Important Paper
Important Paper
www.emeraldinsight.com/1755-4179.htm
QRFM
7,3
Behavioral biases of Indian
investors: a survey of Delhi-NCR
region
230 Jaya Mamta Prosad
Department of Management, IEC Group of Institutions, Noida, India
Received 5 April 2014
Revised 13 November 2014
Accepted 9 December 2014
Sujata Kapoor
Jaypee Business School, Jaypee Institute of Information Technology,
Noida, India, and
Jhumur Sengupta
Management Development Institute, Murshidabad, India
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the presence the behavioral biases in Indian
investors specifically, overconfidence, excessive optimism (pessimism), herd behavior and the
disposition effect. It further investigates the role of demographics and investor sophistication in
influencing the biases. Finally, it reveals which bias is most prevalent in the Indian context.
Design/methodology/approach – For this purpose, a survey has been conducted on the investors of
the Delhi/NCR area. The data have been collected with the help of a structured questionnaire that is
analyzed with the help of relevant statistical tools.
Findings – The survey evidence shows that behavioral biases are dependent on investors’
demographics and their trading sophistication with highest influencing factors being age, profession
and trading frequency. Each bias corresponds to a specific set of investor characteristics and
overconfidence comes out to be the most important bias in the Indian context.
Research limitations/implications – The potential limitations of the present survey can be
ascribed to socially desirable responses and their difference with actual market behavior. Further, due
to time and resource constraint, the data set is limited to investors of only Delhi/NCR.
Practical implications – This study is most relevant for financial advisors, as it facilitates them in
gaining a better understanding of their clients’ psychology. It can aid them in developing behaviorally
modified portfolio, which best suits their clients’ predisposition.
Originality/value – The paper gives a unique insight on the investors’ profile corresponding to each
bias under consideration. It not only updates the evidence on behavioral biases but also highlights
which bias is the most influential in the Indian context.
Keywords Overconfidence, Behavioral biases, Excessive optimism (pessimism), Herd behavior,
The disposition effect
Paper type Research paper
2. Literature review
232 In recent times, there has been a noteworthy progress in the field of behavioral finance.
The literature on behavioral finance is voluminous, including survey and secondary
data analysis. Both approaches have significant contributions in this area. This section
discusses some of the prominent researchers of both approaches and is divided into
three themes. These are, the factors influencing the individual investor behavior, effect
of demographics on investor behavior and detailed literature on the biases of concern,
i.e. overconfidence, optimism (pessimism), herd behavior and the disposition effect.
Around 500 people were approached for participating in the survey. The survey was
administered online as well as on one-to-one basis. Of those, 410 responses were
received, of which nine responses were incomplete in some way or the other, making the
234 final number of responses to be 401.
(strongly agree). In all, there are six items pertaining to optimism (pessimism), six items
for overconfidence, five items for disposition effect, seven items for herding and two
control items to verify the reliability of investor responses. The item code of each
statement along with the bias it captures is mentioned in Table II. The questionnaire is
finalized after judges’ validity that includes academic and an industry expert. Further,
the reliability of the questionnaire is verified with the help of Cronbach’s alpha.
with their outlook on gold prices (A4). Studies show that investment demand for gold
increases when there is an uncertainty in the stock market. Gold provides a safe haven
in times of risk and thus optimistic estimates of gold prices can be related to a less
optimistic outlook of the stock market by the investors. Further, the respondents are
asked to agree or disagree on statements such as do they plan to increase their
investment in stock market in next quarter (B7) and do they think that if NSE drops by
a certain per cent, it would recover within few days (B16). These statements also provide
the optimistic or pessimistic outlook of investors and are in the lines of survey conducted
by Awan et al. (2010).
3.4.3 Herding. Herd behavior exists wherever people have the tendency to mimic the
crowd. The respondents depend on their own knowledge and understanding to make
investment choices or they rely more on the judgment of others (A7 and A8). The items
A9 and A10 identify this tendency by asking the respondents to rate the opinion of their
peers and market experts in the level of importance in their decision-making process.
The respondents are also asked if they agree to the fact that a loss in the group is less
disappointing than individual loss (B 14 and B15). Respondents who agree to these
statements have the tendency to follow the crowd. The herd mentality is also seen when
investors buy stocks just because many “buy” orders were placed on that stock (B13).
3.4.4 The disposition effect. The statements on the disposition effect come from its
definition given by Shefrin and Statman (1985). This bias has two sides, where one side
QRFM deals with the investors’ tendency to keep stocks that have dropped in value and the
7,3 other side deals with early selling shares whose prices have increased. This definition
has been framed in the form of statements on Likert scale and the respondents are asked
to agree or disagree to the same (B9 and B12). In a different frame, we present two
hypothetical situations in which the stock has first dropped in value (A7) and then the
value of that share has increased (A8). In these closed-ended questions, the responses
238 are framed in a way that they capture the two sides of the disposition effect as well as the
herding tendencies of investors. These situations are similar to the ones given by Bodie
et al. (2009). Prior literature also shows that this bias can increase the momentum of the
stock market (Shumway and Wu, 2006) and investors prone to this bias increase their
trading activity in their winning stocks (Statman et al., 2006). This behavior is also
captured on the Likert scale (B6).
