7/4/2022

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY OVERVIEW

ASSESSMENT IN HIGHLAND
AGRICULTURE: CHALLENGES AND • Overview on highlands
OPPORTUNITIES • Socio-economic complexities of highlands
• Climate change in highlands
• Agriculture in highlands
• Characteristics of the Nan province
S.V.R.K. Prabhakar, Principal Policy Researcher, IGES, Japan • Household survey results with vulnerability
Based on the baseline survey conducted by the project team implications
• Conclusions
• Challenges in highlands
• Opportunities in highlands
Presented at the ADB project training workshop “TA 9993-THA: Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture for
Enhanced Recovery and Sustainability of Highlands”, July 4-5 2022, Nan Province, Thailand

HIGHLANDS Asia is the home of highlands and highland people

• Highlands are characterized by high elevation, often 1. Asia is home to 36% of the global
accompany with the low mountain ranges. highlands (FAO 2015)
• Highlands are also often called uplands. However, the
2. A large portion of Asia’s highlands fall
word uplands are also interchangeably used with a
type of agriculture crops where flooded irrigation is under the Class 6 of elevation classes of
not followed as in the case of ‘upland rice’. UNEP-WCMC.
• Highlands are characterized by high insolation (high 3. Asian highlands accommodate nearly
solar radiation), low temperatures, and high half of world mountain populations.
precipitation. The daily temperature fluctuations tend 4. Southeast Asian highlands have third
to be higher than the low lands with much cooler
largest vulnerable populations in the
nights and warmer days.
• The climatic conditions are highly influenced by the world. Nearly 41% of mountain people
elevation of the highlands. in Southeast Asia are estimated as
• Highlands mostly accompany with a river basin (figure highly vulnerable to food insecurity.
on the left) as they feed major rivers contributing to
the hydrology, livelihoods and economy of the region.
Zomer et al., 2016, ICRAF

SOCIO-ECONOMIC COMPLEXITIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HIGHLANDS

ASIAN HIGHLANDS
• Poor overall development due to physical isolation, poor • Globally, highlands are rapidly changing their climatic characteristics than
infrastructure development and employment opportunities. the low lands.
• Highlands have one of the lowest urbanization in the world. • The rapid changes were also observed in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH)
• Rapid migration to the plains seeking employment
opportunities.
region which is reported to be warming three times faster than the global
• Rapid environmental degradation also occur in many parts of average with debilitating impacts on the region’s glaciers, glacier-fed rivers,
Asian highlands. and dependent national and regional economies.
• The rapid environmental degradation is related to • Increasing water scarcity is a real threat for most highlands. A decline in
deforestation, and other forms of resource extraction that agricultural productivity will have food security implications downstream in
local communities may not benefit from. the river basins these highlands feed.
• As a result, highlands are slowly depleting the human • Climate change impacts hydrology, biodiversity, and ecosystem services in
resources, leaving behind aged and vulnerable populations.
• Poor institutional development often do not protect local
highlands.
populations depriving them of access to various services and • Food insecure people in mountain areas rose 30 per cent over 12 years to
(FAO, 2015)

facilities. Political and social marginalization is an important nearly 330 million (FAO, 2015). This number could grow in the future due to
issue in most Asian highlands. climate change impacts in highlands.

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 7/4/2022

CLIMATE CHANGE AND HIGHLANDS (CONT.…) AGRICULTURE IN HIGHLANDS

• Unlike lowlands and plains, the highlands are characterized by
• By 2050, mean annual temperatures for the Asian Highlands (averaged over all upper high heterogeneity in vertical and horizontal planes in terms of
basins) are projected to increase from 2.5°C to 3.1°C.
• Highland plateau regions especially may face higher warming than other highlands (as microclimate, geographical, and other factors that determine the
in the case of HKH and Tibetan plateau) nature of agriculture practiced.
• Slight to substantial increase in precipitation in major highlands in Asia on an average • Highland agriculture is distinctly characterized compared to the
39-48mm by 2050.
• At the same time, the average potential evapotranspiration (PET) and actual lowland agriculture due to its distinct weather and climate
evapotranspiration (AET) increases as much as 11% by 2050 indicating a high water patterns and different socio-economic conditions.
demand in highlands. Hence, an increase in the precipitation is compensated by the • Shallow soils, depletion of nutrients due to runoff and leaching
increased PET.
• Soil moisture content may be drastically affected, with an average decline by 5% due to makes them poor in fertility.
increased PET and AET. • Landholding sizes are often smaller due to small areas possible to
• A shift in bioclimatic zones was projected across Asian highlands. cultivate on slopes.
(Zomer et al., 2016)
These changes will have compounding impact on the traditional agricultural systems • Often low input intensification compared to the lowlands,
followed in highlands. characterized by low per capita fertilizer and pesticide use.

