Addressable	
  TV	
  	
  
Himanshu	
  Bari	
  
Copyright	
  –	
  Himanshu	
  Bari.	
  Do	
  not	
  share	
  
4/25/14	
  
Overview & Opportunities
Goals	
  
1.  Understand	
  broad	
  dynamics	
  of	
  the	
  addressable	
  TV	
  market	
  	
  (US	
  
ONLY)	
  
2.  How	
  can	
  set-­‐top	
  box	
  data	
  be	
  used	
  for	
  beIer	
  online	
  Ad	
  targeLng	
  
and	
  vice-­‐versa	
  
Connec>ng	
  the	
  TV	
  data	
  island	
  
Data	
  Connec>on	
  Pla@orm	
  
Online	
   Mobile	
   TV	
   Other(Cars..)	
  
First	
  party	
  OR	
  Third	
  party	
  data	
  
Granular|	
  Complete|	
  Mul>-­‐dimensional	
  
Display	
  |Search	
  |	
  Video	
  |	
  Measurement	
  |	
  Content	
  
Consumer	
  TV	
  watching	
  behavior	
  has	
  changed	
  
• FragmentaLon	
  of	
  TV	
  audience	
  
–  No	
  longer	
  loyal	
  to	
  networks	
  but	
  to	
  shows	
  
–  Hundreds	
  of	
  channels	
  &	
  proliferaLon	
  of	
  ‘reality	
  TV’	
  
–  VOD	
  
• Change	
  in	
  habits	
  
–  DVR	
  &	
  Ad	
  Skipping	
  
–  Watch	
  on	
  demand	
  and	
  not	
  linear	
  TV	
  
	
  
• Second	
  screening	
  
–  Interact	
  or	
  reach	
  via	
  online/mobile/social	
  media	
  
Living	
  room	
  has	
  changed	
  
• Smart	
  TVs	
  	
  
As	
  of	
  	
  Q1-­‐2012,	
  per	
  NPD	
  &	
  Neilson	
  there	
  were	
  25	
  million	
  U.S.	
  smart	
  TV	
  homes,	
  
but	
  only	
  12	
  million	
  are	
  connected	
  to	
  the	
  Internet	
  and	
  the	
  raLo	
  is	
  not	
  growing	
  
• Game	
  consoles	
  (Q1-­‐2012)	
  
	
  
Conversion	
  to	
  digital	
  almost	
  done…	
  
• Digital	
  needed	
  for	
  2-­‐way	
  signal	
  exchange	
  for	
  addressable	
  TV	
  
• Satellite	
  (aka	
  DBS)	
  &	
  Telcos	
  are	
  digital	
  from	
  incepLon	
  
• HD	
  enabled	
  set-­‐top	
  boxes	
  –	
  around	
  40M	
  homes	
  (Q1-­‐2012)	
  
	
  
Technology	
  infrastructure	
  coming	
  together	
  	
  
Inside	
  the	
  Home	
  
	
  
	
  
Distributors	
  
•  Set-­‐top	
  box	
  data	
  
goldmine	
  
•  Smart	
  TVs	
  &	
  game	
  
consoles	
  
•  Smartphones	
  
•  Big	
  data	
  processing	
  
infrastructure	
  (open	
  
source	
  +	
  cloud)	
  
•  90%	
  conversion	
  to	
  
digital	
  done	
  
Complete	
  Customer	
  Data	
  
Fair	
  Reach	
  
42M	
  homes	
  addressable	
  with	
  Live	
  TV	
  or	
  VOD	
  in	
  CY-­‐2014	
  
Makes	
  all	
  of	
  us	
  dream	
  of	
  the	
  addressable	
  TV	
  opportunity	
  
Consumers	
  
watch	
  VOD	
  
or	
  Live	
  TV	
  
Targeted	
  ad	
  
is	
  served	
  
Consumer	
  
interacts	
  
with	
  ad	
  on	
  
screen	
  or	
  on	
  
Smartphone	
  
Online	
  &	
  
mobile	
  ads	
  
follow-­‐up	
  on	
  
TV	
  	
  ads	
  
Consumers	
  
take	
  some	
  
acLon	
  
Target	
   Measure	
   Analyze	
   OpLmize	
  
Cross	
  
plaeorm	
  
And	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  $$$$	
  
	
  
• How	
  much?	
  