4. Potential limitations
As with any methodology, the present survey also has potential limitations. For
instance, the respondents can be hesitant about admitting their biases and can give
socially desirable responses. This has been minimized to a certain extent, as the
respondents were not directly asked about their behavioral biases. Instead, they
were given situations and possible responses from which their underlying bias could be
inferred. Another concern is that the responses were given in a relaxed environment
which could be different from their actual responses in stressful market conditions.
Further limitations can occur due to time and resource constraint which limits our
sample to investors of only Delhi/NCR.
frequency
Table V.
241
experience and
investors
Indian
biases of
Behavioral
Presence of bias
Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence Disposition effect Herding
Group Item Response Item Response Item Response Item Response
1 A4 Stable B1 Agree – –
2 A4 Improve B1 Neutral
Notes: The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each Table VI.
other. Items highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. (⫺) sign implies that the bias has an equal Independent sample
impact on the categories of gender. Brief description of items is mentioned here; A4 ⫽ prospect of gold t-test results for
prices in next six months; B1 ⫽ I have sufficient of Indian stock market gender
Bias
Disposition
Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence effect Herding
Group Item Response Item Response Item Response Item Response
Notes: The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each
other. Items highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. Brief description of items is mentioned here;
A4 ⫽ prospect of gold prices in next six month; A6 ⫽ issues considered before making an investment;
A9 ⫽ importance given to opinion of peers; B1 ⫽ I have sufficient of Indian stock market; B2 ⫽ I am
confident of my ability to pick better stocks than others; B3 ⫽ I take full control and responsibility of my
portfolio performance; B5 ⫽ my past investment successes are attributed to my own skills and
understanding; B6 ⫽ my past investment successes make me invest more in stocks; B7 ⫽ I plan to Table VII.
increase my investment in stock market in next quarter; B16 ⫽ if NSE drops by 3%, then it would Independent sample
recover within few days t-test results for age
QRFM different. Age group 4 is overconfident about their knowledge of the Indian stock market
7,3 (B1), while age group 3 believes that they have the ability to pick better stock than others
(B2) and age group 2 agrees that their past investment successes are attributed only to
their own skills and understanding (B3). Further, the disposition effect influences the
trading volume of only age group 2 where they agree that past investment success make
them invest more in stocks (B6). As far as herding is concerned all age groups give due
244 importance to the opinion of their peer group, except Group 2. Group 4 shows an
additional herding tendency by agreeing that discussing investment decisions with
colleagues reduces their pressure of being successful.
5.3.3 Profession (refer Table VIII). Profession influences optimism (pessimism),
overconfidence and the disposition effect, but, does not create any difference in herding
bias (Table VIII). Further, it has an impact on the three biases under specific situations.
Group 4 is optimistic (A1 and B7), overconfident (B1 and B2) and also shows the
disposition effect (B6). However, Groups 1, 2 and 3 are pessimistic (A4) or slightly
optimistic (A1) with respect to the Indian equity market. Group 2 is neutral about
investing in the stock market in the next quarter, while group 5 is optimistic about it
(B7). Group 1 is overconfident as they attribute the success only to their own skills and
understanding (B5), while the other groups either disagree (Group 5) or have a neutral
opinion on this statement (Groups 2, 3 and 4). Finally, the impact of the disposition effect
(B6) is seen in Group 1, 2 and 4 but not in Groups 3 and 5.
Bias
Disposition
Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence effect Herding
Group Item Response Item Response Item Response Item Response
Notes: The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each
other. Items highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. (⫺) sign implies that the bias has an equal
impact on the categories of profession. Brief description of items is mentioned here; A1 ⫽ outlook for the
Indian equity market; A4 ⫽ prospect of gold prices in next six months; B1 ⫽ I have sufficient of Indian
Table VIII. stock market; B2 ⫽ I am confident of my ability to pick better stocks than others; B5 ⫽ my past
Independent sample investment successes are attributed to my own skills and understanding; B6 ⫽ my past investment
t-test results for successes make me invest more in stocks; B7 ⫽ I plan to increase my investment in stock market in next
profession quarter; B16 ⫽ if NSE drops by 3%, then it would recover within few days
5.3.4 Income (refer Table IX). It is seen that income level influences three out of four Behavioral
biases which includes overconfidence, optimism (pessimism), disposition effect but not biases of
herding (Table IX). It is observed that income classes 1, 4 and 5 are less pessimistic and
more optimistic than income classes 2 and 3 as they think that gold prices will remain
Indian
stable. They think a little about potential loss before investing and they feel that NSE investors
can recover within few days. This in contrast with classes 2 and 3 who take into account
mostly the potential loss from an investment (A6) and think that gold prices will 245
improve in the future (A4). Income class 2 is neutral about the recovery of NSE. The
results also show that income class 4 and 5 are susceptible to overconfidence while
classes 3 and 4 are prone to the disposition effect. Here, overconfidence is seen with
respect to knowledge of the Indian equity market (B1) and the ability to pick better
stocks than others (B2) while, the disposition effect is seen with respect to item B6.