Agriculture in Highlands (Cont.…)

• Due to physical isolation, access to markets is often challenging and long distance
Thai Highlands: Challenges
transportation under difficult conditions contributes to high marketing costs. 1. The Thai highlands is a mountainous natural
• These factors make highlands often unsuitable for mass and commercial agricultural region in the north of Thailand. The region of the
production. Thai Highlands encompasses the nine
• High reliance on animal husbandry makes highland agriculture suitable for resource administrative provinces of northern Thailand,
circulation models. based on the six region system, as well as parts of
• The traditional highland agriculture is slowly changing and this can be detrimental to Tak and Sukhothai Provinces.
the local ecosystems. Due to the fragile nature of mountain ecosystems, one has to 2. Expansion of upland maize cultivation is believed
preserve the traditional and low-input agriculture systems. to have played a key role in deforestation and
• We need to strengthen institutions in highlands to adapt highland agriculture to rapid environmental problems in these highland areas.
climate change in highlands. 3. Unsustainable farming practices and over-
• Climate change also provides new opportunities in highlands due to warming that exploitation of natural resources in the area has
provides a potential for growing new crops. We need to identify these new led to severe resource degradation, low
opportunities, new crops, and prepare well in time. productivity, adverse health impacts, and unstable
incomes.
(ADB, 2021)

Thai Highlands (Cont.…) Nan highlands: More of the same

1. Key challenges facing highland agriculture in Thailand: 1. Increase in maize cultivation in Nan highlands is significantly
• Severe soil degradation and erosion correlated with increased deforestation
2. Deteriorating soils and soil erosion and the extensive application and
• Chemical contamination in the environment subsequent leaching of agri-chemicals, contaminating critical water
• Climate change sources
• Food quality and safety 3. Monoculture farm practices, especially maize production, have led to
2. Climate change, manifested through rising temperatures and a increased household debt burdens, as indicated by the income-to-
greater frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts, is debt ratio reaching to 0.89 by 2032
exacerbating these problems. 4. The deterioration of soil fertility and soil health is leading to
3. 1.4 to 1.8°C increase in mean annual temperature by the 2060's, and increased and chronic debt
3.0 to 3.8°C increase by the 2090's 5. All the above factors are increasing economic burden on the
4. 19,461 ha. primary forest lost in highland provinces between 2002– households and the environmental burden on the Nan highlands
2020. The lost forest areas were converted to maize monocropping.
(ADB, 2022)

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Household Survey in Bua Yai subdistrict Landholding size 1. The landholding is highly fragmented. Number of plots
owned by each family range between 1-8. The highest
Population and sample characteristics in the subdistrict 1. A total of 320 household samples were
No of units of land per household
difference between the max and min number of plots was
collected. 8
in B Nong Ha and the least was in Na Haen, Tabman, and
V1 2. The survey was conducted using digital tablet- 7

Nakai.
6

No. of Farm Plot

V2 based face to face interviews 2. In terms of the land holding size, the highest landholding
5
V3
3. The draft questionnaire was formulated and
4
V4
V5
3 size was reported in the B Mai Mongkol and the least was
V6 tested 2
in Nakai.
V7
1

V8
4. The survey interviews were conducted in the 0
3. Most owned the land and a very negligible farmers leased
1 2 3 4 Village
5 No. 6 7 8 All
Thai language Average Minimum Maximum
in the land. High land ownership is an important
Area of land per household
5. Pilot testing was done to assess the 40 capacity factor.
questionnaire 4. However, the large variation in the landholding size

Average Farm size (tai)

30
6. Eight enumerators were trained for two days indicates a wide economic disparity among the villages. It
prior to implementation
20

Sample location can pose challenges in terms of technology adoption as

7. The average household size was 3.3 10
different land holding sizes may allow different kinds of
8. The sample consists of predominant male 0
V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7 V8 All technologies to be employed.
population Village no.
inside the village Outside the village

