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Advanced manufacturing an ICT and systems perspective
1st Edition Marco Taisch Digital Instant Download
Author(s): Marco Taisch, Klaus-Dieter Thoben, Marco Montorio
ISBN(s): 0415429129
Edition: 1
File Details: PDF, 3.65 MB
Year: 2007
Language: english
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING – AN ICT AND SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE
BALKEMA – Proceedings and Monographs
in Engineering, Water and Earth Sciences
Advanced Manufacturing –
An ICT and Systems Perspective
Editors
Marco Taisch
Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering,
Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
Klaus-Dieter Thoben
BIBA, University of Bremen, Germany
Marco Montorio
Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering,
Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
LONDON / LEIDEN / NEW YORK / PHILADELPHIA / SINGAPORE
Taylor & Francis is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK
Typeset by Charon Tec Ltd (A Macmillan Company), Chennai, India
Printed and bound in Great Britain by Antony Rowe Ltd (CPI-Group), Chippenham, Wiltshire
All rights reserved. No part of this publication or the information contained herein may be reproduced, stored in a
retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, by photocopying, recording or
otherwise, without written prior permission from the publisher.
Although all care is taken to ensure the integrity and quality of this publication and the information herein, no respon-
sibility is assumed by the publishers nor the authors or editors for any damage to property or persons as a result of
operation or use of this publication and/or the information contained herein.
Published by: Taylor & Francis/Balkema
P.O. Box 447, 2300 AK Leiden, The Netherlands
e-mail: Pub.NL@tandf.co.uk
www.taylorandfrancis.co.uk/engineering, www.crcpress.com
ISBN 13: 978-0-415-42912-2
Advanced Manufacturing – An ICT and Systems Perspective – Taisch,
Thoben & Montorio (eds)
© 2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-42912-2
Table of contents
Preface IX
Part I: Advanced manufacturing: Foresight and roadmapping initiatives
The future of manufacturing: Survey of international technology
foresight initiatives 3
M. Montorio & M. Taisch
The IMS-NoE Delphi survey of ICT in manufacturing 13
M. Montorio & M. Taisch
Manufacturing visions: A holistic view of the trends for
European manufacturing 23
C. Dreher
Part II: Product lifecycle management
Product lifecycle management: State-of-the-art, trends and challenges 37
M. Garetti, M. Macchi & S. Terzi
SMART-fm: Setting interoperability in SME-based industrial
environments 51
R. Jardim-Goncalves, H. Panetto, M. José Nuñez & A. Steiger-Garcao
Ubiquitous PLM using Product Embedded Information Devices 65
D. Kiritsis & A. Rolstadås
Closed-loop PLM 79
H.-B. Jun, D. Kiritsis & P. Xirouchakis
Part III: Sustainable products and processes
Sustainable products and processes: Challenges for future research 91
O. Myklebust, D. Kiritsis & T. Lamvik
The end-of-life stage of product systems 99
O. Myklebust & T. Lamvik
ECO-efficient LIFE-Cycle technologies: From products to service
systems 107
T. Lamvik
Part IV: Production scheduling and control
Manufacturing scheduling and control in the extended enterprise 119
B. Iung & L. Monostori
Organising and running real-time, co-operative enterprises 133
L. Monostori, R. Fornasiero & J. Váncza
Flexible and responsive cross-organisational interoperability 145
G. Weichhart, S. Oppl & T. Wäfler
V
Part V: Benchmarking and performance measures
Performance measurement systems in manufacturing: State-of-the-art
and future trends 159
S. Cavalieri, P. Valckenaers, U. Bititci, R. Bandinelli & K. Mendibil
PRODCHAIN: Supporting SMEs participating successfully in
production networks 179
R. Roesgen
Part VI: Industrial services
Industrial services: Challenges for integration and global co-operation
with supply chains 187
G. Gudergan & A. Garg
Challenges in industrial service business development 199
V
. Salminen & P. Kalliokoski
Part VII: Human factors and education in manufacturing
Human factors research to increase manufacturing productivity
and innovation 217
P
. Vink & J. Stahre
Global education in manufacturing 229
A. Rolstadås
Simulation gaming to train engineers to efficiently collaborate in
manufacturing networks 239
K.D. Thoben & M. Schwesig
Part VIII: Collaborative engineering
Co-operative and virtual engineering: A multi-stakeholder roadmap 249
J. Goossenaerts, C. Brecher, F. Possel-Dölken & K. Popplewell
Management of dynamic virtual organisations: Results from a collaborative
engineering case 263
J. Eschenbächer, F. Graser, K.D. Thoben & B. Tiefensee
Integrating the engineering of product, service and organisation within the
collaborative enterprise: A roadmap 273
K.-D. Thoben, K. Pawar, M. Pallot & R. Santoro
Part IX: Supply chain integration
Supply chain integration: State-of-the-art, trends and challenges 283
T. Gulledge, H.-H. Hvolby, C. Sheahan, R. Sommer & K. Steger-Jensen
Vendor managed inventory as a supply chain application 289
H.-H. Hvolby & K. Steger-Jensen
E-business solutions as supply chain enablers 295
K. Steger-Jensen & H.-H. Hvolby
VI
Web services as supply chain enablers 303
K. Steger-Jensen & H.-H. Hvolby
From Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) to Open Resource Planning (ORP):
The openfactory project 311
M. Meyer
Subject index 317
Author index 319
VII
Advanced Manufacturing – An ICT and Systems Perspective – Taisch,
Thoben & Montorio (eds)
© 2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-42912-2
Preface
Manufacturing has played, and continues to play, a vital role in the European economy and society,
and it will remain a significant generator of wealth in the future. A strong manufacturing industry
will indeed continue to be fundamental to creating stable employment inside the European economy.
For these reasons the ability to maintain and develop the competitiveness of the manufacturing
industry is essential for Europe’s prosperity. This is especially the case at the present time when
the risk of de-industrialisation is becoming increasingly serious owing to the growing intensity
of competition emerging from low-wage countries, outsourcing and off-shoring trends, and the
brain-drain phenomenon.
In such circumstances it is important to share a common understanding and create awareness of
the new challenges and opportunities for the next generation of manufacturing, and from this, to
develop a strategic research agenda and stimulate new research initiatives.
This is the rationale behind the preparation and publication of this book on Advanced Manufac-
turing, which summarises the results of three years of work within the IMS-NoE project (Network
of Excellence on Intelligent Manufacturing Systems).
The IMS-NoE, funded by the European Commission, has provided a sound support infrastructure
and a stimulating forum for discussion on the future of manufacturing and promoting excellence
in manufacturing-related research.
The Network consists of over 300 experts in manufacturing, coming not only from the Euro-
pean Union, where it originated, but also from other IMS Regions (Australia, Canada, Japan,
Korea, Switzerland and the USA). The IMS-NoE owes its success to its multi-regional and
multidisciplinary nature.
The IMS-NoE brought together the expertise and experience of hundreds of researchers, indus-
trial managers and policymakers worldwide and has collected their ideas, forming them into the
IMS-NoE Vision on the Future of Manufacturing. This was developed through the organisation
of initiatives such as: IMS-NoE Special Interest Group brainstorming meetings (www.ims-
noe.org/SIG.asp), the International IMS Forum 2004, a survey on technology foresight projects,
a Delphi study on ICT in manufacturing, and a series of workshops on ICT in manufacturing
(www.ims-noe.org/FP7.asp), which set the cornerstone for the ICT in manufacturing initiative in
the fields of:
• ICT to support management of IPR in view of industrial outsourcing/insourcing strategies;
• New intelligent and networked products;
• The agile wireless manufacturing plant;
• New manufacturing technologies for miniaturised ICT;
• Strategies for the design and manufacturing of new products.
The IMS-NoE activities must be analysed in the global framework of the IMS (Intelligent Man-
ufacturing Systems) program (www.ims.org). The IMS Phase I came to an end in 2005 and Phase
II started in 2006.
This book presents the achievements of the IMS-NoE, and in accordance to the open and col-
laborative nature of the Network, integrates these with visionary contributions coming from other
initiatives.
The result is a broad, but necessarily non-exhaustive, vision on the future of manufacturing,
which is here analysed from a system management perspective and with a special focus on
IX
ICT-related matters. Each contribution intends to present such a complex and multidisciplinary
research domain from a specific perspective, while focusing on a particular research domain.
Therefore while Part I: Advanced Manufacturing: Foresight and Roadmapping Initiatives
provides an overview of past and continuing technology foresight exercises in manufacturing,
the remaining parts will focus on:
• Part II: Product Lifecycle Management
• Part III: Sustainable Products and Processes
• Part IV: Production Scheduling and Control
• Part V: Benchmarking and Performance Measures
• Part VI: Industrial Services
• Part VII: Human Factors and Education in Manufacturing
• Part VIII: Collaborative Engineering
• Part IX: Supply Chain Integration
The ideas presented are nevertheless not intended to be an end in themselves. The book, provoca-
tive in its nature, aims at building consensus and also to stimulate fresh discussions, which may
lead to novel research initiatives in the future.
The editors wish to thank the contributors as well as the European Commission for their support.
Marco Taisch
IMS NoE Project Co-ordinator
Klaus-Dieter Thoben
IMS NoE Partner
Marco Montorio
IMS NoE Project Manager
X
Part I
Advanced manufacturing: Foresight and
roadmapping initiatives
The shift from product to service dominance in value chains does not imply that products in the
future will not play a critical role in the value creation process. Many human needs are and will
always be satisfied in a physical, rather than in a virtual way. What is radically and unavoidably
changing is not the role of manufacturing, but the way artefacts are manufactured. The ability of
the European production sector to remain competitive in the decades to come depends on its ability
to adapt and face future manufacturing challenges.
To remain competitive in this rapidly changing context it is vital to understand where to go
and how to change. In this respect several technology foresight exercises have been undertaken
in Europe, Japan, USA, Korea, Australia, Canada, as well as in other countries, with the intent
to understand how to support the manufacturing sector in the transformation from a physical
resource-based to a knowledge-based paradigm.
Discrepancies among the different studies are symptomatic of the difficulty to delineate a clear
vision on the future of manufacturing, especially given the quick and ever increasing pace of
technology shifts. Nevertheless, many similarities can be identified and, building on them, it is
necessary to delineate a clear strategic research agenda to support manufacturing.
