Statistical Methods in Medical Research

Visit the link below to download the full version of this book:

https://medidownload.com/product/statistical-methods-in-medical-research/

Click Download Now

Charan Singh Rayat
Department of Histopathology
Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education & Research
Chandigarh, India

ISBN 978-981-13-0826-0 ISBN 978-981-13-0827-7 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0827-7

Library of Congress Control Number: 2018954730

# Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the
material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,
broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information
storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or
the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any
errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional
claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721,
Singapore
Foreword

It gives me great pleasure in writing the foreword to Statistical Methods in Medical

Research by Dr. CS Rayat, who has more than 32 years’ experience in applications
of statistical methods in Biomedical Research. Dr. Rayat has more than 13 years
postdoctoral research and teaching experience with great instinct for quantitative
diagnostic pathology and has been on the editorial boards of reputed international
medical journals.
The main aim of his book is to create interest of medical researchers and
postgraduate students in the wonderful applications of statistical methods for
analyzing the research findings as well as routine determinations of biochemical
investigations for finding significance of outcome of research and “statistical quality
control” of routine “medical laboratories” for accreditation and competence.
The book would be of great use for medical professionals, researchers, and
students of biomedical sciences and other disciplines too. I wish Dr. Rayat great
success in his endeavor and feel really happy for the release of the first edition of
the book.

Department of Cytology, Pranab Dey MD. FRC Path.

PGIMER
Chandigarh, India
March 2018

v
Preface

Null hypothesis (Ho) is the cardinal principle of equality in groups of objects or

subjects under study. It is the foundation of Statistical Science. The extent of
rejection of null hypothesis through statistical analysis validates our research or
inference about group of subjects, objects, or standard operating procedures (SOPs)
under study.
Statistical analysis plays a vital role in material science, business analysis, sports,
management, and biomedical research. A variety of books are available on statistical
analysis for students of mathematics, commerce, and management, but not a single
book is available for biomedical researchers and basic medical scientists who have
not studied mathematics at undergraduate level. I express my gratitude to Dr. Pranab
Dey, Professor, Department of Cytology, PGIMER, Chandigarh, for encouraging
me to write this book for biomedical researchers and basic medical scientists.
This book has been written with a focus on the requirements of students of
various specialties of medical science, basic medical scientists, and health workers.
Problems with solutions have been illustrated under various chapters for compre-
hensive understanding of the statistical methods and their applications. I am of the
definite view that this book would meet the requirements of students of medicine and
basic medical sciences. I adore the pioneers in the subject whose theories and
methods have been cited in this book and dedicate the book to the galaxy of pioneers.
I would like to convey my thanks to my son Er. Harpreet Singh Rayat, a software
engineer, and daughter Ms. Amandeep Kaur, M.Com., ICWA, for their support and
critical comments on the manuscript. Microsoft Office 365 ProPlus, Version 1708,
licensed to my son, has been used as source of Microsoft Excel for generating
probability tables and data handling. I am very thankful to Ms. Jagjeet Kaur Saini
and Dr. Naren Aggarwal of Springer India Pvt. Ltd, for taking interest in my
manuscript and putting in sincere efforts for publishing this book.

vii
viii Preface

I hope that this book would be liked by teachers and researchers in the field of
Medicine and Basic Medical Sciences, and would lessen their dependency on others
for statistical analysis. Any suggestions for improving this book would be highly
acknowledged and appreciated.

Chandigarh C.S. Rayat

India
March 2018
Contents

1 Introduction to Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Definitions of Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Origin and Development of Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.3 Concept of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.4 Definition of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.5 Types of Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.6 Different Theories of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.6.1 Classical or Priori Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.6.2 Relative Theory of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.6.3 Subjective Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.6.4 Axiomatic Theory of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.7 Uses of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.8 Theorems of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2 Collecting Statistical Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.1 Methods of Collection of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.1.1 Procedure for Collection of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.1.2 Planning the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.1.3 Devising the Questions and Making the Schedule . . . 14
2.1.4 Population and Samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.1.5 Using Schedules to Obtain the Information . . . . . . . . 15
2.1.6 Editing the Schedules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.1.7 Organizing the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.1.8 Presentation and Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
3 Tabulated Presentation of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.1 Examples Depicting Tabulated Presentation of Data . . . . . . . . 17
4 Diagrammatic Presentation of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4.1 Usefulness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4.2 Limitations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4.3 Characteristics of Diagrams and Rules for Drawing These . . . . 21
4.4 Different Types of Diagrams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