Livelihood diversification 60

Cropping Pattern and Livestock CROPPING PATTERN

1. Livelihood diversification is an important capacity factor. Lesser
50

Plantation Fruit tree

Rice
1. A very narrow cropping pattern could be found in the region 1%
40
the diversity of livelihoods higher the vulnerability of farm 3%
2%
%

highly dominated by rubber and maize. This indicates a presence

30
households to economic shocks from climatic vagaries.
20

2. There is no optimum number of livelihoods a family can have, it of monocropping. Maize

10
44%
depends on the local conditions. 2. This also indicates the absence of ability to take advantage of
0 Rubber
3. We have noticed a relatively moderate degree of livelihood
V1 V2 V3 V4 V5
Village no.
V6 V7 V8 All
wide varied environments in the region to adopt diverse cropping 50%

diversification in the region. Most livelihoods are relatively highly

On own farm work Household work Study & Not working
pattern.
Handicraft Off-farm non-agri sector Off-farm agri sector

dependent on agriculture and related activities. This indicates Self-employed Others 3. Income potential seems to drive the cropping pattern in the
high degree of vulnerability to agriculture related economic region as against the environmental sustainability and this could
100

shocks to households. pose serious long term consequences for the natural resources.
80 Animal husbandry by households
4. Though the graph on the right indicates number of livelihoods in 4. At the same time, the adoption of animal husbandry appears to Number of livestock Household
60 Type of involved
terms of % of respondents, it doesn't indicate how many be poor since only 14% of households raise poultry and less than livestock Average Minimum Maximu Number %
%

40 m
livelihoods each household has or how much percent of non- 5% of households own buffaloes and pig. Buffalo 2 1 10 14 4
20

agriculture income each household earns. 5. The poor adoption of livestock can have important resilience Cow 5 1 11 17 5
0
Pig 1 80 14
5. On an average, only 10% of households reported non-
1 2 3 4 5
Village no.
6 7 8 Average
implications against climatic and economic shocks as households 18 4
Poultry 32 1 250 45
agricultural livelihood options. Households with off-farm work already have less non-farm income diversification. 14

Household Income Off‐farm

37%
Crop
Challenges in Vulnerability Assessments in Highlands
Livestock 59%

1. Household income is an important indicator of the capacity of the 4%

1. High spatial variability in local characteristics of highlands means the need to
household to provide quality of life to its members. While the amount
have high granular/high resolution and quality data on all bio-physical and
of income is important indicator, even more important is the proportion Gross income
socio-economic conditions which is largely lacking in highlands.
of income coming from diversified sources.
2. There is a scarcity of homogenous and disaggregated data in most highlands.
2. Though households reported fewer non-agricultural income sources, Off‐farm
44% Crop
54% This pushes researchers to make assumptions that drive the analysis and
the off-farm income appears to be relatively high, on an average 37% of Livestock
2% interpretation of the analysis a challenging one to the local conditions.
gross income comes from off-farm sources while only 4% income
3. Most vulnerability studies are focused on lowlands and plains. Vulnerability
comes from animal husbandry. Marginal income indicators are often location specific and hence the available literature on
3. It is not clear how animal husbandry is complementing the nutritional 55
45
highland vulnerabilities and related indicators is scarce. In addition, since
security of households, though very few households reported following
35 vulnerability studies are also focused on hazard-specific conditions, the nature
some kind of animal husbandry.
and degree of difference between hazards of highlands and lowlands often
25
%

15
4. 33% households reported stable income (in the past 10 years) and 80% 5 means the limited suitability for application in highland conditions.
reported sufficient income, while 28% reported unstable income with -5
1 2 3 4 5
Village no.
6 7 8 All
4. Even within the highlands, spatial extrapolation of vulnerabilities is faced with a
highest unstable income reported in Oi, Moi Mongkol, and Nong Ha.
Income stability
Very Unstable Unstable
challenge due to high heterogeneity in highlands.

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Opportunities for Vulnerability reduction in Important references

Highlands
1. High dependency on natural resources for social resilience and the 1. Mapping the vulnerability of mountain peoples to food insecurity. FAO, 2015.
role of biodiversity and ecosystem services provides us with an 2. Projected Climate Change Impact on Hydrology, Bioclimatic Conditions, and Terrestrial Ecosystems in the
important opportunity to understand highland natural resources and Asian Highlands. Robert Zomer, Antonio Trabucco, Mingcheng Wang, Jianchu Xu. ICRAF Working Paper
ecosystem services. 222.
2. Animal husbandry needs to be promoted to strengthen resource 3. ADB TA 9993-THA documentation
circulation/closed-loop agricultural systems in highlands that can 4. Baseline survey conducted by the project team (TA 9993-THA: Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture for
improve the agricultural resilience. Enhanced Recovery and Sustainability of Highlands)
3. Highlands also provide greater opportunity for crop diversification
due to vertical warming.
4. The traditional farming practices that evolved over the ages in
accordance with local ecosystems in highlands can help conserve the
local ecosystems.
What challenges and opportunities do you see in your highlands? Please provide your
inputs!

THANK YOU!