Chronic Disease Prediction Using Machine Learning

SHAURYA KESHARI SUMIT KUMAR YADAV VRINDA SACHDEVA

(Department of Computer Science) (Department of Computer Science) (Department of Computer Science)
Greater Noida , India Greater Noida , India Greater Noida , India
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Abstract—Chronic diseases, including diabetes and obesity,

have emerged as significant global health challenges,
exacerbated in the post-COVID-19 era due to altered
symptomatology and delayed diagnoses. Early detection and
accurate treatment are critical for managing these conditions
effectively, reducing healthcare burdens, and improving
patient outcomes. This paper presents a machine learning
(ML)-based system designed to predict chronic diseases and
recommend appropriate medications tailored to individual
patients. The proposed system leverages multiple supervised
learning algorithms, including Logistic Regression, Random
Forest, Decision Trees, Naïve Bayes, and K-Nearest
Neighbours(KNN), to anale patient data and identify the
likelihood of chronic disease presence. The datasets used in the
project incorporate diverse health parameters, enabling robust
prediction capabilities.

The methodology follows an Agile development approach,

allowing for iterative improvements and adaptability based on
feedback. Data preprocessing steps such as imputation, scaling,
and data splitting enhance the accuracy and reliability of the
models. The system architecture is designed for scalability and
efficient data flow, ensuring real-time predictions and Figure 1: AI-driven chronic disease prediction
recommendations. Among the algorithms tested, Logistic interface.
Regression demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy for
diabetes detection, achieving an accuracy score of 79%,
surpassing other models evaluated. data-driven insights, ML models can assist in predicting the
likelihood of chronic disease development, allowing for
Keywords—Chronic Disease Prediction, Machine Learning, timely intervention and personalized treatment. This
Diabetes Detection, Obesity Prediction, Logistic Regression,
Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree, capability is particularly crucial for diseases like diabetes
Naïve Bayes, Agile Methodology, Data Preprocessing, and obesity, which often progress silently but have
Personalized Medicine, Predictive Analytics, Healthcare signi cant long-term health implications if left untreated.
Technology, Early Diagnosis, Medical Prescription, Clinical
Decision Support, Health Risk Assessment.
The signi cance of early detection cannot be overstated.
I. INTRODUCTION Timely diagnosis not only improves patient outcomes but
Chronic diseases, such as diabetes and obesity, are among also reduces the nancial burden on healthcare systems by
the leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. minimizing the need for costly interventions and
These conditions require long-term management and pose hospitalizations. Furthermore, personalized medicine—
signi cant challenges to healthcare systems, especially in tailoring treatments to the individual based on predictive
resource-constrained settings. The COVID-19 pandemic has insights—has the potential to enhance therapeutic ef cacy
further complicated the diagnosis and treatment of chronic and patient adherence.
diseases, with many patients experiencing delayed or
atypical symptom presentations. This has underscored the This research aims to develop a machine learning-based
urgent need for innovative solutions that enable early system that predicts the presence of chronic diseases and
detection and effective management, so that a person can prescribes appropriate medications based on patient data. By
live their life with good health and free from any disease. focusing on diabetes and obesity, two conditions that have
proven particularly challenging in the post-pandemic
Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a transformative context, this study seeks to address critical gaps in current
tool in healthcare, offering the potential to analyze vast diagnostic approaches. Speci cally, the research explores
amounts of patient data and uncover patterns that may not which machine learning algorithms yield the highest
be immediately apparent to human clinicians. By leveraging predictive accuracy and how these models can be integrated
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into a scalable, user-friendly system for healthcare of chronic diseases, improve patient outcomes, and alleviate
practitioners. the burden on healthcare systems.

