09/06/2011




    Implications of biodiesel-
  induced land-use changes for
         CO2 emissions
       Case studies in tropical America,
          Africa and Southeast Asia.


                Achten W.M.J. & Verchot L.




Introduction
 Are biofuel environmentally sustanable?
 Life cycle assessments (LCA)

 Reduction in CO2-eq
   Oil palm: 38-79.5%
   Jatropha: 49 to 72%
   Soybean: 57 to 74%




                                                     1
09/06/2011




 Introduction
    Are biofuel environmentally sustanable?
    Life cycle assessments (LCA)

    LCAs often do not include land use change




 Carbon debt & Repayment time
GHG
emissions



  Biodiesel
                Carbon debt
                (CO2eq per ha)         LCA
                                       Land use change:
                                       Biodiesel land
                                       • clearing system reduces GHG
    Fossil                                                      CO
                                       emissions compared to fossil 2
                                       • soil emissions
                                       diesel



                 Repayment time (yr)


                                                              Time




                                                                                2
09/06/2011




Material and Method
 3 feedstocks
 6 countries
 12 cases




Achten and Verchot (submitted)




Material and Method
 Land use change
 Carbon debt (CD) [kg C ha-1]
    Loss of biomass carbon
    Loss of soil carbon
 Allocation to biodiesel (A) [%]
 CO2 emission reduction rate (CO2RR) [kg C ha-1 yr-1]
 Repayment time (RT) [yr]


               CD * A
 RT =
               CO2 RR

Fargione et al. (2008) Science




                                                                3
09/06/2011




M&M: Land use change
 Direct land use change (dLUC)
       Observed: Household surveys, remote sensing
       Estimated: stakeholder interviews


 Indirect land use change (iLUC)
       Observed: Household surveys
       Estimated: Scenario’s (based on Fritsche et al. 2010)
            25% of ‘used’ land in dLUC
            50% of ‘used’ land in dLUC
            75% of ‘used’ land in dLUC




Achten and Verchot (submitted)




                                                                       4
09/06/2011




M&M: Carbon debt
 Aboveground biomass carbon loss
 from former land use:
   Measured (1 case)
   Literature review (region specific)
 Belowground biomass carbon loss
 from former land use
   Root/Shoot ratios: literature
 Soil carbon loss
   IPCC tier 1




Carbon debt




  Achten and Verchot (submitted)




                                                 5
09/06/2011




M&M: Allocation
 Expressed in %
 Extracted from literature
 review

                                                                Achten et al. (2007)
                                                                BioFPR



M&M: CO2 emission reduction rate
 Based on comparative life cycle
 assessments
     Literature review




Resulting repayment times
 Oil palm

Cases                 Malaysia   Manokwari West          Boven
                                 Indonesia Kalimantan,   Digoel,
                                           Indonesia     Indonesia

Carbon debt           698.8 +    253.6 +     1578.9 +    669.5 + 5.3
(dLUC + iLUC 25%)     0.0        24.8        109.8
(Mg CO2 ha-1)

Repayment rate        7.69       6.90        6.90        6.90
(Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1 )
Repayment time        76 + 0 =   32+ 2 =     199 + 7 =   84 + 1 =
(yr)
                      76         34          206         85

                                 Secondary
                                                PEAT
                                   Forest




                                                                                               6
09/06/2011




 Resulting repayment times
    Oil palm
                                                   Peatland forest: Indonesia/Malaysia
                                                   423-918 years
                                                   Fargione et al. (2008) Science; Gibbs et al. (2008) Environ.
                                                   Res. Lett. [accounted for 50 years of soil emissions]


                                                   169 years
                                                   Wicke et al. (2008) Biomass & Bioenergy [accounted for 25
                                                   years of soil emissions]



                                                   Tropical rainforest: Indonesia/Malaysia
                                                   30-86 years
                                                   Wicke et al. (2008) Biomass & Bioenergy; Fargione et al.
                                                   (2008) Science




