The Influence of

Monetary and Fiscal

34
Policy on Aggregate
Demand
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
 Aggregate Demand
• Many factors influence aggregate demand
besides monetary and fiscal policy.
• In particular, desired spending by households
and business firms determines the overall
demand for goods and services.
• When desired spending changes, aggregate
demand shifts, causing short-run fluctuations in
output and employment.
• Monetary and fiscal policy are sometimes used
to offset those shifts and stabilize the economy.
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 HOW MONETARY POLICY
INFLUENCES AGGREGATE DEMAND
• The aggregate demand curve slopes downward
for three reasons:
• The wealth effect
• The interest-rate effect
• The exchange-rate effect
• For the U.S. economy, the most important
reason for the downward slope of the
aggregate-demand curve is the interest-rate
effect.
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The Theory of Liquidity Preference

• Keynes developed the theory of liquidity preference in

order to explain what factors determine the economy’s
interest rate.
• According to the theory, the interest rate adjusts to
balance the supply and demand for money.
• Money Supply
• The money supply is controlled by the Fed through:
• Open-market operations
• Changing the reserve requirements
• Changing the discount rate
• Because it is fixed by the Fed, the quantity of money
supplied does not depend on the interest rate.
• The fixed money supply is represented by a vertical supply
curve.
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The Theory of Liquidity Preference

• Money Demand
• Money demand is determined by several factors.
• According to the theory of liquidity preference, one of
the most important factors is the interest rate.
• People choose to hold money instead of other assets that
offer higher rates of return because money can be used to
buy goods and services.
• The opportunity cost of holding money is the interest that
could be earned on interest-earning assets.
• An increase in the interest rate raises the opportunity cost
of holding money.
• As a result, the quantity of money demanded is reduced.
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The Theory of Liquidity Preference

• Equilibrium in the Money Market

• According to the theory of liquidity preference:
• The interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and
demand for money.
• There is one interest rate, called the equilibrium interest
rate, at which the quantity of money demanded equals the
quantity of money supplied.
• Assume the following about the economy:
• The price level is stuck at some level.
• For any given price level, the interest rate adjusts to
balance the supply and demand for money.
• The level of output responds to the aggregate demand for
goods and services.
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 Figure 1 Equilibrium in the Money Market

Interest
Rate
Money
supply

r1

Equilibrium
interest
rate
r2
Money
demand

0 Md Quantity fixed M2d Quantity of

by the Fed Money
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The Downward Slope of the Aggregate
Demand Curve
• The price level is one determinant of the quantity of
money demanded.
• A higher price level increases the quantity of money
demanded for any given interest rate.
• Higher money demand leads to a higher interest rate.
• The quantity of goods and services demanded falls.
• The end result of this analysis is a negative
relationship between the price level and the quantity of
goods and services demanded.

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 Figure 2 The Money Market and the Slope of the
Aggregate-Demand Curve

(a) The Money Market (b) The Aggregate-Demand Curve

Interest Money Price

Rate supply Level
2. . . . increases the
demand for money . . .

r2 P2
Money demand at
price level P2 , MD2
r 1. An P
3. . . .
which increase
Money demand at in the Aggregate
increases
price level P , MD price demand
the
equilibrium 0 level . . . 0
Quantity fixed Quantity Y2 Y Quantity
interest
by the Fed of Money of Output
rate . . .
4. . . . which in turn reduces the quantity
of goods and services demanded.

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Changes in the Money Supply

• The Fed can shift the aggregate demand curve

when it changes monetary policy.
• An increase in the money supply shifts the
money supply curve to the right.
• Without a change in the money demand curve,
the interest rate falls.
• Falling interest rates increase the quantity of
goods and services demanded.

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 Figure 3 A Monetary Injection

(a) The Money Market (b) The Aggregate-Demand Curve

Interest Price
Rate Money MS2 Level
supply,
MS

r 1. When the Fed P

increases the
money supply . . .
2. . . . the r2
AD2
equilibrium
interest rate Money demand Aggregate
falls . . . at price level P demand, AD
0 Quantity 0 Y Y Quantity
of Money of Output
3. . . . which increases the quantity of goods
and services demanded at a given price level.

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Changes in the Money Supply

• When the Fed increases the money supply, it lowers the interest
rate and increases the quantity of goods and services demanded
at any given price level, shifting aggregate-demand to the right.
• When the Fed contracts the money supply, it raises the interest
rate and reduces the quantity of goods and services demanded at
any given price level, shifting aggregate-demand to the left.
• Monetary policy can be described either in terms of the money
supply or in terms of the interest rate.
• Changes in monetary policy can be viewed either in terms of a
changing target for the interest rate or in terms of a change in
the money supply.
• A target for the federal funds rate affects the money market
equilibrium, which influences aggregate demand.

