1 a One Page Research Summary & Citations.pdf

1 a One Page Research Summary & Citations.pdf

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  LARRY R FRANKSR., RESEARCH CITATIONS SUMMARY The sequence of academic research papers, following peer review, and academic discussions during Academy of Financial Services presentations, represent the growth of insights that followed each iteration to build on prior research to push those insights into subsequent new understanding as research progressed over time. Later papers hold more current insights which matured with each research project, for withdrawals from retirement savings to prudently support supplemental retirement income. Is there a difference between retirement income withdrawal rates? What value serves best as a control variable while comparing portfolio allocations? While comparing time periods? Does the act of aging in retirement actually best compare time modeling time periods by counting time up (shorter time periods to longer), or counting time down (from longer time periods to shorter)? How does one model, differentiate, and optimize between both 1) portfolio allocation statistics, and 2) longevity statistics, when computing and comparing both 1) allocation choices combined with 2) aging as one slowly ages with time? The main findings are that there exists a three-dimensional (3-D) relationship between 1) allocation statistics (with more optimal allocation mixtures (NOT to be construed to mean more or less aggressive – but optimal mixes for all allocations, each optimized with its’ own risk tolerance); z-axis, 2) time, but NOT counting time-periods UP (as is common convention when counting), but counting time-periods DOWN to best represent AGING; x- axis, and 3) corresponding withdrawal/drawdown rates expressed as a percentage of retirement assets; y-axis. The control variable, the iteration failure rate (IFR), comes from running Stochastic simulations which are better for time-dependent probabilities for systems that change over time, unlike Monte Carlo methods (which label probability of failure/success as the outcome). The IFR as the control variable, allows for comparison of both sets of statistics for 1) portfolio statistics, and 2) longevity statistics. Modeling “real people” as they age outcomes illustrated in “Prototype software example of aging model incorporating both portfolio and longevity percentile statistics along with consumer spending trend line.” The "Longevity Bow Wave" as one ages in retirement illustrated (see slide 5). Retirement income planning is NOT static. Time frames change with age. Research finds that the optimal allocation also changes with age (less and less risky) when time frames are counted DOWN to represent longevity statistics correlating to aging. Papers:
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  Source: Frank Sr., LarryR., April 2022. “What are the Three Paradigms of Retirement Income Planning?” Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies 5 (4): 953-983.
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  LARRY R FRANKSR., RESEARCH CITATIONS SUMMARY 1) Frank Sr., Larry R., April 2022. “What are the Three Paradigms of Retirement Income Planning?” Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies 5 (4): 953-983. Working paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=4061253 2) Frank Sr., Larry R., March 2022. “Just Imagine Financial Planning Software That Does This.” Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies 5 (3): 700-720. Working paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=4046315 3) Frank, Larry R., and Shawn Brayman. November 2016. “Combining Stochastic Simulations and Actuarial Withdrawals into One Model.” Journal of Financial Planning 29 (11): 44–53. Working paper: “Certainty of Lifestyle: Contrasting a Simulation Over a Fixed Period versus Multiple Period Models.”Presented at 2016 Academy of Financial Services annual meeting, Las Vegas, Nevada (Session 3E1). Won the 2016 annual meeting “Best Paper” award sponsored by the CFP® Board of Standards. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2769010 4) Frank, Larry R., John Mitchell, and Wade Pfau. April 2014. “Lifetime Expected Income Breakeven Comparison between SPIAs and Managed Portfolios.” Journal of Financial Planning 27 (4) 38-47. Working paper: “Lifetime Expected Income Breakeven Comparison between SPIAs and Managed Portfolios.” Data: http://ssrn.com/abstract= 2317857 Summary : https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2352252. Presented at 2014 Academy of Financial Services annual meeting, Chicago, Illinois (Session G3). “Lifetime Expected Income Comparison between SPIAs and an Age-Based, Three- Dimensional, Universal Distribution Model.” 5) Frank, Larry R., John B. Mitchell, and David M. Blanchett. December 2012. “Transition through Old Age in a Dynamic Retirement Distribution Model.”Journal of Financial Planning 25 (12): 42–50. Working paper: “Transition to Old Age (Superannuation) in a 3- D, Age Based, Dynamic, Serially Connected and Annually Recalculated Retirement Distribution Model.” https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2050003. Presented at 2012 Academy of Financial Services annual meeting, San Antonio, Texas (Session E3). “Retirement Distributions: Retiree Transition from Young, through Very Elderly Superannuated Ages. An Age Based, 3-D Dynamic Distribution Model.” 6) Frank, Larry R., John B. Mitchell, and David M. Blanchett. March 2012. “An Age-Based, Three-Dimensional Distribution Model Incorporating Sequence and Longevity Risks.” Journal of Financial Planning 25 (3): 52–60. Working paper: “An Age-Based, Three Dimensional, Universal Distribution Model Incorporating Sequence Risk.”
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  LARRY R FRANKSR., RESEARCH CITATIONS SUMMARY https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1849983. Presented at 2011 Academy of Financial Services annual meeting, Las Vegas, Nevada (Session A1). “An Age-Based, Three- Dimensional, Universal Distribution Model Incorporating Sequence Risk.” 7) Frank, Larry R., John B. Mitchell, and David M. Blanchett, November 2011. “Probability- of-Failure-Based Decision Rules to Manage Sequence Risk in Retirement.” Journal of Financial Planning 24 (11): 44–53. Working paper: “Sequence Risk: Managing Retiree Exposure to Sequence Risk Through Probability of Failure Based Decision Rules.” https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1849868. Presented at 2010 Academy of Financial Services annual meeting, Anaheim, California (Session 1D). “Sequence Risk: Managing Retiree Exposure to Sequence Risk Through Probability of Failure Based Decision Rules.” 8) Frank, Larry R., and David M. Blanchett. June 2010. “The Dynamic Implications of Sequence Risk on a Distribution Portfolio.”Journal of Financial Planning 23, 6: 52–61. 9) Blanchett, David M., and Larry R. Frank. April 2009. “A Dynamic and Adaptive Approach to Distribution Planning and Monitoring.” Journal of Financial Planning 22, 4: 52–66. 10)Frank Sr., Larry R. Working paper: “In Search of the Numbers; A Practical Application of Withdrawal Rate Research For Pre-Retirees and its Possible Implications.” https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1488130. Presented at 2009 Academy of Financial Services annual meeting, Anaheim, California (Session 3B). Google Scholar Publication References: Google Scholar Search by Name "Larry R Frank Sr" Book: Frank Sr., Larry R. 2005. “Wealth Odyssey: The Essential Road Map For Your Financial Journey. Where Is It You Are Really Trying To Go With Money?” iUniverse (Amazon all formats) (Google Audiobooks) Article: Frank, Larry, June 5, 2023. “Ageism Affects Retirement Income Planning. The current models shortchange retired clients of cash flow the older they get.”Rethinking65 online magazine https://rethinking65.com/ageism-affects-retirement-income-planning/ Links also found at https://www.linkedin.com/in/larryfranksr/details/publications/