Volume 10, Issue 10, October – 2025 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology

ISSN No: -2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25oct1443

Financial Risk Modeling for Hybrid Renewable

Energy Portfolios Under Evolving U. S.
Regulatory and Tax Equity Structures
Mosunmola Omowunmi Ilesanmi1; Onum Friday Okoh2; Onuh Matthew Ijiga3
1
Portfolio Asset Manager, AES Corporation, Colorado, USA.
2
Department of Economics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.
3
Department of Physics, Joseph Sarwaan Tarkaa University, Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria.

Publication Date: 2025/11/03

Abstract: This study explores financial risk modeling for hybrid renewable energy portfolios in the context of evolving U.S.
regulatory and tax equity structures. As renewable integration intensifies, investors face mounting uncertainties stemming
from fluctuating policy incentives, dynamic market conditions, and variable generation outputs from solar, wind, and
battery storage assets. The paper examines how shifts in federal tax credits, state-level renewable standards, and
decarbonization mandates reshape the financial viability and capital structuring of hybrid portfolios. Findings indicate that
regulatory volatility significantly alters project cash flows, risk-return profiles, and the attractiveness of tax equity
partnerships, especially under changing Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Production Tax Credit (PTC) regimes. The study
further reveals that portfolios optimized for diversification between intermittent and dispatchable assets exhibit improved
financial resilience against market and policy shocks. Investors who integrate adaptive financial risk modeling and scenario-
based performance analytics demonstrate higher expected EBITDA stability and enhanced asset valuation. Overall, the
research underscores the importance of aligning financial strategies with evolving regulatory landscapes to safeguard long-
term investment performance. It recommends that policymakers maintain consistency in tax equity provisions to foster
investor confidence and accelerate the U.S. energy transition toward a low-carbon economy.

Keywords: Financial Risk Modeling, Hybrid Renewable Energy, Tax Equity, Regulatory Policy, Investment Resilience.

How to Cite: Mosunmola Omowunmi Ilesanmi; Onum Friday Okoh; Onuh Matthew Ijiga (2025). Financial Risk Modeling for
Hybrid Renewable Energy Portfolios Under Evolving U. S. Regulatory and Tax Equity Structures. International Journal of
Innovative Science and Research Technology,10(10), 2208-2225. https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25oct1443

I. INTRODUCTION additional strategic importance. According to Aljishi et al.

(2025), hybrid systems oriented toward applications such as
 Overview of Hybrid Renewable Energy Portfolios direct air capture illustrate how blended renewable assets can
Hybrid renewable energy portfolios represent a align with policy-driven incentives and emerging revenue
strategic assembly of multiple generation and storage streams for example via tax credits or carbon-capture
technologies such as solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and adjacencies thereby diversifying risk and increasing investor
battery systems into a unified asset mix that addresses appeal. By combining assets with differing tax-treatment
variability, enhances system reliability, and supports profiles and regulatory sensitivities, hybrid renewable
financial resilience. As highlighted by Dinçer et al. (2024), portfolios offer a structural hedge against policy shifts,
the synergy between solar and wind sources in hybrid enabling investors to maintain robust internal rates of return
configurations can significantly improve investment even under regulatory turbulence (Grace & Okoh, 2022).
efficiency by leveraging complementary generation profiles,
thereby reducing exposure to single-technology intermittency  Evolution of U.S. Regulatory and Tax Equity Frameworks
and non-synchronous output. In effect, a hybrid portfolio The regulatory and tax equity landscape in the United
transforms discrete renewable projects into integrated States has undergone substantial transformation with the
platforms that deliver more stable cash flows, improved enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its
capacity factors, and enhanced loss-of-load protection (Okoh accompanying implementation rules, ushering in technology-
et al., 2024). neutral investment tax credits that replace prior segmented
frameworks for solar, wind, and storage projects (Leonelli,
In the context of evolving U.S. regulatory and tax- 2024). Under the IRA, credits such as § 48E and § 45Y enable
equity structures, these multi-technology portfolios acquire broader facility eligibility covering net-zero emissions clean

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Volume 10, Issue 10, October – 2025 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No: -2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25oct1443