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 HOW FISCAL POLICY INFLUENCES
AGGREGATE DEMAND
• Fiscal policy refers to the government’s choices
regarding the overall level of government
purchases or taxes.
• Fiscal policy influences saving, investment, and
growth in the long run.
• In the short run, fiscal policy primarily affects
the aggregate demand.

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Changes in Government Purchases

• When policymakers change the money supply

or taxes, the effect on aggregate demand is
indirect—through the spending decisions of
firms or households.
• When the government alters its own purchases
of goods or services, it shifts the aggregate-
demand curve directly.
• There are two macroeconomic effects from the
change in government purchases:
• The multiplier effect
• The crowding-out effect
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The Multiplier Effect

• Government purchases are said to have a

multiplier effect on aggregate demand.
• Each dollar spent by the government can raise the
aggregate demand for goods and services by more
than a dollar.
• Multiplier effect : pergeseran pada permintaan
agregate yang terjadi ketika kebijakan fiskal
yang ekspansif menyebabkan pendapatan naik
yang menyebabkan pembelanjaan konsumen
juga naik.
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Figure 4 The Multiplier Effect

Price
Level

2. . . . but the multiplier

effect can amplify the
shift in aggregate
demand.

$20 billion

AD3
AD2
Aggregate demand, AD1
0 Quantity of
1. An increase in government purchases Output
of $20 billion initially increases aggregate
demand by $20 billion . . .
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A Formula for the Spending Multiplier

• The formula for the multiplier is:

Multiplier = 1/(1 - MPC)
• An important number in this formula is the
marginal propensity to consume (MPC).
• It is the fraction of extra income that a household
consumes rather than saves.

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A Formula for the Spending Multiplier

• If the MPC is 3/4, then the multiplier will be:

Multiplier = 1/(1 - 3/4) = 4
• In this case, a $20 billion increase in
government spending generates $80 billion of
increased demand for goods and services.

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The Crowding-Out Effect

• Fiscal policy may not affect the economy as strongly

as predicted by the multiplier.
• An increase in government purchases causes the
interest rate to rise.
• A higher interest rate reduces investment spending.
• Crowding Out Effect : diimpaskan pergerseran pada
permintaan agregat karena kebijakan fiskal yang
ekspansif meningkatkan suku bunga yang
menyebabkan pembelanjaan investasi berkurang

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 Figure 5 The Crowding-Out Effect

(a) The Money Market (b) The Shift in Aggregate Demand

Interest Price
Money 4. . . . which in turn
Rate Level
supply partly offsets the
2. . . . the increase in $20 billion initial increase in
spending increases aggregate demand.
money demand . . .
r2

3. . . . which
increases AD2
the r
AD3
equilibrium MD2
interest
rate . . . Aggregate demand, AD1
Money demand, MD
0 Quantity fixed Quantity 0 Quantity
by the Fed of Money 1. When an increase in government of Output
purchases increases aggregate
demand . . .

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Changes in Taxes

• When the government cuts personal income taxes, it

increases households’ take-home pay.
• Households save some of this additional income.
• Households also spend some of it on consumer goods.
• Increased household spending shifts the aggregate-demand
curve to the right.
• The size of the shift in aggregate demand resulting
from a tax change is affected by the multiplier and
crowding-out effects.
• It is also determined by the households’ perceptions
about the permanency of the tax change.
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 USING POLICY TO STABILIZE
THE ECONOMY
• Economic stabilization has been an explicit
goal of U.S. policy since the Employment Act
of 1946.

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The Case for Active Stabilization Policy

• The Employment Act has two implications:

• The government should avoid being the cause of
economic fluctuations.
• The government should respond to changes in the
private economy in order to stabilize aggregate
demand.

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The Case against Active Stabilization Policy

• Some economists argue that monetary and

fiscal policy destabilizes the economy.
• Monetary and fiscal policy affect the economy
with a substantial lag.
• They suggest the economy should be left to
deal with the short-run fluctuations on its own.

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Automatic Stabilizers

• Automatic stabilizers : berbagai perubahan

kebijakan fiskal yang merangsang permintaan
agregat saat perekonomian mengalami resesi
tanpa harus menunggu tindakan pembuatan
kebijakan
• Automatic stabilizers include the tax system
and some forms of government spending.

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