28th World Ethanol & Biofuels Conference

4th
November 2025
Eddie Tofpik MSTA, ACI-UK Member
Head of Technical Analysis & Senior Markets Analyst
Technical
Analysis of
1st
Generation
Feedstocks

Before we start…
properly…

A Message from my
Head of Compliance
Mr. Philip Llewellyn

A Message from my
Head of Compliance
“Please kindly let everyone know…that what you
are about to present are your own personal
thoughts and views…
…and not those of ADM, Archer Daniels
Midland, Wild Flavors, Probiotics, Neovia or ANY
other part of the ADM Group…”

A Message from my
Head of Compliance
“Please kindly let everyone know…that what you
are about to present are your own personal
thoughts and views…
…and not those of ADM, Archer Daniels
Midland, Wild Flavors, Probiotics, Neovia or ANY
other part of the ADM Group…”
“…now get on with it…”

So…would YOU like to see something…
…scary?

Let me show you something…
…that might scare you…

This is MY Daily Chart for…
New York Sugar Futures
(1st
month continuous)

Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)

Scary isn’t…quite a mess! Let me simplify it for you…

The Main Pattern since September 2024 (so over a full year now), had been the many
times breached & repaired Sep – Dec 2024 Bear Channel…that developed into a
Descending Expanding Wedge pattern

There is an even longer term Pattern! The Bright Red November 2023 – September 2024
shallower Bearish Schiff Pitchfork! You can see the effect of the Bright Red Middle Tine
(currently 14.85).

Finally…there is a more near term Bright Green late September 2024 – mid January 2025
Bearish Schiff Pitchfork. You can see the impact of the Middle Tine (currently 15.62)
pressing down on the market!

Let me now show you my Longer Term (Monthly) Charts…as you can see some of the
Longer Term actions of the market…

You can see one of the Longer Term Bearish Pitchfork Patterns more clearly here. You can
also see that all my Targets for Patterns have been achieved between 2023 – 2025.

The market is now eyeing (Longer Term)…the next remaining major support below…the
21st
Century 61.8% Absolute Fib…at 13.83.

Next…a simplified Daily Chart of
Chicago Corn Futures
(2nd
Month Continuous)

Here, you can easily see the showrunner for this market since I drew it in April 2025, the
Dark Blue February – April Bearish Schiff Pitchfork! It had been superb at showing the
Bearish Angle of Attack of the market!

The Market gapped higher with changeover in September…but was capped by the Gold
Long MA (currently 447)…and formed a small Bear Channel…running along the top of the
Upper Tine!

In mid October, the Market broke higher…& is now once again looking at the Gold Long
MA. Beyond this, we’ve dubious resistance of the Bright Red Lower Trendline of the Jul 23
to Jan 24 Descending Triangle (457 ¼).

We could regard the action between mid August-to-date as a possible Bullish Halfway
Hesitation with potential up to…maybe…462…470…and even 480…or a Double Top!

Supporting the Bullish idea…is the somewhat scrappy looking Double Bottom Pattern
Formed over June – September. It will be between this…and the Gold Long MA on Top.

Next…a simplified Daily Chart of
Paris Rapeseed Futures
(2nd
Month Continuous)

We have here, exited from one Wedge pattern, an Ascending Wedge Pattern between
March – August (…you can just see the outline…as it is no longer a valid Pattern)…

down & out…into another Wedge Pattern…a Descending Wedge Pattern…with a Bright
Green Trendline (currently 466.70)…& Bright Red Trendline (currently 457.50)…

However, this action also gave us another Pattern, a May – August H&S Pattern, utilising
the Bright Red Trendline…as a Neckline. Initially, I thought this might be a H&S Top…

…but it seems to have become a rarer H&S Continuation Pattern, as on the 22nd
of Oct,
prices broke higher…over the Bright Green Trendline as well as the Green Short/Medium
MA (currently 471.50).

This has set this Pattern up for a Primary Target ‘X’ in the 489 ¾ area & a harder to reach
Secondary Target ‘X1’ in the 502 area. There are a lot of obstacles in the way!

The Mauve Medium MA (478), the combined Gold Long MA (currently 482 ¼) & Dark Blue
Neckline Extension to the Aug – Sep 2024 Reverse H&S Pattern (currently 482 ¾).

plus…ALL the Congestion between May – August!

Finally…a simplified Daily Chart of
Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil Futures
(2nd
Month Continuous)

This Market had (has) 2 Bull Channels running the move higher since May.

The Bright Red May – September Bull Channel…which prices exited out on the downside..

…and the not so good looking Bright Green ‘possible’ June-to-date Bull Channel (currently
4433 – 4899). I am not in love with this Pattern!

The reason we turned lower & exited out of the Bright Red Bull Channel is fairly simple.
In August, we hit the Dark Blue Neckline for an old Sep 2015 – Nov 2017 H&S Top
(currently 4635). This has capped us since!

There is also another Purple September 2015 – November 2023 Reverse H&S Neckline
above (currently 4721)…though I do not rate this one as highly as the Dark Blue one.

If prices do turn lower…well…we have a lot of support below, especially at the 4274 level
Which is the combined 38.2% Fib of the May 2020 – Mar 2022 move & the 50% Fib of the
May 2023 – Dec 2024 move.