This section presents technology foresight, visionary and roadmapping activities in manufactur-
ing, which have been undertaken within the IMS-NoE project as well as in the framework of other
initiatives, with the intent of identifying similarities and of reaching a common understanding of
them.
The first two contributions present, respectively, a survey analysis and a Delphi study that were
carried on within the IMS-NoE project.
The survey investigates past and continuing technology foresight initiatives in manufacturing,
taking into consideration projects from several IMS regions (Australia, Canada, European Union,
Korea, Japan and USA), and presenting a critical analysis of the developed visions.
The Delphi study presents a vision on the future of manufacturing, with a special focus on the
impact that ICT will have on next generation production systems.
The third contribution deals with the results of the project Manufacturing Visions – Integrating
Diverse Perspectives into Pan-European Foresight (ManVis), which started in 2004. Based on sev-
eral initiatives such as a Delphi-survey, workshops and interviews with experts, ManVis intends to
support the continuing policy process of enhancing the competitiveness of European manufacturing
industries.
2
Advanced Manufacturing – An ICT and Systems Perspective – Taisch,
Thoben & Montorio (eds)
© 2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-42912-2
The future of manufacturing: Survey of international technology
foresight initiatives
Marco Montorio & Marco Taisch
Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Milano
ABSTRACT: This paper surveys several technology foresight initiatives in manufacturing.
Research projects from Australia, Canada, European Union, Korea, Japan and USA have been
investigated and a critical analysis of the developed visions has been undertaken to identify specific
features and common elements.
Keywords: Technology foresight, Next-Generation Manufacturing, roadmap, vision.
1 INTRODUCTION
Manufacturing remains a key generator of wealth and is still at the heart of the economic growth
in industrialised economies. But in recent years manufacturing in developed countries has under-
gone profound changes that are bringing it from a resource-based and centralised paradigm to a
knowledge-intensive, innovation-based, adaptive, digital and networked one.
Given the prominence of manufacturing in developed economies, and being aware of the pro-
found shift that it is now facing, the ability to maintain and develop the competitiveness of
manufacturing through relevant R&D investments will be essential for the prosperity of indus-
trialised countries. This is especially true at the present time when the risk of de-industrialisation
is becoming increasingly serious, owing to outsourcing and off-shoring trends and to increased
competition coming from low-wage countries, such as China and India.
In this complex and rapidly changing environment planning a suitable R&D policy for manufac-
turing will be crucial for industrialised countries to face the continuing transition while maintaining
their competitive position.
2 MANAGING THE TRANSITION: THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT
Recognising the importance of investing in R&D for manufacturing is the first step, but under-
standing which areas to invest in and which technologies to research is the heart of the problem. To
plan R&D investments it is necessary to envision next generation manufacturing and to understand
how enterprises need to change to face future market challenges while remaining competitive. In
this sense, technology foresight represents the basis for decision making in R&D strategy.
According to Ben Martin (SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research Unit, at the Uni-
versity of Sussex – 1995) technology foresight can be defined as an activity which: “involves
systematic attempts to look into the longer term future of science, technology, the economy, the
environment and society with a view to identifying emerging generic technologies and the under-
pinning areas of strategic research likely to yield the greatest economic, social and environmental
benefits.”
3
In the last decade great attention has been given to technology foresight in manufacturing and
several initiatives have been launched in industrialised countries such asAustralia, Canada, Europe,
Japan, Korea and USA, with the intent to develop a vision on the next generation manufacturing
and thus to support R&D decisions in manufacturing for the private sector (to guide industrial R&D
strategies) and for the public one (to support policy making and funding strategies). Some of the
most relevant work carried on in the last decade are:
• IMSS – International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (international – 1st round – 1992, 2nd
round – 1996, 3rd round – 2000 and 4th round 2004);
• NGMP – Next Generation Manufacturing Project (USA - 1995);
• VISIONARY 2020 – Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 (USA – 1998);
• IMTI – Integrated Manufacturing Technology Initiative (USA – 1998);
• IMTR – Integrated Manufacturing Technology Roadmap Project (USA – 2000);
• NGMS – Next Generation Manufacturing Systems (European Union, Japan, USA – phase I –
1999 & phase II – 2000);
• Informan+ (European Union – 2000);
• FORESIGHT 2020 (UK – 2000);
• VISION 2025 (KOREA – 2000);
• FutMan – The Future of Manufacturing in Europe, 2015 – 2020 (European Union – 2003);
• ManuFuture (European Union – 2003);
• MANU 20/20 – Manufacturing in 2020 (CANADA - 2004);
• MANU INITIATIVE – The Manufacturing Initiative (USA – 2004);
• ManVis – ManufacturingVisions – Integrating Diverse Perspectives into Pan-European Foresight
(European Union – 2004).
3 SURVEY OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT INITIATIVES IN MANUFACTURING
Some of the above initiatives have been analysed to identify specific features and common elements.
TheManVis andtheManuFuture initiativesarepresentedelsewhereinthebook, soarenotdiscussed
furtherinthispaper. Inthefollowingthereareintroductionstoaselectionoftheanalysedtechnology
foresight projects. The projects, presented in chronological order, have been selected to highlight
the evolution and the profound changes which manufacturing has been facing in industrialised
countries in the last decade.
3.1 Next-Generation Manufacturing Project – USA (1995)
The Next-Generation Manufacturing Project (NGMP), started in 1995, aimed at developing a
framework which US manufacturers could use as a guide to understand the future market and the
necessary counteractions to remain competitive.
NGMP was funded by the National Science Foundation, the National Institute of Standards
and Technology, the Department of Defence, the Department of Energy and 10 other associations.
Close to 500 experts, from more than 100 companies, industry associations, government agencies
and academic institutions participated in the initiative.
NGMP output is structured into Drivers, Attributes, Dilemmas, Imperatives and Action Plan
Recommendations.
The drivers represent the forces that will shape the future competitive environment that manu-
facturing organisations will have to compete in. Among them, particular relevance is given to:
• The continuous development of ICT, which will allow information to be universally and
instantaneously available.
• The worldwide spread of scientific education.
• More competitive markets.
• A general increase in customer expectations.
• A higher environmental responsibility and consciousness of resource limitations.
4
To remain competitive, and in response to the described drivers, manufacturing enterprises will
have to develop specific attributes, such as:
• More intimate relationship with the customer, thus achieving customer responsiveness and even
anticipating customers’ requirements in terms of products and services.
• Flexible, adaptable and responsive processes, equipment, plants, human resources and strategies.
• Intra- and inter- enterprise team working and ability to face increasing problem complexity.
Manydesiredattributesofthefuturevisionareinapparentconflict.Thishighlightstheemergence
of some dilemmas (or key barriers), that on the other side may also represent opportunities for
achieving competitive advantages. NGMP identified three kinds of dilemmas.
• For the enterprise the dilemmas will be: How to guarantee employee security and loyalty within
rapid skill shifts, turnover in the labour force and a flexible workforce? How to achieve collabora-
tive knowledge sharing within knowledge-based competition? How to control core competencies
without owning them? How to recover rising plant and equipment costs with shorter product
and process lifetime? How to profit from long-term relationships when customers, suppliers and
partners are becoming less loyal?
• For the nation the dilemmas will be: How to keep domestic jobs while developing global markets?
How to deal with transnational corporations?
• For the individual the dilemmas will be: How to have good jobs with individual security while
employed in flexible workplaces?
The dilemmas can be overcome through the identified imperatives, that is, practices and
technology solutions, grouped into four categories: people-related, business process-related,
technology-related and integration-related. All the imperatives are strongly interdependent; there
is a need to simultaneously address all actions from an integrated people, business process and
technology viewpoint across all elements of the enterprise to realise the desired objectives.
People-related imperatives stress the importance of: a flexible workforce, which includes not
only the individual worker, but also the workplace and government policy; and knowledge sup-
ply chains, which must provide and spread knowledge among industry, university, school and
associations.
Concerningbusinessprocesses, NGMPunderlinedtheneedforrapidproduct/processrealisation,
innovation and change management; a necessity given rapidly changing environment and customer
expectations. This search for flexibility, adaptability to customer requirements, and short time to
market will be enabled by re-configurable, scalable and cost effective processes and equipment,
pervasive modelling and simulation, and adaptive, responsive information systems.
The increasing range of knowledge and competencies needed to produce products or services
or both will drive a growing integration; this has to be viewed from two perspectives: integration
and collaboration among companies, which are grouped in extended enterprises, and integration
within the company, among people, information, business practices and processes.
NGMP addressed all the stakeholders involved (enterprises, industry associations, academia,
government and individuals) introducing several cross-cutting action plan recommendations, such
as the need to: develop systematic processes for knowledge capture and knowledge-based man-
ufacturing; establish a government partnership with industry and academia for a supportive
manufacturing infrastructure; enable and promote pervasive use of modelling and simulation;
and develop intelligent processes and flexible manufacturing systems.
3.2 Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 – USA (1998)
www.nap.edu/html/visionary
The Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 initiative aimed to identify key R&D areas for
investments to support US manufacturing. Funded by the National Research Council in 1998, it
convened a committee of manufacturing and technology experts, with representatives from small,
medium and large companies from a variety of industries.
5
Starting from the Next Generation Manufacturing Project and other roadmapping initiatives in
manufacturing, Visionary 2020 relied on an international Delphi survey that helped the committee
to prioritise future industry needs.
Above all, Visionary 2020 underlined the need for a strong collaboration among research
centres, academia, industry, and government institutions as a critical success factor to keep US
manufacturing competitive in the global market.
Visionary 2020 depicted a vision of the future competitive environment that will be charac-
terised by:
• A growing development and diffusion of information and communication technologies which
will allow the instantaneous availability of knowledge and information.
• In turn this will bring to a sophisticated, global and highly competitive market, where enterprises
must base their success on continuous innovation, a skilled workforce and knowledge sharing.
• A higher customer demand for customised products and services, which will push the enterprise
to be flexible and rapid in its responses.
• An increased sensitivity to environmental protection, which will be essential for the global
ecosystem.
The changed market competition can be faced only by tackling the so called Six Grand
Challenges, which are:
1. Concurrent manufacturing. Concurrent manufacturing reduces time to market, encourages
innovation and improves quality. Concurrency in all operations needs new technologies in
process management and in rapid prototyping, and more flexible machines and interactive
computer networks that will allow skilled workers to share knowledge.