5.3.5 Investment type (refer Table X). A major difference can be seen between the
investors of old companies (Group 2) and new companies (Group 1) (Table X). This
variation is observed in four items corresponding to overconfidence, optimism and
herding. The results reveal that the investors of new companies (Group1) are slightly
more optimistic than the investors of old companies, derivatives and commodities and
high-grade corporate bonds (Group 2, 3 and 4, respectively). The pessimism of Groups 2,
3 and 4 is suggested by the fact that they think mostly about potential loss before
investing (A6). In addition to this, Groups 2 and 4 feel that the gold prices will improve
Bias
Disposition
Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence effect Herding
Class Item Response Item Response Item Response Item Response
1 A4 Stable –
A6 A little about potential
loss
B16 Agree
2 A4 Improve B1, B2 Neutral B6 Neutral –
A6 Mostly potential
loss
B16 Neutral
3 A4 Improve B1, B2 Neutral B6 Agree –
4 A6 A little about potential B1, Agree B6 Agree –
loss B2
B7, B16 Agree
5 A4 Stable B2 Agree –
B16 Neutral
Notes: The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each
other. Items highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. (⫺) sign implies that the bias has an equal
impact on the categories of income level. Brief description of items is mentioned here; A4 ⫽ prospect of
gold prices in next six months; A6 ⫽ issues considered before making an investment; B1 ⫽ I have
sufficient of Indian stock market; B2 ⫽ I am confident of my ability to pick better stocks than others; Table IX.
B6 ⫽ my past investment successes make me invest more in stocks; B7 ⫽ I plan to increase my Independent sample
investment in stock market in next quarter; B16 ⫽ if NSE drops by 3%, then it would recover within few t-test results for
days income level
QRFM Bias
7,3 Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence Disposition effect Herding
Item Item Response Item Response Item Response
Group code Response code code code code code code code
Notes: The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each
other. Items highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. (⫺) sign implies that the bias has an equal
impact on the categories of investment type. Brief description of items is mentioned here; A3 ⫽
confidence about the correctness of response given in item A2; A4 ⫽ prospect of gold prices in next six
Table X. months; A6 ⫽ issues considered before making an investment; B1 ⫽ I have sufficient of Indian stock
Independent sample market; B4 ⫽ discussing investment decisions with colleagues reduces pressure; B7 ⫽ I plan to increase
t-test results for my investment in stock market in next quarter; B16 ⫽ if NSE drops by 3%, then it would recover within
investment type few days
in the next six months (A4), which further suggests their pessimism toward the Indian
equity market.
The difference between Group 1 and other categories also lies for other biases like
overconfidence and herding. Group 1 is overconfident that their knowledge of the Indian
equity market is sufficient (B1), while other groups take a neutral stance. This group is
also prone to herding as they feel that discussing their investment decisions reduces
their pressure of being successful (B4).
5.3.6 Trading experience (refer Table XI). It is observed that with increase in
experience, the investors become more prone to overconfidence (Table XI). For instance,
Groups 3-5 agree on situations representing overconfidence. They agree that they have
sufficient knowledge of the stock market (B1), they have the ability to pick better stocks
(B2), and they alone are fully responsible for their investment performance (B3). All the
groups are prone to the disposition effect as tend to sell their winners early to lock in
their gains (A8), except Group 2. The groups 4 and 5 are optimistic of the Indian stock
market as they feel that gold prices will remain stable (A4), they plan to increase their
investment in the next quarter (B7) and also feel that NSE can recover from a fall within
few days (B16). Herd mentality only affects the highest (5) and lowest experience class
(1). However, the situations in which they will herd vary. For Class 1, the opinion of the
peer group is considered to be important. For Class 5, discussion with colleagues reduces
the pressure of being successful as the respondents seek confirmation from them on
their decisions. Conversely, when they take a contrarian position from the group and
Bias
Behavioral
Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence Disposition effect Herding biases of
Item Response Item Response Item Response Item Response Indian
Group code code code code code code code code investors
1 A4 Improve A3 Not sure A8 Sell and A9 Important
lock gains
B7 Neutral B2, B3 Neutral
247
B16 Neutral
2 B7 Neutral B2, B4 Neutral A8 Stay put B4 Neutral
B16 Neutral B3 Agree
3 A4 Improve B2, B3 Agree A8 Sell and B4 Neutral
lock gains
B15 Neutral
4 A4 Stable A3 Sure A8 Sell and A9 Least
lock gains important
B7 Agree B1, B2, Agree B4 Neutral
B3
5 A4 Stable A3 Sure A8 Sell and B4, Agree
lock gains B15
B16 Agree B1, B2, Agree
B3
Notes: The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each
other. Items highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. (⫺) sign implies that the bias has an equal
impact on the categories of trading experience. Brief description of items is mentioned here; A3 ⫽
confidence about the correctness of response given in item A2; A4 ⫽ prospect of gold prices in next six
months; A8 ⫽ trading activity in response to increase in price of a newly bought stock; A9 ⫽ importance
given to opinion of peers; B1 ⫽ I have sufficient of Indian stock market; B2 ⫽ I am confident of my
ability to pick better stocks than others; B3 ⫽ I take full control and responsibility of my portfolio
performance; B4 ⫽ discussing investment decisions with colleagues reduces pressure; B7 ⫽ I plan to Table XI.
