Wst graphical web_v2
- 1. Dr Will Stahl-Timmins VISUALISING HEALTH RESEARCH March 2014
- 4. WELLBEING AND THE ENVIRONMENT: POSSIBLE LINKS BETWEEN CONSERVATION ACTIVITIES AND HEALTH ACHIEVEMENT / CONTRIBUTION CHANGE IN PERSONAL / SOCIAL IDENTITY EXPECTATIONS BEING KNOWLEDGE SPIRITUALITY OUTCOMES AWAY ACQUISITION CONTACT SOCIAL RECUPERATION POTENTIAL ENJOYMENT/FROM STRESSORS PLEASURE STORATION / REPHYSICAL GOING CONFIDENCE PROCESS INTO NATURE SELF-MECHANISMACTIVITY CHANGE / S OF ACTIVITY MODERATORS TYPE OF ENGAGEMENT ENGAGEMENT ROUTE(S) EXPECTATIONS ENVIRONMENTAL MODERATORS MECHANISM MODERATORS PERSONAL MEDIATORS CHANGE IN SOCIAL / GROUP COHESION TYPE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ENJOYMENT ACHIEVEMENT(S) DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIAL CAPITAL ACTIVITY TYPE / INTENSITY TYPE DEGREE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE QUIETNESS FEATURES CONTEXT (AWAY / NEAR) OTHER PARTICIPANTS TYPE OF PROGRAMME (AIMS, OBJECTIVES, ETC.) MOTIVATIONS FULFILMENT PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION PERCEPTIONS OF SELF SOCIAL IDENTITY PHYSICAL ABILITY MENTAL HEALTH SOCIAL FUNCTION PHYSICAL HEALTH QUALITY OF LIFE OTHER ACTIVITIES
- 7. Seeing is Believing Randomised, controlled study Measuring impact of visualisation on knowledge and risk perception Quota sample, using online market research panel (926 participants)
- 9. Working Group II Report impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability ! Chapter 8 Human Health
- 11. FLOODS AND STORMS HEALTH IMPACTS FLOOD CAUSES GLOBAL TRENDS CLIMATE CHANGE The majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing temperatures to rise around the world. As these higher temperatures free water that is usually frozen at the poles, sea levels are rising. Increased temeratures also lead to more evaporation of water from seas and lakes. This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms, cyclones and extreme weather events. STORMS URBANISATION The number of people living in cities is growing, particularly in low income countries. 1900 1950 2005 SEA LEVEL RAINFALL EVAPORATION SURFACE DEATH & INJURY VENEZUELA MOZAMBIQUE CHINA 1999 2000/2001 2003 30,000 DEAD 1,813 DEAD 130m AFFECTED CASE STUDY 1: BANGLADESH If human activity continues to warm global temperatures, countries like Bangladesh are likely to see more flooding. ASSUMPTIONS Global temperature rise Global Sea level rise Increase in monsoon rains Increase in monsoon discharge into rivers People affected Flooding depth 2°c 30cm 18% 5% 4.8% 30–90cm 4°c 100cm 33% 10% 57% 90–180cm INFECTIOUS DISEASES RUN-OFF = 100m people in towns or cities LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY TOXIC CON-TAMINATION MENTAL HEALTH CASE STUDY 2: USA Studies in industrialised countries indicate that densely populated urban areas are at risk from sea-level rise. FUTURE CHANGES FLOODS Coastal regions are more vulnerable to flooding as sea levels rise. Extreme rainfall can overwhelm rivers and lakes, causing them to flood. Drowning by storm surge is the major killer in coastal storms. Global warming and changes in land use (like urbanisation) affect how much water is carried in the air. Urbanisation can affect how much excess water can be absorbed into the ground. Sometimes, the shape of the land can make areas vulnerable to flooding. Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation. Floods are the most frequent natural weather disaster. This information graphic shows some of the causes and health impacts of floods, and shows how the number and severity of floods may increase in the future. LATIN AMERICA SOUTH ASIA MICRONESIA BAY OF BENGAL (particularly at risk from storm surges) VULNERABLE PEOPLE Those living in Low lying places (especially those with high density) One-quarter of the world’s population resides within 100 km distance and 100 m elevation of the coastline. In the USA, lower-income groups were most affected by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Such as children, the infirm, or those living in sub-standard housing. Poorer communities Those with limited ability to escape VULNERABLE PLACES THE NORTH SEA COAST SEYCHELLES THE GULF COAST THE NILE DELTA GULF OF GUINEA Deaths recorded in disaster databases are from drowning and severe injuries. Improved warnings have decreased mortality from floods and storm surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact of weather disasters in terms of social and health effects is still considerable and is unequally distributed, particularly affecting women. Particularly in places with poor sanitation: From storage or from chemicals already in the environment: Insufficiently investigated, but may include: Diarrhoeal diseases Cholera Cryptosporidiosis Typhoid fever Oil Pesticides Heavy metals Hazardous waste Post-traumatic stress Behavioural disorders in children Anxiety? Depression? LIKELY EFFECTS NEW ORLEANS (USA) Mid-range estimate of 48 cm sea level rise by 2100 plus subsidence 2.5–4m below sea level by 2100 1.5–3m below sea level now This would mean that a storm surge from a Category 3 hurricane (estimated at 3 to 4 m without waves) could be 6 to 7 m above areas that were heavily populated in 2004.
