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© 2018 IJSRST | Volume 5 | Issue 1 | Print ISSN: 2395-6011 | Online ISSN: 2395-602X

Flood Frequency Analysis of the Par River : Western India

Pramodkumar S. Hire1, Archana D. Patil*2
Department of Geography, HPT Arts and RYK Science College, Nashik, Maharashtra, India
1

*2Department of Geography, RNC Arts, JDB Commerce and NSC Science College, Nashik, Maharashtra, India

ABSTRACT

An evaluation of the effectiveness of flows depends on the magnitude and frequency of the events than mean discharges.
Magnitude-frequency analysis is one method that identifies the hydrological and geomorphological importance of these events
quantitatively, particularly the frequency of flood events of various magnitudes. Therefore, an attempt has been made to understand
the magnitude and frequency characteristics of floods on the Par River on the basis of available annual peak discharges and field
data. The Annual Maximum Series (AMS) data were available for the Nanivahial site on the Par River for 49 years. To estimate
discharges of a given return period, frequency distribution is compiled from a data series of extreme events. By using Gumbel
Extreme Value type I (GEVI) probability distribution, peak flows have been estimated for different return periods. The distribution
has also been employed to estimate the recurrence interval of mean annual peak discharge, large flood and actually observed
maximum annual peak discharge. The magnitude-frequency analysis based on GEVI distribution reveals that the mean annual peak
flood has a recurrence interval of 2.33 years, large flood has 6.93 years and maximum peak discharge has 185 years. Two general
conclusions emerge from the analyses. First, the river displays extraordinary hydrologic characteristics of a flood-dominated river.
Second, large floods are relatively frequent. This fact suggests that large-magnitude events have an important role to play in the
bedrock channel morphology of the Par River.

Keywords: Annual Maximum Series, return period, Gumbel Extreme Value type I, recurrence interval.

regime [6]. In semi-arid tropics the channel

I. INTRODUCTION morphologic properties are not directed by a
particular discharge but by a series of discharges
According to Leopold et al. [1] and taking place at different intervals [7]. Similar
Schumm [2] the channel form and the processes of conclusion has been proposed by Gupta [8]. He
erosion and transportation in a river are closely suggested that in seasonal tropics the rivers are not
associated with the river regimes specifically to the only controlled by the seasonality of discharge but
flows which they transmit. The regional hydro- also high-magnitude floods. Hire [4] opines for the
climatic regime conditions strongly control the river Tapi River that the low- or moderate-magnitude
regime [3]. Numerous case studies in the last six flows transport most of the fine-grained sediment
decades have showed that the geomorphic effects of (clay, silt and sand) and modify the channel
a discharge of a given magnitude and frequency bedforms to some extent. However, the channel size
differ from one regime to another [4] For instance, and shape is maintained by large-magnitude floods
Wolman and Miller [5] revealed that the frequently that occur at long intervals. Considerable attention
occurring low and moderate flows largely determine has been given to morphology of bedrock channels
the transfer of sediments and the channel size under and dynamics and to fluvial erosional processes in
humid temperate regime. On the contrary, recent years [9]. These studies, therefore, point out
infrequent large magnitude floods maintain and that a systematic understanding of the main features
control the channel size of rivers in arid tropical of the fluvial and flood regime of a river is essential

IJSRST185133 | Published : 20 January 2018 | January-February-2018 [ (5) 1 : 164-168 ] 164

 International Conference on Frontiers in Life and Earth Science
© 2018 IJSRST | Volume 5 | Issue 1 | Print ISSN: 2395-6011 | Online ISSN: 2395-602X

for the estimation of the pattern of geomorphic The river flows to the west through
work. In the present study, hence, an attempt has Maharashtra (46.45% area) and Gujarat (53.55%
been made to inspect the magnitude frequency area) States and drains into the Arabian Sea near
analysis of the AMS data. Umarsadi in the Gujarat State. The length of the
river is 142 km. The Nar River, with the length of
II. GEOMORPHIC, GEOLOGIC AND 87 km, is the major tributary of the Par River and
CLIMATIC SETTINGS OF THE PAR RIVER joins from the north. Other major tributaries of the
Par River are the Manmora, the Keng, the Vajri, and
The Par River from western India has been the Bhimtas. The Par Basin extends over an area of
selected for study of flood frequency analysis (Fig. 1664 km2. The entire basin is underlain by
1). It has its source near Harantekadi at an elevation horizontally bedded Cretaceous-Eocene Deccan
of 982 m ASL. Physiographically, upper Par River Trap basalts. The river has single, sinuous, and
and its tributaries flow on the Jawhar Plateau well-defined channel, incised into bedrock. The
whereas at lower reaches river flows on the Kokan channel floor is either of bedrock or covered by
Plains. The Par Basin is bordered by, roughly east- pebbly/cobbly material or boulders. The Par River
west trending, Surgana and Peth Ranges to north and its tributaries are south-west summer monsoon
and south respectively and by Western Ghats to the fed (June to September). The average annual
East. The altitude of Surgana and Peth Hills ranges rainfall of the basin is 2076 mm and 93% of the
from 450 to 750 m ASL. The Western Ghats (>900 annual rainfall occurs during south-west monsoon
m ASL) is higher in altitude than Surgana and Peth season. The basin occasionally receives heavy rains
ranges. The basin relief, i.e. Kem Hill (1177 m), is due to cyclonic storms and depressions originating
located as offshoot of Western Ghats. over the Bay of Bengal or adjoining land and the
Arabian Sea.