In summary, this study not only advances the technological

In the following sections, this paper will detail the capabilities of chronic disease prediction but also enhances
methodology, datasets, and algorithms employed, as well as the overall patient care process by integrating diagnosis with
the results and implications of the ndings. Through this personalized treatment recommendations.
work, we aim to contribute to the growing body of
knowledge on predictive analytics in healthcare and III. LITERATURE REVIEW
demonstrate the potential of machine learning to Chronic diseases, including diabetes and obesity, are
revolutionize chronic disease management. significant contributors to the global disease burden. With
advancements in machine learning (ML), new opportunities
II. CONTRIBUTION OF THIS STUDY have arisen to enhance early detection and management of
these conditions. This section examines existing research on
This study aims to make several significant contributions to ML-based chronic disease prediction, identifies challenges,
the field of chronic disease management and machine and highlights areas for improvement.
learning:
1. Chronic Disease Prediction Techniques
1. Development of an Integrated Prediction and
Prescription System
Several ML techniques have been utilized for chronic
disease prediction. Table 1 summarizes key studies in this
The study goes beyond disease prediction by integrating a area:
prescription module, offering tailored medication
recommendations based on patient data. This dual Table 1: Summary of Machine Learning Techniques in
functionality bridges the gap between diagnosis and Chronic Disease Prediction
treatment, enhancing clinical decision-making.
Dataset Accuracy
Study Techniques Used Key Findings
Source (%)
2. Focus on Post-COVID-19 Challenges
Logistic Regression,
Performance Multiple
Patil et al. ANN, SVM, 70-85
varies by dataset datasets
Recognizing the unique challenges posed by post- Decision Tree

COVID-19 symptoms, the study focuses on diseases like Attribute

reduction
diabetes and obesity, which often present atypically. This Dulhare & Naive Bayes with improved UCI
86
contribution addresses a critical gap in current diagnostic Ayesha OneR detection Repository
accuracy by
models that struggle with symptom variability. 12.5%
Fuzzy c-means
UCI Machine
3. Evaluation of Multiple Machine Learning Algorithms Gopika & Fuzzy c-means , k- outperformed
Learning 87
Vanitha means , k-medoids others with 87%
Repository
accuracy
The research systematically evaluates several machine SVM achieved
SVM, Decision Chronic
learning algorithms, including Logistic Regression, Random Charleonna
Tree , KNN ,
the highest
disease dataset 88
n et al. sensitivity and
Forest, Decision Trees, Naïve Bayes, and K-Nearest Logistic Regression
accuracy.
(UCI)
Neighbors (KNN), to identify the most effective model for
predicting chronic diseases. This comparative analysis
provides valuable insights into algorithm performance 2. Post-COVID-19 Considerations in Diagnosis
across different datasets.
Post-COVID-19 symptoms often deviate from pre-pandemic
4. Real-Time and Scalable Solution
patterns, creating challenges for traditional diagnostic
models. Figure 1 presents a owchart illustrating the
The study proposes a scalable, real-time system architecture
that can be deployed in clinical settings. By leveraging complexities of post-COVID chronic disease diagnosis.
Agile methodology for iterative development, the system
ensures adaptability and responsiveness to user needs, Figure 2: Flowchart for Post-COVID Chronic Disease
making it practical for widespread adoption. Diagnosis

