underwrite Duan’s army. To placate
Britain, France, and the United States, Duan justified this military modernization by acceding to the
Entente’s demands to enter World War I against Germany. Duan then turned to Japan for massive war
loans. The newly modernized armies, however, would be used to reunify China, not to fight in Europe.
The Japanese, in turn, wanted to maximize their sphere of influence in China while the European pow-
ers were preoccupied with the war in Europe. In return for the Nishihara loans negotiated from 1917 to
1918, Japan received valuable mining, banking, railway, armaments, and other contracts. No accurate
records of the loans were ever made public because the Japan connection was extremely controversial.
Premier Duan Qirui’s plan to dominate China backfired. When he declared war on Germany and
Austro-Hungary without parliamentary approval, the legislature demanded his resignation. President
Li Yuanhong agreed to resign, but a number of mainly northern pro-Duan provinces declared their
independence from the Republic and threatened to attack Beijing. During the infighting, there was a
brief attempt from July 1 to 12, 1917, to revive the Qing dynasty by restoring to the throne the former
Xuantong emperor (Henry Puyi). Duan put an end to this attempt by sending his army to Beijing. Li
Yuanhong was compelled to resign, but was replaced by Duan’s Beiyang Clique rival, Feng Guozhang.
When Duan convened a new National Assembly packed with loyal supporters, the political parties of
South China formed a separate government in Guangzhou under Sun Yat-sen. This was Sun’s First
Guangzhou government.
The Beiyang Army then split into the Anhui and Zhili Cliques. Duan wanted to launch a military
expedition to suppress the Guangzhou government and his supporters became known as the Anhui
Clique, named after his native province. His rivals became known as the Zhili Clique, named for the
native province of its leader, another protégé of Yuan Shikai, Feng Guozhang, who favored a diplomatic
solution to China’s North-South division that did not require Japanese financing. Duan’s inability to
restore central control over Hunan and Sichuan provinces led to his forced resignation in the fall of
1917. But the Zhili Clique did not remain in power for long. Pressure from Duan forced the govern-
ment to resume its military campaign to pacify Hubei and Hunan. On March 19, 1918, the majority
of the Beiyang Army generals and eighteen military governors demanded that Duan be restored as
premier, which occurred on March 23, 1918. Support from the Manchurian warlord and leader of the
Fengtian Clique, Zhang Zuolin, also known for his Japanese connections, helped tip the balance of
power in Duan’s favor.
Thereafter, Duan ruled through a combination of military and civil authority. His Japanese-funded
modernized military force, known as the Northwestern Frontier Army, was intended to reunify China,
while his Anfu Club, named for Anfu Street, the location of its headquarters, marshaled supporters to
dominate the parliament elected in 1918, the so-called Anfu Parliament that replaced the original 1912
parliament. Anfu Club discipline did not endure for long but succumbed to factionalism. Duan’s insis-
tence on a military rather than a negotiated reunification of China angered many, while his financial con-
nections with Japan alienated Chinese nationalists. In the fall of 1918, Feng Guozhang resigned from the
294 chapter 15
presidency and Duan Qirui from the premiership, but Duan continued to dominate the government from
behind the scenes for the next two years. His popularity plummeted, however, as a result of his dealings
with Japan, intrigues at home, and negotiations at the Paris Peace Conference terminating World War I.
immediate $9 million advance. Chinese acceptance of the money meant that under international law
Beijing recognized the continued validity of the Twenty-one Demands as embodied in its May 25,
1915, treaty with Tokyo. This undermined the Chinese argument that Japan had forced the 1915
agreement on China as well as China’s case for direct restitution of the Shandong concession from
Germany, which was Beijing’s original goal in declaring war on Germany and Austria.
Like Yuan Shikai, who signed agreements that endured long after his death, the northern warlord
Duan Qirui, who was repeatedly in and out of power during the 1917–18 period, cut a deal with Japan
that gave him immediate cash at the expense of his country’s long-term interests. Once these deals were
signed, they became international law. While preoccupied with these secret dealings with Japan, the
Beijing government missed a historic opportunity to take advantage of the Russian Revolution in 1917
to restore Chinese sovereignty over Russia’s vast concessions in Manchuria. This, however, would not
have benefited Duan directly, but rather his rival, the Manchurian warlord Zhang Zuolin, so nothing
came of it. In the warlord period, China was fractured by rival warlord guanxi networks whose primary
interests were regional, not national.
The Sino-Japanese agreements were kept secret not only from the Chinese people, but also from
China’s own diplomatic representatives at the Paris Peace Conference. China’s lead representative, V. K.
Wellington Koo, apparently was not informed of their terms until January 1919. Although Washington
had not recognized the Twenty-one Demands, it did recognize the rule of international law. China’s own
diplomacy left the American diplomats little room for maneuver. Not only had Japan signed agreements
with all of the major Allied powers backing its claim to the Shandong concession, but it had concluded
treaties with China during 1915 and 1918 that did likewise. Although the Chinese delegates tried to
argue that Japan had compelled China to sign the Sino-Japanese agreements disposing of the Shandong
concessions, Beijing’s acceptance of a cash advance from Japan in 1918 undermined this argument. As
the reformer Liang Qichao pointed out after the conclusion the Paris Peace Conference, the 1918 agree-
ments rendered “China’s trump card . . . at once ineffective.”5 When pieces of the convoluted diplomacy
became public, the visceral popular outrage greatly amplified its importance.
