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2014: Post Election Analysis
- 1. 2014: Post Election Analysis
- 2. ELECTION OVERVIEW 2 v Context v The Results: What happened? v The Reasons: Why it happened? v The Future: What does it mean going forward?
- 3. Mood Of The Country
- 4. DESPITE IMPROVING ECONOMY… 8 Unemployment rate 9.5% (Sept.) 7.8% 5.9% 2010 2012 2014 1,184 S&P 500 1,417 1,981 2010 2012 2014 S&P/Case-‐Shiller U.S. Home Price Index 146 (Aug.) 145 168 2010 2012 2014 Nov. 1 Nov. 5 Oct. 29 Source: Pew Research Center, October 30, 2014
- 5. Will get better 4 …PERCEPTION ECONOMY IS STAYING THE SAME During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Will stay the same Will get worse 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, October 8-‐12, 2014 Note: “Unsure/Refused” results are not shown. 45% 38% 32% 31% 27% 17% 23% 29% 26% 26% 27% 27% 28% 9% 28% 18% 21% 24% 42% 34% 24% 25% 26% 24% 20% 24% 34% 33% 49% 47% 48% 38% 42% 46% 48% 47% 48% 51% 46% 0% Oct 2012 Dec 2012 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Sept 2013 Oct 2013 Oct 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 Jun 2014 Sept 2014 Oct 2014
- 6. AND AMERICANS REMAIN IN A FUNK 8 65% 61% 63% 29% 32% 30% Dissatisfied Oct. 2014 Oct. 2012 Oct. 2010 Satisfied % who are … with the way things are going in this country today 33% 44% 54% 21% 13% 8% Poor Oct. 2014 Oct. 2012 Oct. 2010 Excellent/good % saying the nation’s economic conditions are… Source: Pew Research Center, October 30, 2014
- 7. AND MORE SO IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES 8 Arkansas 22% 74% 32% 59% Colorado 32% 62% Florida 32% 66% Georgia 31% 65% Iowa Kansas 23% 73% North Carolina 28% 68% 30% 68% Virginia Generally going in the right direction Seriously off on the wrong track Do you think things in this country today are: Source: 2014 Exit Polls
- 8. OBAMA STILL MORE POPULAR THAN CONGRESSIONAL PARTIES, BUT NOT BY MUCH Favorability 6 43% 42% Job Approval Source: Exit Poll Data, ABC News/Washington Post Poll, Oct 23-‐26, 2014, CBS News Poll, Oct 23-‐27, 2014 44% 29% 21% 44% Democratic Party Republican Party Barack Obama
- 9. MORE AMERICANS FOLLOWED NEWS ABOUT EBOLA THAN THIS YEAR’S POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS 8 Extremely/very closely News about Ebola Source: 2014 Exit Poll Data 59% 51% This year's political campaign
- 10. The Results: What Happened
- 11. SENATE: PRE-‐ELECTION – RACES IN PLAY Democrats: 53* Republicans: 45 OR AK KY NM MN CO GA NC Source: CNN 10 *Two independents caucus with Democrats
- 12. SENATE: POST-‐ELECTION – REPS GAIN SEVEN SEATS SO FAR Democrats: 45 Republicans: 52 OR AK KY NM MN CO GA NC Ernst (R): 52% NH Braley(D-‐i): 44% Cotton (R): 57% Pryor(D-‐i): 39% Tillis(R): 49% Hagan(D-‐i): 47% Source: CNN 11 Gardner (R): 50% Udall (D-‐i): 45% Sullivan (R): 49% Begich (D-‐i): 45% Rounds(R): 51% Weiland (D): 29% Capito (R): 62% Tennant (D): 34% Landrieu (D): 42% Cassidy (R): 41% RUN OFF Daines (R): 58% Curtis(D): 40% Warner(D-‐i): 49% Gillespie (R): 48%
- 13. HOUSE OVERVIEW: OVERALL 9 SEAT REPUBLICAN GAIN SO FAR – WILL PROBABLY INCREASE 10 2012 Democrats Republicans Pre-‐Elec(on 193 242 Gains / Losses +8 -‐8 Results 201 234 2014 Democrats Republicans Pre-‐Elec(on 199* 233* Results** 174 242 Source: CNN **19 RACES STILL UNDECIDED *Does not add up to 435 due to vacancies
- 14. GUBERNATORIAL RACES IN PLAY OR AK KY NM MN CO GA NC Source: CNN 13 36 governorships contested
- 15. GUBERNATORIAL PARTY SHIFTS OR AK Wolf (D): 55% Corbett (R): 45% KY NM MN CO GA NC Source: CNN 14 Rauner (R): 51% Quinn (D-‐i): 46% *Dark Gray indicates too-‐close-‐to-‐call races Walker (I): 48% Parnell (R): 47% Hutchinson (R): 55% Ross (D): 42% Shumlin (D-‐i): 47% Miln (R): 45% Hogan (R): 54% Brown (D): 45% Baker (R): 48% Coakley (D): 47%