–  $11.6	
  billion	
  by	
  2015	
  –	
  per	
  Bank	
  of	
  America	
  (	
  needs	
  verificaLon)	
  
–  Growth	
  not	
  clear	
  
	
  
• Which	
  budget	
  is	
  the	
  money	
  coming	
  from?	
  
	
  
A	
  piece	
  
of	
  $70B	
  
Steal	
  from	
  
other	
  
media	
  
New	
  money	
  
from	
  priced	
  
out	
  buyers	
  
Easier Harder
$2.4B	
  
PoliLcal	
  
Ads	
  
The	
  pie	
  will	
  be	
  split	
  among	
  fewer	
  players	
  
Player	
  incen>ves	
  are	
  aligned	
  to	
  realize	
  benefits	
  
Player	
  Category	
   Incen>ve	
   Incen>ve	
  
Strength	
  
Market	
  Power	
  
Brands	
   •  Reduce	
  spend	
  	
  
•  Focused	
  targeLng	
  before	
  criLcal	
  events	
  
like	
  product	
  launches	
  
•  Tie	
  TV	
  with	
  online	
  &	
  mobile	
  
Very	
  high	
   Varies	
  
Agencies	
   •  Leverage	
  data	
  to	
  make	
  smarter	
  buying	
  
decisions	
  
•  Their	
  clients	
  are	
  pushing	
  them	
  
Neutral	
   Medium	
  
Data	
  providers	
   •  Incremental	
  revenue	
   Very	
  high	
   Medium	
  
Programma>c	
  
infrastructure	
  +	
  
measurement	
  	
  
•  Capture	
  market	
  share	
  in	
  a	
  nascent	
  &	
  
evolving	
  area	
  
Very	
  high	
   Low	
  
Distributors	
   •  MoneLze	
  their	
  data	
  
•  BeIer	
  Ad	
  targeLng	
  
•  NegoLaLng	
  power	
  against	
  the	
  networks	
  
Very	
  high	
   Very	
  high	
  
Networks	
   •  Stem	
  $	
  flow	
  to	
  digital	
  
•  Higher	
  CPMs	
  for	
  underuLlized	
  inventory	
  
•  Close	
  loop	
  with	
  second	
  screen	
  
Medium	
  	
   Very	
  high	
  	
  
Hence, addressability is inevitable…
But	
  we	
  s>ll	
  need	
  to	
  cross	
  the	
  chasm	
  
Early	
  majority	
   Late	
  majority	
  	
  
Inventory
- Remnant & local
- DVR & VOD - All day parts
- Pieces of primetime
Sellers
- Cable MSOs
- Virtual MSOs
- Major networks
Pricing models
- Limited auctions
Programmatic
players
- Specialized for TV
- Some digital ad players
Agencies
- Focus on effectiveness &
efficiency of campaigns
- Customized video creative &
versioning
Brands
- Niche & differentiated - Mass appeal brands
- Reservations & ceilings
- Consolidation
What	
  will	
  help	
  in	
  crossing	
  the	
  Chasm?	
  
Buy	
  Side	
  
-­‐  Broad	
  reach	
  
-­‐  OrganizaLonal	
  alignment	
  
-­‐  Cross	
  plaeorm	
  campaign	
  
management	
  
Sell	
  Side	
  
-­‐  Controls	
  &	
  ROI	
  guarantees	
  	
  
-­‐  Yield	
  management	
  
-­‐  BeIer	
  dynamic	
  Ad	
  
inserLon	
  
-­‐  MoneLze	
  set-­‐top	
  box	
  data	
  
Programma>c	
  infra	
  
-­‐  Neutral	
  management	
  &	
  
buying	
  plaeorms	
  
-­‐  Cross	
  plaeorm	
  	
  &	
  cross	
  
channel	
  measurement	
  	
  
Technology	
  
-­‐  Infrastructure	
  interoperability	
  
-­‐  ID	
  mapping	
  
Data	
  
-­‐  Format	
  compaLbility	
  
-­‐  IntegraLon	
  with	
  online	
  &	
  offline	
  
Consumer	
  Privacy	
  &	
  Favorable	
  Regulatory	
  environment	
  
Connect	
  the	
  TV	
  data	
  island	
  
	
  