increase my investment in stock market in next quarter; B15 ⫽ disappointment after losing on a Independent sample
contrarian position as compared to following the crowd; B16 ⫽ if NSE drops by 3%, then it would t-test results for
recover within few days trading experience
fail, they become highly disappointed. In an ideal situation, the decision of the crowd
should not matter if they are not herding.
5.3.7 Trading frequency (refer Table XII). Intraday traders are found to be prone
to all the four biases. They are optimistic, overconfident, herd and have the
disposition effect on the selling side (Table XII). The investors who trade less
frequently are found to be more cautious in comparison to intraday traders.
Elaborating further, it is seen that intraday traders are optimistic about trading in
the stock market in the next quarter (B7). They also think that NSE can recover
within few days after falling 2-3 per cent (B16). These traders are prone to
overconfidence as they agree that they have sufficient knowledge of the stock
market (B1). Intraday traders also herd as they consider the review of their peers to
be important (A9) and discussing these decisions with colleagues reduces this
pressure (B4). The only bias which affects all the categories equally is the
disposition effect as all of them would sell their stocks to lock in their gains.
QRFM Bias
7,3 Disposition
Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence effect Herding
Item Item Response Item Response Item
Group code Response code code code code code code Response code
Notes: The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each
other. Items highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. (⫺) sign implies that the bias has an equal
impact on the categories of trading frequency. Brief description of items is mentioned here; A4 ⫽
prospect of gold prices in next six months; A6 ⫽ issues considered before making an investment; A9 ⫽
Table XII. importance given to opinion of peers; B1 ⫽ I have sufficient of Indian stock market; B4 ⫽ discussing
Independent sample investment decisions with colleagues reduces pressure; B6 ⫽ my past investment successes make me
t-test results for invest more in stocks; B7 ⫽ I plan to increase my investment in stock market in next quarter; B16 ⫽ if
trading frequency NSE drops by 3%, then it would recover within few days
However, this bias has an additional influence on intraday traders, as they tend to
increase their trading activity after experiencing past success in their stocks (B6).
The results of independent sample t-test illustrate that investors with certain
characteristics are prone to a specific bias. These characteristics can be summarized to
develop an investor profile related to each bias. The same is being discussed here (refer
Table XIII).
Overconfidence affects those investors who are male (Group 1), lying under the age
group of 31-60 years (Groups 2, 3 and 4), with annual income, either 2-4 lakhs (class 1) or
8-11 lakhs (class 4). These investors, mostly invest in new companies with high growth
(group 1), with a trading experience of three years or more (Groups 3, 4 and 5) trade on
an intraday basis (group 1). They can be used by PSU’s and Government sector (Group
1) or they can be financial experts (Group 4).
Optimism is observed in men (Group 1), with the age group of 51-60 years (Group 4),
annual income 2-4 lakhs (Class1) and greater than 8 lakhs (Class 4 and Class 5), who
invest in new companies with high growth (Group 1), with an experience of more than 5
years (Groups 4 and 5) intraday traders and financial experts. On the other hand,
pessimism is observed in women, with age group 21-30 years (Group 1) and 41-50 years
Behavioral bias
Behavioral
Demographic/investor biases of
sophistication Herd Disposition Indian
variables Overconfidence Optimism Pessimism behavior effect investors
Gender 1 1 2 – –
Age 2,3,4 4 1,3 4 2
Profession 1,4 4 – 1,2,4
249
Income 4,5 1,4,5 2,3 – 3,4
Investment type 1 1 2,3,4 1 –
Trading experience 3,4,5 4,5 – 1,5 1,3,4,5
Trading frequency 1 1 1 1 1
Table XIII.