5. Contribution to Personalized Medicine [Patient Reports Symptoms]

↓
By incorporating patient-specific data and predictive [Data Collection: Symptoms, Medical History,
analytics, the system contributes to the growing field of
personalized medicine, enabling healthcare providers to Lab Tests]
deliver more targeted and effective treatments. ↓
[Machine Learning Model]
6. Improved Healthcare Outcomes
↓
Through early detection and accurate treatment [Predicted Diagnosis]
recommendations, the study aims to reduce the progression ↓
[Customized Treatment Recommendation]
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 comparison of the datasets used for diabetes and obesity
prediction in this study:
3. Algorithm Comparisons for Disease Prediction
Table 3: Dataset Features
Different algorithms exhibit varied performance based on
the nature of the dataset and problem. Table 2 compares the
algorithms tested in chronic disease prediction:
Dat
Table 2: Comparative Analysis of ML Algorithms Disease Key Features aset Source
Size
Algorith Weaknes Suitable Use
Strengths
m ses Cases
Pima
Diabete Glucose, BMI, Age,
Limited to 768 Indians
Logistic Simple, Small, s Skin Thickness
linear Dataset
Regressio interpretab structured
relationshi
n le datasets Gender, Height, Weight, WHO
ps Obesity 2111
Family History Dataset
Easy to
Decision Prone to Rule-based
understan Gaps in Existing Research:
Tree overfitting classification
d, intuitive
1. Post-COVID Symptom Variability: Few models
High
Computat Large, account for the atypical symptoms of chronic diseases in
Random accuracy,
ionally complex post-COVID patients.
Forest mitigates
expensive datasets
overfitting 2. Integration with Treatment: Most systems lack a
Fast, mechanism to translate predictions into actionable
Assumes treatments.
effective Text
Naïve feature
for classification,
Bayes independe 3. Scalability: Real-time, scalable solutions for clinical
independe small data
nce settings are underdeveloped.
nt features
High IV. IMPLEMENTATION
Effective computati
Simple, small
KNN in small onal cost Introduction to Implementation
data
datasets for large
datasets The implementation of this research focuses on designing
and deploying a machine learning (ML)-based system for
chronic disease prediction and personalized medication
4. Integration of Prediction and Prescription recommendations. The goal is to integrate predictive
analytics with clinical decision-making to improve
Existing research primarily focuses on disease prediction diagnostic accuracy and enable timely intervention for
without addressing how predictions translate into actionable diseases such as diabetes and obesity.
medical prescriptions. The proposed system bridges this gap
Implementation Strategy
by integrating a predictive model with a prescription
recommendation system.
Algorithm Used
5. Real-Time and Scalable Implementation
The following steps outline the algorithm used for diabetes
and obesity prediction:
Most current studies use static datasets, limiting real-world
application. The proposed system focuses on scalability and 1. Input: Collect patient data, including relevant features
real-time implementation, enabling healthcare providers to such as glucose levels, BMI, age, and family history.
make informed decisions instantly.
2. Preprocessing: Handle missing values using mean
imputation.Scale data to normalize feature values.Split the
6. Dataset Quality and Feature Engineering dataset into training (70%) and testing (30%) sets.

The effectiveness of ML models depends signi cantly on 3. Training the Models: Train multiple ML models
the quality and characteristics of datasets. Below is a (Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, Naïve
Bayes, KNN) on the training data.
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4. Evaluation: Compare models using performance metrics Development Environment:
such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. Jupyter Notebook or any Python IDE (e.g., PyCharm,
5. Model Selection: Choose the model with the highest VS Code).
performance (e.g., Logistic Regression for diabetes Anaconda for managing dependencies.
prediction). Deployment Platform: Flask or Django for creating a web
interface for real-time predictions.
6. Prediction: Use the selected model to classify new
patient data as "disease present" or "disease absent.” Expected Outcome
7. Prescription: Generate personalized medication
recommendations based on the predicted disease. The primary expected outcomes of this implementation
include:
8. Output: Provide the diagnosis and prescription to the
user. Performance Metrics

Flowchart of the Implementation Process Accuracy: Percentage of correctly classified instances.

• Logistic Regression: 79% (Diabetes Prediction).
The flowchart below illustrates the end-to-end • Other Models: Range from 71% to 75%.
implementation strategy: Precision: The ratio of true positive predictions to total
positive predictions.
[Start] Recall: The ratio of true positive predictions to all actual
↓ positives.
[Data Collection] F1-Score: Harmonic mean of precision and recall,
↓ indicating model balance.
[Data Preprocessing: Cleaning, Scaling, Feature Selection]
↓
[Model Training and Validation] Detailed Expected Results:
↓
[Evaluation of Algorithms (Logistic Regression, Random 1. Disease Prediction:
Forest, etc.)] 1.1 High accuracy in identifying diabetic and obese
↓ patients.
[Algorithm Selection Based on Performance Metrics] 1.2 Real-time classification with minimal latency.
↓ 2. Prescription Recommendations:
[Deployment: Prediction and Prescription System] ↓ 2.1 Accurate and personalized medication suggestions
[Real-Time Predictions and Recommendations] based on the diagnosis.
↓ 3. System Scalability:
[End] 3.1 Capability to process real-time data for multiple
patients simultaneously.
Tools/Hardware/Software Requirements 4. Performance Comparison of Algorithms

