Overcoming Behavioral Biases:

The Importance of Our Proprietary

Portfolio Exercises
EQUITY | MACRO INSIGHT | OCTOBER 2022

All humans have behavioral biases, those blind spots AUTHORS

that can impact decision-making. Some people are

overconfident about their abilities; others attribute too
much value to things in their possession; some unwittingly
EDWARD J. PERKIN, CFA
attach too much importance to things that are not
Chief Investment Officer,
important at all. Eaton Vance Equity
Much has been written on the subject of behavioral
biases. Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize in
Economics on behavioral economics, the only
economics winner who was not an economist (he
AARON DUNN, CFA
holds a Ph.D. in psychology). Research has shown
Co-Head of Value Equity
that behavioral biases can impact decision-making in a
number of fields: judges are inclined to be more severe
before eating lunch, more lenient after; doctors have
been known to make mistakes based on assumptions
CHRISTOPHER DYER,
about what they have seen in the past, overlooking new CFA
data at their fingertips.1 Head of Global Equity
Behavioral biases exist when human beings fail to act
“rationally” and process all the information available to
them when making decisions. As investment managers,
we must recognize that individually, and as an investment
team, we are likely to have biases about our stock
selection process, the sizing of positions, portfolio
construction, even risk management. Understanding
that we have these biases is the first step, but what can
we do to proactively overcome them? The Eaton Vance
Equity Group believes that having deep company-specific
knowledge, training in financial statement analysis, and
decades of collective experience are necessary, but
insufficient, to achieve strong investment results. Since
2014, we have integrated the discipline of conducting
Portfolio Exercises into our investment process, a
differentiator in the way we manage money and an
important element to our success.

1
Diagnostic Errors in Medicine, Mark Garber, February 2007
MACRO INSIGHT

Behavioral Biases and Their Impact on “There are over 150 documented
Investing
We have learned that human beings are not always “rational”
behavioral biases that can impact
and don’t process all the information available to them when decision-making in life—and in the
making decisions. There are over 150 documented behavioral
biases that can impact decision-making in life—and in the investing world.”
investing world. Here is a sample.
LOSS AVERSION
OVERCONFIDENCE BIAS
People don’t like to lose, and loss aversion is the tendency
People are overconfident about many things: their ability to
of people to prefer avoiding losses, as opposed to acquiring
drive well, their sense of humor, and their certainty that “they
equivalent gains. Kahneman’s research suggested that losses
are absolutely right” about specific things. Overconfidence
are psychologically twice as powerful as gains, in the sense
bias is defined as a tendency to have a misleading assessment
that someone who loses $100 will feel twice the pain versus
of ourselves, a belief wrapped in ego that we’re better than we
the satisfaction of gaining $100, i.e. a person would have to
actually are.
gain $200 for their feelings to equalize.3
Overconfidence in investing can be detrimental. While
In the case of investing, individuals and investment teams
we want our professionals to be confident, we find that
may stubbornly hold onto investments, in the face of obvious
overconfidence tends to be a weakness. Money managers have
reasons to sell. The thought is that one doesn’t lose money
to understand that sometimes they will be wrong about their
if one doesn’t sell, a behavior that is not necessarily rational
assumptions and projections—and ultimately the stocks they
when processing all the available information.
pick. In one survey, 74% of fund managers responded they
believe they were “above average” at investing, the remaining
26% thought they were average.2 Of course, no one thought
they were below average, a statistical impossibility, but not at
all surprising.

2
“Behaving Badly,” James Montier, 2006
3
Prospect Theory, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, 1981

2 MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

 OVERCOMING BEHAVIORAL BIASES: THE IMPORTANCE OF OUR PROPRIETARY PORTFOLIO EXERCISES

RECENCY BIAS

Studies have shown that people are prone to make decisions

based on recent events. A lawyer’s closing argument might
have much more weight than evidence offered earlier in the
week. Employee evaluations are sometimes based on the past
month’s work, as opposed to the full year.

In investing, recent events in markets sometimes hold

more weight than a longer-term view. It is not uncommon
for individual investors to buy near the top during market
run-ups and sell at the bottom during downturns. In money
management there are reams of data that need to be parsed
when making investment decisions—some short-term, some
longer-term. Many money managers talk about the need to
“tune out the short-term noise,” but that’s often easier said
than done.

