Climate change in Africa:
The threat to agriculture
Overview
Climate change is emerging as a major challenge to agriculture development in Africa. The
increasingly unpredictable and erratic nature of weather systems on the continent have
placed an extra burden on food security and rural livelihoods. Widespread destruction of
farms and homes in recent record flooding in Burkina Faso and the prolonged drought in
Ethiopia, demonstrate the extent of the threat posed by Africa’s changing climate.
Agriculture is expected to pay a significant cost of the damage caused by climate change.
Progress on rural development has already been hit hard by the combined effect of the
global financial downturn and the food crisis, as a result, hunger and malnutrition trends
remain stubbornly high. Without extensive adaptation the effects of climate change on
agriculture is expected to exacerbate Africa’s deepening food crisis, narrowing channels of
food access and slowing efforts to expand food productivity.
The impact of climate change on African agriculture
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report provides an extensive
assessment on the expected effects of climate change on agriculture in the Africa region. It
estimates that Africa will be the most vulnerable to climate change globally, due to the
multiple stresses of poor infrastructure, poverty and governance. Temperatures are likely to
increase by between 1.5-4ºc in this century. Projections on yield reduction show a drop of up
to 50% and crop revenue is forecast to fall by as much as 90% by 2100.
The agriculture sector is also likely to experience © FAO
periods of prolonged droughts and /or floods during El-
Nino events. Agriculture losses of between 2-7% of
GDP is expected by 2100 in parts of the Sahara, 2-4%
& 0.4-1.3% in Western and Central Africa and Northern
and Southern Africa respectively. Arid and semi arid
land could expand in coverage by 60-80M ha. Fisheries
will be particularly affected due to changes in sea
temperatures that could decrease trends in productivity
by 50-60%. According to ODI, productivity in Africa will be further undermined by a reduction
in fertile agricultural land available and an expansion in the coverage of low potential land.
World Bank forecasts show that SSA will surpass Asia as the most food insecure region
inhabiting 40-50% of undernourished people globally in 2080 compared with 24% today.
Levels of viable arable land for production are predicted to decline by 2080, with 9-20% of
arable land becoming much less suitable for agriculture.
Climate Change in Africa: The threat to agriculture
In response to variations in temperature and precipitation, Africa is predicted to see an
increase in crop pests and diseases in addition to altered soil fertility. Declining incomes and
rising unemployment are expected to hit agriculture zones in combination to worsening
health. A fall in nutrient access is likely to raise susceptibility to diseases such as malaria and
HIV/AIDS.
Conversely not all assessments of the impact of climate change in Africa are negative, there
are likely to be some positive aspects due to changes in seasons and production cycles.
Ethiopia and Southern Africa are expected to have extended growing seasons due to climate
change, a consequence of increased temperature and rainfall changes. In addition the
livestock sector could be boosted by temperature increases, according to IPCC models, an
increase in 5ºc could mean a rise in farmer incomes by up to 58%.
Overall climate change presents a substantial challenge to regional agricultural development.
From food security, nutrition to sustainable management, climate change is a significant
threat to the welfare of millions of the continents rural poor. Without extensive current
strategies on adaptation for agriculture in Africa, the region will remain vulnerable in its
exposure to the widespread effects of climate change.
Prospects for adaptation at regional level
Action on regional responses to climate change has gathered
© FAO speed over the last three years as awareness has grown
concerning the environmental impact on Africa. The 8th session of
the African Union (AU) in 2006 endorsed the Action Plan for
Africa on climate change based on the integration of climate
change considerations into development strategies.
Subsequently, during the Joint Annual Meeting of AU and ECA
March/April 2008 ministers called for AUC, ECA and AfDB to
provide further support to the consultative process for African participation in climate change
negotiations, with a particular focus on building capacity to access funding from mechanisms
such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
The African Union assembly of Heads of State and Government in Sirte, Libya July 2009 and
the Third Special session of the African Ministerial conference on the Environment in Nairobi,
Kenya set out the agenda for a regional climate change strategy, calling on full
implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that calls
for the stabilization of greenhouses gases to ensure the protection of food production and
sustainable economic development.