ix
x Contents

5 Graphic Presentation of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

5.1 Construction of Graph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
5.2 Choice of Scale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
5.3 Plotting of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
5.4 Graphs of Time Series or Historigrams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
5.5 Comparison of Time Series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
5.6 Semilogarithmic Scale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
5.7 Interpretations of Semilog Curves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
5.8 Properties of a Logarithmic Scale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
5.9 Normal Frequency Curve: Properties of Normal
Frequency Curve Are Given Below . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
5.10 Moderately Asymmetrical Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
5.11 Extremely Asymmetrical Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
6 Measures of Central Tendency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
6.1 Properties of Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
6.2 Characteristics of “Representative Average” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
6.3 Types of Averages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
6.4 Arithmetic Mean (
x) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
6.5 Arithmetic Mean (
x) of Ungrouped Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
6.6 Arithmetic Mean (
x) of Grouped Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
6.7 Shortcut Method for Calculating “Mean” (
x) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
6.8 Merits and Drawbacks of Mean (
x): As Listed in Table 6.4 . . . 37
6.9 Geometric Mean (G)
............................... 37
6.10 Usefulness of Geometric Mean (G)
..................... 37
6.11 Merits and Drawbacks of Geometric Mean (G):
As Listed in
Table 6.7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
6.12 Weighted Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
6.13 Crude Death Rate (CDR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
6.14 Standardized Death Rate (SDR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
6.15 Median (~x ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
6.16 Usefulness of Median (~x ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
6.17 The Computation of Median (~x ) of Unclassified Data . . . . . . . 41
6.18 The Computation of Median (~x ) of Classified Data . . . . . . . . . 42
6.19 Merits and Drawbacks of Median (~x ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
6.20 Mode (bx) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
6.21 Calculating Mode (b x ) in Ungrouped Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
6.22 Calculating Mode (b x ) in Grouped Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
6.23 Properties of Mode (b x) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6.24 Comparison of Mean (
x), Median (~x ), and Mode (b x) . . . . . . . . 44
6.25 When to Use Mean (
x), Median (~x ), and Mode (b x )? . . . . . . . . . 44
6.25.1 Use of Mean (
x) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6.25.2 Use of Median (~x ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6.25.3 Use of Mode (b x) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
6.26 Quartiles, Deciles, and Percentiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Contents xi

7 Measures of Dispersion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
7.1 Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
7.2 Various Measures of Dispersion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
7.2.1 Range . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
7.2.2 Quartile Deviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
7.2.3 Mean Deviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
7.2.4 Standard Deviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
7.3 Symbols Representing the Standard Deviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
7.4 Symbols Used in Statistical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
7.5 Formulae for Calculating Standard Deviation
from Ungrouped Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
7.6 Computation of Measures of Dispersion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
7.6.1 From Ungrouped Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
7.7 Formulae for Calculating Standard Deviation
from Grouped Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
7.8 Computing Standard Deviation from Classified Data . . . . . . . . 56
7.9 Shortcut Method for Computing “Standard Deviation”
from Classified Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
7.10 Merits and Demerits of Various Measures of Dispersion . . . . . 59
7.11 When to Use Various Measures of Dispersion? . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
8 Correlation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 61
8.1 Causation and Correlation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 61
8.2 One Variable Being a Cause of Another . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 61
8.2.1 Both Variables Being the Result
of a Common Cause . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
8.2.2 Chance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
8.3 Methods of Studying Correlation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
8.3.1 The Scatter Diagram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
8.3.2 Pearson Coefficient of Correlation
for Ungrouped Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 62
8.3.3 Regression Line . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 67
8.4 Proportions of “r” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 68
9 Chi-Square Test (χ 2 – Test) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
9.1 Degrees of Freedom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
9.2 Levels of Significance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
9.3 Applications of χ 2 – Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
9.3.1 Double Variable Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
9.3.2 Goodness of Fit Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
9.4 Coefficient of Contingency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
9.5 Yates’ Correction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
9.6 Application of Yates’ Correction to Multivariable Data . . . . . . 78
9.7 Inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
xii Contents