Fig. 1 Geomorphic setting of the Par River

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III. METHODOLOGY A. Gumbel Extreme Value Type I (GEVI)

Distribution
The Par River, similar to other monsoonal
rivers, also subjected to high-magnitude floods at Assuming the GEVI distribution for the
regular intervals. Thus, it is of paramount AMS data of the selected site, an estimate of flows
significant to know the hydrologic characteristics of for a desired recurrence interval were obtained by
floods in terms of magnitude, frequency and using the following equation [11].
distribution. Therefore, flood frequency analysis has
been carried out for the Par River. FFA necessitates QT = Qm + [K(T) * σ Q] .....Eq. 1
a good quality, long and continuous records.
Typically the AMS data have been more frequently
used for the analysis. In case of the study area, the where, QT = discharge of required return
AMS data of flood stage and magnitude are period, Qm = mean annual peak discharge, Q =
available for Nanivahial site (Fig. 1) on the Par standard deviation of AMS, and K(T) = frequency
River for the last 49 years (since 1961). This data factor and is the function of the return period T.
have been used for magnitude-frequency analysis. K(T) values were obtained from tables provided in
In order to estimate discharges of a given return the standards books on Applied Hydrology.
period, a frequency distribution is compiled from a
data series of extreme events. By using Gumbel The recurrence intervals (T) of given
extreme value type I (GEVI) probability discharges (X), such as mean annual peak discharge
distribution, peak flows have been estimated for (Qm), large flood (Qlf) and peak on record (Qmax),
different return periods such as 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and have been estimated by applying the following
100 years. The distribution has also been employed equation [11].
to estimate the recurrence interval of mean annual
peak discharge (Qm), large flood (Qlf) and actually 1
= 1 − F(X) = 1 − exp[ −e −b(X−a) ] .....Eq. 2
observed maximum annual peak discharge (Qmax). T
A visual inspection of the fit of the frequency
distribution is possibly the best way in determining where, T = recurrence interval for a given
how fine an individual distribution fits the AMS discharge, F(X) = probability of an annual
dataset or which distribution fits “best” [10]. maximum Q  X, and a and b are two parameters
Therefore, flood frequency of the Nanivahial site is related to the moments of population of Q values.
represented graphically (Fig. 2) which fairly The parameters a and b were determined by the
represents the Par Basin. following equations.


a = Qm − ( = 0.5772) ......Eq. 3
b

π
b= ......Eq. 4
σQ 6

where, Qm = mean annual peak discharge,

and Q = standard deviation of annual peak
discharge. The return periods of required discharges
have been calculated by applying Equation 3.

In the GEVI analysis, the observed annual

peak discharges have been plotted against the return
period or F(X) values (plotting positions) on the
Fig. 2 Annual Maximum Series, GEVI distribution, Nanivahial, Par
River

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Gumbel graph paper, designed for GEVI

Table 2 Return period of Qm, Qlf and Qmax for Nanivahial site on
probability distribution. Several formulae have been the Par River (Based on GEVI)
used to calculate plotting positions, however, of the Record length Q m3/s Return period (yr)
several formulae in use, the best is due to Qm = 5030 2.33
Gringorten since the outliers fall into line better 49 Qlf = 10220 6.93
Qmax = 23820 185.47
than other plotting positions [11]. The F(X) values Qm = mean annual peak discharge; Qlf = large flood; Qmax =
have been calculated as follows; maximum annual peak discharge; GEVI = Gumbel Extreme Value
Type I; See Fig. 1 for location of site

r − 0.44
P(X) = 1 - F(X) = .....Eq. 5 In the GEVI analysis, the observed annual
N + 0.12
peak discharges have been plotted against the return
period or F(X) values (plotting positions) on the
where, r = flood magnitude rank and N = Gumbel graph paper, designed for GEVI probability
the number of years of records. distribution. The plotted graph is shown in Fig. 2
which show that, the fitted lines are fairly close to
A line can be drawn by eye to fit the scatter, the most of the data points and, therefore, can be
especially using the Gringorten plotting positions. reliably and conveniently used to read the
However, it is sensible to draw the line recurrence intervals for a given magnitude and vice
mathematically. Additionally, since most of the versa. Interestingly, in plot of GEVI distribution,
AMS data are available for short period of time, it is the actually observed peak on record (Qmax) falls
essential to construct confidence limits about the well close to the fitted lines. This means the return
fitted line relationship between the AMS and the period of Qmax of Nanivahial station predicted by
linearized probability variable [11]. Shaw [11] has GEVI distribution are likely to be quite reliable.
given procedure to fit the line mathematically and to
Two general conclusions emerge from the
construct the confidence limits. The same procedure
has been followed in this study. analyses. First, the river displays extraordinary
hydrologic characteristics of a flood-dominated
river. Second, large floods are relatively frequent.
IV. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
This fact suggests that large-magnitude events have
By using GEVI probability distributions, an important role to play in the bedrock channel
peak flows have been estimated for different return morphology of the Par River.
periods such as 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. The
estimated discharges are given in Table 1. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Table 1 Estimated discharges in m3/s for different return periods for The authors are grateful to Board of College and
Nanivahial site on the Par River (Based on GEVI University Development, Savitribai Phule Pune
distribution)
Record Return period (years) University, Pune for financial support to conduct
length 2 5 10 25 50 100 this research work (Project Number: 14SCI000138
49 4200 8767 11777 15618 18576 21327 sanctioned on March, 11, 2015). The authors are
See Fig. 1 for location of site also thankful to Professor Vishwas S. Kale for his
helpful and constructive comments and suggestions.
Authors are grateful to Dr. Rajendra Gunjal, Ms.
The distribution has also been employed to
Snehal Kasar and Mr. Uttam Pawar for their support
estimate the recurrence interval of mean annual
in the field.
peak discharge (Qm), large flood (Qlf) and actually
observed maximum annual peak discharge (Qmax)
(Table 2).

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