electricity assets rather than narrowly defined technologies safeguarding value amidst evolving regulatory, tax equity and
and introduce a phase-out trigger tied to emissions targets or revenue-profile uncertainties (Ononiwu et al., 2023).
specific dates. Leonelli (2024) emphasises that this shift
reflects a new industrial-policy orientation, one where trade-  Objective and Scope of the Study
distorting subsidy concerns merge with decarbonization The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the
objectives, thereby increasing regulatory complexity for tax- financial risk modeling mechanisms applicable to hybrid
equity structures. For developers of hybrid renewable renewable energy portfolios within the evolving U.S.
portfolios, this evolution means that tax-equity financing regulatory and tax equity environment. The research seeks to
must adapt to the interplay of subsidy eligibility, ownership identify how changes in policy frameworks, investment tax
rules, and evolved regulatory oversight (Okoh & Grace, credits, and market structures influence risk exposure, capital
2022). structuring, and return optimization in renewable energy
investments. It aims to provide a strategic understanding of
Simultaneously, rising energy-sector uncertainty and how financial risk modeling enhances decision-making for
tightened financial regulation have directly affected the risk- investors, developers, and policymakers engaged in the
return calculus of tax-equity investors. Meo, Ademokoya, design, financing, and operation of integrated renewable
and Abubakar (2025) identify that fluctuations in policy systems particularly those combining solar, wind, and battery
clarity and bank capital regulation contribute to increased energy storage assets. By aligning risk models with
time-varying risk premia for clean-energy investments. contemporary regulatory realities, the study aspires to
Particularly for tax-equity financing where investors improve investment predictability, resilience, and
monetise tax credits and depreciation specialized allowances sustainability across the renewable energy value chain.
the confluence of regulatory volatility and financial
regulation (e.g., risk-weights on bank exposures to tax-equity The scope of this study encompasses a detailed
funds) has raised the cost of capital and reduced available tax- exploration of financial, regulatory, and operational risks
equity supply. Investors in hybrid renewable portfolios must associated with hybrid renewable portfolios in the U.S.
therefore incorporate both evolving tax equity mechanics and energy market. It examines the interplay between federal
regulatory-environment sensitivities to safeguard yields and incentives, tax equity financing structures, and investor
structuring flexibility under the U.S. framework (Ononiwu et behavior under emerging clean-energy policies. Furthermore,
al., 2023). it analyzes how diversification and performance analytics
contribute to stabilizing cash flows and mitigating exposure
 Significance of Financial Risk Modeling in Renewable to policy volatility. The research focuses on institutional and
Energy Investment project-level perspectives, emphasizing the integration of
Financial risk modeling has emerged as a critical adaptive financial models that reflect current trends in
capability for renewable energy investment, given the renewable energy policy, market dynamics, and
sector’s exposure to both technology and market technological advancement.
uncertainties. As Li, Zheng, and Wang (2024) demonstrate in
a stock-market context, renewable energy assets display  Structure of the Paper
heightened sensitivity to climate-risk factors, which in turn The structure of this paper is systematically organized
generate more volatile returns and necessitate robust risk to provide a coherent understanding of financial risk
modelling frameworks. Applied to project- and portfolio- modeling within hybrid renewable energy portfolios under
level investments, such frameworks enable scenario analysis evolving U.S. regulatory and tax equity structures. Section
of revenue variability, cost overruns, regulatory shifts, and One introduces the study, highlighting the background,
residual value risk in hybrid renewable energy portfolios. objectives, and scope. Section Two examines the regulatory
Incorporating these risk drivers into quantitative models such landscape, focusing on federal and state-level renewable
as Value-at-Risk (VaR) or Conditional VaR (CVaR) allows energy standards, policy volatility, and decarbonization
investors to estimate potential tail-losses, assess structuring mandates shaping market transformation. Section Three
impacts of tax equity, and simulate shock scenarios across explores the dynamics of tax incentives, shifting investor
solar, wind and storage combinations (Okoh et al., 2024). behavior, and their implications for portfolio profitability.
Section Four identifies and analyzes market, regulatory, and
Further refining the modeling toolkit, Onyeka (2025) operational risks, emphasizing their transmission across
highlights the role of data-driven analytics and machine- multi-asset portfolios. Section Five evaluates the synergistic
learning-enabled risk mitigation in energy portfolios, integration of solar, wind, and battery energy storage systems,
emphasising how these tools optimize capital allocation and emphasizing diversification and financial resilience through
bolster portfolio resilience under dynamic regulatory and scenario-based analysis. Section Six connects investor
market environments. In the context of U.S. hybrid renewable behavior to financial performance metrics such as EBITDA
energy portfolios, this modelling significance translates into and asset valuation while addressing adaptive investment
improved alignment of debt/equity structuring, tax equity strategies. Finally, Section Seven outlines strategic
flips, eligibility-risk hedging and diversification tactics recommendations aimed at ensuring consistency in tax equity
across asset types. Hence, rigorous financial risk modelling provisions, strengthening investor confidence, and aligning
becomes not only a theoretical exercise but an indispensable financial strategies with long-term energy transition goals.
strategic function in preserving investor returns and

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 Volume 10, Issue 10, October – 2025 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No: -2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25oct1443

II. REGULATORY AND POLICY LANDSCAPE comparative analysis underscores how variations in policy
IN THE U.S. ENERGY SECTOR design (eligibility criteria, compliance mechanisms, and
target timelines) create heterogeneous risk exposures for
 Federal and State-Level Renewable Energy Standards renewable asset portfolios. In the context of hybrid renewable
Federal and state-level renewable energy standards play energy investments, understanding these state-specific policy
a pivotal role in driving the deployment of clean energy layers is essential for modeling revenue uncertainty, tax credit
technologies and shaping the investment landscape for hybrid eligibility, and grid connection risks under evolving
renewable energy portfolios. At the state level, mandatory regulatory conditions (James et al., 2023).
renewable portfolio standards (RPS) exert influence not only
within the enacting jurisdiction but also across borders: Zhou, Figure 1 integrated solar and wind farms exemplify
et al., (2024) demonstrate the ‘spillover effect’ of state RPS compliance with Federal and State-Level Renewable Energy
policies, finding that the stringency of one state’s RPS Standards (RES), such as Renewable Portfolio Standards
significantly influences renewable electricity generation in (RPS), which mandate utilities to source a growing
neighbouring states, particularly where renewable resource percentage of electricity from renewables. States with
endowments differ as shown in figure 1. This indicates that aggressive RPS targets often 50–100% by 2040 drive
hybrid portfolios operating across multiple jurisdictions must developers to deploy hybrid solar-wind projects to meet
account for not only their home-state policy targets but also compliance efficiently: solar delivers high daytime output
regional policy interdependencies and transmission linkages during peak demand, while wind generates across diurnal and
(Okoh et al., 2024). seasonal cycles, collectively maximizing renewable energy
credits (RECs) per acre. This co-location strategy accelerates
In the broader U.S. regulatory framework, Fache et al. RPS achievement, mitigates curtailment risk under grid
(2025) as presented in figure 1 highlight that states continue constraints, and aligns project economics with policy-driven
to refine RPS and clean-electricity standards (CES) programs procurement, ensuring long-term revenue certainty through
many raising targets above 50 % of retail sales or moving utility offtake agreements tied to state mandates.
toward 100 % clean electricity commitment. Their

Fig 1 Picture of Hybrid Solar-Wind: Accelerating Federal & State RPS Compliance (Fache et al., 2025).