2. Integration of human and technical resources. Technologies will be adaptable to the changing
needs of the market, and people will have the know-how to optimise and enhance them. Indi-
vidual workers will continue to specialise and will share their knowledge with the other workers
in networks that will include suppliers, partners and customers. Factory organisation will be
less structured, allowing workers to reorganise themselves, the equipment and the processes to
meet customer demands.
3. Conversion of information to knowledge. Enterprises will need to instantaneously transform
information from a vast array of diverse sources into useful knowledge and effective decisions,
and to make this knowledge available to users (human and machine) instantaneously.
4. Environmental compatibility. Production waste and product environmental impact will be
reduced to near zero. This challenge can be won through developing cost-effective products
and processes that do not harm the environment, using recycled materials and minimising
wastes in terms of energy, material and human resources. A proactive approach is needed, with
a strong collaboration among governments, academia and enterprises.
5. Re-configurable enterprises. In response to the changing customer demand for customised
products and services, enterprises will need to reorganise themselves, rapidly forming and
dissolving alliances with other organisations and teams within the enterprise.
6. Innovative processes. New concepts need to be applied to manufacturing operations, lead-
ing to dramatic changes in production capabilities. Great attention needs to be given to
nanotechnologies and biotechnologies.
Visionary 2020 have identified some key technology research areas. These are: adaptable
and re-configurable systems; technologies for the minimisation of waste and energy consump-
tion; biotechnology and nano-technology; modelling and simulation; product and process design
methods; human-machine interfaces; technologies to convert information into knowledge for
effective decision making; new educational and training methods; and software for intelligent
collaboration systems.
6
3.3 IMTI – IMTR – USA (1998 – 2000)
www.IMTI21.org
The Integrated Manufacturing Technology Roadmap (IMTR) project was launched in 1998 by the
National Institute of Standards andTechnology, the US Department of Energy, the National Science
Foundation and the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency with the intent to produce an
integratedsuiteofplanstohelpandguidenationalmanufacturingtechnologyinvestments. Sixgrand
challenges, which should be faced to stay competitive in the future manufacturing environment,
and four technological areas, needed to win these challenges, were identified.
IMTR represented a planning phase and was followed in 2000 by the Integrated Manufacturing
Technology Initiative (IMTI), the implementation phase, which aims at stimulating the implementa-
tion of high-priority R&D projects to support the goals outlined by IMTR. IMTI serves as a point of
synergy for manufacturers, technology suppliers, research organisations, universities, associations
and consortia, to promote co-operation and to facilitate collaborative development of high-priority
technologies.
Based on existing roadmaps, for example NGMP, Visionary 2020, and Internet-based surveys,
the entire project involved more than 300 individuals, representing over 150 organisations.
The developed vision shows a competitive environment characterised by dynamics and
uncertainty, an accelerated pace of technological change, growing customer expectations, and
competition among extended enterprise. The above mentioned six grand challenges are:
1. Lean, Efficient Enterprises: enterprises will integrate business process improvements and work-
force performance enhancements with new technologies that raise manufacturing to a new level
of efficiency.
2. Customer-Responsive Enterprises: future manufacturing enterprises will leverage a global
communications infrastructure and customer-centric design, manufacturing, and lifecycle man-
agement systems to conceive, build, deliver, and support innovative products and services that
directly satisfy diverse customers’ needs.
3. Connected Enterprises: future manufacturing enterprises will be interconnected among all their
internal functions and external partners, suppliers and customers; these extended enterprises
will inter-operate as an integrated entity, irrespective of geographic boundaries.
4. Environmental Sustainability: manufacturers will face conflicts between the drive to industri-
alise and the need to protect the global environment; this problem must be addressed, developing
innovative materials, zero net lifecycle waste management, and recycling products, with no
negative impacts to the environment.
5. Knowledge Management: future manufacturing enterprises will be able to capture individual
expertise and experience for efficient reuse and draw on a rich, openly accessible shared base
of scientific, business, and process knowledge to make accurate decisions and ensure that the
right people get the right information at the right time.
6. Technology Exploitation: it is important to identify and master the right technologies, which
will give competitive advantages. Among them: nano-technology, Internet, computers and
electronics, polymers, plasma physics.
Four technological areas were identified to achieve and win the six grand challenges: information
systems for manufacturing, modelling and simulation, manufacturing processes and equipment,
technologies for enterprise integration.
3.4 Next Generation Manufacturing Systems Program – European Union, Japan, USA (Phase
I – 2000; Phase II – 2003)
http://cam-istandards.org/ngms.html
The Next Generation Manufacturing Systems Program is made up by an international consortium
drawing together 22 companies and 11 research groups in the USA, Europe and Japan.
For NGMS the future environment, which manufacturing enterprises will have to compete in, is
characterised by strategies based on global networks of self-organising, autonomous units. These
7
units may be part of one company, or part of several companies, located globally, all co-operating
to address customers’ requirements.
These networks of companies need to rapidly adapt to changing requirements, new technologies
and increased globalisation; shorter response times will not allow for experimentation and iteration
with real artefacts, so all decisions will be made on the basis of modelling and simulation, rather
than build-and-test methods. The entire supply chain (or virtual enterprise) will be modelled and
simulated before actual operation allowing choices to be tried and evaluated quickly.
The Next Generation Manufacturing Enterprise will be characterised by:
• Re-configurability: the ability for fast adaptation to erratic and unpredictable environment
changes;
• Capability of development: the ability to make evolutionary adaptations;
• Capability to manage turbulence: the ability to create and control turbulence in defined,
demarcated markets;
• Capability to realise changes: the ability and the readiness of all employees to change internal
structures;
• Evolutionary capability: the ability to continuously change through analysing and learning from
the weaknesses and potencies of the past;
• Uniqueness: permanent differentiation compared to competitors;
• Focus on core competencies: competencies to produce unique core products, not only with
knowledge, but also with wide practical experience.
(Source: NGMS White Paper).
3.5 FutMan – European Union (2003)
http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/industrial_technologies/articles/article_410_en.html
The FutMan project sought to assist the European Commission in examining what technological,
knowledge and organisational capabilities might be required by European manufacturing to remain
competitive and sustainable by the year 2020. Particular attention was paid to technological priority
areas and to any policy changes required.
FutMan enabled the creation of a forum of manufacturing experts who participated, among
other activities, in a scenario generation exercise with the intent to develop coherent long-term
visions of European manufacturing in 2015–2020 which could be used as a basis for strategic
planning. The scenarios represent imaginative, coherent views on potential socio-economic and
technological developments in the future that are likely to shape the European manufacturing sector.
Each scenario includes technological, economic, environmental and socio-political factors.
Four individual scenarios were developed, structured along two qualitative dimensions of change.
The first dimension refers to policy making and specifically to the balance between central and
decentralised decision-making in Europe, and to the co-ordination level between different policy
areas. The second dimension refers to the extent to which social and environmental consciousness
and public values will impact on future consumer behaviours and demand patterns. The four
scenarios, synthesised in terms of scenario features and implications for manufacturing, are:
Global Economy
• Scenario features:
– Global governance: World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the interests of large multinational
companies shape international trade policies. Policy-making principally aims to strengthen
market mechanisms and competition. Little co-ordination of policies among nations.
– Consumer: consumers pursue personal utility without paying too much attention to environ-
mental and social impacts of production and consumption.
• Manufacturing implications:
– Manufacturers focus on customisation and individualisation of products.
– The engineering processes are assumed to be quick and flexible.
8
loose
concerted
Sustainable
Times
Local
Standard
Global
Economy
Focus
Europe
collective
individual
public values and consumer
behaviour
integration of SD
-
relevant policies
Sustainable
Times
Local
Standard
Global
Economy
Focus
Europe
public values and consumer behaviour
int
egr
ati
on
of
SD
rel
eva
nt
pol
icie
s
SD: Sustainable Development
Figure 1. FutMan scenarios (Source: FutMan – The Future of Manufacturing in Europe 2015–2020 – The
Challenge for Sustainability – Final Report).
– The scenario favours short-term industrial research activities.
– Sustainability improvements are just a second-order effect owing to the search for energy
consumption efficiency.
Local Standard
• Scenario features
– Global governance: new global protectionism, local authorities have gained new powers.
Regional governments determine policy priorities and drive regulation.
– Consumer: consumers and citizen groups (organised in Non-Governmental Organisations
(NGOs)) push their agendas on local environmental issues.
• Manufacturing implications
– High innovation dynamic on a regional level but disparities among regions.
– Regional peculiarities lead to a complex environment where centralisation and decentralisation
of manufacturing operations will coexist depending on sectors, processes and products.
– Regional demand structures require new solutions for flexible specialisation in manufacturing.
Sustainable Times
• Scenario features
– Global governance: a global governance system has emerged that promotes sustainable
development and environmental protection worldwide.
– Consumer: citizens support government co-ordination to reconcile the economic, environ-
mental, and social dimensions of sustainability.
• Manufacturing implications
– Industry is a partner, closely collaborating with governments and the civil society. Emphasis
is given to socially responsible technology development. The notion of competitiveness
is broadened taking into account environmental and social aspects of production and
consumption.
– The manufacturing industry strongly pursues service-orientation in product design, and the
product becomes less important within the value chain.
– The industry strives for the optimisation of product lifecycles, introducing full lifetime control
and management for their products.
9
Other documents randomly have
different content
3. Each sub-race has, in its turn, seven ramifications, which may be
called “branch” or “family” races.
4. The little tribes, shoots, and offshoots of the last-named are
countless, and depend on Karmic action.
Examine the Genealogical Tree hereto appended, and you will [pg
453] understand. The illustration is purely diagrammatic, and is only
intended to assist the reader in obtaining a slight grasp of the
subject, amidst the confusion which exists between the terms which
have been used at different times for the divisions of Humanity. It is
also here attempted to express in figures—but only within
approximate limits, for the sake of comparison—the duration of time
through which it is possible to definitely distinguish one division from
another. It would only lead to hopeless confusion if any attempt were
made to give accurate dates to a few; for the Races, sub-races, etc.,
down to their smallest ramifications, overlap and are entangled with
each other until it is nearly impossible to separate them.