There is an immediate feature to watch. The week of the 21st
– 27th
October had a
Weekly Key Reversal Down…I’d be interested to see if this had any follow through…

Finally…one Key level to watch between now…and the end of 2025…and that is 3599!
If we reach down there before the end of the Year…then we would have set up the
conditions for an Annual Key Reversal…
MYR 3599

…with all the implications that may have! I know we are far away now…but we came
awfully close earlier this year…and it is very much worth remembering.
MYR 3599

Though this was not a TA Classroom…I would like to let you
know where you could find more information about…
Technical Analysis…
If you like what you saw and would like to know more…
…then please look HERE…or contact me…
WWW.TECHNICALANALYSTS.COM
…you may wish to use your camera phones…

These are my FREE Daily & Weekly Videos where you can find further
Daily & Weekly Technical Analysis of markets.

These are my FREE Longer Term (Annual) Videos where you can find further Technical
Analysis of markets.

Our Parent Company…ADM
At ADM, we unlock the power of nature to provide access to
nutrition worldwide. With industry-advancing innovations, a
complete portfolio of ingredients and solutions to meet any
taste, and a commitment to sustainability, we give customers an
edge in solving the nutritional challenges of today and
tomorrow. We’re a global leader in human and animal nutrition
and the world’s premier agricultural origination and processing
company.
Our breadth, depth, insights, facilities and logistical expertise
give us unparalleled capabilities to meet needs for food,
beverages, health and wellness, and more. From the seed of the
idea to the outcome of the solution, we enrich the quality of life
the world over.
Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, ADM connects crops to
markets on six continents.
For more information on our company and our products, visit
www.adm.com .

Proprietary
business
information
of
ADM.
47
The three companies below are known as The ADM Investor Services Companies.
Together, they provide comprehensive futures brokerage services to clients around the world.
The ADM Investor Services Companies
United States London Singapore
Additionally, ADM Investor Services Companies’ reach is extended by ADMIS BV in the Netherlands,
the Archer Financial Services, ADMIS Hong Kong and ADMIS Taiwan business units.
ADMIS leads the United
States operations from its
headquarters in Chicago
and offices in New York and
Houston.
www.admis.com
ADMISI, a wholly-owned
subsidiary of ADM UK
Limited, leads our UK and
European business.
www.admisi.com
The Asian branch of the
group leads ADM Investor
Services’ presence
throughout the APAC
region.
www.admis.com/sg
ADM Investor Services, Inc.
(ADMIS)
ADM Investor Services
International Limited
(ADMISI)
ADMIS Singapore Pte. Limited

Proprietary
business
information
of
ADM.
48
Our History…
1966 1986 1990 1998 2003 2005 2008 2014
Tabor Grain
becomes CBOT
Clearing Member
2015 2016
1993
1975 2002 2006
ADM acquires Tabor
Grain and creates
subsidiary Tabor Grain
Commodities
Tabor Grain
Commodities
becomes ADM
Investor Services,
Inc. (ADMIS)
ADMIS triples size
due to industry
consolidation
ADMIS
opens
Taiwan
affiliate
ADMIS starts
New York
branch office,
acquires NY
memberships
ADM Investor Services
International (ADMISI) is
established in London via
acquisition.
Benson-Quinn
consolidates FCM
into ADMIS
ADMIS incorporates
Forex subsidiary,
ADMIS Global FX
ADMIS establishes
ADMIS Singapore
Archer Financial
Services (AFS) is
incorporated
2011
ADMIS Hong
Kong Limited is
established via
acquisition
ADMIS acquires Iowa
Grain Company
ADMIS IB relationships
grow substantially via
industry consolidation
ADMISI
acquires MSL
ADMIS adds
sales groups in
NY and Chicago
via Jeffries’
departure from
the futures space
ADMIS celebrates
50 years!
2023
Over $10.7
billion in
customer
assets and
growing

I am mindful that time is short…so…

…here’s the FINAL bit…….errr...
This Publication is issued by ADM Investor Services International Limited (‘ADMISI’) which is
regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of The London Stock Exchange.
References to ‘we’, ‘us’ and ‘our’ in this Publication shall mean ADMISI unless otherwise stated.
This Publication was prepared and distributed by us for information purposes only. This
publication and information herein should not be considered investment advice nor an offer to
sell or an invitation to invest in any products mentioned by ADMISI. The information and opinions
contained within this Publication were considered by us to be valid when published. This
Publication may also contain information that has been provided to us by third parties. The
source of such information may be disclosed within this Publication where relevant. Although
every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, ADM Investor Services
International Limited (ADMISI) assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not
update it. Any person placing reliance upon this Publication to undertake trading, does so entirely
at their own risk, and accordingly, we do not accept any liability as a result, whether direct or
indirectly incurred. Derivatives and securities markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected
price movements, and past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Currency movements may also have an unfavourable, as well as favourable effect on the value of
the underlying investment and/or assets. Investments and/or strategies discussed herein, may
not be suitable for all investors. Accordingly, if any person reading this Publication has doubts
about their particular suitability, they should consult an independent investment adviser.

…here REALLY is the final bit…

+442077168201 & +31320788380
eddie.tofpik@admisi.com
@EddieTofpik
Eddie’s Crayons...
Daily, Weekly & Annual Technical Analysis Commentaries on
FX, Commodities & other markets…

28th World Ethanol & Biofuels Conference

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