CLIMATE CHANGE AND
MIGRATION
Theme 3:Connotation of Human Rights and Climate Change
By Khanjana Chauhan
JUNE 16, 2022
GLS LAW COLLEGE
[email protected] Contact number: 6355064171
Sr. TOPIC Page
No. No.
1. ABSTRACT …2
2. INTRODUCTION …3
3. WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE MIGRATION? …3
4. CLIMATE CHANGE MIGRATION THEN AND NOW …4
5. THE PREQUEL (BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE INDUCED …6
MIGRATION)
6. GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE …8
MIGRATION IN INDIA
7. GLOBAL EFFORTS TO REDUCE THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE …10
CHANGE
8. INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY STANCE ON CLIMATE ISSUES …11
9. GOVERNMENT EFFORTS TO REDUCE CLIMATE CHANGE …12
MIGRATION
1
CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION
Climate change is a global problem which is concerning the world over. Be it COP 26 at
Glasgow or the Sustainable Development Goals, they are focused on the impact of climate
change. Climate change has created migrants and not per se ‘refugees’. Refugees differ from
migrants in the sense that they can return to their place of origin once the danger is over or the
cause of their travel is eliminated but migration is long term and long lasting. Climate change
has forced migrants from Bangladesh, Srilanka, Afghanistan, Maldives, and other countries of
SAARC in Indian borders. They are unable to go back and survive. The question arises Why?
The research paper deals with this issue in particular. It deals with causes of climate change
such as air pollution, water pollution, noise pollution, land pollution, ecological destruction
and the sustainability of food chain crisis as major reasons for climate change migration.
As early as 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted the impact of climate
change on human migration where millions of people are displaced through shoreline erosion,
coastal flooding and agricultural disruptions among other such diversions. It links the increase
in Carbon Dioxide with decreasing economic activities in various countries. Why is there a
need for carbon tax or carbon credit in today’s world? It discusses the Glasgow Convention
and its aftermath. Thus, Climate change is a global phenomenon and Climate change migration
as well as its impact on livelihood is dealt as such.
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INTRODUCTION
“Environmental migrants are persons or group of persons, who for compelling reasons of
sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living
conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or chose to do so, either temporarily or
permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad.”
- International Organization for Migration
What is Climate change migration?
As the arguments for the scientific changes due to climate change are confident, their
consequences on the demographic distribution of human population are vague and unclear. It
is a strange phenomenon that the countries influencing climate change are not necessarily the
ones paying for it. The highest carbon producing countries can afford luxuries but the ones near
the equator are facing rampant issues of sudden warming of temperature and diversion of rains.
This impacts their lives through unexpected calamities and diversion of monsoons which
affects the basic element of economy- food sufficiency. These are the people who are forced
climate migrants and have to unwillingly travel leading to urban overpopulation and neglect.
It may be internal migration or international migration.
In India, seasonal migration is high because droughts and floods damage crops, and cyclones
that affect fishing. The country is bracing for rising sea levels in near future.1 Over 62 million
South Asian people may have to migrate from their homes due to slow onset climate disasters
such as sea-level rise, water stress, crop yield reductions, ecosystem loss and drought by 2050,
according to a new report by Climate Action Network South Asia (CANSA) and Action Aid
International. Over 62 million South Asian people may have to migrate from their homes due
to slow onset climate disasters such as sea-level rise, water stress, crop yield reductions,
ecosystem loss and drought by 2050, according to a new report by Climate Action Network
South Asia (CANSA) and Action Aid International.
Of course, people also leave their original locations because they want better opportunities
available elsewhere. That’s part of aspirational human nature and the simplest reason for
1
(Climate Migration predicted to rise in India amid extreme weather, 2021)
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migration. But there is a very large section of migrants now which isn’t leaving because of pull
migration but instead, push migration — people are being pushed out of their homes by
agrarian failure and growing economic distress. With this comes climate change — extreme
weather events are causing droughts, floods, infestations and crop losses.
This issue can be further divided into two things – climate change events and climate change
processes. The events of climate change include flooding, storms and glacial lake outburst
floods while climate change processes involve sea level rise, salinization of agricultural land,
desertification and growing water scarcity. events like drought and wildfire influence
socioeconomic factors and might drive people to cross international borders or relocate
domestically.
Climate change migration then and now
The study, published in Elsevier journal ‘Archeological research in Asia’ in November 2019,
established that the inhabitants of the Indus Valley civilization slowly migrated from the Indus
valley sites in the west to the Ghaggar-Hakra valley in the east.
It suggests that the migration was far more expansive than ever thought before. The reason
behind it is believed to be the gradual southward shift of Intertropical Convergence Zone. This
can be a reason for the shift of people for greener pastures. The shifting of Intertropical
convergence zone decreased monsoon rains, drying up rivers which would have made
agriculture difficult.