Notes: The table presents the demographic and investor sophistication characteristics representing Investor profile
each bias. The values in the table are codes of demographic and investor sophistication categories. (⫺) corresponding to
sign implies that the bias has an equal impact on the categories of corresponding variable each bias
(Group 3), having an annual income between 2 to 8 lakhs. It is also seen in respondents
who invest in stocks of old companies (Group 2), derivatives and commodities market,
and high-grade corporate bonds.
Herd behavior is seen in relatively old investors of age 51-60 years (Group 4), those
who invest in new companies with high growth (Group 1), with very low experience (less
than a year) or very high experience (greater than seven years), and are intraday
investors (Group 1).
Finally, the disposition effect influences men and women equally. However, it is seen
clearly in investors coming within the age group of 31-40 years (Group 2), with an annual
income of 6-11 lakhs (group 3 and 4), and an experience of less than one year or more
than three years (Groups 3, 4 and 5). The investors prone to this bias are either public
and private sector employees (excluding banks) or financial experts (Group 1, 2 and 4)
and they trade on an intraday basis (Group 1) or 0-3 months.
All the results are significant at the 5 and 1 per cent level.
Age A1, A2, A4, A6, B7, B16 B1, B2, B3 A8, B9, A10, B4, B13, B15
B12
Gender A1, A4, B16 A3, B1, B3, B5 B6 B14
Education A1 B6, B12 B4
Profession A1, A4, B7 A3, B1, B5 A7, B6, B8
B12
Income A4, A6, B7, B16 A3, B1, B2, B3, B5 B6, B12 B8
Investment type A1, A4, A6, B16 A3, A5, B1, B2, B5 B4
Experience A2, A4 A3, B1, B2, B3 A8, B12 A10, B4
Frequency A1, A4, B7, B16 A3, B1, B2, B3 A8, B9, A9, A10, B4, B8,
B12 B13, B14
Notes: The table displays the result for items and the biases they represent that significantly
discriminate between the subgroups of dependent variable. Brief description of items is mentioned here;
A1 ⫽ outlook for the Indian equity market; A2 ⫽ average return of Indian stock market; A3 ⫽
confidence about the correctness of response given in item A2; A4 ⫽ prospect of gold prices in next six
months; A6 ⫽ issues considered before making an investment; A7 ⫽ trading activity in response to
decrease in price of a newly bought stock; A8 ⫽ trading activity in response to increase in price of a
newly bought stock; A9 ⫽ importance given to opinion of peers; B1 ⫽ I have sufficient of Indian stock
market; B2 ⫽ I am confident of my ability to pick better stocks than others; B3 ⫽ I take full control and
responsibility of my portfolio performance; B4 ⫽ discussing investment decisions with colleagues
reduces pressure; B5 ⫽ my past investment successes are attributed to my own skills and
understanding; B6⫽ my past investment successes make me invest more in stocks; B7⫽ I plan to
increase my investment in stock market in next quarter; B8 ⫽ increase in trading activity with increase
in past trading volume of stock market; B9 ⫽ selling winners early; B12 ⫽ holding on to losing stocks;
Table XIV. B13 ⫽ purchasing those stocks that have many “buy” orders; B15 ⫽ disappointment after losing on a
Summarized results contrarian position as compared to following the crowd; B16 ⫽ if NSE drops by 3%, then it would
of equality of means recover within few days
No. of significant
Behavioral
discriminant Chi-square biases of
Dependent variable functions Test of functions Wilk’s value Indian
Age 3 1 through 4, 0.49 270.80** investors
2 through 4, 0.68 149.26**
3 through 4 0.81 80.56**
Gender 1 0.87 55.49*
251
Profession 3 1 through 4, 0.47 284.53**
2 through 4, 0.64 172.89**
3 through 4 0.78 95.34**
Income 1 1 through 4 0.60 195.24**
Investment type 1 1 through 4 0.68 149.92**
Experience 2 1 through 4, 0.63 176.58**
2 through 4 0.75 108.92**
Frequency 2 1 through 4, 0.54 236.45**
2 through 4 0.74 118.31**
Notes: The table summarizes the results of Wilk’s lambda test which investigates the number of
significant discriminant functions. In case of demographic variable “education” none of the Table XV.
discriminant functions are found to be significant and thus they are not reported in the present Summarised results
table; * Significant at the 5% level; ** significant at the 1% level of wilks’s lambda
Significant Disposition
Dependent discriminant Optimism Overconfidence effect Herding
variable function Item Item Item Item
Notes: The table summarizes the result of structured matrix. The items that are significantly
correlated with the respective discriminant function corresponding to each dependent variable are Table XVI.
mentioned. In case of demographic variable “gender” none of the items are significantly correlated with Summarized results
its discriminant function, therefore, not reported in the present table of structured matrix
QRFM their opinion does not significantly differ for the items pertaining to the disposition
7,3 effect. These results are supporting the evidence given by the independent sample t-test.