      Fargione et al. (2008) Science




 Resulting repayment times
    Jatropha
Cases                        Ghana      Ycatan,      Michocan,            Chiapas               Zambia
                                        Mexico       Mexico               Mexico
Carbon debt       239.8 +               184.5 +      140.0 +              18.3 +                24.7 +
(dLUC + iLUC 25%) 11.0                  0            112.3                197.9                 24.5
(Mg CO2 ha-1)

Repayment rate               1.89 –     1.89 –       0.79 –               0.79 –                -0.32 –
(Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1 )          2.99       2.99         1.89                 1.89                  0.79



Repayment time               90 + 4 =   76 + 0 =     105 + 84 =           14 + 148 =            95 + 94 =
(yr)
                             94         76           189                  162                   188
                            Woodland Woodland             Forest               Forest           Woodland


                              Industrial scale                Smallholder systems




                                                                                                                          7
09/06/2011




Resulting repayment times
  Soybean

Cases                   Sorriso, Brazil      Guarantã do        Santarém,
                                             Norte & Alta       Brazil
                                             Floresta, Brazil
Carbon debt             134.5 + 0.0          23.5 + 33.6        55.3 + 159.1
(dLUC + iLUC 25%)
(Mg CO2 ha-1)
Repayment rate          0.87                 0.87               0.87
(Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1 )

Repayment time (yr) 41 + 0 =                 7 + 10 =           16 + 47 =
                        41                   17                 64
                                                                     Amazon
                                    Cerrado Region                   Region




Resulting repayment times
  Soybean




                 Lapola et al. (2008) PNAS




                                                                                       8
09/06/2011




Discussion
 In our cases
   Soybean < oil palm < Jatropha < oil palm on peat

 Final result mainly depends on
   Carbon debt caused (direct and indirect)
   Performance of biofuel crop


 Very site specific
   Land use deplaced
   Potential crop yield




Discussion
 Caution

   Land use change/dynamics are difficult to
   assess (uncertain)
   Carbon content of land use types is based on
   literature




                                                              9
09/06/2011




Conclusion
 Land use changes can negate the
 greenhouse gas balance of biofuels and
 postpone net greenhouse gas emission
 benefits for long periods
 Site specific
   Type of land use changed
   Performance of biofuel
 Biofuel climate mitigation potential
   In areas with low carbon content
   Areas not used in production systems
   Areas where biofuel feedstock is sufficient
   performing




Thank you for your kind attention



                  Questions?