Conclusions
The collapse of the Qing dynasty put institutional change at center stage on the political agenda. Deter-
mining the future course of Chinese politics was an inherently contentious but inescapable issue. In the
absence of legitimate political institutions, these momentous decisions were ultimately resolved through
political assassinations and on the battlefield, where military leaders marshaled rival armies and cobbled
together rival governments on the basis of guanxi. For several decades, warlords buttressed by their
own personal followings vied to control China. When warlords died, their followers dispersed, only
to coalesce in some new combination around another. Therefore, few warlords left any institutional
legacy. Their exclusive focus on the military elements of power meant little progress enhancing effec-
tive government administration. Only the Nationalists and, later, the Communists made significant
progress on institution building.
Following the creation of a Republican government, President Yuan Shikai tried to install himself
as China’s new emperor. But the attempt found no public support. Yuan Shikai’s sudden death in 1916
meant the decapitation of his vast guanxi network. His followers vied to take power for themselves.
The Anhui Clique under Duan Qirui, the Zhili Clique under Feng Guozhang, the Manchurian Clique
under Zhang Zuolin, and Li Yuanhong, Yuan’s successor, played an intricate game of political chess
to control North China. All but Zhang Zuolin were rival offshoots of Yuan Shikai’s guanxi network.
While these were the main North China warlords, in the period from 1912 to 1928 there were more
than 1,300 Chinese in control of a personal army and a territorial base, meeting the minimum quali-
fications for a warlord.
Divisions between North and South China had become increasingly apparent ever since the Tai-
ping Rebellion. The Taipings, the 1911 Revolution, and Sun Yat-sen’s Guangzhou governments were
296 chapter 15
all South China attempts to overthrow North China rule. In the final years of Qing rule, North-South
divisions deepened when the South refused to rally behind the Manchus to expel the foreigners in the
Boxer Uprising. During the early Republic, intermittent civil war undermined stability in the North.
Competing factions shifted in and out of control over Beijing, which remained a symbol of central
control and governmental legitimacy. In South China, Sun Yat-sen’s Nationalist Party led a separatist
movement that opposed Yuan Shikai’s dictatorial powers, particularly after he tried to install himself as
emperor. A succession of governments attempted to rule from Guangzhou. Most were under warlords
allied with Sun’s Nationalist Party.
The beginning of World War I in Europe seemed to offer China an unexpected opportunity to
regain lost rights and privileges from the foreign powers. Chinese efforts first focused on Germany and
Austria, the two central powers, which were quickly dispossessed of their concessions in China. The
Bolshevik Revolution (1917) and the ensuing Russian Civil War (1918–22) seemed to offer the Chi-
nese the chance to retake Russia’s concessions. But with the European powers and the United States
preoccupied with the war in Europe, Japan stepped in to fill the power vacuum in China. Japan offered
Yuan Shikai and Duan Qirui the funds they needed to stay in power in exchange for expanded Japanese
influence in China. However, once signed, these agreements obligated China under international law.
Notes
1 Kuo Mojo, The Works of Kuo, vol. 1 trans. in Kai-yu Hsu, Twentieth Century Chinese Poetry (Garden
City, NY: Doubleday, 1963), 29.
2 Sun Yat-sen, The Vital Problem of China (Taipei: China Cultural Service, 1953), 55.
3 Cited in Julie Lee Wei, Ramon H. Myers, and Donald G. Gillin, Prescriptions for Saving China: Se-
lected Writings of Sun Yat-sen (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1994), 222–36.
4 Cited in Lyon Sharman, Sun Yat-sen: His Life and Its Meaning (Stanford, CA: Stanford University
Press, 1968), 286–89.
5 Cited in Bruce A. Elleman, Wilson and China: A Revised History of the Shandong Question (Armonk,
NY: M. E. Sharpe, 2002), 27.
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Chronology
1897 Germany occupies Jiaozhou Harbor
1898 Germany establishes concession at Qingdao on Jiaozhou Bay
1914–18 World War I
1914 Yuan Shikai declares Chinese neutrality in World War I
Japan declares war on Germany and Austria
Japan occupies the German concession in the Shandong Peninsula
1915 Japan presents Twenty-one Demands, becomes National Humiliation Day
Beginning of anti-Japanese movement
1917 Duan Qirui’s government declares war on Germany and Austria
Bolshevik Revolution in Russia
1918 Wilson issues Fourteen Points
Duan Qirui’s government signs secret agreements with Japan
1919 Versailles Peace Conference
May Fourth Movement
1921 Establishment of the Chinese Communist Party
1921–22 Washington Conference
1922 Japan returns the Shandong concession to China