- 12. FLOODS AND STORMS HEALTH IMPACTS FLOOD CAUSES GLOBAL TRENDS CLIMATE CHANGE The majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing temperatures to rise around the world. As these higher temperatures free water that is usually frozen at the poles, sea levels are rising. Increased temeratures also lead to more evaporation of water from seas and lakes. This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms, cyclones and extreme weather events. STORMS URBANISATION The number of people living in cities is growing, particularly in low income countries. 1900 1950 2005 SEA LEVEL RAINFALL EVAPORATION SURFACE DEATH & INJURY VENEZUELA MOZAMBIQUE CHINA 1999 2000/2001 2003 30,000 DEAD 1,813 DEAD 130m AFFECTED CASE STUDY 1: BANGLADESH If human activity continues to warm global temperatures, countries like Bangladesh are likely to see more flooding. ASSUMPTIONS Global temperature rise Global Sea level rise Increase in monsoon rains Increase in monsoon discharge into rivers People affected Flooding depth 2°c 30cm 18% 5% 4.8% 30–90cm 4°c 100cm 33% 10% 57% 90–180cm INFECTIOUS DISEASES RUN-OFF = 100m people in towns or cities LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY TOXIC CON-TAMINATION MENTAL HEALTH CASE STUDY 2: USA Studies in industrialised countries indicate that densely populated urban areas are at risk from sea-level rise. FUTURE CHANGES FLOODS Coastal regions are more vulnerable to flooding as sea levels rise. Extreme rainfall can overwhelm rivers and lakes, causing them to flood. Drowning by storm surge is the major killer in coastal storms. Global warming and changes in land use (like urbanisation) affect how much water is carried in the air. Urbanisation can affect how much excess water can be absorbed into the ground. Sometimes, the shape of the land can make areas vulnerable to flooding. Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation. Floods are the most frequent natural weather disaster. This information graphic shows some of the causes and health impacts of floods, and shows how the number and severity of floods may increase in the future. LATIN AMERICA SOUTH ASIA MICRONESIA BAY OF BENGAL (particularly at risk from storm surges) VULNERABLE PEOPLE Those living in Low lying places (especially those with high density) One-quarter of the world’s population resides within 100 km distance and 100 m elevation of the coastline. In the USA, lower-income groups were most affected by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Such as children, the infirm, or those living in sub-standard housing. Poorer communities Those with limited ability to escape VULNERABLE PLACES THE NORTH SEA COAST SEYCHELLES THE GULF COAST THE NILE DELTA GULF OF GUINEA Deaths recorded in disaster databases are from drowning and severe injuries. Improved warnings have decreased mortality from floods and storm surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact of weather disasters in terms of social and health effects is still considerable and is unequally distributed, particularly affecting women. Particularly in places with poor sanitation: From storage or from chemicals already in the environment: Insufficiently investigated, but may include: Diarrhoeal diseases Cholera Cryptosporidiosis Typhoid fever Oil Pesticides Heavy metals Hazardous waste Post-traumatic stress Behavioural disorders in children Anxiety? Depression? LIKELY EFFECTS NEW ORLEANS (USA) Mid-range estimate of 48 cm sea level rise by 2100 plus subsidence 2.5–4m below sea level by 2100 1.5–3m below sea level now This would mean that a storm surge from a Category 3 hurricane (estimated at 3 to 4 m without waves) could be 6 to 7 m above areas that were heavily populated in 2004. This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms, cyclones and extreme weather events. HEALTH IMPACTS FLOOD CAUSES GLOBAL STORMS 1900 1950 2005 SEA LEVEL RAINFALL EVAPORATION SURFACE One-quarter world’s resides distance elevation coastline. In the USA, groups affected Katrina Such as infirm, or in sub-standard Poorer DEATH & INJURY INFECTIOUS DISEASES RUN-OFF TOXIC CON-TAMINATION FLOODS Coastal regions