 Impact of Policy Volatility on Capital Structuring and finance under uncertain regulatory environments, illustrating
Project Finance that lenders and sponsors must layer additional credit
Policy volatility imposes significant restructuring of enhancements when policy ambiguity rises. As regulatory
capital and financing frameworks within renewable energy regimes fluctuate, expectations of tax-credit eligibility, PPA
projects, as shifting regulatory signals alter expected cash terms and underwriting standards all shift, causing project
flows, risk premia, and debt/equity splits. For instance, in the sponsors to recalibrate debt service coverage ratios (DSCRs),
study by Jadidi et al. (2025) on utility-scale solar PV leverage levels, and structuring covenants in order to preserve
financing, the authors highlight how credit default swap financial viability.
instruments were introduced to manage default risk in project

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Moreover, Onabowale (2025) discusses how renewable structural modifications in market behaviour: long-term
investment capital is particularly sensitive to regulatory power purchase agreements are extended, capacity markets
inconsistency; abrupt changes in incentive frameworks lead evolve to compensate storage and demand-response rather
investors to demand higher returns or push project than legacy baseload plants, and tax-equity structures must
sanctioning later, thereby increasing cost of capital and adapt (Balogun, et al., 2025). For hybrid renewable energy
lengthening ramp-up timelines. The study underscores that portfolios those combining solar, wind and storage mandates
hybrid renewable portfolios should integrate this policy- effectively impose a “clean-asset premium” that alters
driven risk into their capital structuring models adjusting tax- revenue-risk profiles and can improve financing conditions
equity flip timing, cash flow waterfalls, and reserve provided models incorporate policy timing and compliance
mechanisms to account for the possibility of regulatory risk (Okoh et al., 2024).
reversals (Balogun, et al., 2025). In sum, the dynamic
regulatory backdrop means that financial risk modelling for Simultaneously, the embedding of decarbonization
hybrid renewable portfolios must explicitly incorporate mandates into regulatory and knowledge systems influences
policy volatility as a core structuring parameter (James et al., market governance and actor networks, with implications for
2024). capital flows and investor expectation formation. According
to Valenzuela (2025), the regulatory regime’s social
 The Role of Decarbonization Mandates in Market embeddedness and knowledge-network configuration
Transformation determine how mandates translate into operational market
Decarbonization mandates operate as transformative rules, transparency mechanisms and investor confidence. In
policy levers that reshape electricity markets by altering effect, mandates become not just numerical targets but signals
supply mix, investment signals and grid infrastructure on institutional readiness, which feed into cost of capital,
priorities. In the U.S., mandates such as 100 % clean structuring of tax equity vehicles and design of risk models
electricity targets compel utilities and independent system for hybrid renewable portfolios (Ussher-Eke, et al., 2025).
operators to retire dispatchable fossil-fuel assets, accelerate Understanding this dual role of mandates as both technical
renewable deployment and prioritize grid flexibility upgrades drivers and institutional catalysts is essential for assessing
as represented in table 1 (Hendrickson et al., 2024). This shift market transformation under evolving U.S. regulatory and
doesn’t merely change generation technologies it drives tax-equity frameworks (Idika, 2023).

Table 1 Summary of the Role of Decarbonization Mandates in Market Transformation

Key Focus Area Description Impact on Market Example/Implication
Transformation
Regulatory Decarbonization mandates establish Encourage long-term investment The U.S. Inflation Reduction
Frameworks legally binding emissions reduction in low-carbon technologies and Act and EU Green Deal have
targets and renewable energy promote the phasing out of fossil accelerated private investment
integration goals. fuel assets. in renewable infrastructure.
Technological Policies incentivize the adoption of Stimulate innovation in Development of next-
Innovation green technologies through renewable energy systems, generation wind turbines and
subsidies, tax credits, and research energy storage, and smart grid advanced battery storage
funding. applications. systems.
Capital Market Financial institutions increasingly Redirects capital flows from Institutional investors divesting
Reorientation align portfolios with carbon-neutral carbon-intensive sectors toward from coal-based assets in favor
standards and ESG benchmarks. sustainable energy ventures. of solar and wind projects.
Industrial Decarbonization mandates reshape Firms that adapt early gain Automotive and manufacturing
Competitiveness global supply chains and cost strategic advantages in low- sectors adopting green
structures in energy-intensive emission technologies and hydrogen to maintain market
industries. markets. relevance.

III. TAX EQUITY STRUCTURES AND percentage of investment cost upfront, whereas high-
INVESTMENT INCENTIVES capacity-factor assets with stable generation outputs often
favour the PTC’s per-kilowatt-hour structure. For example, a
 Dynamics of Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Production wind project in a high-wind region may choose the PTC to
Tax Credit (PTC) align credit accrual with generation performance, while a
The evolution of the federal investment tax credit (ITC) solar-plus-storage portfolio in marginal irradiation zones
and production tax credit (PTC) frameworks in the United might find the ITC more beneficial (Amebleh et al., 2022).
States has introduced significant complexity in structuring
renewable energy finance. Bistline, et al., (2024) examine Moran et al. (2025) delineate the regulatory timelines
how the shift toward technology-neutral credit eligibility and compliance thresholds underpinning the transition from
under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) alters the legacy credit (Sections 48 and 45) to the new tech-neutral
comparative valuation of ITC versus PTC as shown in figure credits (Sections 48E and 45Y). They highlight that the
2. They show that projects with high capital intensity and prevailing-wage and apprenticeship adders, eligibility of
lower capacity factors may favour the ITC because it offers a standalone storage and domestic-content bonuses mean that

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structuring decisions must integrate tax-equity flip timing, while benefiting from adders tied to prevailing wage,
investor tax appetite, and asset performance projections apprenticeship, and domestic content. Conversely, the right
(James, et al., 2025). Consequently, financial risk modelling branch, PTC, aligns with projects like wind farms that
for hybrid renewable portfolios must embed the dynamic maintain high and consistent generation outputs. It offers
interplay of ITC/PTC choice, credit monetisation timing, and performance-based credits calculated per kilowatt-hour,
regulatory compliance risk (Amebleh et al., 2023). promoting efficiency and stable operational performance.
Both branches converge at the tech-neutral transition node,
Figure 2 illustrates how U.S. renewable energy projects signifying the regulatory evolution from legacy Sections 48
strategically navigate between the two tax credit mechanisms and 45 to the new 48E and 45Y frameworks. This
under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). At the center is the convergence underscores the need for developers and
Renewable Energy Tax Credit Framework, representing the investors to incorporate tax-equity structuring, credit
regulatory foundation guiding investment and production monetization timing, and compliance considerations into
incentives. The left branch, ITC, emphasizes its suitability for financial risk models. Collectively, the diagram conveys how
capital-intensive projects such as solar-plus-storage systems the interplay between ITC and PTC choices shapes renewable
operating in regions with lower capacity factors. It highlights energy finance strategies, influencing project feasibility,
that ITC provides an upfront percentage of the total investor returns, and long-term portfolio optimization.
investment cost, enabling developers to recover capital early

