UNIVERSITY
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Climate Change and Development
Midterm
Climate Change Risk Assessment and Management
Student name:
Student ID:
Date:
Subject: Climate Change Risk Assessment and Management
Question:
The two pages essay on what you have learned from ‘Raging earth’ including what
you can do at the moment and what you should do in the future for finding solution in
the difficult issues from climate change. If you include tables and/or figures, then you
are allowed to write the essay with 4 pages.
To address the climate extreme events discussed in the 'Raging Earth', this essay is
divided into an introduction section that learnt and highlights the main points from the
video, and a solutions section that focuses on adaptation and mitigation strategies.
1. Introduction (Learnt from the video):
Global warming leads to more frequent extreme weather conditions. Air and sea
temperatures have significantly increased, with Asia, particularly Vietnam, being
highly vulnerable to rising sea levels due to its long coastline.
Coastal erosion threatens the famous church in Nam Dinh province, prompting
Professor Emeritus Kazuya Yasuhara's research and concern for Vietnam and other
parts of Asia. Recent satellite images reveal a substantial shoreline extension of 240
meters in just 8 years. Rising sea temperatures in Vietnam result in an annual sea level
rise of approximately 20 cm, accelerating coastal erosion. Moreover, the Indian Ocean
experiences an average temperature rise of 0.6°C, causing increased evaporation,
rainfall, and the formation of tropical cyclones. In 2009, Bangladesh faced the
devastating impact of a cyclone that affected four million people, forcing 20% of
Gabura village's population to become climate refugees in Dhaka's slums.
Global air temperatures have rapidly increased since 1970, but a period of relative
stability, known as the "Hiatus," has been observed since 2000. Similar patterns have
been noted in sea water temperatures, aligning with air temperature until the 20th
century. However, a significant rise in deep sea water temperature (700m to 2000m
below the surface) has occurred, surpassing surface temperature. Professor Masahiro
Watanabe's research indicates that this deep water heat absorption from global
warming has acted as a barrier, limiting further air temperature rise. Sea surface
temperatures vary based on winds and currents, with equatorial SST generally higher.
An intriguing observation is that equatorial SST can be lower than midlatitude SST in
the Pacific Ocean, enhancing deep water heat absorption. The reasons behind this
phenomenon are still being investigated.
Increasing air temperatures have dire consequences, including higher than normal
rainfall in many areas and a projected 2-3°C rise in sea surface temperature in Japan
by the late 21st century, the highest increase worldwide. Professor Hisashi
Nakamura's simulations show that a 2°C temperature increase can bring about 30%
more rain than usual. Professor Masahiro Chigira's research on landslides reveals an
expected increase in their occurrence due to heightened rainfall. In 2009, an entire
village vanished and 400 lives were lost when 3,000 mm of rainfall in a few days
triggered a deep-seated landslide in Taiwan. Teruyuki Kato's research suggests that
rising sea temperatures can lead to tornadoes, particularly from massive cloud
formations like supercells. Supercells are predicted to be 2-3 times more likely to
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Subject: Climate Change Risk Assessment and Management
occur across Japan, with major cities like Tokyo at risk of tornadoes with wind speeds
reaching 300 km/hr according to current simulations.
2. Few of the solution for adaption and mitigation of extreme floods.
The primary focus of the solutions lies in addressing flood-related challenges. Among these
solutions, Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) stand out as they offer multiple benefits, including
ecosystem services and carbon sequestration. By incorporating NBS, we can harness the
power of nature to not only mitigate floods but also provide additional ecological advantages
and help combat climate change through carbon sequestration.
a) Seawalls: Seawalls are commonly used as a coastal defence measure to
protect against sea level rise and flooding. They are engineered structures
typically made of concrete or other materials that are constructed along the
shoreline to act as a barrier against incoming waves and storm surge. The
combined sea wall and submerged breakwater has proven to be more
effective in combating sea level rise and coastal erosion (Van Dang et al.,
2023). Sea walls protects from wave and storm surge, reducing the impact
on coastal arears and protecting communities. In many coastal areas, simple
and cost-effective rubble-mound groins have proven to be more effective in
protecting shorelines from erosion caused by rising sea levels (Rampin,
2023). Their affordability and relatively easy implementation make them a
practical choice for coastal protection efforts in the face of sea level rise.
