Making the right decisions in a complex world
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Dr. Graham Willis discusses the complexities of workforce planning in healthcare, emphasizing the need for robust decision-making processes that consider multiple future scenarios. He highlights the importance of transparency and participation in exploring possible futures and stress-testing policies. The presentation aims to address uncertainties in the healthcare workforce, particularly the supply and demand of trained hospital doctors by 2040.
Making the right decisions in a complex world
- 1. Making the right decisions in a complex world Dr. Graham Willis Head of R&D, Centre for Workforce Intelligence Canadian Health Workforce Conference
- 3. How many trained hospital doctors will we have by 2040? Cost
- 4. How many do we need? 2014 2040 Do we trust this? Trained hospital doctors (thousands) 60 50 40 30 Year Supply Demand ?
- 5. What if the future is not what we expect? System Problem Failure Policy Megatrends Events
- 6. Consider many futures… Expected future Use plausible, challenging and consistent futures to test policies
- 7. Robust workforce planning Understand the system Explore the future Make robust decisions Simulate the possibilities Focal question Transparent and participatory
- 8. Horizon scanning Context Issues Factors Events Ideas bank System mapping
- 9. Scenario generation Stakeholder workshops Influencing factors Key factors Consistency check Narrative scenarios Quantified scenarios
- 10. Scenario generation workshop Key factors Low Impact High Predetermined Key factors Secondary Low Uncertainty High
- 11. Scenario generation workshop Consistency analysis Population GDP growth Energy usage Carbon emissions High Low B A C
- 12. Scenario generation workshop Quantify critical parameters Vary across different futures Formal elicitation protocol Monte Carlo simulation Probability Value
- 13. Modeling and simulation Demand side Outputs Supply side
- 14. Policy outcomes Policy analysis Policy options: A B C D
- 15. Example Pharmacy Number of pharmacists (full-time equivalent) 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Year Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 2 Scenario 4
- 16. Example Future demand for skills Skill hours/Year (Billions) 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Time (Year) Probability: 80% 100% Central estimate:
- 17. Key points What if the future is not what we expect? Consider many futures Transparent and participatory approach
- 18. Stress testing
- 19. Contact details Dr Graham Willis Head of Research and Development Centre for Workforce Intelligence, England @ +44(0)7812 340 405 [email protected] www.cfwi.org.uk | www.horizonscanning.org.uk
- 20. Making the right decisions in a complex world Dr. Graham Willis Head of R&D, Centre for Workforce Intelligence Canadian Health Workforce Conference