Fig 2 Comparative Framework Illustrating the Dynamics of Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Production Tax Credit (PTC) Under
the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

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 Changing Investor Behavior Under Shifting Tax Regimes non-traditional clean-energy investors who previously
Investor behavior within the U.S. renewable energy focused on utility-scale solar or wind alone (Amebleh &
sector is undergoing substantive transformation in response Okoh, 2023).
to evolving tax regimes and market incentives. According to
Nguyen et al. (2024) as resented in table 2, the realignment of Complementing this, Kennedy (2025) finds that buyers
investment-income taxation toward eco-friendly assets has in the tax-credit transfer market display heightened
heightened investor sensitivity to the fiscal attributes of preference for credits from investment-grade sellers, shorter
projects, prompting a shift in capital allocation toward clean monetisation timelines, and portfolio scale, reflecting a shift
energy tax credit vehicles. In practice, this means that from project-by-project underwriting to platform-based
sophisticated investors now evaluate structures such as deployment strategies. In this environment, investor behavior
partnership-flip tax-equity models, direct-pay mechanisms, is increasingly defined by the interaction among credit-value
and credit transferability not only on engineering metrics but certainty, regulatory risk exposure, and structuring agility
on tax-monetisation pathways and shareholder return factors that feed directly into the financial risk modelling of
profiles. For example, developers offering standalone storage hybrid renewable portfolios under changing U.S. regulatory
assets structured to qualify for tax-equity credits are attracting and tax-equity frameworks (Amebleh & Omachi, 2023).

Table 2 Summary of Changing Investor Behavior Under Shifting Tax Regimes

Key Focus Area Description Impact on Investor Behavior Example/Implication
Tax Incentive Frequent adjustments to Investors adjust portfolio Reduction in the U.S. PTC caused
Variability investment and production tax allocations to minimize exposure a temporary slowdown in new
credits modify project return to uncertain policy wind projects before
expectations. environments. reinstatement.
Regulatory Stable and transparent tax Enhances investor confidence European Union’s long-term tax
Predictability structures attract long-term and reduces perceived risk in framework for renewables has
investors seeking predictable renewable asset classes. improved cross-border project
returns. financing.
Capital Tax regime shifts alter the Encourages innovative financial Investors increasingly use blended
Structuring optimal mix of debt and equity instruments such as green bonds finance to hedge against post-
Strategies financing for renewable projects. and yieldcos. subsidy market volatility.
Behavioral Policy uncertainty prompts Creates resilience through Global investors moving capital
Reallocation investors to diversify exposure to multiple regulatory from U.S. wind markets to Asia-
geographically or across environments. Pacific solar ventures during tax
technology types. credit transitions.

 Implications of Tax Policy Evolution for Portfolio scheme that shows how subsidies calibrated to consumer
Profitability surplus can offset declining revenue from clean energy
The evolution of tax policy in the U.S. particularly the deployment. In the context of hybrid portfolios, these insights
shift to technology-neutral clean energy credits and more imply that dynamic profit modeling must internalize
stringent eligibility criteria carries significant implications for endogenous interactions between tax rate changes, credit
the profitability of hybrid renewable energy portfolios. Under phase-outs, and subsidy rebalancing to maintain robust
the new regime, credits such as § 48E (ITC) and § 45Y (PTC) forecasted profitability across regulatory cycles (Oyekan et
are subject to adders (e.g., prevailing wage, domestic content) al., 2025).
and phase-out triggers, which means that effective credit rates
may fall short of nominal levels. This compresses internal IV. FINANCIAL RISK DYNAMICS IN HYBRID
rates of return (IRRs) for capital-intensive assets and RENEWABLE PORTFOLIOS
increases the importance of optimized structuring and
monetization timing across solar, wind, and storage layers  Identifying Market, Regulatory, and Operational Risks
(Idika, et al., 2025). For a hybrid portfolio blending high- In hybrid renewable energy portfolios, market risk
capacity wind, lower-capacity solar, and batteries, the relative arises chiefly from electricity price volatility, uncertainty in
sensitivity of each sub-asset to evolving tax regimes must be capacity market revenue, and mismatch between generation
modeled to ensure that blended cash flows remain positive supply and demand curves. Alcorta (2024) quantifies how
under worst-case credit erosion scenarios (James, 2022). regulatory support frameworks (e.g., contracts for difference
or fixed-price support) interact with market price
Moreover, as corporate and effective tax rates adjust in fluctuations: when wholesale prices fall below support
response to broader fiscal reforms, the after-tax benefit of tax thresholds, investor upside is capped, and when market prices
equity allocations shifts, altering the attractiveness of tax surge, support obligations may transform into liabilities.
equity financing relative to conventional equity or debt. Thus, portfolio risk models must include distributions of price
Meyer (2025) suggests that increases in corporate tax burdens deviations, capture optionality embedded in support schemes,
can inadvertently dampen green transitions by raising the and assess correlation across solar, wind, and battery revenue
hurdle rates for tax-incentivized projects. Meanwhile, Karimi streams. Meanwhile, Hernandez (2025) underscores that
Gharigh et al. (2024) model a complementary tax and subsidy transition risk stemming from abrupt shifts in carbon pricing,

