Sustainable Development Policy Institute

Report Part Title: Climate Diplomacy and National Security

Report Title: Climate Change and Impacts on National Security of Pakistan

Report Author(s): Zainab Babar, Khalid Waleed and Hamas Younas
Published by: Sustainable Development Policy Institute (2024)
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 Climate Change and Impacts on
28 National Security of Pakistan

4.Climate Diplomacy and National Security

As discussed above, national security is greatly impacted by the climate crisis. The
impacts of climate change can be observed globally, especially on the global geopolitics.
The increased levels of green-house gases are raising the sea-levels, drying up the
water resources, and global temperatures have already increased which has threatened
the livelihoods and means of subsistence everywhere across the universe. In addition to
endangering people’s livelihoods and hindering development, the climate crisis also brings
up significant geopolitical issues pertaining to sovereignty, territorial integrity and access
to resource4s like food, energy and water.

The climate issue poses a threat to human security and raises the possibility of conflict
and instability. It has the potential to have substantial and unpredictable effects on society.
A comprehensive, global-level coordinated approach is needed to address them. This is
the point where climate diplomacy comes in Climate diplomacy refers to the deployment
of diplomatic instruments to mitigate the adverse effects that arise due to climate change.
Climate diplomacy aids in maintaining peace, stability, and prosperity, as well as supports
the goals and operations of the international climate change regime. It also utilizes the
climate change issue to advance other foreign policy goals like bolstering multilateralism,
fostering peace and confidence. It focuses on development of suitable risk assessment
and risk management plans at a global strategic level8. To accomplish this, climate action
needs to be the top priority in diplomatic discussions, public diplomacy, and foreign policy
tools as well as with partners across the globe.

Climate diplomacy is a long-standing tactic used by the developed nations to influence

international discussions in favour of outcomes that align with their interests. However, the
developing nations, in contrast, have frequently lacked the resources necessary to take an
active role in climate diplomacy. As a result, their ability to influence climate negotiations
has been limited. The developing nations lacks the capacity to strategically negotiate in
the domestic and international agendas because of their limited resources, and their
geo-political landscape (not able to gather technical and strategic information). It seems
simple to build their capacity but it requires a substantial institutional adjustment at both
governmental and non-governmental level. In case of Pakistan, the climate diplomacy
needs to build a development model that encompasses all of its needs; from climate
change adaptation to involvement of west in pertinent issues like finance and technology.

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 29

4.1. Tackling Issues of Transboundary Rivers with India

The water related issues between India and Pakistan are getting intense with time. The
Indus Water Treaty (IWT) survived diplomatic tensions for nearly sixty years, but the
current upstream water infrastructure projects have reignited the disputes. The pact is in
danger of collapsing due to territorial dispute over Kashmir. The accelerated melting of
Himalayan glaciers’ due to climate change is creating havoc and threating the long-term
access to clean water sources. These factors play a crucial role in determining the future
regional and inter-state relations.

The Indus river rises from high mountains of Tibet, the Himalayas, Hindu Kush and the
Karakoram. It provides water to 90% of the agriculture in Pakistan. As a result of excessive
groundwater extraction, and rising water demand, the Indus Basin is experiencing severe
water shortage. These problems are made worse by the climate change, as the loss of the
Himalayan Glacier alters water flow and unreliable monsoon rains increase the risk of
flooding. Tensions over the allocation of water could get worse and can affect the bilateral
relations in India and Pakistan.

India and Pakistan are experiencing diplomatic tensions as a result of the expected water
shortages in future. Conflict is widely thought to be more likely in both Pakistan and
India as a result of the divisive political narrative in both countries. India has used the
Islamic terror organizations as an excuse to abandon diplomatic ties with Pakistan, and
even threatened Pakistan to cut-off the water supply (Al Jazeera, 2019; Roy, 2019). On the
other hand, Pakistani media has attributed India’s inadequate water management as the
reason for floods in Pakistan (Mustafa et al., 2017). Additionally, there is a rising concern
in Pakistan that India may utilize its upstream dams to regulate the amount of water that
enters Pakistan through the Indus. These factors are major strains for diplomatic relations
between India and Pakistan.

