Download as PDF, PPTX
Uploaded byWil Reynolds
25+ Reasons why predicting CTR from Rankings is Impossible
This document discusses the challenges of predicting the impact of SEO. It notes that predicting keyword volume and click-through rates is impossible due to constantly changing factors like news, user search behavior, and Google's algorithm. Specifically, it outlines how search volume can be impacted by external events and changes in how users search. Click-through rates are also difficult to predict due to variables like ad placements, device and location. The document concludes that while SEO metrics like rankings, traffic and conversions can be improved over time through testing and optimization, precisely predicting the impact of SEO is impossible given the many unknown variables that influence user behavior and search engine results.
More Related Content
Similar to 25+ Reasons why predicting CTR from Rankings is Impossible
![Crafting an SEO Strategy That WORKS [Case Study]](https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/seostrategyin2019-190703160558-thumbnail.jpg?width=640&height=640&fit=bounds)
25+ Reasons why predicting CTR from Rankings is Impossible
- 1. Predicting impact of SEO WilReynolds Associate @wilreynolds
- 2.
- 3. 3 @wilreynolds Keyword Volume (x) ClickThrough Rate (x) Conversion Rate (x) Conversion Value ROI
- 4.
- 5.
- 6.
- 7.
- 8.
- 9.
- 10.
- 11.
- 12. 12 @wilreynolds 33,000 Searches (x) 1.04CTR @ #10 343.2 Visitors
- 13. 13 @wilreynolds 343.2 Visitors (x) .18%conv. rate (x) .62 Conversions
- 14. 14 @wilreynolds .62 Conversions/mo (x) 12months 7.5 Conversions @ $150k = $1,125,000
- 15.
- 16.
- 17. @wilreynolds Problem, predicting search volumeand CTR is impossible
- 18.
- 19.
- 20. @wilreynolds Impacted by News Fallout of Favor Change in how we search Google gets Smarter Google Changes Behavior
- 21.
- 22.
- 23.
- 24. @wilreynolds Change in howwe search
- 25.
- 26.
- 27. 27 @wilreynolds #2 – ClickThrough Rate
- 28. @wilreynolds Carousel Google’s Comparison Ads MobileChanges PPC + SEO impacts CTR
- 29.
- 30.
- 31.
- 32.
- 33.
- 34.
- 35. @wilreynolds PPC Ad +SEO = More SEO traffic
- 36. @wilreynolds PPC Ad +SEO = More SEO traffic
- 37. 37 @wilreynolds “SEO CTR risesby 416% (brand) & rises by 125% (non-brand) When a PPC ad is also on the SERP” -SEER Study 2013
- 38. @wilreynolds Tale of 2searches
- 39.
- 40. 40 @wilreynolds 7 – Philly 2– National 1 – Review 0 - Atlanta
- 41. 41 @wilreynolds Search #2 First search “Thingsto do in Atlanta” Second search “SEO Company”
- 42.
- 43.
- 44. @wilreynolds Get more brandedsearch? Probably get more rankings
- 45. 45 @wilreynolds Cut that TVcampaign, rankings might slide…
- 46. @wilreynolds Mobile Search changes 1– How we search 2 – What we see (vs Desktop)
- 47.
- 48.
- 49.
- 50. @wilreynolds How confident areyou NOW?
- 51. 51 @wilreynolds • Is theMap showing? & is it mobile vs desktop? • Is mobile growing more than desktop for that KW? • Is your PPC ad showing? • Is a Click to Call Ad showing on mobile? • Is that person in your circles? • Have they searched for a different city before? • Ranking is lower if site is improperly configured? • Did you get the person to visit from a “how much to save” query, which increased your rank later for certain people but not others? • Is your brand trusted in SERP, like Amazon/Zappos? • Have they been to your site before? • Are branded competitors moving up? • Is Google launching a test? • Where is the person located, was location detection accurate? • Is PPC showing for your brand, how many other ads?
- 52. @wilreynolds Each of thosequestions impacts CTR, increasing complexity, decreasing confidence in CTR models.
- 53. 53 @wilreynolds Predicting CTR w/any degree of confidence is impossible making predicting impact reckless
- 54. @wilreynolds I can giveyou a number, I’ll have 5%-30% confidence in it 90% of the time
- 55. 55 @wilreynolds Have you everbeen @ a store and did a search to compare price? Then go to another store? Or Buy online?
- 56. @wilreynolds Online Leads toOffline
- 57. @wilreynolds Build content highin the funnel Probably get more conversions
- 58. 58 @wilreynolds If we canget content on getting a checking account at 16, then we have a higher chance to rank when that 16 year old does a search for “checking account”.
- 59.
- 60. @wilreynolds “If we canbe there at every step of the customer journey, they’ll know our brand, we’ll get higher CTR, and we’ll rank higher…”
- 61. @wilreynolds I propose welook to get better… EVERY month, than we were last month (rankings, traffic, conv.) Theory + Implement + Analyze Tweak, Improve, Measure, Win.