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ISSN No: -2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25oct1443

subsidy rollback, or technology mandates can erode expected can lead to capacity losses and penalties under power
returns across an entire portfolio. These regulatory shifts may purchase agreements (Ijiga, et al., 2021). In a hybrid
precipitate performance cliffs, stranding of assets, or portfolio, cross-asset dependencies (e.g. battery cycling to
accelerated depreciation beyond base assumptions (Oyekan mitigate solar dips) introduce additional complexity: a fault
et al., 2023). in one subsystem may cascade into other assets. Robust
financial risk modeling must therefore integrate probabilistic
Operational risk is equally critical. It encompasses operational failure modes, maintenance downtime
resource variability (e.g. weather, irradiance, wind speed), distributions, and coupling effects, ensuring that downside
forced outages, equipment degradation, and delays in grid tail events are appropriately captured in loss forecasts
interconnection or permitting (Ussher-Eke, et al., 2025). For (Oyekan et al., 2024).
instance, failure of inverters or battery management systems

Table 3 Summary of Identifying Market, Regulatory, and Operational Risks

Risk Category Description Impact on Financial Example/Implication
Performance
Market Risk Fluctuations in electricity Revenue volatility can reduce A decline in wholesale energy prices
prices and demand affect investor returns and alter capital can lower profits for solar and wind
revenue stability in renewable budgeting decisions. projects without long-term power
energy markets. purchase agreements (PPAs).
Regulatory Risk Policy changes, tax reforms, or May increase financing costs, Sudden modification of the U.S.
delayed incentives create reduce investor confidence, and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) led to
uncertainty in project financing delay project deployment. postponed solar investments in
and profitability. several states.
Operational Risk Technical failures, equipment Reduces EBITDA margins and Turbine blade fatigue or battery
downtime, or inefficiencies in affects the long-term valuation of degradation decreases system
hybrid systems disrupt energy renewable portfolios. reliability and revenue potential.
generation.
Integration Risk Challenges in synchronizing Leads to suboptimal performance Grid congestion and storage
solar, wind, and battery and higher balancing costs. inefficiencies impact hybrid plant
operations under variable grid profitability and dispatch efficiency.
conditions.

 Interactions Between Policy Uncertainty and Revenue quantifying how uncertainty amplifies downside revenue risk
Stability and compresses expected returns under evolving U.S.
Policy uncertainty can dramatically perturb the revenue regulatory and tax-equity frameworks (Amebleh et al., 2021).
certainty of hybrid renewable energy portfolios, because
investor expectations about future tax credits, mandates, or  Risk Transmission Mechanisms Across Multi-Asset
market rules influence pricing and contractual outcomes. Portfolios
Navia Simon et al. (2025) show that in electricity markets, Risk transmission in hybrid renewable energy
stability in wholesale pricing acts as an implicit insurance portfolios manifests through spillover, contagion, and
against fuel price volatility and supply shocks; however, coupling dynamics, where disturbances in one asset class
when regulatory frameworks shift unpredictably, the propagate to others via correlated exposures and structural
correlation between electricity prices and cost baselines linkages. He, et al., (2025) employ a higher-order moments
becomes more volatile, undermining assumptions of revenue spillover framework to show that tail shocks in sustainable
stability. In hybrid settings, mismatches in output across markets transmit nonlinearly to traditional asset classes, with
solar, wind, and storage assets exacerbate the exposure to variances, skewness, and kurtosis interdependencies
regulatory regime shifts: a policy rollback or credit truncation magnifying contagion as represented in figure 3. In a hybrid
during low generation periods can disproportionately erode renewable portfolio, a severe drop in wind generation revenue
revenue buffers (Idika et al., 2021). exacerbated by policy reversal can ripple into solar and
battery margins through shared debt structure, shared PPA
Pata and Pata (2025) demonstrate that high energy obligations, or common counterparty exposure, amplifying
policy uncertainty reduces investment by increasing discount downside loss beyond simple variance correlation. The jump-
rates and generating capital flight from clean sectors. For spillover of tax equity risks or regulatory reversals similarly
hybrid renewable portfolios, this means that projected cash propagate across asset lines when credits or subsidies are
flows must integrate regime-switch models and stochastic bundled across multiple technologies.
policy paths. Fluctuations in subsidy credibility, credit phase-
outs, or eligibility criteria induce revenue volatility that Complementarily, Kuang, et al., (2024) illustrate that
cascades through tax equity monetization, debt service clean energy sub-sectors offer distinct diversification roles
coverage ratios, and sponsor yields (Ijiga, et al., 2021). A under physical and transition risks: some sub-assets act as net
rigorous financial risk model must therefore capture the joint transmitters, while others serve as shock absorbers. When
distribution of policy states and generation outcomes, deployed within a multi-asset hybrid portfolio, this

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asymmetric connectivity means that an adverse policy shock coupling. Consequently, financial risk modeling must map
affecting the solar segment may be dampened through wind these transmission pathways via covariance, tail–spillover
or storage assets with lower sensitivity to that policy vector matrices, and structural interlinkages to correctly assess
(Ijiga, et al., 2022). However, because capital structure and portfolio tail risk and inter-asset contagion under evolving
tax equity vehicles often intertwine the assets, the buffer U.S. regulatory and tax equity regimes (Azonuche & Enyejo,
capacity is constrained by legal, contractual, and financial 2024).

Fig 3 Conceptual Diagram Illustrating Spillover, Contagion, and Connectivity Mechanisms in Multi-Asset Hybrid Renewable
Portfolios.

Figure 3 illustrates how financial and operational risks how different renewable sub-sectors exhibit uneven risk
propagate within diversified renewable energy portfolios behavior, where some assets act as transmitters of volatility
through two primary pathways. On the left, the Spillover and while others function as buffers against market or policy
Contagion Dynamics branch explains how nonlinear shock shocks. However, this diversification potential is constrained
propagation and interlinked financial structures intensify by structural and legal coupling, as intertwined capital
portfolio vulnerability. It shows that disturbances such as structures and tax equity arrangements restrict each asset’s
sharp declines in wind generation revenue or policy reversals ability to independently absorb shocks. Overall, the diagram
can cascade across assets like solar and storage through highlights that risk transmission across hybrid renewable
shared debt instruments, power purchase agreements, or portfolios is governed by a delicate balance between
common counterparties, magnifying losses beyond standard contagion forces and limited diversification capacity due to
variance-based correlations. On the right, the Asymmetric financial interdependencies.
Connectivity and Shock Absorption branch demonstrates