4.2. Diplomatic Efforts to Manage Scarce Resources

Pakistan, is a country that is dealing with climate injustice. Unprecedented monsoon rains
in 2023 resulted in devastating floods that buried a third of the nation, forced millions of
people to flee, and caused an estimated $30 billion in economic losses. The “Loss and
Damage” finance mechanism, which was established at COP 27 and is a critical step
towards climate justice for vulnerable nations.

Pakistan is experiencing a climate poly crisis. Considering the economic situation of

Pakistan, it is responsibility of the developed countries to assist Pakistan and the other
developing countries in mitigating the impacts of climate change and explore other

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 Climate Change and Impacts on
30 National Security of Pakistan

avenues to combat climate change or climate change adaptation. The developed countries
need to mobilize resources to the least developed countries on top-prioirity for climate
action.

To deal with the situation, effective policy solutions are required for carbon pricing,
technology developments, and financial tools that encourage sustainable practices.
However, effective implementation of these policies is a challenge due to the political
and economic disparities within these regions, and their reliance on fossil fuels. But a
huge opportunity exists in presenting climate change as a business opportunity via clean
energy and green jobs. To establish platforms for climate action, the existing regional
organizations such as the GCC and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC) can be reinforced.

Through South-South cooperation, Pakistan and the GCC countries can exchange
experiences and best practices with other developing nations that are experiencing the
similar adversities through information transfer and potential joint ventures for addressing
climate change9. Financial aid and knowledge exchange programs can serve as incentives
for wealthier nations to transfer their technology, thereby promoting an equitable global
economic order. In addition, interpersonal interactions facilitated by cultural events,
collaborative research initiatives, and student exchange programs can foster a worldwide
movement for climate action and a sense of shared responsibility for the environment.

Pakistan and the GCC have the opportunity to guarantee their own futures while also
serving as a leading example for international collaboration and the advancement of a
more sustainable global economic order by collaborating in climate diplomacy, extending
current cooperation, and leveraging the capabilities of the SIFC.

4.3. Pakistan’s Role in International Agreements & Impacts on National

Security

Pakistan’s national security is significantly impacted by its active participation in

international climate change agreements. By engaging in global efforts to combat climate
change, Pakistan demonstrates its commitment to address environmental challenges
that pose serious threat to the national security. Pakistan has approved the following
three accords; the international legal framework for multilateral efforts to combat climate
change is provided by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCC), the Kyoto Protocol (1997), and the Paris Agreement (2015). Pakistan places great

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induced-challenges

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 31

emphasis on fostering global collaboration as a means of effectively addressing climate

change. The nation is still actively participating in the UNFCC and Paris Agreement
negotiations. Pakistan led the developing nations as a Chair of Group of 77 & China in
2022, in the climate change negotiations at COP-27 in November 2022 in Sharm-el-Sheikh,
Egypt.

The COP27 resulted in establishment of loss and damage to alleviate the adversities
caused by climate change. This decision is a huge accomplishment, particularly for China
and the Group of 77, as developing nations had been calling for one for the last 30 years.
The devastating floods brought on by climate change that struck Pakistan in 2022 and
caused losses and damages over $30 billion brought this pressing issue back into the
focus. Pakistan pushed for a consensual accord and got the fund added to the Conference
agenda in order to mobilize support for its creation at COP27 and operationalization at
COP28.

Pakistan firmly believes that in order to mitigate the negative effects of climate change
before it is too late, there is an urgent need for increased global climate action and
international cooperation. This belief is based on the established principles common but
shared responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). Pakistan has emphasized
the necessity of closing the implementation gap between the global climate financing
commitments, and adaptation and mitigation strategies, while maintaining a balanced
focus on loss and damage.

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