5.4.2 Result of Wilk’s lambda (refer Table XV). The Wilk’s lambda is the ratio of the
within-group sum of squares to the total sum of squares. Its value lies between 0 and 1.
It gives the significance of discriminant functions. A small and significant lambda value
indicates that the group means significantly differ from each other (Malhotra, 2010). The
252 results of this test are summarized in Table XV. These results reveal the number of
significant discriminant function for each dependent variable. The total number of
discriminant functions equals n ⫺ 1, where n is the number of categories within each
dependent variable.
In this study, the variables: age, profession, income, investment type, trading
experience and frequency have five categories each, such that there are four
discriminant functions. However, the number of significant functions varies for each
variable. The dependent variables age and profession have three significant
discriminant functions out of four, which indicate that the means of Groups 1, 2 and 3
significantly differ from Group 4. Gender has one significant function revealing that the
group mean of males is significantly different from that of females. The variables
income and investment type have single discriminant function that is significant. It
shows that that the group means of Categories 1 and 4 vary significantly. This implies
that responses of low income group (less than 2 lakhs per annum) are significantly
different from that of relatively high income class (8-11 lakhs per annum), while the
mean responses of the investors of new companies are significantly different from the
investors of high grade corporate bonds. The result of trading experience reveals that
that the group means of investors with low trading experience (less than one year to
three years) varies significantly from the mean responses of investors with five to seven
years of experience. This is confirmed by two significant discriminant functions.
Finally, the variable trading frequency has two significant functions out of four. It
implies that the mean responses of intraday traders and those trading with a frequency
of zero to three months differ significantly from the responses of investors who trade on
yearly basis or once in three years (12-36 months). The results are significant at the 1 per
cent level. The test results of education are not presented as none of the discriminant
functions are found to be significant.
5.4.3 Results of structured matrix (refer Table XVI). The structured matrix presents
the correlations between the independent or predictor variables and the discriminant
function (Malhotra, 2010). The detailed description of the results is mentioned below.
Age 56.40
Gender 72.10
Education 66.30
Profession 54.60
Income 48.10
Table XVII. Investment type 64.80
Summarized result of Experience 46.40
hit ratio: Frequency 46.1
5.4.3.1 Age. The results reveal that first discriminant function is significantly correlated Behavioral
with optimism, overconfidence and herding biases, while the second discriminant biases of
function is correlated with all the biases. The final discriminant function has significant Indian
correlation with optimism, disposition effect and herding.
5.4.3.2 Profession. Of the three significant discriminant functions, the first is investors
correlated with optimism and the disposition effect, the second with optimism,
overconfidence and herding, while the third function is correlated with the disposition 253
effect and herding.
5.4.3.3 Income. The discriminant function has significant correlation with optimism,
overconfidence had herding but not the disposition effect.
5.4.3.4 Investment type. It can be seen that the discriminant function is significantly
correlated with all the behavioral biases, i.e. optimism, overconfidence, the disposition
effect and herding.
5.4.3.5 Trading experience. In this case, the first discriminant function is correlated
with all the four biases, while the second discriminant function represents
overconfidence, the disposition effect and herding.
5.4.3.6 Trading frequency. The results indicate that of the two significant
discriminant functions, the first function represents all the biases, while the second
function relates to optimism, the disposition effect and herding.
The results of gender and education are not presented. This is because in the case of
gender, the correlation values are not significant, while there are no significant
discriminant functions in the case of education.
5.4.4 Results of hit ratio (refer Table XVII). Hit ratio determines the percentage of
cases correctly classified by the discriminant analysis (Malhotra, 2010). The results
indicate that more than 50 per cent of cases are correctly specified for the age, gender,
education, profession and investment type. For the remaining variables, i.e. income,
trading experience and frequency the hit ratio is more than 45 per cent.
5.5 Results for one sample t-test (Part-A) (refer Table XVIII)
It can be seen that 44.6 per cent of respondents are slightly optimistic toward the outlook
of the Indian equity market (A1) (Table XVIII). When asked about the average return of
the Indian equity market in the past 15 years, 54.29 per cent respondents gave a realistic
estimate (A2) and 43.9 per cent are sure about it (A3). Their perspective was
cross-checked with their future estimate on gold prices (A4). As discussed in earlier
sections, a highly optimistic view for gold prices indicates that investors are uncertain
about the performance of the stock market. This makes them channelize their demand
toward gold, which is considered to be a safe asset. In the present study, 33.7 per cent
investors feel that gold prices will improve in next six months and an equal percentage
of the sample feels that the prices will remain stable. Also, 69.3 per cent respondents are
sure about their gold price estimates (A5). This result provides a mixed viewpoint of
investors toward the Indian equity market. However, greater clarity on respondents’
outlook is developed from responses in subsequent items in Part B.
Taking into consideration what investors look for in an investment (A6), it is found
that 32.4 per cent look for security of investment, i.e. risk versus return, and 31.4 per cent
think mostly about potential gain from an investment. The remaining sample
respondents either think about losses or both gains and losses.