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V. PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION AND storage, can flatten supply curves and improve
RESILIENCE STRATEGIES dispatchability. For example, a solar-wind-battery hybrid
may shift midday solar surplus into evening hours via storage,
 Synergies Between Solar, Wind, and Battery Energy while wind output can fill early-morning demand gaps (Ijiga,
Storage Assets et al., 2023). This synergy improves capacity factor, reduces
The integration of solar photovoltaic (PV), wind mismatch losses, and strengthens the case for tax-equity and
turbines, and battery energy storage systems (BESS) within debt financing under evolving regulatory regimes. In the
hybrid renewable energy portfolios yields substantive context of hybrid renewable portfolios under U.S. tax-equity
technical and financial synergies. According to Murcia Leon structures, such asset coupling supports more robust cash-
et al. (2024) demonstrate, collocating solar, wind and lithium- flow modelling, higher debt service coverage ratios (DSCRs),
ion battery assets behind a single grid tie point allows for and improved investor confidence in project viability
shared infrastructure (such as grid connection and step-up (Azonuche & Enyejo, 2024).
transformers), which reduces capital expenditures and
improves net present value (NPV) relative to stand-alone Figure 4 illustrates synergies between solar, wind, and
assets as presented in figure 4. In their model, the sizing battery energy storage assets within a microgrid system,
algorithm optimized generation mix and storage capacity so where wind turbines and PV panels generate complementary
that battery discharge supports times of low wind or low solar renewable energy wind often peaks at night or during storms,
irradiance, thereby smoothing output and reducing while solar dominates daytime hours feeding a shared storage
curtailment (Gayawan, & Fagbohungbe, 2023). From a battery via a unified connecting circuit. The battery, governed
portfolio perspective, this reduction in generation variability by an energy storage control system and central oversight,
enhances revenue stability and lowers risk Premiums in smooths intermittency by storing excess generation and
financing (Azonuche & Enyejo, 2024). dispatching power to meet load demand or export to the main
grid, reducing curtailment, enhancing grid reliability, and
Moreover, Bethi (2025) underscores that the maximizing revenue through arbitrage and ancillary services.
complementary generation profiles of solar and wind solar This integrated architecture lowers system costs, improves
peaking during daylight hours and wind often stronger during capacity utilization, and creates operational synergy far
evenings or nights when paired with appropriately sized greater than standalone assets.

Fig 4 Picture of Solar + Wind + Storage: Synergistic Microgrid Power (Murcia Leon et al., 2024).

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 Diversification as a Buffer Against Market and Policy Extending this insight, Bouzguenda and Jarboui (2025)
Shocks analyze clean energy ETFs and ESG index performance in
Diversification within hybrid renewable energy emerging markets, noting that during heightened policy or
portfolios functions as a critical buffer against both market market uncertainty these assets serve as effective hedges due
turbulence and regulatory shifts. Belkhir et al. (2024) as to less synchronous correlation with traditional energy
represented in table 4 demonstrate that clean-energy assets markets. Translating this to hybrid portfolios, diversification
such as solar and wind, when blended with conventional across solar, wind and battery storage assets spreads
energy assets, reduce overall portfolio volatility and improve idiosyncratic risk from policies (such as tax-equity flip timing
hedging efficiency because they experience distinct shock or eligibility changes) and market shocks (such as wholesale
transmission pathways. This implies that in a U.S. price collapses or curtailment) (Fagbohungbe, et al., 2020).
environment of shifting tax-equity incentives and regulatory By structuring cash-flow models that incorporate multiple
resets, portfolios combining multiple renewable technologies asset streams, sponsors can achieve lower downside
can better absorb abrupt changes in revenue, credit eligibility, exposure, optimize volumetric risk and support more stable
or incentive phasing (Idika, et al., 2023). For example, if solar investor returns under evolving U.S. regulatory and tax-
tax credit eligibility is suddenly reduced, wind or storage equity frameworks (Ononiwu et al., 2024).
assets in the same portfolio may continue generating
unaffected tax-equity benefits, thereby stabilizing cash flow
and improving debt service coverage (Ononiwu et al., 2023).

Table 4 Summary of Diversification as a Buffer Against Market and Policy Shocks

Diversification Description Risk Mitigation Effect Example/Implication
Type
Technological Combining multiple renewable Reduces exposure to output When wind generation
Diversification technologies such as solar, wind, and variability and enhances declines, solar output can
battery energy storage within a single overall energy reliability. offset shortfalls, stabilizing
portfolio. revenue streams.
Geographical Distribution of assets across multiple Spreads policy and weather- A portfolio spanning Texas,
Diversification states or regions with different related risks across California, and Illinois hedges
climatic and regulatory conditions. jurisdictions, minimizing against localized regulatory
local disruptions. changes or weather anomalies.
Revenue Stream Inclusion of various income sources Ensures consistent cash flow If PPA prices drop, REC sales
Diversification such as power purchase agreements even under adverse market or frequency regulation
(PPAs), renewable energy credits conditions or regulatory services maintain profitability.
(RECs), and ancillary services. reforms.
Investor Portfolio Allocation of capital across projects Reduces overall exposure to Institutional investors balance
Diversification with varying maturity levels and systemic shocks and early-stage projects with
financial structures. enhances capital resilience. operational assets to stabilize
expected returns.