Anthropological climate migration today is similar to the Indus valley migration. Especially in
the low lying coastal regions and islands that often bear the brunt of extreme weather events
and sea level rise. Another report – World Migration Report 2020 was released by United
Nations in 2019. It establishes the role of natural disasters in migration by mentioning that
more people are displaced due to disasters in any given year than those newly displaced by
conflict and violence. The data revealed that more countries are affected by disaster
displacement.
According to Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, storms displaced 9.3 million people
and floods 5.4 million people in 2018. Global Environment Change published a report in
January 2019 which mentions that severe drought induced conditions led to armed conflict,
which in turn led to asylum seeking and migration.
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Heatwaves and floods, which used to be a once in a century events, are becoming more regular
occurrences. Displacement and rise in migration due to disasters has raised concerns on
increasing human trafficking. The United Nations Environment program estimates rgar
trafficking goes up by 20 – 30 % during disasters.
As per the Director of Sabin Center for Climate change law at Columbia Law School, US “At
least 21 million people globally are victims of human trafficking, typically involving sexual
exploitation and forced labour. This form of modern day slavery tends to increase after natural
disasters or conflicts where large number of people are displaced from their homes and become
highly vulnerable. In the decades to come, climate change will very likely lead to a large
increase in the number of people who are displaced and thus vulnerable to trafficking.”
Climate change policies increasingly recognize climate-induced migration and displacement
as an issue. The Cancun Adaptation Framework, adopted during COP 16 under United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2010, recognizes three modes of mobility due
to climate impacts – migration, displacement and planned relocation. This allows for specific
climate policies with distinct features, mobility patterns and outcomes of each impact.
Case studies in two global hotspots of modern slavery – the Sundarbans Delta in
India/Bangladesh and Ghana in West Africa – provide evidence between modern slavery and
climate induced displacement and migration as per the Anti – slavery International report
published by International Institute for Environment and Displacement. Limited alternatives
and resources for survival, and low resilience within households have led to intra and inter -
state migration across rural and urban areas.
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THE PREQUEL (BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE INDUCED MIGRATION)
The World bank estimates that, by 2050, the impact of the climate change crisis, such as poor
crop yields, lack of water and rising sea levels, will force more than 216 million people across
six regions including sub Saharan Africa, south Asia and Latin America, from their homes.
The National Intelligence Council sponsored a workshop entitled “Implications of Global
Climate Change in India” on March 27, 2009. The panelists judged the impact of climate
change on India from social, political and economic perspective. They judged that the practical
effects of climate on India were uncertain but India will manage them by 2030.
Some of their inferences included the impact of climate change on agriculture where it was
stated that agriculture and rural society will face the most severe disruptions from climate
change and India may require a second ‘Green Revolution’ to deal with them.
The report predicted that climate change will most likely cause mass migrations both within
India and from neighboring countries, particularly Bangladesh. Internal migrants will mainly
travel to cities which have to be equipped for such a large influx of climate change migrants.
Internal social disruptions may arise as a result of inequities in India’s society and economy.
The states in India, at the highest level of climate risk, are densely populated, underdeveloped
and politically unstable especially the north eastern heartlands. Hence, the report concluded
that beyond 2030, mitigation is very difficult. Prevention is better than cure.
The most important impacts of climate change will likely include the following:
• Agriculture: Subsistence and smallholder farmers will face hardship and hunger
through being less able to predict climate conditions. Trade may compensate to some
extent for such deficits.
• Water: Glacier melting will cause the run off to increase in the long run. More severe
storms and cyclones will cause more damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. Change
in timing and amount of monsoon rains will make the production of food and other
agricultural products more uncertain, so farmers will tend to make decisions towards
lower productivity even in good yields.
• Exacerbation of Inequality: The welfare of those effected by climate change and who
have limited means to adapt may act as a force that can change governments, strain
public budgets and foster unrest.
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• Energy: As India searches for additional sources of energy to meet rising demand,
climate change mitigation efforts may constrain its use of indigenous and imported
coal, oil and gas. The development of nuclear energy will be slow at best and likely to
counter opposition. Other non - emitting technologies will require technology transfer
and capacity building.
• Migration: India receives immigrants from a number of countries. Under climate
change conditions, it may be flooded with more. It may put strain on Indian central and
state governments.
These factors may lead to climate migration at a large level which has started to begin
gradually. Climate migration is not a new phenomenon, it took place during ice age and is still
going on but the factors influencing it are different. Today, anthropogenic activities such as
deforestation, industrialization, e – waste generation are influencing this change. The future is
unknown.
