COLORADO SECRETARY OF STATE QUARTERLY BUSINESS & ECONOMIC INDICATORS First Quarter 2015

COLORADO SECRETARY OF STATE QUARTERLY BUSINESS & ECONOMIC INDICATORS First Quarter 2015

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  Note: Solid linedisplays actual seasonally adjusted employment numbers; dotted line reflects calculated forecasts. Source: Seasonally adjusted. Colorado total nonfarm employees from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES), calculations by BRD research team. Employment and New Entity Filings • New business filings continue to increase, albeit at a slower pace following the filing fee reduction in Q3 2014. • Employment projected to continue expanding in Q2 2015 and Q3 2015 overall, but at a slightly slower pace. • Current Colorado economic indicators continue to show strong growth. • National growth slowed in the latest data for employment and GDP. • Year-over-year new business filings, existing entity renewals, and trade names all increased. COLORADO SECRETARY O F STATE QUARTERLY BUSINESS & ECONOMIC INDICATORS First Quarter 2015 Secretary of State Business Filings Q1 2015 Data Analysis Summary INDICATORS Employment (SA) vs. prior quarter vs. prior year New Entity Filings EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS Q2 2015 vs. Q1 2015 Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Q3 2015 vs. Q3 2014 Wayne W. Williams Colorado Secretary of State 1700 Broadway, Suite 200 Denver, CO 80290 www.sos.state.co.us The Secretary of State’s office works to grow commerce and foster political freedom by building trust, instilling confidence, and offering innovative, value-driven solutions. vs. prior quarter vs. prior year Unemployment vs. prior quarter vs. prior year Existing Entity Renewals vs. prior quarter vs. prior year
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  The Quarterly Business& Economic Indicators, produced by the Business Research Division (BRD) on behalf of the Colorado Secretary of State, reports on the correlations between various business filing data and economic metrics. The Business Research Division (BRD) of the Leeds School of Business conducts marketing and economic impact studies and customized research projects that assist companies, associations, nonprofits, and governmental agencies with making sound business and policy decisions. Visit leeds.colorado.edu/brd to learn more. Copyright © 2015. Business Research Division, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder, and the Colorado Department of State. Business formation steady. The state recorded year-over-year growth in new entity filings, existing entity renewals, trade names, and entities in good standing in the first quarter of 2015. A total of 103,719 businesses were formed in the 12-month period ending in March. Quarterly existing entity renewals spiked in Q1 to a record 126,282.The number of entities in good standing ticked up 7% compared to a year prior. Job growth rooted in new entity filing activity. Business formation in the first quarter indicates the state will experience employment expansions in Q2 and Q3 2015. Colorado business leaders weigh in. Confidence among state business leaders continued its streak of stability looking ahead of Q2 2015. Sales and hiring expectations contributed the greatest boosts in optimism. Economic activity stable. Real GDP expanded by 2.2% in Q4 2014 after spiking 5% in the prior quarter. Personal consumption expenditures and residential fixed investment provided the two largest contributions to GDP growth last quarter. A total of 591,000 jobs were added in the United States in Q1 (126,000 in March), and unemployment held steady, at 5.5%. Total wages expanded by 5% in the third quarter of 2014 (most recent data available), and according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, jobless rates were down year- over-year in 366 of 387 U.S. metro areas in February 2015. Consumers got an extra boost from low gasoline prices driven off the steep decline in crude oil. January seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales increased 3.6% year-over-year; sales at gasoline stations were down 24.1%. Core inflation (all items less food and energy) remained muted in February, rising 0.2%, while the energy index picked up, increasing 1%. The Colorado economy continues to gain ground. Colorado employment totaled 67,700 more jobs in March 2015 compared to March 2014. Preliminary numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that total wages for the state increased 6.8% year-over-year in Q3 2014, following growth rates of 7.5% and 6.5% in the first two quarters of the year—the fastest three quarters of annual growth in nine years. Residential construction increased 9% nationally based on Census building permit data through February 2015. Residential construction in Colorado slowed in the first two months of 2015, with permits declining 9.3% compared to January and February 2014. Home prices in Colorado keep the state in the top five for appreciation year- over-year. 2 Secretary of State Business Filings Q1 2015 Data Analysis Summary COLORADO SECRETARY OF STATE QUARTERLY BUSINESS & ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q1 2015
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  COLORADO SECRETARY OFSTATE QUARTERLY BUSINESS & ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q1 2015 Business Filings Overview Colorado sees steady growth in business formation in Q1. A total of 28,115 businesses were formed in the state in Q1 2015 compared to 26,523 in Q1 2014 (6%). A 12-month trailing sum of new entity filings increased by 15.7%, buoyed by particularly strong growth in January (10,247 filings). Existing entity renewals picked up slightly in the first quarter, expanding by 6.9%, to 126,282, after slowing in Q4 with a total of 107,851 filings. A 12-month trailing sum of renewals increased at a rate of 7.4%. Dissolution filings increased 11.6% year-over- year following a 6% rise last quarter.Trademark filings fell 5.8% in Q1, while trade name filings inched forward 0.7%.The total number of entities in good standing stood at 571,386 in Q1 2015. 3 Existing Entity Renewals and New Entity Filings