                                                        10

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Achten biofuel carbon debts

  • 1. 09/06/2011 Implications of biodiesel- induced land-use changes for CO2 emissions Case studies in tropical America, Africa and Southeast Asia. Achten W.M.J. & Verchot L. Introduction Are biofuel environmentally sustanable? Life cycle assessments (LCA) Reduction in CO2-eq Oil palm: 38-79.5% Jatropha: 49 to 72% Soybean: 57 to 74% 1
  • 2. 09/06/2011 Introduction Are biofuel environmentally sustanable? Life cycle assessments (LCA) LCAs often do not include land use change Carbon debt & Repayment time GHG emissions Biodiesel Carbon debt (CO2eq per ha) LCA Land use change: Biodiesel land • clearing system reduces GHG Fossil CO emissions compared to fossil 2 • soil emissions diesel Repayment time (yr) Time 2
  • 3. 09/06/2011 Material and Method 3 feedstocks 6 countries 12 cases Achten and Verchot (submitted) Material and Method Land use change Carbon debt (CD) [kg C ha-1] Loss of biomass carbon Loss of soil carbon Allocation to biodiesel (A) [%] CO2 emission reduction rate (CO2RR) [kg C ha-1 yr-1] Repayment time (RT) [yr] CD * A RT = CO2 RR Fargione et al. (2008) Science 3
  • 4. 09/06/2011 M&M: Land use change Direct land use change (dLUC) Observed: Household surveys, remote sensing Estimated: stakeholder interviews Indirect land use change (iLUC) Observed: Household surveys Estimated: Scenario’s (based on Fritsche et al. 2010) 25% of ‘used’ land in dLUC 50% of ‘used’ land in dLUC 75% of ‘used’ land in dLUC Achten and Verchot (submitted) 4
  • 5. 09/06/2011 M&M: Carbon debt Aboveground biomass carbon loss from former land use: Measured (1 case) Literature review (region specific) Belowground biomass carbon loss from former land use Root/Shoot ratios: literature Soil carbon loss IPCC tier 1 Carbon debt Achten and Verchot (submitted) 5
  • 6. 09/06/2011 M&M: Allocation Expressed in % Extracted from literature review Achten et al. (2007) BioFPR M&M: CO2 emission reduction rate Based on comparative life cycle assessments Literature review Resulting repayment times Oil palm Cases Malaysia Manokwari West Boven Indonesia Kalimantan, Digoel, Indonesia Indonesia Carbon debt 698.8 + 253.6 + 1578.9 + 669.5 + 5.3 (dLUC + iLUC 25%) 0.0 24.8 109.8 (Mg CO2 ha-1) Repayment rate 7.69 6.90 6.90 6.90 (Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1 ) Repayment time 76 + 0 = 32+ 2 = 199 + 7 = 84 + 1 = (yr) 76 34 206 85 Secondary PEAT Forest 6
  • 7. 09/06/2011 Resulting repayment times Oil palm Peatland forest: Indonesia/Malaysia 423-918 years Fargione et al. (2008) Science; Gibbs et al. (2008) Environ. Res. Lett. [accounted for 50 years of soil emissions] 169 years Wicke et al. (2008) Biomass & Bioenergy [accounted for 25 years of soil emissions] Tropical rainforest: Indonesia/Malaysia 30-86 years Wicke et al. (2008) Biomass & Bioenergy; Fargione et al. (2008) Science Fargione et al. (2008) Science Resulting repayment times Jatropha Cases Ghana Ycatan, Michocan, Chiapas Zambia Mexico Mexico Mexico Carbon debt 239.8 + 184.5 + 140.0 + 18.3 + 24.7 + (dLUC + iLUC 25%) 11.0 0 112.3 197.9 24.5 (Mg CO2 ha-1) Repayment rate 1.89 – 1.89 – 0.79 – 0.79 – -0.32 – (Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1 ) 2.99 2.99 1.89 1.89 0.79 Repayment time 90 + 4 = 76 + 0 = 105 + 84 = 14 + 148 = 95 + 94 = (yr) 94 76 189 162 188 Woodland Woodland Forest Forest Woodland Industrial scale Smallholder systems 7
  • 8. 09/06/2011 Resulting repayment times Soybean Cases Sorriso, Brazil Guarantã do Santarém, Norte & Alta Brazil Floresta, Brazil Carbon debt 134.5 + 0.0 23.5 + 33.6 55.3 + 159.1 (dLUC + iLUC 25%) (Mg CO2 ha-1) Repayment rate 0.87 0.87 0.87 (Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1 ) Repayment time (yr) 41 + 0 = 7 + 10 = 16 + 47 = 41 17 64 Amazon Cerrado Region Region Resulting repayment times Soybean Lapola et al. (2008) PNAS 8
  • 9. 09/06/2011 Discussion In our cases Soybean < oil palm < Jatropha < oil palm on peat Final result mainly depends on Carbon debt caused (direct and indirect) Performance of biofuel crop Very site specific Land use deplaced Potential crop yield Discussion Caution Land use change/dynamics are difficult to assess (uncertain) Carbon content of land use types is based on literature 9
  • 10. 09/06/2011 Conclusion Land use changes can negate the greenhouse gas balance of biofuels and postpone net greenhouse gas emission benefits for long periods Site specific Type of land use changed Performance of biofuel Biofuel climate mitigation potential In areas with low carbon content Areas not used in production systems Areas where biofuel feedstock is sufficient performing Thank you for your kind attention Questions? 10