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GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE MIGRATION IN INDIA
“The rapid growth in urbanisation shows that the town or city has been acting as a magnet for
the rural population. Those who cannot find work (or sufficient work) in the rural areas go to
the city in search of work. This flow of rural to urban migration has also been accelerated by
the continuous decline of common property resources like ponds, forests and grazing lands……
… If people no longer have access to these resources, but on the other hand have to buy many
things in the market that they used to get free (like fuel, fodder or supplementary food items),
then their hardship increases.”2
While experts are uncertain about how climate change will affect India, it is likely to result in
increased competition for scarce resources, increased stress on economic, social and political
systems and greater risk of extreme disruptive events such as severe droughts, floods or storms.
One major factor influencing climate change migration is poverty. It is considered a major
event that may lead to an overall economic crisis in future. Almost 80% of Indian population
lived in poverty till 1980 and today the times have changed, though there are landless workers
and marginal farmers who bear the greatest burden from disruptions to agriculture. These
include growing instances of casual labour; lack of alternative employment in labour intensive
manufacturing, low educational levels, and inadequate training program for entry level jobs in
organized industrial and services sector.
Distributive justice is another factor which might be the missing piece in puzzle for the overall
development of the country. Even though India is intensely stratified economically and
culturally, inequality is often ignored in the current geopolitical situation. This will adversely
and unequally distribute the impact of climate change in India. For example, flooding may
concentrate in more prosperous states while increased temperatures and shifts in rain patterns
may increase agricultural yields in previously disadvantaged areas.
While there is little evidence that the climate change will benefit the rich segments of the
population, their far greater capacity to handle climate change induced challenges will widen
the gap between the rich and the poor. Climate change will have greater impact on agriculture
than industrial output.
2
(Indian Society, Std 12 NCERT, Pg 35)
8
Public health is another sphere which is ignored as an impact of climate change. The
relationship between climate change and health outcomes is complex. If temperature rises in
warmer parts of the country, heat waves may become more intense and longer lasting, resulting
in increased incidence of heat stroke and related diseases. Floods and droughts may lead to
water contamination and worsen unsanitary conditions, increasing the chances of diseases such
as dysentery and malaria.
Government has left no stone unturned in combating public outbreak of such diseases, but the
corruption and inefficiency in the system are ongoing problems. India requires to accelerate
medical education to ensure access to trained medical professionals at every institutional and
demographic level. Proper drainage and clean drinking water supply are essence of the Swachh
Bharat Abhiyaan as a vision of the current government.
India has progressed in agriculture similar to health but the lacuna lies in its labor intensive,
inefficient and marginally productive model. Green revolution has improved the scenario.
Agriculture generates less than 18% of India’s GDP but its importance cannot be
misunderstood against the rising essence of the service and industrial sectors related to it.
Climate is a major factor influencing the food security of any country. The technology is shaped
and adapted to climate. Sudden changes due to climate change are uncalled for.
If agriculture becomes more difficult and more capital intensive, marginal and small farmers
will be forced to sell their land which will increase the economic inequality unless farmers
switch to cash crops such as grape wines and horticulture.
This will also create a rural labour surplus. The people engaged in agriculture will migrate to
urban areas in search of livelihood. Flooding from the run off of the melting Himalayan glaciers
and cyclones will pose a major threat to India’s heavily populated river planes. Droughts and
water scarcity will lead to the push factor in migration.
Major portions of India’s energy come from fossil fuels and this will play a part in global
warming. India has taken positive steps to counter this issue by investing in renewable energy.
It will reduce the urban challenges where the slum dwellers face the adverse effects of floods
and heavy rains.
One major issue is the ongoing dispute between India and China. China is constructing dams
on the Brahmaputra river, which originates in the Tibetan Plateau and is a major water source
feeding rivers that flow into both India and Bangladesh. Further, China plans to divert the
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Brahmaputra river to its barren north west in Xinjiang region which will pose a threat to India’s
northeast plains and Bangladesh.
Climate change and geopolitical links have been found in issues relating to food security, water
shortages, rising temperatures, or extreme and unpredictable weather patterns. This has become
a global problem today.
Global efforts to reduce the impact of climate change
Global Environment Facility is an independently working financial organization, established
on the eve of 1992 Rio Earth Summit. Special Climate Change Fund (2001) aims to address
the specific needs of developing countries to adapt to the impact of climate change and increase
resilience. It is administered by Global Environment Facility.
Similarly, Least Developed Countries Fund is established to address their short, medium and
long term resilience needs and reduce the climate change vulnerability in priority sectors and
ecosystems.