The capacity of African government to act unilaterally on climate change, has been
hampered by the global downturn. Declining government revenue due to falling incomes
from exports and remittances has placed added strain on efforts to generate funding for
mitigation and adaptation programmes.
Strategies for regional rural development have already been hit hard by the combined effects
of the global downturn and the global food crisis 07/08. Although progress on achieving the
millennium development goals in Africa has been slow, considerable efforts have been made
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Climate Change in Africa: The threat to agriculture
to reach regional targets on hunger and poverty reduction. Moreover growing momentum
under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) led by
NEPAD has contributed to a new lease of life for reform. Advances have been made in
agricultural research and commitments secured in reversing decade long under investment
in the sector.
Estimates predict economic losses as a result of climate change are up to 14% of GDP if
adaptation measures fail to be implemented. If this were to occur significant levels of
investment would need to be diverted away from key rural development projects in order to
respond to short term emergencies, in particular undermining the achievement of MDG1 and
core CAADP pillars.
Generating the necessary funding for climate change responses is proving to be a significant
challenge for the majority of African states. Estimates on adaptation requirements and
technological investment for Africa range between 5-10% of GDP for coastal countries alone.
According to a study by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the
environment, global warming could cost Africa between $50BN-100BN by 2020.
At the Second Pan Africa Parliamentary Network on climate Change summit held in October
this year, African leaders demanded that developed countries commit at least 1.5% of GDP
to provide the required resource to support adaptation actions in Africa.
Democratic Republic of Congo: Generating knowledge to
face climate change
The FAO “Communication for Sustainable Development Initiative"
(CSDI) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).is testing,
communication for development (ComDev) approaches to be used in
response to climate change The project aims at reducing the gap of
knowledge and information between research institutions and farmers
using ComDev tools and methodologies. A communication plan is
being designed for the dissemination of technology innovation
identified by national agriculture and forestry research and extension
systems.
The project works through rural radios and extension agencies using
communication tools such as farmer field schools and multimedia
materials.
DRC has also been selected as a pilot country as part of the UN
REDD* initiative following assistance from FAO in collaboration with
UNEP and UNDP
© FAO 2009
Despite increasing industrialization and urbanization, the continent produces a tiny
proportion of total carbon emissions. Contrarily, developed countries contribute significantly
more in total global emissions in comparison to the developing south. On average Africa
emits less than one ton per capita compared to over 10 tons per capita in Europe and North
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*REDD: Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries
Climate Change in Africa: The threat to agriculture
America (Unasylva 2009) As such, African governments in alliance with civil society
organisations (CSO) have pressed on developed nations to do more to support the
developing world in order to minimize the negative effects of climate change and variability,
highlighting the need for the reform of global climate change financing and governance.
US and EU proposals on climate change reform have provided only vague assurances in
funding for African adaptation. UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) reports that
resources for implementation of national adaptation plans prepared at country level are still
forthcoming whereas the Kyoto Protocol Adaptation fund is currently non-operational.
Renewed US engagement at the Copenhagen summit could provide a major boost to African
access to climate finance. Yet, despite early enthusiasm, the US has failed to present
detailed plans on future funding contributions to Africa.
Food Production in Ethiopia
Agriculture in Ethiopia is dominated by subsistence farming, the
primary source of livelihoods for the majority of the country. The level
of rainfall has a critical impact on the rate of crop yields, reducing
levels of food productivity.
Ethiopian farmers have adopted the range of adaptation measures,
including altering crop varieties, adopting soil and water conservation
and changing planting and harvesting periods.
A survey of 48 crops grow in the Nile River basin of Ethiopia showed
that farmers who took up adaptation methods produce between 93kg-
300kg per ha than those who did not alter their farming techniques,
reflecting a 10-29% difference in output.