- 16. INCUMBENT SCORECARD 9 House Members Senators Governors Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Steve Southerland (R-‐FL) Joe Garcia (D-‐FL) Mark Pryor (D-‐AR) Tom Corbett (R-‐PA) Pat Quinn (D-‐IL) Vance McAllister (R-‐ LA) John Barrow (D-‐GA) Mark Udall (D-‐CO) Bill Enyart (D-‐IL) Kay Hagan (D –NC) Brad Schneider (D-‐ IL) Mary Landrieu (D – LA)* Steven Horsford (D-‐ NV) Carol Shea-‐Porter (D-‐NH) Tim Bishop (D-‐NY) Dan Maffei (D-‐NY) Pete Gallego (D-‐TX) Nick Rahall (D-‐WV) Source: NPR *Forced into a run-‐off elec(on
- 17. The Reasons: Why it Happened
- 18. “THE ECONOMY” IS #1 ISSUE AND FAVORS REPUBLICANS 13 Economy Source: 2014 Exit polls 45% (+2) Health Care 25% (+20) Illegal Immigra(on 14% (+48) Foreign Policy 13% (+12)
- 19. VOTERS ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF THE ECONOMY Very worried 37% Not at all worried Not too worried 18% Somewhat worried 41% 4% 18 How worried are you about the direction of the nation’s economy in the next year? 78% are somewhat or very worried Source: 2014 Exit polls
- 20. VOTERS ARE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE LIVES OF THE NEXT GENERATION OF AMERICANS 19 Do you expect life for the next generation of Americans to be: 22% 27% 48% Better than life today About the same Worse than life today Total Dem Rep Better than life today 22% 68% 31% Worse than life today 48% 29% 68% About the same 27% 60% 39% Source: 2014 Exit polls
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- 22. 17 WE’VE BEEN HERE BEFORE: OBAMA IN SIMILAR SITUATION AS HIS PREDECESSOR AT SECOND MID-‐TERM ELECTION 63% 63% Job Approval Ra(ngs for Prior Presidents in October of Second Year of 2nd Term 57% 42% 37% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Clinton (1998) Reagan (1986) Eisenhower (1958) Obama (2014) G.W. Bush (2006) Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
- 23. OR WERE WE HERE BEFORE: 2014 LOOKS A LOT LIKE 2010 18 2006 (Bush) Source: 2006, 2010 & 2014 exit polls vs. 2014 (Obama) Vote In Opposi(on To Sicng President Vote In Support Of Sicng President Job Approval Of Sicng President 33% 19% 44% 36% 22% 43% 2010 (Obama) 37% 24% 45%
- 24. OBAMA’S UNPOPULARITY DRAGS DOWN DEMOCRATS 36 Source: NBC News Obama Approval Dem % of vote Difference Who Won Illinois 50% 53% 3 Democrat Michigan 50% 55% 5 Democrat Minnesota 47% 53% 6 Democrat Maine 47% 32% -‐15 Republican North Carolina 43% 47% 4 Republican Georgia 43% 45% 2 Republican New Hampshire 43% 52% 9 Democrat Colorado 43% 45% 2 Republican South Carolina 42% 39% -‐3 Republican Virginia 40% 49% 9 Democrat Iowa 39% 44% 5 Republican Mississippi 38% 39% 1 Republican Kentucky 35% 41% 6 Republican South Dakota 345 29% -‐5 Republican Arkansas 31% 39% 8 Republican
- 25. SENATE VOTE: FOR OBAMA OR AGAINST HIM 19 19% 19% 9% 10% 15% 18% 18% 8% 11% 10% 5% 19% 14% US Alaska Arkansas Georgia Iowa Kansas Louisiana Michigan Colorado North Carolina New Hampshire Kentucky West Virginia 33% 40% 31% 36% 30% 29% 43% 37% 40% 47% 34% 43% 32% -‐14 -‐22 -‐30 -‐17 -‐17 -‐35 -‐25 -‐12 -‐18 -‐18 -‐20 -‐30 -‐42 Vote In Opposition To Obama Vote To Support Obama Net Source: 2014 Exit Poll Data
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- 27. ALMOST EIGHT IN TEN VOTERS SELDOM OR NEVER TRUST THE GOVERNMENT TO DO WHAT IS RIGHT 26 How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington Just about always, 3% Most of the time, 17% Only some of the time, 60% Never, 18% to do what is right? 79% trust the government at most only some of the time Source: MSNBC 2010 Exit Poll Data
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- 29. PRELIMINARY TURNOUT NUMBERS ARE WAY DOWN FROM 2010 AND 2012 28 64% 40.9% 58% 36.6%* 2008 2010 2012 2014 *2014 number is an estimate Source: Five Thirty Eight
- 30. TURNOUT INCREASED IN SOME COMPETITIVE STATES BUT DECREASED IN OTHERS 29 Source: Five Thirty Eight