The Human Race has been compared to a tree, and this serves
admirably as an illustration.
The main stem of a tree may be compared to the Root-Race (a).
Its larger limbs to the various sub-races; seven in number (b
1, b
2,
etc.).
On each of these limbs are seven “branches,” or “family” races (c).
After this the cactus-plant is a better illustration, for its fleshy
“leaves” are covered with sharp spines, each of which may be
compared to a nation or tribe of human beings.
Now our Fifth Root-Race has already been in existence—as a Race sui
generis and quite free from its parent stem—about 1,000,000 years;
therefore it must be inferred that each of the four preceding sub-
races [pg 454] has lived approximately 210,000 years; thus each
family race has an average existence of about 30,000 years, and thus
the European “family race” has still a good many thousand years to
run, although the nations or the innumerable spines upon it, vary
with each succeeding “season” of three or four thousand years. It is
somewhat curious to mark the comparative approximation of duration
between the lives of a “family race” and a Sidereal Year.
The knowledge of the foregoing, and the absolutely correct divisions
of time, formed part and parcel of the Mysteries, where these
Sciences were taught to the Disciples, and where they were
transmitted by one Hierophant to another. Everyone is aware that the
European Astronomers assign—arbitrarily enough—the date of the
invention of the Egyptian Zodiac to the years 2,000 or 2,400 b.c.
(Proctor); and insist that the date of this invention coincides with that
of the erection of the Great Pyramid. This, to an Occultist and Eastern
Astronomer, must appear quite absurd. The Cycle of the Kali Yuga is
said to have begun between the 17th and 18th of February in the
year 3,102 b.c. Now the Hindûs claim that in the year 20,400 before
Kali Yugam, the origin of their Zodiac coincided with the Spring
Equinox—there being at the time a conjunction of the Sun and Moon
—and Bailly proved by a lengthy and careful computation of that
date, that, even if fictitious, the epoch from which they had started to
establish the beginning of their Kali Yuga was very real. That “epoch
is the year 3,102 before our era,” he writes.1009
The lunar eclipse
arriving just a fortnight after the beginning of the Black Age—it took
place in a point situated between the Wheat Ear of Virgo and the star
Θ of the same constellation. One of their most esoteric Cycles is
based upon certain conjunctions and respective positions of Virgo
and the Pleiades (Krittika). Hence, as the Egyptians brought their
Zodiac from Southern India and Lankâ,1010
the esoteric meaning was
evidently identical. The “three Virgins,” or Virgo in three different
positions, meant, with both, the record of the first three “Divine or
Astronomical Dynasties,” who taught the Third Root-Race; and after
having abandoned the Atlanteans to their doom, returned, or
redescended rather, during the third sub-race of the Fifth, in order to
reveal to saved humanity the mysteries of their birth-place—the
Sidereal Heavens. The same symbolical record of the human Races
and the three Dynasties (Gods, Manes—Semi-divine Astrals of the
Third and Fourth—and the Heroes of the Fifth Race) which preceded
[pg 455] the purely human kings, was found in the distribution of the
tiers and passages of the Egyptian Labyrinth. As the three inversions
of the Poles of course changed the face of the Zodiac, a new one had
to be constructed each time. In Mackey's Sphinxiad the speculations
of the bold author must have horrified the orthodox portion of the
population of Norwich, for he says, fantastically enough:
But, after all, the greatest length of time recorded by those
monuments [the Labyrinth, the Pyramids and the Zodiacs] does
not exceed five millions of years:1011
which falls short of the
records given us both by the [esoteric] Chinese and Hindoos:
which latter nation has registered a knowledge of time for
seven or eight millions of years:1012
which I have seen upon a
talisman of porcelain.1013
The Egyptian priests had the Zodiacs of the Atlantean Asura Maya, as
the modern Hindûs still have. As stated in Esoteric Buddhism, the
Egyptians, as well as the Greeks and “Romans” some thousand years
ago, were “remnants of the Atlanto-Âryans”—the former, of the older,
or the Ruta Atlanteans; the last-named, the descendants of the last
race of that island, whose sudden disappearance was narrated to
Solon by the Egyptian Initiates. The human Dynasty of the older
Egyptians, beginning with Menes, had all the knowledge of the
Atlanteans, though there was no longer Atlantean blood in their
veins. Nevertheless, they had preserved all their Archaic Records. All
this has been shown long ago.1014
And it is just because the Egyptian
Zodiac is between 75,000 and 80,000 years old that the Zodiac of the
Greeks is far later. Volney has correctly pointed out that it is only
16,984 years old, or up to the present date 17,082.1015
Conclusion.
Space forbids us to say anything more, and this part of The Secret
Doctrine has to be closed. The forty-nine Stanzas and the few
fragments [pg 456] from the Commentaries which have been given
are all that can be published in these Volumes. These, with some still
older Records—to which none but the highest Initiates have access—
and a whole library of comments, glossaries, and explanations, form
the synopsis of Man's Genesis.
It is from these Commentaries that we have hitherto quoted and
tried to explain the hidden meaning of some of the allegories, thus
showing the true views of Esoteric Antiquity upon Geology,
Anthropology, and even Ethnology. In the Part which follows we will
endeavour to establish a still closer metaphysical connection
between the earliest Races and their Creators, the Divine Men from
other Worlds; accompanying the statements proffered with the most
important demonstrations of the same in Esoteric Astronomy and
Symbolism.
The duration of the “periods” that separate, in space and time, the
Fourth from the Fifth Race—in the historical1016
or even the
legendary beginnings of the latter—is too tremendous for us to offer,
even to a Theosophist, any more detailed accounts of them. During
the course of the Post-diluvian Ages, which were marked at certain
periodical epochs by the most terrible cataclysms, too many races
and nations were born, and disappeared almost without leaving a
trace, for anyone to offer any description of the slightest value
concerning them. Whether the Masters of Wisdom have a full and
consecutive history of our Race from its incipient stage down to the
present times; whether they possess the uninterrupted record of
man since he developed into a complete physical being, and became
thereby the king of the animals and master on this Earth—is not for
the writer to say. Most probably they have, and such is our own
personal conviction. But if so, this knowledge is only for the highest
Initiates, who do not take their students into their confidence. The
writer can, therefore, give but what she has herself been taught,
and no more, and even this will appear to the profane reader rather
as a weird, fantastic dream, than as a possible reality.
This is only natural and as it should be, since for years such was the
impression made upon the humble writer of these pages herself.
Born and bred in European, matter-of-fact and presumably civilized,
countries, she assimilated the foregoing with the utmost difficulty.
But there are proofs of a certain character which become irrefutable
and are undeniable [pg 457] in the long run, to every earnest and
unprejudiced mind. For a series of years such were offered to her,
and now she has the full certitude that our present Globe and its
human Races must have been born, grown and developed in this,
and in no other way.
But this is the personal view of the writer; and her orthodoxy cannot
be expected to have any more weight than any other “doxy,” in the
eyes of those to whom every fresh theory is heterodox until
otherwise proved. Therefore are we Occultists fully prepared for
such questions as these: How do we know that the writer has not
invented the whole scheme? And supposing she has not, how can
one tell that the whole of the foregoing, as given in the Stanzas, is
not the product of the imagination of the ancients? How could they
have preserved the records of such an immense, such an incredible
antiquity?
The answer that the history of this world since its formation and to
its end is “written in the stars,” i.e., is recorded in the Zodiac and
Universal Symbolism, whose keys are in the keeping of the Initiates,
will hardly satisfy the doubters. The antiquity of the Zodiac in Egypt
is much doubted, and it is denied point-blank with regard to India.
“Your conclusions are often excellent, but your premises are always
doubtful,” the writer was once told by a profane friend. To this, the
answer came that it was at least one point gained on scientific
syllogisms, for, with the exception of a few problems from the
domain of purely Physical Science, both the premises and
conclusions of men of Science are as hypothetical as they are almost
invariably erroneous. And if they do not so appear to the profane,
the reason is simply this: the said profane are very little aware,
taking as they do their scientific data on faith, that both premises
and conclusions are generally the product of the same brains, which,
however learned, are not infallible—a truism demonstrated daily by
the shifting and re-shifting of scientific theories and speculations.
However it may be, the records of the temples, zodiacal and
traditional, as well as the ideographic records of the East, as read by
the Adepts of the Sacred Science or Vidyâ, are not a whit more
doubtful than the so-called ancient history of the European nations,
now edited, corrected, and amplified by half a century of
archæological discoveries, and the very problematical readings of
the Assyrian tiles, cuneiform fragments, and Egyptian hieroglyphics.
Our data also are based upon the same “readings”—in addition to an
almost inexhaustible number of secret works of which Europe knows
nothing—plus the perfect knowledge [pg 458] by the Initiates of the
symbolism of every word so recorded. Some of these records belong
to an immense antiquity. Every Archæologist and Palæontologist is
acquainted with the ideographic productions of certain semi-savage
tribes, who from time immemorial have aimed at rendering their
thoughts symbolically. This is the earliest mode of recording events
and ideas. And how old this knowledge is in the human race may be
inferred from some signs, evidently ideographic, found on hatchets
of the Palæolithic period. The Red Indian tribes of America, only a
few years ago, comparatively speaking, petitioned the President of
the United States to grant them possession of four small lakes, the
petition being written on the tiny surface of a piece of fabric, which
was covered with barely a dozen representations of animals and
birds. The American savages have a number of such different kinds
of writing, but not one of our Scientists is yet familiar with, or even
knows of, the early hieroglyphic cypher, still preserved in some
Fraternities, and named in Occultism the Senzar. Moreover, all those
who have decided to regard such modes of writing—e.g., the
ideographs of the Red Indians, and even the Chinese characters—as
“attempts of the early races of mankind to express their untutored
thoughts,” will decidedly object to our statement, that writing was
invented by the Atlanteans, and not at all by the Phœnicians.