10 Normal Curve and Sampling Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

10.1 Normal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
10.2 Properties of Normal Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
10.3 Applications of Normal Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
10.4 Sampling Variations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
10.5 Effect of Sample Size on Standard Error . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
10.6 Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
11 Tests of Significance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
11.1 Statistical Decision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
11.2 Statistical Hypothesis (Null Hypothesis) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
11.3 Test of Hypothesis and Significance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
11.4 Type I and Type II Errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
11.5 Level of Significance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
11.6 Tests Involving Normal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
11.7 Rules of Statistical Decision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
11.8 One-Tailed or Two-Tailed Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
11.9 Student’s “t”-Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
11.10 Confidence Intervals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
11.11 Applications of Student’s t-Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
11.11.1 Comparison of Sample with Population . . . . . . . . . . 89
11.11.2 Comparison of Sample with Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
11.11.3 Comparison of Sample with Sample
by “t-Paired Test” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
12 Variance-Ratio Test and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) . . . . . . . . 95
12.1 Applications of the Variance-Ratio Test (F-Test) . . . . . . . . . . . 95
12.1.1 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
12.1.2 Shortcut Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
12.1.3 Coding Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
12.1.4 Coding Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
13 Nonparametric Statistical Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
13.1 Statistical Algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
13.2 Sign Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
13.3 Median Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
13.4 Rank Correlation Test (Spearman’s Rank Correlation Test) . . . 120
13.5 Rank-Sum Test (Mann-Whitney U-Test) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
13.6 Coefficient of Variation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
13.7 Parameters of Validity of a New Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
13.8 General Methodology for Validity of an Assay . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
14 Statistical Quality Control in Clinical Laboratories . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
14.1 Quality Perceptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
14.1.1 Normal Distribution Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
14.1.2 Errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Contents xiii

14.1.3 Check over Errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

14.1.4 Permitted Variations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
14.1.5 Accuracy and Precision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
14.2 Quality Control Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
14.2.1 Use of Quality Control Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
14.2.2 Control Charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
14.2.3 Advantages of Control Charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
14.2.4 The Mean Chart (
x Chart) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
14.2.5 The Cumulative Sum Chart (CUSUM Chart) . . . . . . 133
14.2.6 Participation in Interlaboratory
Comparison Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
14.2.7 Analysis of Quality Control Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
14.2.8 Decision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
15 Applications of Microsoft Excel in Statistical Methods . . . . . . . . . . 139
15.1 Excel Worksheet and Finding Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
15.2 Excel Worksheet Functions for Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
15.3 Designing Graphics with Microsoft Excel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
15.4 Excel Worksheet Functions for Calculating Probabilities . . . . . 145

Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
About the Author

Charan Singh Rayat completed his postgraduate studies and Ph.D. in Pathology at
the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education & Research (PGIMER),
Chandigarh, India. He is a Lecturer in histopathology at PGIMER and has hands
on experience in a variety of diagnostic and research studies in the field of immu-
nology and pathology, along with more than 17 years of experience in ultrastructural
pathology and morphometry. Dr. Rayat has published papers in numerous medical
journals and is a peer reviewer for international journals. The Department of
Immunopathology, PGIMER, Chandigarh, conferred awards on him in recognition
of his diagnostic work in the field of immunopathology and histopathology and his
contributions to patient care and clinical research. On his blogs, he also disseminates
his knowledge for the benefit of medical students and patients.

xv
Introduction to Statistics
1

1.1 Definitions of Statistics

1. Systematic evaluation and methodological numeric analysis of parametric data

collected on a subject or population are called statistics.
2. The conclusive study of statistical methods and principles employed to under-
stand the outcome of a research project is also termed as statistics.
3. Statistics means quantitative data analysis by statistical methods to elucidate the
validity and accuracy of a scientific procedure or study.
4. Statistics could be defined as quantitative data affected to a certain extent by
multiplicity of causes and evaluated through statistical methods.

1.2 Origin and Development of Statistics

Erstwhile kings used to collect information regarding population and wealth of their
people. Collected data was analyzed to plan development of the state and to finance
war. Statistics in those days was known as “science of kings.” Later the data of
diverse nature were obtained for general uses of the government. Students of game
of chances also developed certain methods of statistical analysis. Biology and
insurance as well as other natural sciences are bright fields for application of
statistical methods.

1.3 Concept of Probability

The concept of probability is used in day-to-day life which stands for the probability
of occurring or non-occurring of events. The notion of probability is used in social
sciences, statistics, economics, industry, business, and engineering. The probability

# Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018 1

C. S. Rayat, Statistical Methods in Medical Research,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0827-7_1
2 1 Introduction to Statistics

is an element of uncertainty about the happening of an event. The following

statements help in understanding the concept of probability:

1. There may be rain tomorrow.

2. Final examination may take place in the month of July.
3. The chance of winning a lottery is less than 1%.

The examples cited above are uncertain about the associated events. So, these
statements are just conjectures. The concept of probability was very first used by
Italian mathematician Eardan in his book entitled The Book on Games of Chance in
1963. The foundation of the “mathematical theory” of probability was laid by French
mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Afterwards the Swiss mathema-
tician James Bernoulli (1654–1705) contributed to the theory of probability; how-
ever, his concepts came to light after his death. Other pioneers associated with the
probability are de Moivre (1667–1754), Thomas Bayes (1702–1761), Markov
(1856–1922), and Kolmogorov.
The probability has a great role in our day-to-day life. Our personal life, social
life, academic life, and even business life are deeply associated with probability.
Managerial decisions in production and business are analyzed in the light of theories
of probability to calculate risks and uncertainties.