ANCHORING

People often become fixated on an “anchor” which can

irrationally impact their decision-making. In a famous study,
people were asked to take the last three digits of their phone
number and add 400, and then asked the year Attila the
Hun was defeated (which few know, which was the point).
Their answers formed a perfect regression despite the fact Investors should realize that just because they own a
that the phone number plus 400 had absolutely nothing particular investment, regardless for how long, it doesn’t
to do with Attila. The fabricated number had become an necessarily mean it is more valuable than other alternatives in
irrational anchor.4 the market.

There are many real-life anchors in the world of investing. HERDING/GROUPTHINK

Individual investors create anchors about their investment Herding is when people follow the crowd instead of their
expectations based on news (“Gold nearing its YTD high”) own instincts and/or analysis. In a well-known study,
or talking to colleagues (“I’ve doubled by money on crypto”). participants were asked to answer a question by a show of
For investment managers, anchors could be the price you paid hands (so that everyone in the group could see how everyone
for a stock, its 52-week high or a recent earnings estimate, and else was answering). In the first part of the test, the answer
while it’s important to analyze these data points, managers was obvious and everyone got it right. But in the second part,
shouldn’t let their decisions get weighed down by them. there were “plants” in the group who intentionally answered
incorrectly—and guess what? Many more participants got
ENDOWMENT EFFECT the answer wrong, a classic example of herding, where people
The endowment effect refers to the fact that people will place might be lazy, indifferent or question their own judgment.5
a higher value on something they own than on an identical
good they do not. This bias can influence a fan with a concert We do not think it is a good idea for investors to follow the
ticket or a CEO selling a company, both of whom perceive crowd, i.e., the markets or other investors. Economist John
their item is more valuable than what the market might Maynard Keynes once said, “Worldly wisdom teaches that it
indicate, just because they own it. Mere possession of an asset is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed
can impair rational decision-making. unconventionally.” To achieve success in investing, we believe
it is critical for people to think for themselves.

4
Russo and Schoemaker, 1989
5
Asch Conformity Study, Solomon Asch, 1951

MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT 3

MACRO INSIGHT

using blind votes and anonymous submissions in order to

invite dissent rather than conformity.

“Debate and disagreement are

hallmarks of effective working
groups and while a hiring manager
might seek employees who are ‘just
like me,’ this can result in a lack of
cognitive diversity and pressure
to ‘go along to get along,’ features
that are not conducive to good
decision-making.”

Eaton Vance Equity –

Proprietary Portfolio Exercises
Building and Leading an Effective Within Eaton Vance Equity, our investment teams study
behavioral biases and how they might impact investment
Investment Team decisions. More specifically, we have developed and use over
Certain behavioral biases affect us as individuals, while others 30 proprietary Portfolio Exercises that are designed to help
are more prominent in group settings. One way to guard portfolio managers and analysts systematically recognize—
against groupthink and conformity is to be thoughtful about and overcome—their personal investment biases. In essence,
the design and management of an investment team. Debate we are trying to define the problem, the biases, and develop
and disagreement are hallmarks of effective working groups a solution, the Portfolio Exercises. These exercises are an
and while a hiring manager might seek employees who are integral part of our investment processes, and are performed
“just like me,” this can result in a lack of cognitive diversity by our investment teams on a regular basis to help us
and pressure to “go along to get along,” features that are not overcome biases.
conducive to good decision-making.
“TWO MISTAKES I MADE LAST YEAR”
An alternative approach is one in which the team leader
identifies a list of must-have attributes, such as curiosity, At some point early in the year, we ask everyone on the team to
independence of thought, intelligence, honesty, and a strong think about two mistakes they made over the past 12 months.
work ethic. On top of that foundation, team members should For example, “the stock price hit my target, but I talked myself
have diverse skill sets and backgrounds. One person might into holding on just a little bit longer” or “the CFO abruptly
be especially strong at accounting, another at reading people. left the company, which I know is a red flag, but I dismissed it,
One might be eloquent, another shy. One might be from and they subsequently had to restate their financial statements.”
an Ivy League business school, another from the school of Everyone in the group then presents their “mistakes” to the rest
hard knocks. of the group.