• OpLon-­‐1:	
  Targeted	
  TV	
  Ads	
  
–  Offline	
  first	
  party	
  data	
  +Experian+	
  	
  STB	
  data	
  =>Targeted	
  TV	
  Ads	
  
	
  
• OpLon-­‐2:	
  Targeted	
  online	
  &	
  mobile	
  Ads	
  
–  Offline	
  first	
  party	
  data	
  +	
  Datalogix/Experian+	
  STB	
  data	
  =>Targeted	
  online	
  +	
  
Mobile	
  Ads	
  
	
  
CRM	
  data	
  
	
  
Email,	
  zip	
  ID	
  etc.	
  
	
   Third	
  party	
  
	
  
	
  STB	
  ID	
  	
  
+	
  	
  
Segment	
  
TV	
  audience	
  
insights	
  
from	
  
MSOs	
  OR	
  Ad	
  
networks	
  
Set-­‐top	
  box	
  
Subscriber	
  data	
  
from	
  MSOs	
  
	
  
Email,	
  STB	
  ID	
  
Op>on-­‐1:	
  Using	
  offline	
  data	
  to	
  serve	
  targeted	
  TV	
  Ads	
  is	
  less	
  
aarac>ve	
  
Op>on-­‐2:	
  Using	
  TV	
  +	
  offline	
  data	
  for	
  online	
  &	
  mobile	
  targe>ng	
  
looks	
  promising	
  
CRM	
  data	
  
Email,	
  zip,	
  prod	
  
ID	
  etc	
  
Subscriber	
  
data	
  from	
  
MSOs-­‐	
  
Email,	
  STB	
  ID	
  
TV	
  audience	
  
data	
  
Third	
  party	
  
data	
  
Online	
  
	
  OR	
  	
  
Mobile	
  
targe>ng	
  
Third	
  
party	
  
Companies	
  trying	
  to	
  connect	
  TV	
  data	
  to	
  online	
  Ads	
  
• Datalogix	
  
–  DLX	
  	
  TV	
  –	
  Use	
  TV	
  watching	
  behavior	
  to	
  target	
  online	
  customers	
  
–  Announced	
  couple	
  years	
  back	
  
–  Exclusive	
  partnership	
  with	
  TRA	
  (	
  subsidiary	
  of	
  TiVo)	
  
• Experian	
  
Thank	
  You	
  
Serving	
  &	
  measuring	
  Ads	
  with	
  Addressable	
  TV	
  
• Context	
  
–  TV	
  is	
  a	
  	
  joint	
  watching	
  experience.	
  
–  Limit	
  products	
  that	
  apply	
  	
  to	
  households	
  
–  Time	
  of	
  the	
  day	
  
–  Type	
  of	
  program	
  
–  LocaLon	
  
–  Weather	
  
–  People	
  do	
  not	
  want	
  to	
  get	
  interrupted	
  while	
  watching	
  the	
  program	
  so	
  the	
  
interacLon	
  with	
  the	
  Ad	
  might	
  be	
  limited	
  
• Measurement	
  
–  Long-­‐standing	
  metrics	
  such	
  as	
  Gross	
  RaLng	
  Points	
  (GRPs)	
  and	
  Nielsen	
  
Network	
  demos	
  will	
  be	
  replaced	
  with	
  effecLve	
  cost-­‐per-­‐	
  targeted-­‐audience	
  
reach	
  metrics	
  	
  
Benefits	
  of	
  Addressable	
  TV	
  
TV	
  s>ll	
  has	
  the	
  highest	
  reach	
  
Addressability	
  plans	
  of	
  major	
  MSOs	
  
Willingness	
  to	
  pay	
  by	
  Ad	
  buyers	
  
Major	
  media	
  spend	
  
DBS	
  &	
  Telcos	
  pose	
  severe	
  compe>>ve	
  threat	
  to	
  tradi>onal	
  cable	
  