 Assessing Financial Resilience Through Scenario-Based incorporated into scenario frameworks: by embedding
Analysis varying cost-of-capital trajectories, credit premia shifts, and
In hybrid renewable energy portfolios, scenario-based technology learning paths into scenario trees, one can test
analysis enables detailed exploration of alternative future which regulatory regimes and structural configurations
states such as abrupt regulatory rollback, credit phase-outs, produce sustainable IRRs. For a hybrid renewable portfolio,
extreme weather events, or deep market price stress and scenario modeling that spans regulatory, operational, and
quantifies their impact on cash flows, debt service metrics, financial axes allows identification of robust structuring
and viability thresholds (Ijiga, et al., 2025). Drawing on stress strategies such as dynamic hedging or reserve buffers that
testing techniques developed for credit portfolios, Jacobs maintain viability even under adverse future states (James el
(2025) highlights how entropy pooling and Bayesian network al., 2024).
methods can generate coherent joint scenarios that preserve
realistic dependence structures among risk factors. In our VI. INVESTOR INSIGHTS AND EBITDA
context, these tools permit simulation of joint shocks to STABILITY
wholesale electricity prices, subsidy regime changes,
technology cost escalations, and capacity degradation,  Evaluating Investor Risk Appetite and Return
thereby assessing portfolio tail risk and resilience under Expectations
correlated stress events (Ononiwu et al., 2023). Investor risk appetite in renewable energy has become
increasingly nuanced, informed both by the maturation of the
Furthermore, reducing the cost of capital is central to sector and by evolving policy risks. In structured hybrid
energy transition success, but it also depends on the perceived portfolios, investors weigh not only the prospect of steady
risk of transition pathways. Calcaterra et al. (2024) argue that cash flows but also downside exposure from regulatory
policy and financial de-risking measures must be explicitly reversals, subsidy phase-outs, and technology obsolescence.

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The adoption of multi-stage stochastic frameworks like those investor behavior than project fundamentals. Armah (2025)
proposed by Ogunniran et al. (2025) as represented in table 5 finds that during periods of market stress, clean energy
helps to link investor return expectations to conditional investments see disproportionate capital withdrawal, as
Value-at-Risk (CVaR) thresholds over multiple time periods. investors reprice expected returns upward in response to
Under such models, an investor might accept a lower nominal liquidity premiums and increased discounting. In hybrid
IRR for a portfolio that maintains tighter downside protection portfolio contexts, this means that investor return
across various regulatory and market scenarios (Atalor, et al., expectations in normal periods must already compensate for
2023). Thus, risk appetite is increasingly defined in terms of potential crises leading to a built-in risk premium or buffer in
resilience to tail events rather than simply midpoint returns. the structuring of tax equity, debt leverage, and cash sweep
mechanics to satisfy downside protection demands without
At times of heightened stress in capital markets, broad sacrificing deployable capital (Ogunlana & Peter-Anyebe,
liquidity and credit constraints exert stronger influence on 2024).

Table 5 Summary of Evaluating Investor Risk Appetite and Return Expectations

Investor Category Risk Appetite Return Expectations Strategic Implications
Institutional Low to moderate; prefer Moderate returns aligned Focus on mature renewable assets
Investors (e.g., long-term stability and with low volatility and backed by long-term power purchase
pension funds, predictable cash flows. regulatory certainty. agreements (PPAs) and stable tax equity
insurance firms) frameworks.
Private Equity and High; willing to absorb High returns from early- Target innovative hybrid energy models
Venture Capital short-term volatility for stage or emerging integrating battery storage and AI-
Firms potential high growth. technology investments. driven grid optimization.
Sovereign Wealth Moderate; emphasize Balanced returns with socio- Invest in diversified regional portfolios
Funds and Public national energy security and economic and environmental promoting energy transition and
Investment Bodies sustainable growth. value creation. infrastructure resilience.
Retail and Impact Variable; driven by ethical, Lower financial returns but Support community-scale renewable
Investors environmental, and social higher impact returns aligned projects and green bonds promoting
considerations. with ESG goals. long-term sustainability.

 Linking Financial Modeling to EBITDA Performance and Gómez-Restrepo et al. (2024) examine valuation
Asset Valuation models tailored for photovoltaic systems with storage,
Robust financial modeling in hybrid renewable energy emphasizing the integration of battery dynamics and subsidy
portfolios must connect projected cash flows to EBITDA profiles in cash flow simulation. Their work shows that
performance and asset valuation by embedding tax credits, modeling must account for storage charge/discharge
operational risks, and capital structure within valuation behavior, degradation, and subsidy eligibility transitions to
frameworks. The use of option-theoretic techniques, as forecast operational EBITDA trajectories accurately
reviewed by Giannelos et al. (2025) as represented in figure (Fagbohungbe, et al., 2025). When such dynamic modeling is
5, enables the capture of the value of flexibility (for example, extended to a hybrid portfolio combining solar, wind, and
deferring investment or scaling capacity) and optionality that storage, it allows asset valuation to reflect blending synergies,
conventional DCF models may miss particularly in the subsidy timing, and correlation effects (Nwatuzie, et al.,
presence of regulatory changes or subsidy uncertainty. By 2025). As a result, enterprise valuation based on EBITDA
integrating real-option adjustments into base case cash flow multiples or discounted cash flows aligns closely with
projections, one can derive adjusted EBITDA forecasts that underlying risk, structuring constraints, and investor
more accurately reflect downside protection and upside expectations under evolving U.S. regulatory and tax equity
potential under alternative policy paths. These EBITDA regimes (Ogunlana et al., 2025).
estimates then feed into enterprise valuations via multiples or
DCF discounting, with adjustments for the unique risk profile
of hybrid portfolios.

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Fig 5 Conceptual Diagram Linking Financial Modeling, EBITDA Forecasting, and Asset Valuation in Hybrid Renewable Energy
Portfolios

Figure 5 provides a structured visualization of how policy-driven variability. The bottom-right branch, EBITDA
comprehensive financial modeling connects operational cash and Asset Valuation Linkage, details the pathway from
flow forecasts to EBITDA estimation and, ultimately, adjusted EBITDA to enterprise value, using multiples or
enterprise valuation. At the center lies the Hybrid Renewable discounted cash flows, while accounting for multi-asset
Energy Financial Modeling Framework, representing the interactions among solar, wind, and storage systems. This
integration of financial, operational, and policy-related branch also reflects how valuation must align with investor
parameters in valuation analysis. The left branch, Cash Flow expectations and regulatory risk factors, ensuring that
and Tax Credit Integration, emphasizes the incorporation of financial outcomes accurately represent underlying
investment and production tax credits, subsidy timing, and operational realities and structural dependencies within
regulatory transitions into cash flow projections, while hybrid renewable portfolios
adjusting for operational risks such as output volatility, asset
degradation, and financing mix across debt and tax equity.  Adaptive Investment Strategies Under Evolving
The top-right branch, Option-Theoretic and Real-Option Regulatory Environments
Modeling, illustrates how flexibility in investment decisions Adaptive investment strategies in hybrid renewable
such as delaying, expanding, or scaling capacity is captured portfolios must proactively respond to regulatory changes,
through real-option techniques that enhance conventional enabling dynamic reallocation of capital, flexible structuring,
DCF models by embedding scenario-based forecasting and and staged deployment. Yang, Cai, and Rolfe (2024) propose