Indeed, such a claim as that writing was known to mankind many
hundreds of millenniums ago, in the face of the Philologists who
have decreed that writing was unknown in the days of Pânini, in
India, as also to the Greeks in the time of Homer, will be met by
general disapprobation, if not with silent scorn. All denial and ridicule
notwithstanding, the Occultists will maintain the claim, and simply
for this reason: from Bacon down to our modern Royal Society, we
have too long a period full of the most ludicrous mistakes made by
Science, to warrant our believing in modern scientific assumptions
rather than in the statements of our Teachers. Writing, our Scientists
say, was unknown to Pânini; and this Sage nevertheless composed a
grammar which contains 3,996 rules, and is the most perfect of all
the grammars that were ever made! Pânini is made out to have lived
barely a few centuries b.c., by the most liberal; and the rocks in Iran
and Central Asia—whence the Philologists and Historians show us
the ancestors of the same Pânini, the Brâhmans, coming into India—
are covered with writing, two and three thousand years old, at least,
and twelve thousand, according to some fearless Palæontologists.
[pg 459]
Writing was an ars incognita in the days of Hesiod and Homer,
agreeably to Grote, and was unknown to the Greeks so late as 770
b.c.; and the Phœnicians who had invented it, and knew writing as
far back as 1,500 b.c. at the earliest,1017
were living among the
Greeks, and elbowing them, all the time! All these scientific and
contradictory conclusions disappeared, however, into thin air, when
Schliemann discovered (a) the site of ancient Troy, whose actual
existence had been so long regarded as a fable, and (b) excavated
from that site earthenware vessels with inscriptions in characters
unknown to Palæontologists and the all-denying Sanskritists. Who
will now deny Troy, or these archaic inscriptions? As Professor
Virchow witnesses:
I was myself an eye-witness of two such discoveries, and
helped to gather the articles together. The slanderers have
long since been silenced, who were not ashamed to charge the
discoverer with an imposture.1018
Nor were truthful women spared any more than truthful men. Du
Chaillu, Gordon Cumming, Madame Merian,1019
Bruce, and a host of
others were charged with lying.
Says the author of Mythical Monsters, who gives this information in
the Introduction:1020
Madame Merian was accused of deliberate falsehood in
reference to her description of a bird-eating spider nearly two
hundred years ago. But now-a-days ... reliable observers have
confirmed it in regard to South America, India, and elsewhere.
Audubon was similarly accused by botanists of having invented
the yellow water-lily, which he figured in his Birds of the South
under the name of Nymphæa lutea, and after having lain
under the imputation for years, was confirmed at last by the
discovery of the long-lost flower in Florida ... in ... 1876.1021
And, as Audubon was called a liar for this, and for his Haliætus
Washingtonii,1022
so Victor Hugo was ridiculed for his marvellous
word-painting of the devil-fish, and his description of a man
becoming its helpless victim.
The thing was derided as a monstrous impossibility; yet within
a few years were discovered, on the shores of Newfoundland,
cuttle-fishes with arms extending to [pg 460]thirty feet in
length, and capable of dragging a good-sized boat beneath the
surface; and their action has been reproduced for centuries
past ... by Japanese artists.1023
And if Troy was denied, and regarded as a myth; the existence of
Herculaneum and Pompeii declared a fiction; the travels of Marco
Polo laughed at and called as absurd a fable as one of Baron
Münchausen's tales, why should the writer of Isis Unveiled and of
The Secret Doctrine be any better treated? Mr. Charles Gould, the
author of the above-cited volume quotes, in his excellent work, a
few lines from Macmillan (1860), which are as true as life, and too
much to the point not to be reproduced:
When a naturalist, either by visiting such spots of earth as are
still out of the way, or by his good fortune, finds a very queer
plant or animal, he is forthwith accused of inventing his
game.... As soon as the creature is found to sin against
preconception, the great (mis?) guiding spirit, à priori by
name, who furnishes philosophers with their omniscience pro
re natâ, whispers that no such thing can be, and forthwith
there is a charge of hoax. The heavens themselves have been
charged with hoaxes. When Leverrier and Adams predicted a
planet by calculation, it was gravely asserted in some quarters
that the planet which had been calculated was not the planet
but another which had clandestinely and improperly got into
the neighbourhood of the true body. The disposition to suspect
hoax is stronger than the disposition to hoax. Who was it that
first announced that the classical writings of Greece and Rome
were one huge hoax perpetrated by the monks in what the
announcer would be as little or less inclined than Dr. Maitland
to call the dark ages?1024
Thus let it be. No disbeliever who takes The Secret Doctrine for a
“hoax” is forced, or even asked, to credit our statements, which
have already been proclaimed to be such by certain very clever
American journalists even before the work went to press.1025
Nor, after all, is it necessary that any one should believe in the
Occult Sciences and the Old Teachings, before he knows anything of,
or even believes in his own Soul. No great truth has ever been
accepted à [pg 461]priori, and generally a century or two has passed
before it has begun to glimmer in the human consciousness as a
possible verity, except in such cases as the positive discovery of the
thing claimed as a fact. The truths of to-day are the falsehoods and
errors of yesterday, and vice versà. It is only in the twentieth century
that portions, if not the whole, of the present work will be
vindicated.
It is not destructive of our statements, therefore, even if Sir John
Evans does affirm that writing was unknown in the Stone Age. For it
may have been unknown during that period in the Fifth Âryan Race,
and yet have been perfectly known to the Atlanteans of the Fourth,
in the palmy days of their highest civilization. The cycles of the rise
and fall of nations and races are there to account for it.
If told that there have been cases before now of forged
pseudographs being palmed off on the credulous, and that our work
may be classed with Jacolliot's Bible in India—although, by the way,
there are more truths mixed up with its errors than are found in the
works of orthodox and recognized Orientalists—the charge and
comparison will dismay us very little. We bide our time. Even the
famous Ezour Veda of the last century, considered by Voltaire “the
most precious gift from the East to the West,” and by Max Müller
“about the silliest book that can be read,” is not altogether without
facts and truths in it. The cases when the à priori negations of
specialists have become justified by subsequent corroborations, form
but an insignificant percentage of those that have been fully
vindicated by subsequent discoveries and confirmed, to the great
dismay of the learned objectors. Ezour Veda was a very small bone
of contention compared with the triumph of Sir William Jones,
Anquetil du Perron, and others in the matter of Sanskrit and its
literature. Such facts are recorded by Professor Max Müller himself,
who, speaking of the discomfiture of Dugald Stewart and Co. in
connection with this, states that:
If the facts about Sanskrit were true, Dugald Stewart was too
wise not to see that the conclusions drawn from them were
inevitable. He therefore denied the reality of such a language
as Sanskrit altogether, and wrote his famous essay to prove
that Sanskrit had been put together after the model of Greek
and Latin, by those arch-forgers and liars, the Brâhmans, and
that the whole of Sanskrit literature was an imposition.1026
The writer is quite willing and feels proud to keep company with
these Brâhmans, and other historical “liars,” in the opinion of our
modern Dugald Stewarts. She has lived too long, and her experience
[pg 462] has been too varied and personal, for her not to know at
least something of human nature. “When you doubt, abstain,” says
the wise Zoroaster, whose prudent aphorism is found corroborated in
every case by daily life and experience. Yet, like St. John the Baptist,
this Sage of the past ages is found preaching in the desert, in
company with a more modern Philosopher, namely Bacon, who
offers the same priceless bit of practical wisdom, when saying:
In contemplation [in any question of knowledge, we add], if a
man begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he
will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in
certainties.
With this piece of advice from the father of English Philosophy to the
representatives of British Scepticism we ought to close the debate,
but our Theosophical readers are entitled to a final piece of Occult
information.
Enough has been said to show that evolution in general, events,
mankind, and everything else in Nature proceed in cycles. We have
spoken of seven Races, five of which have nearly completed their
earthly career, and have claimed that every Root-Race, with its sub-
races and innumerable family divisions and tribes, was entirely
distinct from its preceding and succeeding Race. This will be
objected to, on the authority of uniform experience, in the question
of Anthropology and Ethnology. Man—save in colour and type, and
perhaps a difference in facial peculiarities and cranial capacity—has
been ever the same under every climate and in every part of the
world, say the Naturalists; ay, even in stature—this, while
maintaining that man descends from the same unknown ancestor as
the ape; a claim that is logically impossible without an infinite
variation of stature and form from his first evolution into a biped.
The very logical persons who maintain both propositions are
welcome to their paradoxical views. Once more we address only
those who, doubting the general derivation of myths from “the
contemplation of the visible workings of external nature,” think it
Less hard to believe that these wonderful stories of gods and
demi-gods, of giants and dwarfs, of dragons and monsters of
all descriptions, are transformations, than to believe them to
be inventions.
It is only such “transformations” in physical nature, as much as in
the memory and conceptions of our present mankind, that the
Secret Doctrine teaches. It confronts the purely speculative
hypotheses of Modern Science, based upon the experience and
exact observations of [pg 463] barely a few centuries, with the
unbroken tradition and records of its Sanctuaries; and brushing away
that tissue of cobweb-like theories, spun in the darkness that covers
a period of hardly a few millenniums, which Europeans call their
“history,” the Old Science says to us: Listen, now, to my version of
the memoirs of Humanity.
The Human Races are born one from the other, grow, develop,
become old, and die. Their sub-races and nations follow the same
rule. If your all-denying Modern Science and so-called Philosophy do
not contest that the human family is composed of a variety of well-
defined types and races, it is only because the fact is undeniable; no
one would say that there was no external difference between an
Englishman, an African negro, and a Japanese or Chinaman. On the
other hand, it is formally denied by most Naturalists that mixed
human races, i.e., the seeds for entirely new races, are any longer
formed in our days, although indeed the latter is maintained on good
grounds by De Quatrefages and some others.
Nevertheless our general proposition will not be accepted. It will be
said that whatever forms man has passed through in the long pre-
historic past there are no more changes for him—save certain
variations, as at present—in the future. Hence that our Sixth and
Seventh Root-Races are fictions.
To this it is again answered: How do you know? Your experience is
limited to a few thousand years, to less than a day in the whole age
of Humanity and to the present types of the actual continents and
isles of our Fifth Race. How can you tell what will or will not be?
Meanwhile, such is the prophecy of the Secret Books and their not
uncertain statements.
Since the beginning of the Atlantean Race many million years have
passed, yet we find the last of the Atlanteans still mixed up with the
Âryan element, 11,000 years ago. This shows the enormous
overlapping of one Race over the Race which succeeds it, though in
characters and external type the elder loses its characteristics, and
assumes the new features of the younger Race. This is proved in all
the formations of mixed human races. Now, Occult Philosophy
teaches that even now, under our very eyes, the new Race and
races are preparing to be formed, and that it is in America that the
transformation will take place, and has already silently commenced.