MSOs	
  
Simulmedia	
  

Addressable TV

  • 1.
    Addressable  TV     Himanshu  Bari   Copyright  –  Himanshu  Bari.  Do  not  share   4/25/14   Overview & Opportunities
  • 2.
    Goals   1.  Understand  broad  dynamics  of  the  addressable  TV  market    (US   ONLY)   2.  How  can  set-­‐top  box  data  be  used  for  beIer  online  Ad  targeLng   and  vice-­‐versa  
  • 3.
    Connec>ng  the  TV  data  island   Data  Connec>on  Pla@orm   Online   Mobile   TV   Other(Cars..)   First  party  OR  Third  party  data   Granular|  Complete|  Mul>-­‐dimensional   Display  |Search  |  Video  |  Measurement  |  Content  
  • 4.
    Consumer  TV  watching  behavior  has  changed   • FragmentaLon  of  TV  audience   –  No  longer  loyal  to  networks  but  to  shows   –  Hundreds  of  channels  &  proliferaLon  of  ‘reality  TV’   –  VOD   • Change  in  habits   –  DVR  &  Ad  Skipping   –  Watch  on  demand  and  not  linear  TV     • Second  screening   –  Interact  or  reach  via  online/mobile/social  media  
  • 5.
    Living  room  has  changed   • Smart  TVs     As  of    Q1-­‐2012,  per  NPD  &  Neilson  there  were  25  million  U.S.  smart  TV  homes,   but  only  12  million  are  connected  to  the  Internet  and  the  raLo  is  not  growing   • Game  consoles  (Q1-­‐2012)    
  • 6.
    Conversion  to  digital  almost  done…   • Digital  needed  for  2-­‐way  signal  exchange  for  addressable  TV   • Satellite  (aka  DBS)  &  Telcos  are  digital  from  incepLon   • HD  enabled  set-­‐top  boxes  –  around  40M  homes  (Q1-­‐2012)    
  • 7.
    Technology  infrastructure  coming  together     Inside  the  Home       Distributors   •  Set-­‐top  box  data   goldmine   •  Smart  TVs  &  game   consoles   •  Smartphones   •  Big  data  processing   infrastructure  (open   source  +  cloud)   •  90%  conversion  to   digital  done   Complete  Customer  Data   Fair  Reach   42M  homes  addressable  with  Live  TV  or  VOD  in  CY-­‐2014  
  • 8.
    Makes  all  of  us  dream  of  the  addressable  TV  opportunity   Consumers   watch  VOD   or  Live  TV   Targeted  ad   is  served   Consumer   interacts   with  ad  on   screen  or  on   Smartphone   Online  &   mobile  ads   follow-­‐up  on   TV    ads   Consumers   take  some   acLon   Target   Measure   Analyze   OpLmize   Cross   plaeorm  
  • 9.
    And  a  lot  of  $$$$     • How  much?   –  $11.6  billion  by  2015  –  per  Bank  of  America  (  needs  verificaLon)   –  Growth  not  clear     • Which  budget  is  the  money  coming  from?     A  piece   of  $70B   Steal  from   other   media   New  money   from  priced   out  buyers   Easier Harder $2.4B   PoliLcal   Ads  
  • 10.
    The  pie  will  be  split  among  fewer  players  
  • 11.
    Player  incen>ves  are  aligned  to  realize  benefits   Player  Category   Incen>ve   Incen>ve   Strength   Market  Power   Brands   •  Reduce  spend     •  Focused  targeLng  before  criLcal  events   like  product  launches   •  Tie  TV  with  online  &  mobile   Very  high   Varies   Agencies   •  Leverage  data  to  make  smarter  buying   decisions   •  Their  clients  are  pushing  them   Neutral   Medium   Data  providers   •  Incremental  revenue   Very  high   Medium   Programma>c   infrastructure  +   measurement     •  Capture  market  share  in  a  nascent  &   evolving  area   Very  high   Low   Distributors   •  MoneLze  their  data   •  BeIer  Ad  targeLng   •  NegoLaLng  power  against  the  networks   Very  high   Very  high   Networks   •  Stem  $  flow  to  digital   •  Higher  CPMs  for  underuLlized  inventory   •  Close  loop  with  second  screen   Medium     Very  high     Hence, addressability is inevitable…