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- 32. ELECTORATE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND LESS MODERATE THAN ELECTIONS IN RECENT HISTORY 23 49% 53% 51% 50% 47% 48% 45% 46% 49% 46% Source: TargetPointConsul(ng.com – Exit Poll Data, November 3, 2010 47% 50% 50% 49% 45% 48% 44% 39% 41% 40% 32% 30% 32% 28% 36% 35% 33% 34% 30% 36% 34% 31% 29% 34% 33% 32% 34% 41% 35% 37% 20% 17% 17% 18% 17% 17% 18% 19% 21% 18% 20% 19% 20% 17% 21% 20% 22% 20% 25% 23% Moderates Conservatives Liberals
- 33. SLIGHT REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGE Source: 2014 Exit Polls 25 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Democrat 37% 38% 39% 36% 38% 35% Independent 26% 26% 29% 28% 29% 28% Republican 37% 36% 32% 36% 32% 36% Party Split Even D+2 D+7 Even D+6 R+1
- 34. SIGNIFICANTLY OLDER ELECTORATE. SENIORS SWUNG TO REPUBLICAN PARTY While youth vote remained Democratic, young voters largely stayed home 27 Source: 2014 Exit polls Under 30 Vote 2008 (18%) 2010 (11%) 2012 (19%) 2014 (13%) Democratic 63% 57% 60% 54% Republican 34% 40% 37% 43% Spread D+29 D+17 D+23 D+11 65+ Vote 2008 (15%) 2010 (23%) 2012 (16%) 2014 (22%) Democratic 49% 38% 44% 42% Republican 48% 59% 56% 57% Spread D+1 R+21 R+12 R+15 Large senior vote went Republican
- 35. Source: 2014 Exit polls 32 MINORITY TURNOUT DOWN AS WELL Race Breakdown 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 White 77% 79% 74% 78% 72% 75% Black 12% 10% 13% 10% 13% 12% Hispanic/ LaLno 8% 8% 8% 8% 10% 8% LaLno House Vote 62% DemocraLc 36% Republican
- 36. TEA PARTY PLAYS ROLE IN ELECTIONS <33 Source: 2014 Exit polls 32 Overall U.S. Tea Party Support: 33% New Hampshire 30%* California 28% Arkansas 33%* 33+ South Carolina 41%* Louisiana 37%* Iowa 36%* Mississippi 36%* Georgia 36%* New York 35% Kansas 33%* Kentucky 33%* *Denotes 2014 Senate Race Exit Poll Data
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- 38. ELECTORAL MAP FAVORED REPUBLICANS 8 2012 Presidential results 2014 Senate map had many Democrats defending seats in “red” states
- 39. What The Public Wants?
- 40. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS 2004 2008 2012 2014 Government should do more to solve problems 46% 51% 43% 41% Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals 49% 43% 51% 54% Source: 2014 Exit Polls 39 Views of Government
- 41. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS Affordable Care Act Do you think the 2010 Federal Health Care Law: Source: 2014 Exit Polls 40 25% 21% 48% Did not go far enough Was about right Went too far
- 42. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS Climate Change Do you think climate change, also known as global warming, is a serious problem? Source: 2014 Exit Polls 41 40% Yes 58% No 40% DEM REP Yes 70% 29% No 14% 84%
- 43. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS 2012 2014 Offered a chance to apply for legal status 65% 57% Deported to the country they came from 28% 39% ImmigraLon Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be: Source: 2014 Exit Polls 42
- 44. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS AborLon Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be… Source: 2014 Exit Polls 43 23% 29% 26% 17% Legal in all cases Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases Illegal in all cases 52%
- 45. Looking Forward to 2016
- 46. LOOKING FORWARD: WHAT’S AT STAKE IN 2016 45 Democrats will afempt to retain control of the White House. Candidates will seek to become the 45th president of the United States. All 435 seats will be up for election once again. Senate: House: Republicans Democrats 52* 45* +7 -‐ 34 seats will be contested. Republicans will be defending 24 of those seats while Democrats will be defending 10. Presidency: *Does not add up to 100 because three races are still undecided
- 47. 40 For more informa(on, please contact: Jason Boxt ([email protected])