The New Normal: A Strategic Context for Minitrends
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The document discusses the concept of 'the new normal', highlighting forecasts about the U.S. adult population, economy, and technological advancements. It indicates that the future will bring an aging society with economic constraints, pervasive technology, and increased innovation leading to unintended consequences. Additionally, the emergence of affordable 3D printing technology is noted as a significant development within this changing landscape.
The New Normal: A Strategic Context for Minitrends
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- 10. 10 CERTAINTIES OF "THE NEW NORMAL" • DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS – The future size and make-up of the U.S. adult population – including our labor pool and our consumer markets – can be accurately forecast fifteen years out. • ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS – The future size and make-up of the U.S. economy and workforce can be accurately forecast ten years out. • TECHNOLOGIC FORECASTS – Mass-market applications of new technology can be accurately forecast seven to eight years out.
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- 14. 14 (Fig. 1) AGE COMPOSITION OF THE U.S. ADULT POPULATION 1955-2020 SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
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- 21. [email protected] 21 BLAME IT ON THE WEB ! THE BROADBAND INTERNET has accelerated two long-standing workplace trends: • global economic integration (Y2K) • information automation (“infomation”)
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- 34. 34 debt, deleveraging & AUSTERITY Asset Bubbles and Their Economic Consequences A 2010 McKinsey Global Institute analysis of 45 historic episodes during which 10 developed nations and 4 developing nations significantly reduced their total debt- to-GDP ratios since 1930, found: • long periods of deleveraging nearly always follow major financial crises; • deleveraging lasts 6 or 7 years, on average, during which • public & private sector debt are typically reduced by 1/3, while employment contracts & stagnates. http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/debt_and_deleveraging
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- 53. 53 10/ 13/ 12 1:14 PMAt last: a low- cost, professional- grade light- based 3D printer | KurzweilAI Page 1 of 3http:/ / www.kurzweilai.net/ at- last- a- low- cost- professional- grade- light- based- 3d- printer Form 1 (credit: Formlabs) KurzweilAI | Accelerating Intelligence. News At last: a low-cost, professional-grade light-based 3D printer September 27, 2012 Formlabs’ new Form 1 3D printer could bring professional-grade 3-D prints to the home workshop. Desktop 3-D printing has largely been the domain of extrusion-based machines like MakerBot’s Replicator and homebrew RepRap designs. These lag behind the capabilities of pricier, professional stereolithography devices, where UV light cures incredibly thin layers of resin to create objects on par with manufactured goods. Developing this type of printer at a consumer price point has been an elusive goal until now. The Form 1 is a desktop-sized machine that creates professional-grade, light-cured 3-D prints, Wired reports. Their prototype units are fully functional and Formlabs will finance manufacturing via a Kickstarter campaign that broke their $100,000 target in 2.5 hours. Initial backers will be able to pre-order the Form 1 for $2,299 (only 25 will be available at this price); additional units are priced at $2499 and $2699, based on order of contribution. Actual market pricing has not yet been released. How it works
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- 55. 55 An upper for Nike's Flyknit shoe.
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- 58. 58 We have entered a new era. . . . a "post-Industrial” age. But, because we do not yet know how today's multiple rapid changes will ultimately work out, the chattering classes have agreed to call it "The New Normal" for the time being.
- 59. 59 So, Welcome to THE NEW NORMAL, where • Society will be older (with fewer young adults): • most individuals and institutions will have to live/operate within more limited means; • technology will pervade every aspect of daily life and change how we all work and play; • and where accelerating innovation and change will produce growing numbers of unintended consequences.
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- 61. 61 David Pearce Snyder Consulting Futurist www.the-futurist.com “The future evolves in an orderly fashion out of the realities of the past, filtered and shaped by the decisions of the present.” David Pearce Snyder, 1969 [email protected] After 43 years, it’s still true!
- 62. 62 THE NEW NORMAL will be a period of change that will prepare us for THE NEXT NORMAL, whose inertial realities will dominate THE 21st CENTURY
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