Hardware Requirements Table 4: Model Performance Comparison for Diabetes

Prediction
1. Processor: Intel Core i5 or equivalent.
2. RAM: 8 GB or higher for efficient computation. Accura Precisi Recall F1-Score
3. Storage: Minimum 256 GB SSD for fast read/write Algorithm
cy (%) on (%) (%) (%)
operations.
4. GPU (optional): For training on large datasets (NVIDIA Logistic
79 82 75 78
GTX 1050 or higher). Regression

Software Requirements Random

75 78 71 74
Forest
Programming Language: Python (primary language for
model development).
Decision
Libraries and Frameworks:
73 75 70 72
Tree
1. NumPy: For numerical computations.
2. Pandas: For data manipulation and preprocessing.
3. Scikit-learn: For implementing ML algorithms.
Naïve
71 74 68 71
4. Matplotlib/Seaborn: For data visualization. Bayes
5. SciPy: For scientific computations.
KNN 72 76 69 72
Conclusion: 3. System Scalability and Real-Time Performance

This implementation strategy ensures a systematic approach The system was designed for real-time use, and tests
to building and deploying an ML-based chronic disease demonstrated its ability to handle concurrent inputs
prediction system. By integrating robust algorithms with efficiently, with minimal latency. This scalability is crucial
real-time capabilities and personalized treatment for deployment in clinical settings where multiple patients
recommendations, this study aims to revolutionize may need simultaneous evaluations.
healthcare delivery and improve patient outcomes.
Discussion
V. RESULT & DISCUSSION
The results indicate the strong potential of ML in addressing
Results challenges in chronic disease management. However,
several aspects merit further discussion:
The results of this study demonstrate the effectiveness of
machine learning (ML) in predicting chronic diseases and 1. Algorithm Selection and Performance
providing tailored treatment recommendations. The
implemented system was tested on datasets for diabetes and
Logistic Regression emerged as the most effective algorithm
obesity prediction. The following key findings were
for diabetes prediction, primarily due to its ability to handle
observed:
linear relationships in the dataset. However, its performance
may be limited in cases with non-linear relationships. The
1. Model Performance use of Random Forest for obesity prediction highlights the
importance of ensemble methods in capturing complex
The evaluation of different ML models highlighted Logistic patterns.
Regression as the most effective algorithm for diabetes
prediction, achieving the highest accuracy and balanced 2. Data Quality and Feature Engineering
performance across all metrics. Table 1 provides a detailed
comparison of the models' performance.
The quality of the datasets played a significant role in
determining the model's performance. Missing data was
Table 5: Model Performance for Diabetes Prediction addressed using mean imputation, and scaling ensured
uniformity. Feature selection, while effective, could be
Accura Precisi Recall F1-Score further optimized using advanced techniques such as
Algorithm Principal Component Analysis (PCA) or feature importance
cy (%) on (%) (%) (%)
ranking.
Logistic
79 82 75 78 3. Post-COVID-19 Implications
Regression

Random The system's ability to adapt to post-COVID-19 symptom

75 78 71 74 variability remains a key strength. By incorporating datasets
Forest that reflect altered symptomatology, the models can provide
accurate predictions even under atypical conditions.
However, further research is needed to validate these
Decision findings across diverse patient populations.
73 75 70 72
Tree
4. Integration of Prediction and Prescription
Naïve
71 74 68 71 A major innovation of this study is the integration of a
Bayes
prescription module with the prediction system. By
KNN 72 76 69 72 automating the recommendation process, the system reduces
the burden on healthcare providers and ensures timely
interventions. Future iterations could incorporate more
For obesity prediction, Random Forest outperformed other advanced natural language processing (NLP) techniques to
algorithms, indicating the importance of using ensemble enhance the prescription module's interpretability and
methods when working with datasets that have highly flexibility.
correlated features.