are more vulnerable to flooding as sea levels rise. Extreme rainfall can overwhelm rivers and lakes, causing them to flood. Drowning by storm surge is the major killer in coastal storms. Global warming and changes in land use (like urbanisation) affect how much water is carried in the air. Urbanisation can affect how much excess water can be absorbed into the ground. LATIN AMERICA SOUTH ASIA MICRONESIA BAY OF BENGAL (particularly at risk from storm surges) VULNERABLE PEOPLE Those living in Low lying places (especially those with high density) communities Those with limited ability to escape VULNERABLE PLACES THE NORTH SEA COAST SEYCHELLES THE GULF COAST THE NILE DELTA GULF OF GUINEA Deaths recorded in disaster databases are from drowning and severe injuries. VENEZUELA 1999 MOZAMBIQUE 2000/2001 CHINA 2003 30,000 DEAD 1,813 DEAD 130m AFFECTED Particularly in places with poor sanitation: From storage or from chemicals already in the Diarrhoeal environment: diseases Oil Cholera Pesticides
- 17. KEY MEAN & 95% CI ANOVA SIGNIFICANT (P < 0.05) ANOVA NOT SIGNIFICANT (P > 0.05) CONTROL CONDITION TEXT CONDITION GRAPHIC CONDITION
- 18. 6 5 4 3 RISK GROUP 1: STORMS & FLOODS RISK GROUP 2: AIR QUALITY d mean approval KEY MEAN & 95% CI ANOVA SIGNIFICANT (P < 0.05) ANOVA NOT SIGNIFICANT (P > 0.05) CONTROL CONDITION TEXT CONDITION GRAPHIC CONDITION
- 19. a b 6 mins 3 mins RISK GROUP 1: STORMS & FLOODS RISK GROUP 2: AIR QUALITY mean view time (log10) KEY MEAN & 95% CI ANOVA SIGNIFICANT (P < 0.05) ANOVA NOT SIGNIFICANT (P > 0.05) CONTROL CONDITION TEXT CONDITION GRAPHIC CONDITION
- 20. 80% 70% 60% RISK GROUP 1: STORMS & FLOODS RISK GROUP 2: AIR QUALITY d mean knowledge KEY MEAN & 95% CI ANOVA SIGNIFICANT (P < 0.05) ANOVA NOT SIGNIFICANT (P > 0.05) CONTROL CONDITION TEXT CONDITION GRAPHIC CONDITION
- 21. 28 21 14 RISK GROUP 1: STORMS & FLOODS RISK GROUP 2: AIR QUALITY c mean risk perception KEY MEAN & 95% CI ANOVA SIGNIFICANT (P < 0.05) ANOVA NOT SIGNIFICANT (P > 0.05) CONTROL CONDITION TEXT CONDITION GRAPHIC CONDITION
- 23. KEY MEAN & 95% CI ANOVA SIGNIFICANT (P < 0.05) ANOVA NOT SIGNIFICANT (P > 0.05) CONTROL CONDITION TEXT CONDITION GRAPHIC CONDITION mean knowledge (baseline)
- 24. mean knowledge KEY MEAN & 95% CI ANOVA SIGNIFICANT (P < 0.05) ANOVA NOT SIGNIFICANT (P > 0.05) CONTROL CONDITION TEXT CONDITION GRAPHIC CONDITION (time 2)
- 25. KEY MEAN & 95% CI ANOVA SIGNIFICANT (P < 0.05) ANOVA NOT SIGNIFICANT (P > 0.05) CONTROL CONDITION TEXT CONDITION GRAPHIC CONDITION mean risk perception (baseline)
- 26. KEY MEAN & 95% CI ANOVA SIGNIFICANT (P < 0.05) ANOVA NOT SIGNIFICANT (P > 0.05) CONTROL CONDITION TEXT CONDITION GRAPHIC CONDITION mean risk perception (time 2)
- 27. control text graphic Mean knowledge 80% 70% 60% 50% Error Bars: 95% CI Age group: 18-27 28-37 38-47 48-57 58-67 68-77 18-27 28-37 38-47 48-57 58-67 68-77 18-27 28-37 38-47 48-57 58-67 68-77
- 28. Conclusions - This type of box / arrow diagram can be used to communicate information on climate change health impacts in less time and more effectively than using text, for this audience. - The technique might be used to effectively present other non-linear narratives. - Non-linear information graphics like this could be particularly useful for younger audiences - The study suggests that understanding the mechanisms for climate change health impacts could increase risk awareness.
- 29. Limitations -Questions asked only test limited knowledge. -Captive audience - doesn’t investigate whether information graphics also attract attention. -Higher drop-out in experimental conditions. – More in high socio-economic status groups than national average – Only surveys internet users
- 30. Software: Presentation software Illustrator InDesign ! Premiere Flash ! Processing / D3 PhP / HTML5 Other programming languages Stills { }Motion Interactive {
- 32. Stahl- Timmins, W.; Pitt, M. & Peters, J. 2010. Graphical presentation of data for health policy decisions: An exploratory online decision task experiment to measure effectiveness. Information Design Journal 18:3.
- 46. Dr Will Stahl-Timmins blog.willstahl.com Twitter: @will_s_t www.thebmj.com