QRFM Response code with % of total
7,3 Items Mean t-stat Significance maximum frequency response
Notes: * Significant at the 5% level; ** significant at the 1% level; the table presents the overall
ranking based on mean values of all the items in Part B. The control items and items with insignificant Table XIX.
means have been excluded from the analysis. Part B is a five-point Likert scale where SD ⫽ strongly Ranking of items in
Disagree, D ⫽ disagree, N ⫽ neutral, A ⫽ agree and SA ⫽ strongly Agree Part B
overconfidence bias. Third rank of importance is given to B7 where investors agree that
they plan to increase their investment in next quarter, which shows their optimism
about the Indian equity market. Ranks 4 and 5 are given to items B15 and B1, which
pertain to herding and overconfidence. The item B16 corresponding to the optimism of
investors on the recovery of NSE takes Rank 6. The remaining of the items capturing
herd behavior (B4, B14 and B13) gets Ranks7, 9 and 10, respectively. The items on
disposition effect get relatively lower ranks than all other biases wherein statement B6
is given Rank 8 and B12 and B9 are given lowest ranks, i.e. 11 and 12. The results are
significant at the 5 and 1 per cent level.
The overall ranking provides a broad idea that which statement is given the highest
importance. However, it does not illustrate the same result for the four biases because
items capturing same bias have different ranks. For instance, items B3, B2 and B1 relate
to overconfidence and they take Ranks 1, 2 and 5, respectively. This makes it
inconclusive for the researcher to ascertain a particular rank to overconfidence. Similar
case prevails in all the other biases. Therefore, to get a clear picture of the order of
prevalence, bias-wise ranking of items is done, which is followed by the consolidation of
means.
5.6.2 Bias-wise ranking (refer Table XX). It is seen that item B3 gets the highest level
of importance (3.83) under overconfidence bias (Table XX). Taking into consideration
the optimism bias, the results reveal that statement B7 is given the highest importance
(3.67). The respondents show highest herding tendency with the item B15 (mean level of
importance ⫽ 3.45). They agree to statement B15 where they feel extremely
disappointed if they go opposite to the general trend and lose while their friends make
money.
Finally, the disposition effect is observed highest in the situation where people
increase their trading activity in stocks after experiencing past success (B6, the mean
level of importance ⫽ 3.37). The results are significant at the 1 per cent level.
QRFM 5.6.3 Order of the prevalence of biases (refer Table XXI). After consolidation of mean
7,3 values of importance, each bias gets one value, and based on this value the ranks are
given starting from highest to lowest (Table XXI). The results reveal that
overconfidence is most prevalent bias with the highest mean (3.64) closely followed by
optimism (3.54) and herding (3.10). The disposition effect is found to be least important
bias with a mean of 2.83.
256
6. Conclusion and implications
The Indian stock market has seen turbulent times in the recent past. It has experienced
a sharp dip in 2008 from the heights of 2006, followed by a series of ups and downs in the
subsequent years, till 2013 (Figure 1).
This was the period when markets observed sharp swings in sentiments from
positive to negative in a very short span of time (Subash, 2012). Thus, a research based
on investor behavior becomes relevant and interesting. The present study attempts to
make an effort in this direction. It explores the presence and impact of four behavioral
biases in the Indian equity market, namely, herding, optimism (pessimism),
overconfidence and the disposition effect. The survey results capture the current state of
Figure 1.
Annual returns of
Nifty 50 during the
period of 2006-2013
behavioral biases of Indian investors in the Delhi/NCR area. It is observed that Behavioral
behavioral biases are dependent on investors’ demographics as well as their trading biases of
sophistication. The highest influencing factors amongst these variables are age, Indian
profession and trading frequency. Further, the survey presents the investor
characteristics specific to each bias. Some evidence confirms what is already known
investors
from previous researches. For instance, it is seen that men are more overconfident than
women regarding their knowledge of Indian stock market. This finding is comparable 257
with previous researches like Lewellen et al. (1977), Barber and Odean (2001) and
Seppälä (2009). Women are found to less confident and more pessimistic than men with
respect to the Indian stock market as they think that gold prices will improve in near
future. Another interesting observation is that respondents with highest trading
experience (more than seven years) and highest trading frequency (intraday traders) are
prone to all the biases. This is in contrast to the results by Feng and Seasholes (2005), as
the increase in investor sophistication did not help in curtailing the behavioral biases of
Indian investors. Further, old investors are found to be highly vulnerable as they show
the propensity toward all the four biases. More importantly, this age group is prone to
herding. These respondents consider the opinion of their peers to be important.