b) Nature Based Solutions (NBS): The nature-based ecosystem services,
which include salt marshes, seagrass, mangroves, kelp forests, and coral
reefs, provide a range of benefits to local communities, apart from
protecting against coastal erosion and reducing wave energy (Paxton et al.,
2023). Apart from providing benefits to local communities and addressing
coastal erosion, mangroves, seagrass, and salt marshes fall into the category
of blue carbon ecosystems and act as carbon sequestration systems. These
natural habitats have the remarkable ability to capture and store large
amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, thereby mitigating the
impacts of climate change. By preserving and restoring these valuable
ecosystems, we can not only protect coastal areas and support biodiversity
but also contribute to global efforts in reducing greenhouse gas emissions
and combating climate change. In 2014, blue carbon ecosystem sequestered
the equivalent of more than 1% of national fossil fuel emission from large
countries like Colombia, Nigeria and Bangladesh (Paxton et al., 2023).
Nature-based solutions provide both short-term and long-term solutions for
mitigating climate change and adapting to climate extreme events. In many
cases, NBS has proven to be cost-effective and sustainable compared to
other hard infrastructure solutions. For every $100 invested in blue carbon
ecosystems, approximately 1 tonne of CO2 can be sequestered, amounting
to an estimated 11.3 GtCO2 per year (Griscom et al., 2017). These solutions
not only offer environmental benefits but also contribute to the overall well-
being of communities and the preservation of natural resources.
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Subject: Climate Change Risk Assessment and Management
c) Early warning system: Over the decades, early warning systems have been
drastically improved due to recent technologies. The technological
advancements, including numerical weather forecasting, radar nowcasting,
and the availability of high-resolution satellite data, have helped prepare
well for the extreme events (Cools et al., 2016). Numerical weather
forecasting have gained a more prominence in detecting surface water
floods, flash floods, debris flow, mud flows, rainfall induced landslides,
river floods, coastal floods, and typhoons (Alfieri et al., 2012). The data
collected from various sources like weather stations, satellites, and river
gauges can be used to analyse in numerical models to predict the likelihood
and severity of floods events. The potential floods can trigger an early
warning system on the potential damage it can be create. Early warning
systems help in developing effective evacuation plans by providing
sufficient lead time to evacuate people from high-risk areas. Society can
take proactive measures such as reinforcing infrastructure, implementing
flood protection measures, and stockpiling essentials supplies. By
integrating these components, an early warning system empowers
communities, authorities, and individuals to take preventive actions, reduce
flood-related risks, and minimize the impact of floods on lives and
infrastructure.
3. Reference:
1. Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., & Thielen, J. (2012).
Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe.
Environmental Science & Policy, 21, 35–49.
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVSCI.2012.01.008
2. Cools, J., Innocenti, D., & O’Brien, S. (2016). Lessons from flood early warning
systems. Environmental Science & Policy, 58, 117–122.
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVSCI.2016.01.006
3. Griscom, B. W., Adams, J., Ellis, P. W., Houghton, R. A., Lomax, G., Miteva, D.
A., Schlesinger, W. H., Shoch, D., Siikamäki, J. V., Smith, P., Woodbury,
P., Zganjar, C., Blackman, A., Campari, J., Conant, R. T., Delgado, C.,
Elias, P., Gopalakrishna, T., Hamsik, M. R., … Fargione, J. (2017). Natural
climate solutions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America, 114(44), 11645–11650.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710465114/suppl_file/pnas.1710465114.sapp.
pdf
4. Paxton, A. B., Riley, T. N., Steenrod, C. L., Smith, C. S., Zhang, Y. S., Gittman,
R. K., Silliman, B. R., Buckel, C. A., Viehman, T. S., Puckett, B. J., &
Davis, J. (2023). What evidence exists on the performance of nature-based
solutions interventions for coastal protection in biogenic, shallow
ecosystems? A systematic map protocol. Environmental Evidence 2023
12:1, 12(1), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1186/S13750-023-00303-4.
5. Rampin, a. (2023). Laboratory tests to evaluate the behaviour of a seawall
protecting the waterfront of agigea (romania).
https://thesis.unipd.it/handle/20.500.12608/41124
6. Van Dang, H., Park, H., Shin, S., Tomiczek, T., Cox, D. T., Lee, E., Lee, D., &
Lomonaco, P. (2023). Physical model comparison of gray and green
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Subject: Climate Change Risk Assessment and Management
mitigation alternatives for flooding and wave force reduction in an idealized
urban coastal environment. Coastal Engineering, 104339.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2023.104339.
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