Global climate Risk Index 2021 was released by international environmental think tank
‘Germanwatch’. In this 16th edition of the index, analysis of the extent to which countries and
regions have been affected by the impacts of weather related loss events such as storms, floods,
heatwaves, is calculated in terms of fatalities and economic losses. India is ranked 7th in the
2021 index as compared to 5th in 2020 index. The Indian monsoon lasted a month longer than
usual in the year 2019, with surplus rains causing major hardship. The rain was 110% of
normal, which is the most since 1994.
The floods caused by heavy rains were responsible for 1800 deaths and led to displacement of
1.8 million people. India was hit by a total of 8 tropical cyclones. Of which, Cyclone Fani
(May, 2019) caused the maximum damage.
The Himalayan glaciers, the coastlines, and the deserts in India have been severely affected by
global warming. The report points to an increase in the number of heatwaves, increased
intensity and frequency of cyclones and an increased rate of melting of glaciers in India. 3
3
(Global Climate Risk Index, germanwatch.org)
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India’s foreign policy stance on Climate issues
India ‘s industrial growth and size means that it is becoming one of the primary contributors to
climate change, even though its per capita emissions are and will remain low by developed
country standards. India’s view has been that the developed countries have exhausted the global
commons and should bear the primary responsibility for responding to climate change. The
developed countries, should thus reduce their emissions to start closing the gap in per capita
emissions between developed and developing countries.
If the developed countries want India to adopt more climate friendly policies and technologies,
they will have to subsidize it with through large scale transfer of technology and money. India
seeks further commitments on reducing emissions from the developed countries, citing the
principle of “common but differentiated responses”.
Addressing the world leaders at United Nations COP 26 at Glasgow, The Prime Minister of
India listed out five commitments of India to combat climate change with a bold announcement
that it will achieve the target of net zero emissions by the year 2070, achieving 500 Giga Watt
non – fossil energy capacity by 2030, fulfilling 50% of its energy capacity from renewable
energy sources by 2030. 4
India also launched ‘One Sun, One World, One Grid’ (OSOWOG) at the conference with an
aim to harness solar energy wherever the sun is shining, ensuring that generated electricity
flows to areas that need it most. India entered into Climate Action and Finance Mobilization
Dialogue (CAFMD) with the US under India-US Climate Clean Energy Agenda 2030 aimed
to provide the countries an opportunity to renew collaborations on climate change while
addressing the financing aspects.
4
(https://m-economictimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/m.economictimes.com/news/india/india-put-
climate-change-at-the-centre-of-its-environmental-policies-in-
2021/amp_articleshow/88542444.cms?amp_js_v=a6&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3
D#aoh=1655371, n.d.) India put climate change at the centre of its environmental policies in 2021
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Government efforts to reduce climate change migration
The Indian government has organized itself to reduce the effects of climate change on its
population through several incentives. Some of them are as follows:
1) ATAL BHUJAL YOJANA
A unique blend of bottom up and top down approach, this government Yojana focuses
on conservation and preservation of ground water through community participation
This Central sector scheme will be aided by loan and support from the World Bank.
2) JAL JEEVAN MISSION
It aims to provide piped water access to every rural household in India. ‘Har Ghar Nal
Se Jal’ is a crucial part of this Yojana.
3) CATCH THE RAIN CAMPAIGN
The motto of this campaign is ‘Catch the Rain, where it falls, when it falls’ to nudge
the stakeholders and state to improve and construct a proper Rain water harvesting
structure. The States have to provide Rain Centers at every district.
4) SAHI FASAL CAMPAIGN OF NATIONAL WATER MISSION
This Yojana nudges the farmers to grow crops which are not water intensive but
economically viable as well as nutritious.
5) ECO – NIWAS
Energy Conservation – New Indian Way for Affordable and Sustainable Homes is an
energy conservation code for residential buildings.
6) FIRST MILE CONNECTIVITY
It aims to ease the lives of people living in the coal mine areas by replacing the road
mode over seamless mechanized transportation through conveyor belts. It facilitates the
Ease of Living with Ease of Doing Business.
This was just the crust of the whole plan to convert India into an Eco - technological hub given
its rich biodiversity and the young demographic dividend. These six Yojana have been
intrinsically planed and implemented with success. Some other Yojana are related to climate
change but these specifically focus on curbing the problem of climate change migration.
India is on its way to be a leader and example of Unity in Diversity.
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REFERENCES
___________________________________________________________________________
1. National Intelligence Council: Conference Report, ‘India: The Impact of Climate Change
to 2030 Geopolitical Implications’, prepared jointly by CENTRA Technology Inc., and Scitor
Corporation
___________________________________________________________________________
2. German Watch: ‘Global Climate Risk Index’
__________________________________________________________________________
3. USA govt., October 2021, ‘Report on Impact of Climate Change Migration’
__________________________________________________________________________
4. International Organization on Migration, Migration Research Series - 2008, ‘Migration and
Climate Change’
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