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investment models that allow project sponsors to delay, scale  Strengthening Investor Confidence in Renewable Energy
or abort projects in response to shifts in subsidy regimes or Markets
policy reversals, effectively embedding real option flexibility Strengthening investor confidence in renewable energy
within capital planning. In practice, a hybrid portfolio might markets requires a balance between financial transparency,
initially commission solar and storage capacity while regulatory predictability, and technological reliability.
deferring wind buildout until incentive clarity emerges Investors seek assurance that renewable energy projects will
(Eguagie, et al., 2025). This staged approach reduces deliver stable, long-term returns despite evolving policy and
exposure to regulatory reversal and allows the portfolio to market conditions. Establishing clear frameworks for power
adjust allocations as tax equity conditions evolve purchase agreements (PPAs), tax credits, and renewable
portfolio standards enhances investor trust and reduces
Complementing this, Mohnot, et al., (2025) examine perceived risks associated with policy reversals or market
how renewable investors adjust portfolio strategies over time volatility. Transparent reporting standards, consistent data
by reallocating risk weights, hedging exposure to credit disclosure, and verified performance analytics further assure
phase-outs, or realigning debt versus tax-equity splits across investors of project integrity and operational efficiency. By
assets. They document that portfolios which embed institutionalizing these practices, renewable energy markets
contingency clauses or trigger-based repositioning (e.g., can attract both domestic and international capital,
shifting weight toward storage when solar credit rates fall) diversifying investment sources and improving liquidity.
perform better under policy turbulence. For hybrid renewable
portfolios under U.S. tax equity regimes, the implication is Moreover, investor confidence is strengthened when
that investment strategy should be adaptive not fixed there is alignment between government incentives and private
(Ihimoyan, et al., 2024). Modeling must therefore incorporate sector strategies. Predictable regulatory environments,
decision nodes and trigger thresholds tied to regulatory states, complemented by robust financial risk modeling, enable
enabling investors to shift capital, renegotiate flips, or investors to anticipate market dynamics and plan accordingly.
reoptimize generation mixes over time to preserve IRR under The inclusion of hybrid renewable assets such as solar, wind,
evolving policy landscapes (Ogunlana & Omachi, 2024). and battery energy storage enhances revenue stability and
mitigates exposure to single-market fluctuations. Confidence
VII. POLICY IMPLICATIONS, STRATEGIC also grows when public–private partnerships demonstrate
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION successful risk-sharing mechanisms and financial resilience.
As renewable energy markets mature, sustained investor trust
 Ensuring Consistency in U.S. Tax Equity Provisions becomes the cornerstone for scaling infrastructure, achieving
Ensuring consistency in U.S. tax equity provisions is decarbonization targets, and supporting economic growth
critical for maintaining investor confidence and long-term through sustainable capital deployment.
financial stability in renewable energy portfolios. Variability
in tax credit structures, depreciation schedules, and eligibility  Aligning Financial Strategies with Long-Term Energy
criteria often introduces uncertainty into capital planning and Transition Goals
cash flow projections. When tax equity rules remain Aligning financial strategies with long-term energy
predictable, investors can optimize portfolio leverage, align transition goals requires integrating sustainability objectives
risk-sharing agreements, and model more accurate EBITDA into the core of investment planning, risk assessment, and
outcomes across solar, wind, and storage assets. Consistency portfolio management. Financial models must increasingly
also strengthens syndication among financial institutions by account for carbon pricing, emissions reduction pathways,
standardizing valuation metrics, credit enhancement and evolving regulatory benchmarks that shape the
structures, and compliance requirements. This uniformity profitability of renewable energy projects. Investors and
minimizes due diligence costs and enhances liquidity in developers are shifting from short-term returns toward
secondary markets for renewable energy investments. lifecycle-based valuation approaches that incorporate
environmental, social, and governance (ESG) metrics. This
However, frequent policy revisions or inconsistent alignment ensures that capital allocation supports projects
interpretations of tax equity provisions can undermine project capable of maintaining competitiveness in a decarbonized
feasibility and deter institutional participation. Developers economy, while also promoting technological innovation and
may face difficulties in forecasting after-tax returns or resilience in the renewable energy supply chain. Strategic
structuring deals that align with both federal and state-level financing instruments such as green bonds, sustainability-
incentives. A stable and transparent tax framework ensures linked loans, and blended finance mechanisms play a pivotal
that financial modeling can accurately reflect long-term role in driving this transition by lowering capital costs and
depreciation benefits and production-based incentives. By enhancing long-term financial viability.
sustaining consistent tax equity provisions, policymakers can
encourage greater integration of renewable technologies Additionally, the synchronization of financial strategies
within diversified portfolios while reducing the cost of with energy transition goals enhances systemic stability
capital. This consistency ultimately promotes sector-wide across the energy sector. By embedding transition-aligned
scalability, enhances project bankability, and reinforces the financial practices into corporate governance structures, firms
United States’ commitment to sustainable energy transition. can better anticipate market shifts and policy reforms. This
approach encourages investments in grid modernization,
energy storage, and carbon-neutral technologies, all of which

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underpin a sustainable, low-carbon energy system. Long- Performance Obligations, Consideration Payable to
term alignment also fosters investor confidence, signaling Customers, and Automated Liability Accruals at
that renewable portfolios are not only profitable but Payments Scale. Finance & Accounting Research
strategically positioned to thrive in an economy progressively Journal, 5(12), 528–548.
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