  • 12.
    But  we  s>ll  need  to  cross  the  chasm   Early  majority   Late  majority     Inventory - Remnant & local - DVR & VOD - All day parts - Pieces of primetime Sellers - Cable MSOs - Virtual MSOs - Major networks Pricing models - Limited auctions Programmatic players - Specialized for TV - Some digital ad players Agencies - Focus on effectiveness & efficiency of campaigns - Customized video creative & versioning Brands - Niche & differentiated - Mass appeal brands - Reservations & ceilings - Consolidation
  • 13.
    What  will  help  in  crossing  the  Chasm?   Buy  Side   -­‐  Broad  reach   -­‐  OrganizaLonal  alignment   -­‐  Cross  plaeorm  campaign   management   Sell  Side   -­‐  Controls  &  ROI  guarantees     -­‐  Yield  management   -­‐  BeIer  dynamic  Ad   inserLon   -­‐  MoneLze  set-­‐top  box  data   Programma>c  infra   -­‐  Neutral  management  &   buying  plaeorms   -­‐  Cross  plaeorm    &  cross   channel  measurement     Technology   -­‐  Infrastructure  interoperability   -­‐  ID  mapping   Data   -­‐  Format  compaLbility   -­‐  IntegraLon  with  online  &  offline   Consumer  Privacy  &  Favorable  Regulatory  environment  
  • 14.
    Connect  the  TV  data  island     • OpLon-­‐1:  Targeted  TV  Ads   –  Offline  first  party  data  +Experian+    STB  data  =>Targeted  TV  Ads     • OpLon-­‐2:  Targeted  online  &  mobile  Ads   –  Offline  first  party  data  +  Datalogix/Experian+  STB  data  =>Targeted  online  +   Mobile  Ads    
  • 15.
    CRM  data     Email,  zip  ID  etc.     Third  party      STB  ID     +     Segment   TV  audience   insights   from   MSOs  OR  Ad   networks   Set-­‐top  box   Subscriber  data   from  MSOs     Email,  STB  ID   Op>on-­‐1:  Using  offline  data  to  serve  targeted  TV  Ads  is  less   aarac>ve  
  • 16.
    Op>on-­‐2:  Using  TV  +  offline  data  for  online  &  mobile  targe>ng   looks  promising   CRM  data   Email,  zip,  prod   ID  etc   Subscriber   data  from   MSOs-­‐   Email,  STB  ID   TV  audience   data   Third  party   data   Online    OR     Mobile   targe>ng   Third   party  
  • 17.
    Companies  trying  to  connect  TV  data  to  online  Ads   • Datalogix   –  DLX    TV  –  Use  TV  watching  behavior  to  target  online  customers   –  Announced  couple  years  back   –  Exclusive  partnership  with  TRA  (  subsidiary  of  TiVo)   • Experian  
  • 18.
  • 19.
    Serving  &  measuring  Ads  with  Addressable  TV   • Context   –  TV  is  a    joint  watching  experience.   –  Limit  products  that  apply    to  households   –  Time  of  the  day   –  Type  of  program   –  LocaLon   –  Weather   –  People  do  not  want  to  get  interrupted  while  watching  the  program  so  the   interacLon  with  the  Ad  might  be  limited   • Measurement   –  Long-­‐standing  metrics  such  as  Gross  RaLng  Points  (GRPs)  and  Nielsen   Network  demos  will  be  replaced  with  effecLve  cost-­‐per-­‐  targeted-­‐audience   reach  metrics    
  • 20.
  • 21.
    TV  s>ll  has  the  highest  reach  
  • 22.
  • 23.
    Willingness  to  pay  by  Ad  buyers  
  • 24.
  • 25.
    DBS  &  Telcos  pose  severe  compe>>ve  threat  to  tradi>onal  cable   MSOs  
  • 26.