1.4 Definition of Probability

The word probability denotes the likelihood of occurring of an event. It is an

intelligent guess regarding happening of an event. The probability of occurring of
an event could range between “0” and “1.” If the event does not happen, the
probability would be “0” (zero). On the other hand, when the event happens, the
probability would become “1” (one). As per concept the event can happen in M ways
or cannot happen in N ways. So, the total possibilities of probabilities are M + N, and
the probability of happening can be calculated as
M Number of favorable cases
P¼ ¼
M þ N Total number of likely events

Definition of Events The observed results of identical experiments are called

events. An event may be elementary or composite. Events are denoted by capital
letters A, B, C, etc. Each event is classified into success ( p) or failure (q). Now, if
success is zero (0), failure will have the value as “one” (1) or the other way. As per
the rule of probability
1.5 Types of Events 3

pþq¼1
p¼1q
q¼1p

1.5 Types of Events

1. Mutually exclusive events: All events, happening independent of the other, are
called “mutually exclusive events.” As in the case of tossing a coin, the head and
tail cannot occur simultaneously. Only head or tail can occur. So, the occurrence
of one event would exclude the occurrence of the other.
2. Equally likely events: Events are said to be “equally likely” if all the cases have an
equal chance to occur. As we draw a playing card from a pack of cards, every card
out of 52 cards will have the equal chance of being getting drawn. Similarly when
a dice is thrown, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 equally has a likely chance to occur. So, such
events are called “equally likely events.”
3. Exhaustive events: When all the cases of random experiment are included in the
study, the events are called “exhaustive events.” Possible outcomes in a dice are
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, and any of these may appear on the top.
4. Simple and compound events: “Simple events” are based on the natural law and
without any calculations. An event may occur or may not occur. In “compound
events” joint possibility of two or more events is considered. For example, if we
have a bag containing five white, six red, and seven green balls, the possibility of
drawing two balls at a time may be both white, both red, and both green.
Possibility would also be of white and red, white and green, or red and green.
5. Independent and dependent events: The event is said to be independent if
happening of this is not under the happening of any other event. For example:
Drawing of a “King” from a pack of cards would always have a probability as 52 4
.
1
A single card seen and put in the packet again would have probability as 52.
If the happening of the second event depends on the happening of the first
event, we call it “dependent event.” For example, if we try to draw a “King” from
4
the pack of cards, its probability will be 52 . If we remove a card from the pack at
random and try to draw a “King” again, its probability will be 51 4
. In the second
case, if the drawn card was a “King” and we keep that aside and try to draw the
second “King,” then the probability of second King will be 51 3
.
6. Complementary events: Events are said to be “complementary events” if one
event complements the other event for the failure or success. For example, in a
throwing of “dice,” if condition is applied that winning player will win if the score
is odd number, it would mean that the player will win only if 1 or 3 or 5 comes at
the top during the toss of dice.
4 1 Introduction to Statistics

1.6 Different Theories of Probability

The concept of probability is based on certain laws which may be modified or

amended with passage of time. There are four theories which will help us understand
the concept and applications of probability. These theories are:

1. Classical or priori probability

2. Relative theory of probability
3. Subjective approach
4. Axiomatic theory of probability

1.6.1 Classical or Priori Probability

The “classical or priori probability” is the earliest approach, and the same was
developed by Laplace who also coined the definition of probability as “the ratio of
the favorable case to the number of equally likely cases.” If random experiment
(A) results in N exclusive and equally likely events, out of which m are the favorable
outcomes, then the probability (P) of occurring of favorable event is given by the
following formula:

m
PðAÞ ¼
N

Example 1 Suppose you throw a dice. The probability of occurring of number “1”
would be denoted as

No: of favorable cases 1

Pð1Þ ¼ ¼
Total No: of equally likely cases 6

So, classical probability has the following four properties:

(a) 0  m  N is divided by N; we will have 0 < Nm < 1, i.e., P(A)  1.

(b) If “A” is an impossible event, then m ¼ 0. So, PðAÞ ¼ N0 ¼ 0.
(c) If “A” is certain event, then m ¼ N. So, PðAÞ ¼ NN ¼ 1.
(d) If occurrence of “A” implies to the occurrence of “B” and occurrence of “B”
may or may not imply to the occurrence of “A,” then P(A)  P(B).