Factors that increased farmers’ capacity to adapt included:
• Availability of information on local climate forecasts
• Access to formal and informal institutions e.g. agriculture
extension services
• Access to inputs; seeds, fertiliser
JotoAfrika 2009
Considering the vast majority of actions on climate change are funded by developed
countries, the slow release of funding for adaptation projects is a significant cause for alarm.
Regrettably, the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities (emphasized in the Kyoto treaty) has not been consistently applied in relation to
funding for climate change programmes in Africa.
The EU has established the Advancing Capacity to Support Climate Change Adaptation
project (ACCCA) that aims to build partnerships between stakeholders and scientific
communities in Africa to identify adaptation initiatives in order to reduce climate change
vulnerability. Low capacity of African research and development organisations is a major
challenge in accelerating climate change responses, scaling up such initiatives could prove
to be a significant contribution in strengthening adaptation efforts at regional level.
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Climate Change in Africa: The threat to agriculture
The road ahead: Recommendations for reform
Progress in delivering food security for Africa will be significantly
© FAO compromised by the negative effects of climate change.
Critically, the window of opportunity for investment in agriculture
is restrained due to the potential impact of climate change in
minimizing viable options for rural development. For example
investment in productivity can be optimized in conditions where
natural and labour resources are undamaged by the disruption to
crop cycles caused by climate change. This would mean
government and key stakeholders would be required to accelerate their efforts on expanding
production capacity to maximize results. FAO calls for strategies for agricultural
intensification and resilience of food production systems to be strengthened through the
formation of key synergies between mitigation and food security. Achieving this would largely
depend on successfully leveraging finance from mitigation in order to support climate smart
agricultural development strategies.
Moreover redoubling and consolidating existing projects and programme activities (including
greater integration of social protection strategies) will make a significant contribution in
reducing climbing trends on hunger and malnutrition at regional level.
Enhancing the low visibility of climate change policy in the African context is vital to achieving
greater political recognition for Africa in international negotiations on climate change. How
successful African leaders are in presenting their case for climate change reform on behalf of
the region at the Copenhagen summit, will substantially influence the direction and scope for
agriculture adaptation and mitigation programmes in the medium term.
Extensive adaptation measures to reduce the threat of climate change to agriculture
development in Africa are a long way from implementation. Much more needs to be done to
ensure that adequate insurance is in place to protect the rural poor against the dangers
posed to food security, sustainable development and rural livelihoods. Expanding knowledge
and capacity development by strengthening the ability of national and regional institutions to
carry out forecasts and resource monitoring is increasingly critical to delivering effective
responses to climate change at local level.
Fortifying progress made on food security and agriculture investment is reliant on the
continued alliance between African governments, international development organisations
and CSOs in the face of climate change. Additionally, mitigating the risk posed to agriculture
development is likely to be dependent on the scale of investments in adaptation and
diversification initiatives at national and regional level.
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Bibliography
ACCID(2009) Declaration of the Second Pan-Africa Parliamentary Network on Climate
change Summit, Nairobi, Kenya 12-15 October 2009
ACCID(2009) ‘Africa climate demands unlikely to be met: Ethiopian PM’ 18th November
Boko, M., I Niang, A. Nyong, C. A. Githeko, M. Medany, B. Osman-Elasha, R. Tabo
and P Yanda, (2007) Africa. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II t the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ECA (2008) AU Progress Report on Climate Change and Development
EU (2006) Action against climate change: Working with developing countries to tackle
climate change
FAO(2009) Food Security and Agricultural Mitigation in Developing Countries: Options
for capturing synergies
JotoAfrika (2009) Climate change and the threat to African food security
ODI (2007) The first development goal, agriculture and climate change,
Unasylva (2009) Climate change impacts, adaptation and links to sustainable
development in Africa,
World Bank (2008) Climate Change response strategies for agriculture: Challenges
and opportunities for the 21st century
World Bank (2009) Africa’s development in a changing climate
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December 2009