Once the team is built, the leader should be careful to There are a couple of important reasons why we do this. One
conduct group and one-on-one interactions in a way that goal is to engender the continuous improvement of our processes
minimizes the pressure to conform or shut down debate. by having people learn from their own and their colleagues’
Techniques for doing this include regularly reiterating the mistakes. Another is to wipe the slate clean for those coming
expectation that respectful disagreement is encouraged from off of a difficult year so they are not hampered by the baggage
each member of the team; the leader admitting to mistakes in of history. Likewise, it brings a dose of humility to those
front of the group; the leader resisting the urge to tell others who need it.
what they think of an investment idea before the discussion
The behavioral bias we hope to address is overconfidence. As
is completed and arguments have been heard. Other valuable
we see it, good money managers are confident, not arrogant.
tools include giving individuals the “cover of anonymity” by

4 MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

 OVERCOMING BEHAVIORAL BIASES: THE IMPORTANCE OF OUR PROPRIETARY PORTFOLIO EXERCISES

“ONE UP, ONE OUT”

“We have developed and use
The assignment is for everyone on the team to review the
portfolio and pick one stock outside of their own area of direct over 30 proprietary Portfolio
responsibility where they would add more to the position,
another that they would liquidate entirely. The intention of Exercises that are designed to
the exercise is to give every member of the team “a voice”
in management of the portfolio, obligating them to take a
help portfolio managers and
“holistic view” of the portfolio beyond their individual areas analysts systematically recognize—
of coverage.
and overcome—their personal
We believe the exercise addresses loss aversion, in the sense
that team members have to get rid of something, even if investment biases.”
it is showing a loss at the time. It is also designed to hold
sector-specific analysts accountable for “the whole portfolio “DESIGNATED BEAR”
experience” in order to align them with our clients.
We believe counterargument can be the linchpin of good
investment decisions. Whereas everyone on the team might
“ROBINSON CRUSOE”
feel great about a certain investment thesis, a well-researched
Robinson Crusoe was a castaway who spent 28 years on a counterargument might uncover something the team is
remote desert island. In this exercise, we ask investment team missing. In this exercise, we ask an analyst to present the case
members to imagine being stranded on a desert island for five for owning a particular stock in a sector they cover, then name
years, without access to information or the ability to trade. a Designated Bear to present the case for NOT owning the
Then, as Robinson Crusoe, identify the ONE stock you would stock. The exercise is borrowed from the military (red team/
want to own for those five years. blue team) and sports (scout team), where it can be helpful to
seek out the perspective of your adversary.
The goal here is for team members to overcome any recency
bias (or short-termism) they might be experiencing. For We prefer volunteers in this exercise because research shows
example, we do not want team members to be obsessed with the best results occur when the Bear fully believes in what
the current market environment or to hold out for the perfect they are presenting, rather than going through the motions of
entry-point price when buying a stock in a great long-term acting out the contra case. The goal of the exercise is designed
business. We keep a running list of stocks identified in the to systematically break down any herd mentality, and
exercise, so that when the market drops dramatically (as it has complacency, that might have infected the group.
this year), we are ready to act.
In summary
“TIME-TRAVELING REPORTER”
Behavioral biases are well-documented phenomena that
This is another exercise designed to help overcome recency
are nonetheless quite prevalent in the investment world.
bias. Each team member is asked to think of themself as a
Overconfidence, herding, loss aversion, anchoring, recency
financial journalist with access to a time machine that can
bias are all potential blind spots that can impact the objective
leap forward 1, 3, or 5 years into the future. We then ask for
decision-making of the professionals on any investment team.
a potential newspaper headline from that future date. For
example, what might the newspaper say a year from today? To address these biases we have developed proprietary Portfolio
Has inflation peaked and dropped? Where is the Fed on Exercises that are fully integrated into our investment process.
interest rates? Is the war in Ukraine over? The exercises have proven to be a great tool for the group, helping
both individuals and the team as a whole deliver better client
One might argue it’s a fool’s errand to try and predict the
outcomes. We find that some exercises result in immediate
future. But the point of the exercise is not about predictions
changes to our portfolios, and others stimulate new thinking
per se, but identifying future scenarios that are not in the
and ideas. We believe these Portfolio Exercises are important
current narrative of the market. The intention is to help us to
differentiators that set us apart from other investment managers
avoid overemphasizing recent events when making long-term
in the industry.
decisions for our clients.

MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT 5

MACRO INSIGHT

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