Pure Anglo-Saxons hardly three hundred years ago, the Americans of
the United States have already become a nation apart, and, owing
[pg 464] to a strong admixture of various nationalities and inter-
marriage, almost a race sui generis, not only mentally, but also
physically. To quote from De Quatrefages:
Every mixed race, when uniform and settled, has been able to
play the part of a primary race in fresh crossings. Mankind, in
its present state, has thus been formed, certainly for the
greatest part, by the successive crossing of a number of races
at present undetermined.1027
Thus the Americans have become in only three centuries a “primary
race,” temporarily, before becoming a race apart, and strongly
separated from all other now existing races. They are, in short, the
germs of the sixth sub-race, and in some few hundred years more,
will become most decidedly the pioneers of that race which must
succeed to the present European or fifth sub-race, in all its new
characteristics. After this, in about 25,000 years, they will launch
into preparations for the seventh sub-race; until, in consequence of
cataclysms—the first series of those which must one day destroy
Europe, and still later the whole Âryan Race (and thus affect both
Americas), as also most of the lands directly connected with the
confines of our continent and isles—the Sixth Root-Race will have
appeared on the stage of our Round. When shall this be? Who
knows save the great Masters of Wisdom, perchance, and they are
as silent upon the subject as the snow-capped peaks that tower
above them. All we know is, that it will silently come into existence;
so silently, indeed, that for long millenniums will its pioneers—the
peculiar children who will grow into peculiar men and women—be
regarded as anomalous lusûs naturæ, abnormal oddities physically
and mentally. Then, as they increase, and their numbers become
with every age greater, one day they will awake to find themselves
in a majority. Then the present men will begin to be regarded as
exceptional mongrels, until they die out in their turn in civilized
lands, surviving only in small groups on islands—the mountain peaks
of to-day—where they will vegetate, degenerate, and finally die out,
perhaps millions of years hence, as the Aztecs have, as the Nyam-
Nyam and the dwarfish Moola Koorumba of the Nilghiri Hills are
dying. All these are the remnants of once mighty races, the
recollection of whose existence has entirely died out of the
remembrance of modern generations, just as we shall vanish from
the memory of the Sixth Race Humanity. The Fifth will overlap the
Sixth Race for many hundreds of millenniums, changing with it more
slowly than its new successor, [pg 465] still changing in stature,
general physique, and mentality, just as the Fourth overlapped our
Âryan Race, and the Third had overlapped the Atlanteans.
This process of preparation for the Sixth great Race must last
throughout the whole sixth and seventh sub-races.1028
But the last
remnants of the Fifth Continent will not disappear until some time
after the birth of the new Race; when another and new dwelling, the
Sixth Continent, will have appeared above the new waters on the
face of the Globe, so as to receive the new stranger. To it also will
emigrate and there will settle all those who will be fortunate enough
to escape the general disaster. When this shall be—as just said—it is
not for the writer to know. Only, as Nature no more proceeds by
sudden jumps and starts, than man changes suddenly from a child
into a mature man, the final cataclysm will be preceded by many
smaller submersions and destructions both by wave and volcanic
fires. The exultant pulse will beat high in the heart of the race now
in the American zone, but there will be no more Americans when the
Sixth Race commences; no more, in fact, than Europeans; for they
will have now become a new Race, and many new nations. Yet the
Fifth will not die, but will survive for a while; overlapping the new
Race for many hundred thousands of years to come, it will, as we
have just said, become transformed with it more slowly than its new
successor—still getting entirely altered in mentality, general
physique, and stature. Mankind will not grow again into giant bodies
as in the case of the Lemurians and the Atlanteans; because while
the evolution of the Fourth Race led the latter down to the very
bottom of materiality in its physical development, the present Race is
on its ascending arc; and the Sixth will be rapidly growing out of its
bonds of matter, and even of flesh.
Thus it is the mankind of the New World, the senior by far of our Old
one—a fact men had also forgotten—of Pâtâla (the Antipodes, or the
Nether World, as America is called in India), whose mission and
Karma it is, to sow the seeds for a forthcoming, grander, and far
more glorious Race than any of those we know of at present. The
Cycles of Matter will be succeeded by Cycles of Spirituality and a
fully developed mind. On the law of parallel history and races, the
majority of the future mankind will be composed of glorious Adepts.
Humanity is the child of Cyclic Destiny, and not one of its Units can
escape its unconscious [pg 466] mission, or get rid of the burden of
its coöperative work with Nature. Thus will Mankind, race after race,
perform its appointed Cyclic Pilgrimage. Climates will, and have
already begun to, change, each Tropical Year after the other
dropping one sub-race, but only to beget another higher race on the
ascending cycle; while a series of other less favoured groups—the
failures of Nature—will, like some individual men, vanish from the
human family without even leaving a trace behind.
Such is the course of Nature under the sway of Karmic Law; of Ever-
present and Ever-becoming Nature. For, in the words of a Sage,
known only to a few Occultists:
The Present is the child of the Past; the Future, the begotten of the
Present. And yet, O present moment! knowest thou not that thou
hast no parent, nor canst thou have a child; that thou art ever
begetting but thyself? Before thou hast even begun to say “I am the
progeny of the departed moment, the child of the past,” thou hast
become that past itself. Before thou utterest the last syllable,
behold! thou art no more the Present but verily that Future. Thus,
are the Past, the Present, and the Future the Ever-living Trinity in
One—the Mahámâyâ of the Absolute “IS.”
[pg 467]
Part II. The Archaic Symbolism Of The
World-Religions.
[pg 468]
The narratives of the Doctrine are its cloak. The simple look
only at the garment—that is, upon the narrative of the
Doctrine; more they know not. The instructed, however, see
not merely the cloak, but what the cloak covers.—Zohar (iii.
152; Franck, 119).
The Mysteries of the Faith (are) not to be divulged to all.... It is
requisite to hide in a mystery the wisdom spoken.—Stromateis
(12; Clemens Alexandrinus).
[pg 469]
Section I. Esoteric Tenets Corroborated in Every
Scripture.
In view of the strangeness of the teachings, and of many a doctrine
which from the modern scientific standpoint must seem absurd,
some necessary and additional explanations have to be made. The
theories contained in the Stanzas of Volume II are even more
difficult to assimilate than those which are embodied in Volume I, on
Cosmogony. Theology, therefore, has to be questioned here, in Part
II, as Science will be in Part III, for since our doctrines differ so
widely from the current ideas of both Materialism and Theology, the
Occultists must be ever prepared to repel the attacks of either or of
both.
The reader can never be too often reminded that, as the abundant
quotations from various old Scriptures prove, these teachings are as
old as the world; and that the present work is simply an attempt to
render, in modern language and in a phraseology with which the
scientific and educated student is familiar, archaic Genesis and
History as taught in certain Asiatic centres of Esoteric Learning.
These must be accepted or rejected on their own merits, fully or
partially; but not before they have been carefully compared with the
corresponding theological dogmas and the modern scientific theories
and speculations.
One feels serious doubt whether, with all its intellectual acuteness,
our age is destined to discover in each Western nation even one
solitary [pg 470] uninitiated Scholar or Philosopher capable of fully
comprehending the spirit of Archaic Philosophy. Nor can either be
expected to do so, before the real meaning of the Alpha and the
Omega of Eastern Esotericism, the terms Sat and Asat—so freely
used in the Rig Veda and elsewhere—is thoroughly assimilated.
Without this key to Âryan Wisdom, the Cosmogony of the Rishis and
the Arhats is in danger of remaining a dead letter to the average
Orientalist. Asat is not merely the negation of Sat, nor is it the “not
yet existing”; for Sat is in itself neither the “existent,” nor “being.”
Sat is the immutable, the ever-present, changeless, and eternal
Root, from and through which all proceeds. But it is far more than
the potential force in the seed, which propels onward the process of
development, or what is now called evolution. It is the ever
becoming, though the never manifesting.1029
Sat is born from Asat,
and Asat is begotten by Sat—perpetual motion in a circle, truly; yet a
circle that can be squared only at the Supreme Initiation, at the
threshold of Parinirvâna.
Barth started a reflection on the Rig Veda which was meant for a
stern criticism, an unusual, therefore, as was thought, an original,
view of this archaic volume. It so happened, however, that, in his
criticism, this scholar revealed a truth, without being himself aware
of its full importance. He premises by saying that “neither in the
language nor in the thought of the Rig Veda” has he “been able to
discover that quality of primitive natural simplicity, which so many
are fain to see in it.” Barth had Max Müller in his mind's eye when
writing this. For the famous Oxford professor has throughout
characterized the hymns of the Rig Veda, as the unsophisticated
expression of the religious feeling of a pastoral innocent people. “In
the Vedic hymns the ideas and myths appear in their simplest and
freshest form”—the Sanskrit scholar thinks. Barth is of a different
opinion, however.
So divided and personal are the opinions of Sanskritists as to the
importance and intrinsic value of the Rig Veda, that these opinions
become entirely biassed whichever way they incline. Thus Prof. Max
Müller declares that:
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    Advanced manufacturing anICT and systems perspective 1st Edition Marco Taisch Digital Instant Download Author(s): Marco Taisch, Klaus-Dieter Thoben, Marco Montorio ISBN(s): 0415429129 Edition: 1 File Details: PDF, 3.65 MB Year: 2007 Language: english
  • 7.
    ADVANCED MANUFACTURING –AN ICT AND SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE
  • 8.
    BALKEMA – Proceedingsand Monographs in Engineering, Water and Earth Sciences
  • 9.
    Advanced Manufacturing – AnICT and Systems Perspective Editors Marco Taisch Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy Klaus-Dieter Thoben BIBA, University of Bremen, Germany Marco Montorio Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy LONDON / LEIDEN / NEW YORK / PHILADELPHIA / SINGAPORE
  • 10.