2. Prediction and Prescription Accuracy

5. Limitations and Future Scope
• For diabetes, the system correctly identi ed whether a
patient was diabetic or non-diabetic in 79% of test cases. • Dataset Diversity: The datasets used were sourced from
public repositories, which may not fully represent diverse
• The prescription module provided medication
populations. Expanding the dataset to include data from
recommendations based on standard clinical guidelines, different demographics would improve generalizability.
ensuring relevance and accuracy for the predicted disease. • Model Interpretability: While Logistic Regression is
interpretable, other models such as Random Forest and
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 Naïve Bayes could benefit from explainability tools like 2. Enhanced Dataset Diversity
SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations).
• Additional Diseases: The study currently focuses on The datasets used in this study were sourced from publicly
diabetes and obesity. Future work should extend the available repositories. Expanding the dataset to include
approach to include other chronic conditions like diverse populations, age groups, and post-COVID-19
cardiovascular diseases and hypertension. patients will enhance the model's generalizability and
robustness.
Conclusion
3. Integration with Wearable Devices
The results of this study underscore the effectiveness of
machine learning in chronic disease prediction and Incorporating real-time data from wearable health
treatment recommendation. By addressing gaps in current monitoring devices (e.g., glucose monitors, fitness trackers)
healthcare systems, such as post-COVID-19 symptom can improve prediction accuracy and provide continuous
variability and the lack of integrated prescription systems, health insights.
this research offers a scalable and ef cient solution for
4. Explainability and Trust in AI Models
improving patient care. Further re nements, including
enhanced datasets and expanded disease coverage, will
strengthen the system's applicability and impact. Improving model interpretability through tools like SHAP
(SHapley Additive exPlanations) or LIME (Local
Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) will enhance
VI. CONCLUSION & FUTURE SCOPE
user trust and make the system more transparent to
healthcare practitioners and patients.
Conclusion
5. Multi-Lingual and Regional Support
This research highlights the transformative potential of
machine learning (ML) in chronic disease prediction and To enable wider adoption, the system could be localized to
personalized treatment recommendation. By leveraging support multiple languages and regional healthcare
robust algorithms and carefully curated datasets, the practices, making it accessible to diverse populations.
proposed system demonstrates its ability to address
challenges in diagnosing and managing diabetes and
6. Advanced Prescription Module
obesity, especially in the post-COVID-19 context.

The study identifies Logistic Regression as the most Incorporating Natural Language Processing (NLP) into the
effective algorithm for diabetes prediction, achieving an prescription module can improve its flexibility, enabling
accuracy of 79%, while Random Forest performs best for more detailed and context-specific treatment
obesity prediction. The integration of a prescription module recommendations tailored to the patient's history and
with the predictive model bridges the gap between diagnosis condition.
and treatment, enabling personalized and timely medical
interventions. 7. Deployment and Validation in Clinical Settings

Furthermore, the system's scalability and real-time The system's real-world performance should be validated
processing capabilities make it a valuable tool for clinical through pilot studies in hospitals and healthcare centers.
settings, providing healthcare practitioners with actionable This will provide valuable insights into usability, scalability,
insights and reducing the burden on overstrained systems. and accuracy in dynamic clinical environments.
The results underscore the importance of ML-driven
solutions in enhancing diagnostic accuracy, promoting early 8. Integration with EHR Systems
intervention, and improving patient outcomes.

Integrating the system with Electronic Health Records

Future Scope (EHR) can facilitate seamless data sharing, enabling a more
holistic analysis of patient health and improving prediction
accuracy.
While the research demonstrates promising results, there are
several areas for future exploration and improvement:
Closing Statement
1. Expansion of Disease Coverage
This research lays the groundwork for a scalable, efficient,
The current study focuses on diabetes and obesity. Future and innovative approach to chronic disease management. By
iterations could incorporate additional chronic conditions, addressing current limitations and exploring future
such as cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, and kidney advancements, the proposed system has the potential to
disorders, to make the system more comprehensive. significantly transform healthcare delivery, empowering
practitioners and improving the quality of life for patients
worldwide.
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