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  New Entity Filings& Existing Entity Renewals Business formation expands in Q1. A total of 28,115 establishments were formed in Q1 2015. While new business filings exhibit seasonal fluctuation, a 12-month trailing total of new entity filings increased by 15.7% year-over-year and 1.6% over the prior quarter.The two largest increases were in other entity types, up 7.1% year-over-year, and domestic limited liability companies, up 6.3% year-over-year. Record number of existing entity renewals. Examining data back to 1990, the state reached a record high in the total number of existing entity renewals in Q1 2015 (126,282). Business renewals increased at an annual rate of 6.9% and over the past five years rose at a compound annual growth rate of 4.8%.The number of nonprofit corporations that filed renewals in Q1 increased to 11,605 compared to 9,703 the previous quarter. The number of entities in good standing holds steady. Annual growth in the number of Colorado entities in good standing increased in the first quarter to a total of 571,386 (7% year-over-year). Limited liability companies and foreign entities recorded the largest annual gain in good standing—up 9.3% and 7.1%, respectively. 4 COLORADO SECRETARY OF STATE QUARTERLY BUSINESS & ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q1 2015 New Entity Filings Existing Entity Renewals Entities in Good Standing
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  Dissolutions,Trade Names, & Trademarks 5 COLORADOSECRETARY OF STATE QUARTERLY BUSINESS & ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q1 2015 Moderated growth in dissolution filings. Dissolution filings rose 11.6% year-over-year as a total of 6,474 business dissolved in the quarter ending in March. This figure is subject to the fact that businesses do not always voluntarily dissolve without delay, and dissolution filings often lag the actual business dissolution.The five-year compound annual growth rate for dissolution filings increased 5.5%, while the 12-month rolling sum rose at an annual rate of 9.9%. Trade name filings remain in positive territory in Q1. A total of 12,277 trade names were filed in Q1 2015, continuing a positive but slowing pace of growth.The 12-month trailing sum of new trade name filings rose 1.2% year-over-year, though filings did tick up 25.4% from 9,792 in the prior quarter. Entities must file a statement of trade name when operating under any name other than their true name. Trademark filings stagnate following spike in Q4. Protecting the symbols and words used by businesses, the number of trademark filings in Colorado totaled 776 in Q1 2015. While new trademark filings were down 5.8% over the prior year, when they totaled 824, the five-year compound annual growth rate was 3.3% for first quarter.The 12-month trailing sum of trademark filings compounded at an annual rate of 7.5% from Q1 2010 to Q1 2015. Dissolution Filings Trade Name Filings Trademark Filings
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  Colorado Economic Indicators Colorado’shealthy economy continues to post gains. Job growth in 2014 proved to be the largest since 2000 according to revised data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. State employment grew 3.3% in 2014, ranking Colorado third nationally. Job growth continued in 2015, with Colorado adding 67,700 jobs year-over-year in March. Job growth continues despite the troubled oil and gas industry, although energy-producing areas of the state showed wavering employment growth in February and March. Personal income continues to trek upward, reaching $265.7 billion in Q4 2014. Building activity slipped across the state in Q1 2015, and the 12-month trailing total of building permits was valued at $6.5 billion in February 2015. Colorado business leaders’ perceptions of the state economy improved ahead of Q2 2015 according to the Leeds Business Confidence Index. 6 COLORADO SECRETARY OF STATE QUARTERLY BUSINESS & ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q1 2015 Colorado Employment Growth
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  National Economic Indicators 7 COLORADOSECRETARY OF STATE QUARTERLY BUSINESS & ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q1 2015 Energy prices depress U.S. energy economy. The sharp decline in energy prices has begun to impact energy employment, but analysts contend that the price decline is a net positive for the national economy due to consumer savings. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices stood at $52.08 per barrel in early April, and according to the Energy Information Administration are expected to average $52.48 per barrel in 2015 and $70.00 in 2016. Both GDP and employment grew, but at a slower rate, in the latest metrics. GDP ticked up 2.2% in Q4 2014 after growing 5% in Q3. Employment grew by 126,000 in March compared to 264,000 in February and 201,000 in January. Personal income and average annual pay both increased for the quarter, residential building permits and home values improved, and the S&P 500 rose 12.2% year-over-year. WTI Price Percentage Change, Year-over-Year 7
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  COLORADO SECRETARY OF STATE QUARTERLY BUSINESS & ECONOMIC INDICATORS PUBLISHED BY BUSINESS RESEARCH DIVISION, LEEDS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO BOULDER First Quarter 2015 Overview of Business Types Businesses are established under several different entity types.The most commonly formed is a domestic limited liability company (DLLC), blending structures from both corporations and partnerships/sole proprietorships. DLLCs provide owners with protection from personal liability and also offer benefits from the effects of pass-through income taxation. As an example, Fate Restaurants, LLC began operating Boulder-based Fate Brewing Company in 2012. Domestic corporations (DCs) are the second- most popular business filing received by the Secretary of State. DCs provide owners limited liability, similar to DLLCs, and business must be conducted in the state in which it was formed. Comcast is a well-known DC in Colorado. A third entity type is a domestic nonprofit corporation (DNC). DNCs differ from DLLCs and DCs in that they are formed not for profit and pursue an agenda of social responsibility. Big Brothers Big Sisters Colorado operates as a DNC with the mission to provide at-risk youth with professionally supported relationships. Public benefit corporations create a framework for companies that seek to solve social and environmental problems while benefiting their shareholders.ThinkImpact of Denver, which provides global experiential education programs with offices in Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, and South Africa, is an example of this type of corporation in Colorado. Foreign entities, or business entities registered in a different state, are authorized to transact business or conduct activities in the state of Colorado. According to the Colorado Secretary of State, all foreign entity types are functionally equivalent to their domestic counterparts.The Girls Athletic Leadership School of Denver (GALS) is an example of a foreign entity in Colorado. 8 A partnership between the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office and the University of Colorado Boulder Leeds School of Business Business Research Division