Additionally, they feel more secure about their success after they discussed their
investment decisions with colleagues. On the other hand, the disposition effect is present
in middle-aged investors who tend to increase their trading activity if they have
experienced past success in their stocks. The other parameters on which these biases
can be differentiated are annual income, profession and trading experience. The
robustness of these tests have been verified with the help of discriminant analysis. Our
main conclusion is that, on ranking these biases in their order of prevalence,
overconfidence comes out to be the most important bias in the Indian equity market.
This study has certain relevant implications for financial practitioners in making
stock selection decisions. It can be suggested that a good grasp of this area will equip the
practitioners not just to recognize others mistakes but their own mistakes as well. It
facilitates financial advisors to become more effective by understanding their clients’
psychology. It aids them in developing behaviorally modified portfolio, which best suits
their clients’ predisposition. It helps investment bankers in understanding the market
sentiments as they make public issues for their companies. It assists the financial
strategists in making better forecasts and security analysts for recommending stocks.
Finally, the knowledge of behavioral biases is required for individual investors in the
pursuit of making sensible and effective financial decisions.
Notes
1. Source: The Economic Times Survey 2012-2013. Available at: http://articles.economictimes.
indiatimes.com/2013-09-12/news/42011594_1_capita-income-2-28-lakh-sound-economic-
situation
2. Source: Business Standard. Available at: www.business-standard.com/article/markets/
indian-equity-mkt-provides-tremendous-opportunities-survey-110100700252_1.html
3. According to National Council of Applied Economic Research (year 2007-2008), the
middle-income category lies anywhere between 3,830 and 22,970 US dollars annually which is
equal to 2.8-14.3l akhs in I.N.R (Shukla and Purusothaman, 2008).
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Appendix 1. Questionnaire Behavioral
Dear Respondent
biases of
The purpose of this survey is to learn your views on investment pattern in general. Your responses will be Indian
kept confidential and used only for academic purposes. Please provide following information about
yourself.
investors
1. Name: ___________________
2. Age: ___________________
3. Gender: 261
a. Male b. Female
4. Educaonal qualificaon
a. Undergraduate b. Graduate c. Post-graduate d. Doctorate
5. Current profession: _____________
6. Annual income:_________________
7. Have you invested stock markets before?
a. Yes b. No
8. If yes, then please specify which type of securies are you most comfortable in invesng.
a. Stocks or mutual funds of new companies with high growth.
b. Stocks or mutual funds of old companies with high growth.
c. Derivaves and commodies market
d. High grade corporate bonds.
e. Debt and Liquid funds from AMC’s
f. Others (Please specify)
9. For how long have you been invesng?
a. Less than 1 year b. 1-3 years c. 3-5 years d. 5-7 years e. more than 7 years
10. When do you decide to invest?
a. When surplus funds are available
b. On friends’ advice
c. Market movements
d. Analyst forecasts in News media
11. How frequently do you invest in equity markets?
a. Intraday b. 0-3 months c. 3-12 months d. 12-36 months e. 36 months or more
PART-A
Kindly ck only one relevant choice.
1. My outlook for Indian equity market in near future is:
a. Very opmisc b. Slightly opmisc c. Cannot say d. Slightly pessimisc
d. Very pessimisc
2. What do you think is the average return of Indian stock market for last 15 years? __________
3. How sure are you to your answer to queson 1?
a. Extremely sure b. Sure c. Not sure d. Don’t know
4. I think the prospects of gold prices in next six months will:
a. Improve significantly b. Improve c. Stable d. Decline e. Decline significantly
5. How sure are you to your answer to queson 2?
a. Extremely sure b. Sure c. Not sure d. Don’t know
6. Before making an investment I think:
a. Mostly about the potenal gain
b. A lile about potenal gain
c. Mostly about potential loss
d. A lile about potenal loss
e. Both
f. Security of investment (i.e. risk v/s return)
(continued)
QRFM 7. Consider that just within two months aer you put money into an investment your stock price
valued at Rs. 100 declines by 20% to Rs. 80. Assuming that none of the fundamentals have
7,3 changed, how would you respond?
a. I would remain invested and ignore temporary changes as I look for long term growth.
b. I would buy more as it was a good investment before now it’s cheap investment too.
c. I would sell to avoid further worries and try something else.
d. I would discuss this situaon with my fellow traders and do what they are doing.
262 8. The price of your investment jumps by 25% a month aer you buy it. The fundamentals of the
firms remain same, how would you respond now?
a. I would buy more as the price could go higher.
b. I would sell it and lock in my gains.
c. I would stay put and hope for more gains
d. I would discuss this situaon with my fellow traders and do what they are doing.
9. How important are your peers for you as a source of information?
a. Extremely important b. Important c. Least important d. Not important at all
10. How important are other market parcipants (includes brokers, fund managers, instuonal
investors, analysts etc.) for you as a source of informaon?
a. Extremely important b. Important c. Least important d. Not important at all
PART – B
Please answer the following quesons by circling your preferred response where:
SD D N A SA
Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree
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