    Taylor & Francisis an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK Typeset by Charon Tec Ltd (A Macmillan Company), Chennai, India Printed and bound in Great Britain by Antony Rowe Ltd (CPI-Group), Chippenham, Wiltshire All rights reserved. No part of this publication or the information contained herein may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, by photocopying, recording or otherwise, without written prior permission from the publisher. Although all care is taken to ensure the integrity and quality of this publication and the information herein, no respon- sibility is assumed by the publishers nor the authors or editors for any damage to property or persons as a result of operation or use of this publication and/or the information contained herein. Published by: Taylor & Francis/Balkema P.O. Box 447, 2300 AK Leiden, The Netherlands e-mail: [email protected] www.taylorandfrancis.co.uk/engineering, www.crcpress.com ISBN 13: 978-0-415-42912-2
  • 11.
    Advanced Manufacturing –An ICT and Systems Perspective – Taisch, Thoben & Montorio (eds) © 2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-42912-2 Table of contents Preface IX Part I: Advanced manufacturing: Foresight and roadmapping initiatives The future of manufacturing: Survey of international technology foresight initiatives 3 M. Montorio & M. Taisch The IMS-NoE Delphi survey of ICT in manufacturing 13 M. Montorio & M. Taisch Manufacturing visions: A holistic view of the trends for European manufacturing 23 C. Dreher Part II: Product lifecycle management Product lifecycle management: State-of-the-art, trends and challenges 37 M. Garetti, M. Macchi & S. Terzi SMART-fm: Setting interoperability in SME-based industrial environments 51 R. Jardim-Goncalves, H. Panetto, M. José Nuñez & A. Steiger-Garcao Ubiquitous PLM using Product Embedded Information Devices 65 D. Kiritsis & A. Rolstadås Closed-loop PLM 79 H.-B. Jun, D. Kiritsis & P. Xirouchakis Part III: Sustainable products and processes Sustainable products and processes: Challenges for future research 91 O. Myklebust, D. Kiritsis & T. Lamvik The end-of-life stage of product systems 99 O. Myklebust & T. Lamvik ECO-efficient LIFE-Cycle technologies: From products to service systems 107 T. Lamvik Part IV: Production scheduling and control Manufacturing scheduling and control in the extended enterprise 119 B. Iung & L. Monostori Organising and running real-time, co-operative enterprises 133 L. Monostori, R. Fornasiero & J. Váncza Flexible and responsive cross-organisational interoperability 145 G. Weichhart, S. Oppl & T. Wäfler V
  • 12.
    Part V: Benchmarkingand performance measures Performance measurement systems in manufacturing: State-of-the-art and future trends 159 S. Cavalieri, P. Valckenaers, U. Bititci, R. Bandinelli & K. Mendibil PRODCHAIN: Supporting SMEs participating successfully in production networks 179 R. Roesgen Part VI: Industrial services Industrial services: Challenges for integration and global co-operation with supply chains 187 G. Gudergan & A. Garg Challenges in industrial service business development 199 V . Salminen & P. Kalliokoski Part VII: Human factors and education in manufacturing Human factors research to increase manufacturing productivity and innovation 217 P . Vink & J. Stahre Global education in manufacturing 229 A. Rolstadås Simulation gaming to train engineers to efficiently collaborate in manufacturing networks 239 K.D. Thoben & M. Schwesig Part VIII: Collaborative engineering Co-operative and virtual engineering: A multi-stakeholder roadmap 249 J. Goossenaerts, C. Brecher, F. Possel-Dölken & K. Popplewell Management of dynamic virtual organisations: Results from a collaborative engineering case 263 J. Eschenbächer, F. Graser, K.D. Thoben & B. Tiefensee Integrating the engineering of product, service and organisation within the collaborative enterprise: A roadmap 273 K.-D. Thoben, K. Pawar, M. Pallot & R. Santoro Part IX: Supply chain integration Supply chain integration: State-of-the-art, trends and challenges 283 T. Gulledge, H.-H. Hvolby, C. Sheahan, R. Sommer & K. Steger-Jensen Vendor managed inventory as a supply chain application 289 H.-H. Hvolby & K. Steger-Jensen E-business solutions as supply chain enablers 295 K. Steger-Jensen & H.-H. Hvolby VI
  • 13.
    Web services assupply chain enablers 303 K. Steger-Jensen & H.-H. Hvolby From Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) to Open Resource Planning (ORP): The openfactory project 311 M. Meyer Subject index 317 Author index 319 VII
  • 15.
    Advanced Manufacturing –An ICT and Systems Perspective – Taisch, Thoben & Montorio (eds) © 2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-42912-2 Preface Manufacturing has played, and continues to play, a vital role in the European economy and society, and it will remain a significant generator of wealth in the future. A strong manufacturing industry will indeed continue to be fundamental to creating stable employment inside the European economy. For these reasons the ability to maintain and develop the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry is essential for Europe’s prosperity. This is especially the case at the present time when the risk of de-industrialisation is becoming increasingly serious owing to the growing intensity of competition emerging from low-wage countries, outsourcing and off-shoring trends, and the brain-drain phenomenon. In such circumstances it is important to share a common understanding and create awareness of the new challenges and opportunities for the next generation of manufacturing, and from this, to develop a strategic research agenda and stimulate new research initiatives. This is the rationale behind the preparation and publication of this book on Advanced Manufac- turing, which summarises the results of three years of work within the IMS-NoE project (Network of Excellence on Intelligent Manufacturing Systems). The IMS-NoE, funded by the European Commission, has provided a sound support infrastructure and a stimulating forum for discussion on the future of manufacturing and promoting excellence in manufacturing-related research. The Network consists of over 300 experts in manufacturing, coming not only from the Euro- pean Union, where it originated, but also from other IMS Regions (Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea, Switzerland and the USA). The IMS-NoE owes its success to its multi-regional and multidisciplinary nature. The IMS-NoE brought together the expertise and experience of hundreds of researchers, indus- trial managers and policymakers worldwide and has collected their ideas, forming them into the IMS-NoE Vision on the Future of Manufacturing. This was developed through the organisation of initiatives such as: IMS-NoE Special Interest Group brainstorming meetings (www.ims- noe.org/SIG.asp), the International IMS Forum 2004, a survey on technology foresight projects, a Delphi study on ICT in manufacturing, and a series of workshops on ICT in manufacturing (www.ims-noe.org/FP7.asp), which set the cornerstone for the ICT in manufacturing initiative in the fields of: • ICT to support management of IPR in view of industrial outsourcing/insourcing strategies; • New intelligent and networked products; • The agile wireless manufacturing plant; • New manufacturing technologies for miniaturised ICT; • Strategies for the design and manufacturing of new products. The IMS-NoE activities must be analysed in the global framework of the IMS (Intelligent Man- ufacturing Systems) program (www.ims.org). The IMS Phase I came to an end in 2005 and Phase II started in 2006. This book presents the achievements of the IMS-NoE, and in accordance to the open and col- laborative nature of the Network, integrates these with visionary contributions coming from other initiatives. The result is a broad, but necessarily non-exhaustive, vision on the future of manufacturing, which is here analysed from a system management perspective and with a special focus on IX
  • 16.
    ICT-related matters. Eachcontribution intends to present such a complex and multidisciplinary research domain from a specific perspective, while focusing on a particular research domain. Therefore while Part I: Advanced Manufacturing: Foresight and Roadmapping Initiatives provides an overview of past and continuing technology foresight exercises in manufacturing, the remaining parts will focus on: • Part II: Product Lifecycle Management • Part III: Sustainable Products and Processes • Part IV: Production Scheduling and Control • Part V: Benchmarking and Performance Measures • Part VI: Industrial Services • Part VII: Human Factors and Education in Manufacturing • Part VIII: Collaborative Engineering • Part IX: Supply Chain Integration The ideas presented are nevertheless not intended to be an end in themselves. The book, provoca- tive in its nature, aims at building consensus and also to stimulate fresh discussions, which may lead to novel research initiatives in the future. The editors wish to thank the contributors as well as the European Commission for their support. Marco Taisch IMS NoE Project Co-ordinator Klaus-Dieter Thoben IMS NoE Partner Marco Montorio IMS NoE Project Manager X
  • 17.
    Part I Advanced manufacturing:Foresight and roadmapping initiatives
  • 18.
    The shift fromproduct to service dominance in value chains does not imply that products in the future will not play a critical role in the value creation process. Many human needs are and will always be satisfied in a physical, rather than in a virtual way. What is radically and unavoidably changing is not the role of manufacturing, but the way artefacts are manufactured. The ability of the European production sector to remain competitive in the decades to come depends on its ability to adapt and face future manufacturing challenges. To remain competitive in this rapidly changing context it is vital to understand where to go and how to change. In this respect several technology foresight exercises have been undertaken in Europe, Japan, USA, Korea, Australia, Canada, as well as in other countries, with the intent to understand how to support the manufacturing sector in the transformation from a physical resource-based to a knowledge-based paradigm. Discrepancies among the different studies are symptomatic of the difficulty to delineate a clear vision on the future of manufacturing, especially given the quick and ever increasing pace of technology shifts. Nevertheless, many similarities can be identified and, building on them, it is necessary to delineate a clear strategic research agenda to support manufacturing. This section presents technology foresight, visionary and roadmapping activities in manufactur- ing, which have been undertaken within the IMS-NoE project as well as in the framework of other initiatives, with the intent of identifying similarities and of reaching a common understanding of them. The first two contributions present, respectively, a survey analysis and a Delphi study that were carried on within the IMS-NoE project. The survey investigates past and continuing technology foresight initiatives in manufacturing, taking into consideration projects from several IMS regions (Australia, Canada, European Union, Korea, Japan and USA), and presenting a critical analysis of the developed visions. The Delphi study presents a vision on the future of manufacturing, with a special focus on the impact that ICT will have on next generation production systems. The third contribution deals with the results of the project Manufacturing Visions – Integrating Diverse Perspectives into Pan-European Foresight (ManVis), which started in 2004. Based on sev- eral initiatives such as a Delphi-survey, workshops and interviews with experts, ManVis intends to support the continuing policy process of enhancing the competitiveness of European manufacturing industries. 2
  • 19.
