A foolproof Way to Estimate a Software Project
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This document discusses effective methods for estimating software projects, highlighting the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and three-point estimation as useful tools. It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a small, experienced team and advises against adding personnel to struggling projects, citing Brooks's law. The author also notes the potential of AI, particularly OpenAI's ChatGPT, to assist in task generation and estimation.
A foolproof Way to Estimate a Software Project
- 1. A fool proof way to Estimate aSoftware Project Maurice de Beijer @mauricedb
- 2. ī Maurice de Beijer ī The Problem Solver ī Microsoft MVP ī Freelance developer/instructor ī Helping startups ī Currently at https://someday.com/ ī Twitter: @mauricedb ī Web: https://www.TheProblemSolver.dev ī E-mail: [email protected] 2 Š ABL - The Problem Solver
- 3. Topics ī No Estimates? ī Program evaluation and review technique ī Three-point estimation ī OpenAI and ChatGPT ī Team size
- 5. Can we learn from history?
- 7. Apollo & Planning Photo by NASA on Unsplash
- 8. Apollo & Planning Photo by NASA on Unsplash
- 9. Program evaluation and review technique
- 10. Program evaluation and review technique PERT is a method of analyzing the tasks involved in completing a given project, especially the time needed to complete each task, and to identify the minimum time needed to complete the total project. It incorporates uncertainty by making it possible to schedule a project while not knowing precisely the details and durations of all the activities. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_evaluation_and_review_technique
- 12. Three-point estimation The three-point estimation technique is used in management and information systems applications for the construction of an approximate probability distribution representing the outcome of future events, based on very limited information. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-point_estimation
- 13. Assumption It will probably take 3 days plus or minus 2 to do a task. The average is 3 days!
- 14. Reality It will probably take 3 days to do a task. If everything goes well just 1 day. But it could take up to 9 days if we are unlucky. The average is 3,66 days!
- 16. Three-point Estimation Activity Predecessor Time estimates Expected time Opt. (o) Normal (m) Pess. (p) A â 2 4 6 4.00 B â 3 5 9 5.33 C A 4 5 7 5.17 D A 4 6 10 6.33 E B, C 4 5 7 5.17 F D 3 4 8 4.50 G E 3 5 8 5.17
- 18. What Activities? Photo by Dollar Gill on Unsplash
- 19. The Magical Number Seven, Plus or MinusTwo: SomeLimitsonOurCapacityfor ProcessingInformation Miller's law
- 20. What Activities? Photo by petr sidorov on Unsplash
- 21. Can we add from the future?
- 22. The future Photo by Ameer Basheer on Unsplash
- 23. AI is very good at cancer detection Photo by National Cancer Institute on Unsplash
- 24. OpenAI ChatGPT Photo by Jonathan Kemper on Unsplash
- 25. Generate a list of tasks
- 26. Generate tasks
- 27. ChatGTP Prompts
- 28. ChatGTP Prompts
- 31. Excel table
- 36. Team size
- 37. Team size âNine women can't make a baby in one monthâ âAdding manpower to a software project that is behind schedule delays it even longerâ -- Brooks's laws
- 38. Team size ī Start with a small and experienced team ī Add some less experienced developers after a while ī Is the project is struggling at the end? ī Donât add more developers! ī Instead remove less capable developers! ī â âLess capableâ does not mean âLess experiencedâ â
- 39. Conclusion ī No Estimates usually doesnât work ī PERT works well even with a lot of uncertain tasks ī ChatGPT will help you find and estimate tasks ī Keep the team size as small as possible Specially when struggling with the final delivery
- 40. Maurice de Beijer @mauricedb maurice.de.beijer @gmail.com Š ABL - The Problem Solver 40
Editor's Notes
- #7: US Virginia-class submarine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_submarine
- #8: September 12, 1962
- #9: July 20, 1969
- #11: Developed by the US Navy in 1957
- #29: I want you to become my Prompt Creator. Your goal is to help me craft the best possible prompt for my needs. The prompt will be used by you, ChatGPT. You will follow the following process: 1. Your first response will be to ask me what the prompt should be about. I will provide my answer, but we will need to improve it through continual iterations by going through the next steps. 2. Based on my input, you will generate 3 sections. a) Revised prompt (provide your rewritten prompt. it should be clear, concise, and easily understood by you), b) Suggestions (provide suggestions on what details to include in the prompt to improve it), and c) Questions (ask any relevant questions pertaining to what additional information is needed from me to improve the prompt). 3. We will continue this iterative process with me providing additional information to you and you updating the prompt in the Revised prompt section until it's complete.