2021 GGSD Forum : High-Level Opening Session

2021 GGSD Forum : High-Level Opening Session

• 1.
  A Green Recovery Rethinkingthe built environment and transport Dr. Young Tae KIM Secretary-General, ITF OECD Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum 16 November 2021
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  An Intergovernmental Organisation  63member countries on five continents  Administratively integrated with OECD, politically independent  Only global body with a mandate for all modes of transport A Think Tank  Policy-relevant research and analysis (more than 60 reports per year)  Modelling, data and statistics  Identification of best practices Next ITF Summit 2022 May 18-20, Leipzig, Germany The Summit  The world’s largest gathering of transport ministers  The premier global transport policy event 0. ITF in general
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  Addressing transport challenges
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  DIGITALISATION DECARBONISATION SAFETY, SECURITY, HEALTH CONNECTIVITY UNIVERSAL ACCESS, INCLUSION 5ITF Focus areas 1. Addressing transport challenges
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  Global demand fortransport will more than double Under the current policy trajectory, passenger activity will increase 2.3-fold to 2050. Freight transport will grow by a factor of 2.6. Population growth and increasing prosperity drive increased demand in all scenarios. Passenger transport demand (billion passenger-kilometres) Freight transport demand (billion tonne-kilometres) 2015 Reshape 123 051 2015 2050 Current trajectory (Recover scenario) 52 766 2.3x 2015 Recover 2050 2015 2050 Current trajectory (Recover scenario) 344 279 134 959 2.6x 1. Addressing transport challenges
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  0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2015 2050 Current trajectory (Recoverscenario) Gigatonnes CO 2 Transport CO2 emissions will grow 16% Under today’s policies, transport will emit 16% more CO2 in 2050 than 2015 Emissions would exceed transport’s carbon budget more than three times Total transport CO2 emissions by sector (Gigatonnes CO2) Freight Passenger Note: Estimates of the emissions levels needed to meet 1.5C warming levels were sourced from https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer similarly to ICCT (2020). Transport sector emissions pathways with low or no overshoot were selected before estimating the median emissions in each year. Emissions of black carbon are excluded as these are not estimated in the ITF or IEA MoMo models. Emission levels needed to limit warming to 1.5°C 1. Addressing transport challenges
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  Six top tasksfor a green recovery
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  Implement much moreambitious policies that will reverse the growth of transport CO2 emissions Transport CO2 emissions are set to rise, not fall CO2 emissions could be nearly 70% less in 2050 compared to 2015 Total transport CO2 emissions by scenario (Gigatonnes CO2) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Note: ITF models used in this Outlook are typically run by five-year increments, therefore the 2020 to 2025 recovery trend may not necessarily be linear despite being shown as such in the figure. The shape of this “recovery curve” will depend on policy implementation and economic trajectories. Estimates of the emissions levels needed to meet 1.5C warming levels were sourced from https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer similarly to ICCT (2020). Transport sector emissions pathways with low or no overshoot were selected before estimating the median emissions in each year, error bars represent the 25th and 75th percentiles of scenarios. Emissions of black carbon are excluded as these are not estimated in the ITF or IEA MoMo models. Gigatonnes CO 2 Transport’s carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5C Ambitious policies (Reshape scenario) Current trajectory (Recover scenario) Ambitious policies + leveraged recovery (Reshape+ scenario) 2. Six top tasks for a green recovery
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  Align Covid-19 recoverypackages to revive the economy, combat climate change and strengthen equity An unbalanced focus on economic growth ignores social and environmental costs. Aligned policies are more cost effective, gain public support, and can achieve goals faster. Global inequality Incomes Emissions Opportunities Exacerbated by Covid-19 Economic losses Access limitations Address with aligned action Economic recovery Environmental objectives Policies for inclusion 2. Six top tasks for a green recovery
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  Governments should shiftthe priority to improving accessibility Mobility – the old paradigm Focus on fast trips, not good links Favours urban sprawl Results in more travel, not less Prioritises the private car Long supply chains Accessibility – the new paradigm Focus on access to destinations and goods Creates denser, mixed-use neighbourhoods Results in less travel, not more Prioritises sustainable, affordable modes Shorter supply chains 2. Six top tasks for a green recovery
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  Target different transportsectors with strategies that reflect their specific decarbonisation potential Urban travel has the greatest demand management potential. Reducing demand is most difficult for regional and intercity travel. Urban passenger transport demand in 2050 (billion passenger-kilometres) 54 313 68 737 42 290 65 262 Urban total non urban Ambitious policies + leveraged recovery (Reshape+ scenario) Current trajectory (Recover scenario) Non-urban passenger transport demand in 2050 (billion passenger-kilometres) Ambitious policies + leveraged recovery (Reshape+ scenario) Current trajectory (Recover scenario) 344 279 281 319 Recover 2050 Reshape+ Current trajectory (Recover scenario) Ambitious policies + leveraged recovery (Reshape+ scenario) Freight transport demand in 2050 (billion tonne-kilometres) -18% -5% -22% 2. Six top tasks for a green recovery
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  Support innovation toaccelerate technological breakthroughs needed to decarbonise transport Technological improvements offer the most promising path to decarbonising those parts of the transport sectors that are hard to decarbonise, such as aviation and road haulage Improve technologies Alternative fuels Increased energy efficiency Improved vehicle technology Boost digitalisation Real time information Efficient routing Optimal use of assets Encourage uptake Target high-use vehicle fleets Invest in charging infrastructure Offer purchase subsidies 2. Six top tasks for a green recovery
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  Intensify collaboration forsustainability with non-transport sectors and between public and private actors Public and private sectors need to work together Maximise benefits of new mobility Integrate land-use decisions with transport planning Clean transport needs clean energy A green electricity grid is crucial so electric vehicles can be truly emissions-free Trade and tourism need clean transport Low-carbon transport is key to sustainable trade and tourism 2. Six top tasks for a green recovery
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  Potential and challenge
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  Potential Various platforms More choicesfor users, economy of time and money Combination of strategic goals Linking transport to other sectors Acceleration of global cooperation More cooperation projects : modal, sectoral, geographical 3. Potential and challenge
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  Challenge Coordination and governance Central government– local government – private sector - individual Change of infrastructure Long life-cycle, heavy investment, gender bias, NIMBY, social consensus, maintenance cost, upgrade of public transport Cybersecurity and resilience 3. Potential and challenge
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   ITF supportedthe UK COP Presidency in organising an inaugural Transport Ministerial Meeting  ITF Secretary-General delivered a statement in the High Level Segment of the COP26 Session  ITF organised two side events on “The Role of Gender Equality in Decarbonising the Transport Sector” and “Decarbonising Transport: Driving Implementation Actions and Turning Targets into a Transformation”  As a focal point for transport in the UNFCCC, ITF was a leading organiser of the Marrakech Partnership Transport Action Event on Transport Day 17
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  Thank you Young TaeKim Secretary-General [email protected]