    Advanced Manufacturing –An ICT and Systems Perspective – Taisch, Thoben & Montorio (eds) © 2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-42912-2 The future of manufacturing: Survey of international technology foresight initiatives Marco Montorio & Marco Taisch Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Milano ABSTRACT: This paper surveys several technology foresight initiatives in manufacturing. Research projects from Australia, Canada, European Union, Korea, Japan and USA have been investigated and a critical analysis of the developed visions has been undertaken to identify specific features and common elements. Keywords: Technology foresight, Next-Generation Manufacturing, roadmap, vision. 1 INTRODUCTION Manufacturing remains a key generator of wealth and is still at the heart of the economic growth in industrialised economies. But in recent years manufacturing in developed countries has under- gone profound changes that are bringing it from a resource-based and centralised paradigm to a knowledge-intensive, innovation-based, adaptive, digital and networked one. Given the prominence of manufacturing in developed economies, and being aware of the pro- found shift that it is now facing, the ability to maintain and develop the competitiveness of manufacturing through relevant R&D investments will be essential for the prosperity of indus- trialised countries. This is especially true at the present time when the risk of de-industrialisation is becoming increasingly serious, owing to outsourcing and off-shoring trends and to increased competition coming from low-wage countries, such as China and India. In this complex and rapidly changing environment planning a suitable R&D policy for manufac- turing will be crucial for industrialised countries to face the continuing transition while maintaining their competitive position. 2 MANAGING THE TRANSITION: THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT Recognising the importance of investing in R&D for manufacturing is the first step, but under- standing which areas to invest in and which technologies to research is the heart of the problem. To plan R&D investments it is necessary to envision next generation manufacturing and to understand how enterprises need to change to face future market challenges while remaining competitive. In this sense, technology foresight represents the basis for decision making in R&D strategy. According to Ben Martin (SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research Unit, at the Uni- versity of Sussex – 1995) technology foresight can be defined as an activity which: “involves systematic attempts to look into the longer term future of science, technology, the economy, the environment and society with a view to identifying emerging generic technologies and the under- pinning areas of strategic research likely to yield the greatest economic, social and environmental benefits.” 3
  • 20.
    In the lastdecade great attention has been given to technology foresight in manufacturing and several initiatives have been launched in industrialised countries such asAustralia, Canada, Europe, Japan, Korea and USA, with the intent to develop a vision on the next generation manufacturing and thus to support R&D decisions in manufacturing for the private sector (to guide industrial R&D strategies) and for the public one (to support policy making and funding strategies). Some of the most relevant work carried on in the last decade are: • IMSS – International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (international – 1st round – 1992, 2nd round – 1996, 3rd round – 2000 and 4th round 2004); • NGMP – Next Generation Manufacturing Project (USA - 1995); • VISIONARY 2020 – Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 (USA – 1998); • IMTI – Integrated Manufacturing Technology Initiative (USA – 1998); • IMTR – Integrated Manufacturing Technology Roadmap Project (USA – 2000); • NGMS – Next Generation Manufacturing Systems (European Union, Japan, USA – phase I – 1999 & phase II – 2000); • Informan+ (European Union – 2000); • FORESIGHT 2020 (UK – 2000); • VISION 2025 (KOREA – 2000); • FutMan – The Future of Manufacturing in Europe, 2015 – 2020 (European Union – 2003); • ManuFuture (European Union – 2003); • MANU 20/20 – Manufacturing in 2020 (CANADA - 2004); • MANU INITIATIVE – The Manufacturing Initiative (USA – 2004); • ManVis – ManufacturingVisions – Integrating Diverse Perspectives into Pan-European Foresight (European Union – 2004). 3 SURVEY OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT INITIATIVES IN MANUFACTURING Some of the above initiatives have been analysed to identify specific features and common elements. TheManVis andtheManuFuture initiativesarepresentedelsewhereinthebook, soarenotdiscussed furtherinthispaper. Inthefollowingthereareintroductionstoaselectionoftheanalysedtechnology foresight projects. The projects, presented in chronological order, have been selected to highlight the evolution and the profound changes which manufacturing has been facing in industrialised countries in the last decade. 3.1 Next-Generation Manufacturing Project – USA (1995) The Next-Generation Manufacturing Project (NGMP), started in 1995, aimed at developing a framework which US manufacturers could use as a guide to understand the future market and the necessary counteractions to remain competitive. NGMP was funded by the National Science Foundation, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, the Department of Defence, the Department of Energy and 10 other associations. Close to 500 experts, from more than 100 companies, industry associations, government agencies and academic institutions participated in the initiative. NGMP output is structured into Drivers, Attributes, Dilemmas, Imperatives and Action Plan Recommendations. The drivers represent the forces that will shape the future competitive environment that manu- facturing organisations will have to compete in. Among them, particular relevance is given to: • The continuous development of ICT, which will allow information to be universally and instantaneously available. • The worldwide spread of scientific education. • More competitive markets. • A general increase in customer expectations. • A higher environmental responsibility and consciousness of resource limitations. 4
  • 21.
    To remain competitive,and in response to the described drivers, manufacturing enterprises will have to develop specific attributes, such as: • More intimate relationship with the customer, thus achieving customer responsiveness and even anticipating customers’ requirements in terms of products and services. • Flexible, adaptable and responsive processes, equipment, plants, human resources and strategies. • Intra- and inter- enterprise team working and ability to face increasing problem complexity. Manydesiredattributesofthefuturevisionareinapparentconflict.Thishighlightstheemergence of some dilemmas (or key barriers), that on the other side may also represent opportunities for achieving competitive advantages. NGMP identified three kinds of dilemmas. • For the enterprise the dilemmas will be: How to guarantee employee security and loyalty within rapid skill shifts, turnover in the labour force and a flexible workforce? How to achieve collabora- tive knowledge sharing within knowledge-based competition? How to control core competencies without owning them? How to recover rising plant and equipment costs with shorter product and process lifetime? How to profit from long-term relationships when customers, suppliers and partners are becoming less loyal? • For the nation the dilemmas will be: How to keep domestic jobs while developing global markets? How to deal with transnational corporations? • For the individual the dilemmas will be: How to have good jobs with individual security while employed in flexible workplaces? The dilemmas can be overcome through the identified imperatives, that is, practices and technology solutions, grouped into four categories: people-related, business process-related, technology-related and integration-related. All the imperatives are strongly interdependent; there is a need to simultaneously address all actions from an integrated people, business process and technology viewpoint across all elements of the enterprise to realise the desired objectives. People-related imperatives stress the importance of: a flexible workforce, which includes not only the individual worker, but also the workplace and government policy; and knowledge sup- ply chains, which must provide and spread knowledge among industry, university, school and associations. Concerningbusinessprocesses, NGMPunderlinedtheneedforrapidproduct/processrealisation, innovation and change management; a necessity given rapidly changing environment and customer expectations. This search for flexibility, adaptability to customer requirements, and short time to market will be enabled by re-configurable, scalable and cost effective processes and equipment, pervasive modelling and simulation, and adaptive, responsive information systems. The increasing range of knowledge and competencies needed to produce products or services or both will drive a growing integration; this has to be viewed from two perspectives: integration and collaboration among companies, which are grouped in extended enterprises, and integration within the company, among people, information, business practices and processes. NGMP addressed all the stakeholders involved (enterprises, industry associations, academia, government and individuals) introducing several cross-cutting action plan recommendations, such as the need to: develop systematic processes for knowledge capture and knowledge-based man- ufacturing; establish a government partnership with industry and academia for a supportive manufacturing infrastructure; enable and promote pervasive use of modelling and simulation; and develop intelligent processes and flexible manufacturing systems. 3.2 Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 – USA (1998) www.nap.edu/html/visionary The Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 initiative aimed to identify key R&D areas for investments to support US manufacturing. Funded by the National Research Council in 1998, it convened a committee of manufacturing and technology experts, with representatives from small, medium and large companies from a variety of industries. 5
  • 22.
    Starting from theNext Generation Manufacturing Project and other roadmapping initiatives in manufacturing, Visionary 2020 relied on an international Delphi survey that helped the committee to prioritise future industry needs. Above all, Visionary 2020 underlined the need for a strong collaboration among research centres, academia, industry, and government institutions as a critical success factor to keep US manufacturing competitive in the global market. Visionary 2020 depicted a vision of the future competitive environment that will be charac- terised by: • A growing development and diffusion of information and communication technologies which will allow the instantaneous availability of knowledge and information. • In turn this will bring to a sophisticated, global and highly competitive market, where enterprises must base their success on continuous innovation, a skilled workforce and knowledge sharing. • A higher customer demand for customised products and services, which will push the enterprise to be flexible and rapid in its responses. • An increased sensitivity to environmental protection, which will be essential for the global ecosystem. The changed market competition can be faced only by tackling the so called Six Grand Challenges, which are: 1. Concurrent manufacturing. Concurrent manufacturing reduces time to market, encourages innovation and improves quality. Concurrency in all operations needs new technologies in process management and in rapid prototyping, and more flexible machines and interactive computer networks that will allow skilled workers to share knowledge. 2. Integration of human and technical resources. Technologies will be adaptable to the changing needs of the market, and people will have the know-how to optimise and enhance them. Indi- vidual workers will continue to specialise and will share their knowledge with the other workers in networks that will include suppliers, partners and customers. Factory organisation will be less structured, allowing workers to reorganise themselves, the equipment and the processes to meet customer demands. 3. Conversion of information to knowledge. Enterprises will need to instantaneously transform information from a vast array of diverse sources into useful knowledge and effective decisions, and to make this knowledge available to users (human and machine) instantaneously. 4. Environmental compatibility. Production waste and product environmental impact will be reduced to near zero. This challenge can be won through developing cost-effective products and processes that do not harm the environment, using recycled materials and minimising wastes in terms of energy, material and human resources. A proactive approach is needed, with a strong collaboration among governments, academia and enterprises. 5. Re-configurable enterprises. In response to the changing customer demand for customised products and services, enterprises will need to reorganise themselves, rapidly forming and dissolving alliances with other organisations and teams within the enterprise. 6. Innovative processes. New concepts need to be applied to manufacturing operations, lead- ing to dramatic changes in production capabilities. Great attention needs to be given to nanotechnologies and biotechnologies. Visionary 2020 have identified some key technology research areas. These are: adaptable and re-configurable systems; technologies for the minimisation of waste and energy consump- tion; biotechnology and nano-technology; modelling and simulation; product and process design methods; human-machine interfaces; technologies to convert information into knowledge for effective decision making; new educational and training methods; and software for intelligent collaboration systems. 6
  • 23.
    3.3 IMTI –IMTR – USA (1998 – 2000) www.IMTI21.org The Integrated Manufacturing Technology Roadmap (IMTR) project was launched in 1998 by the National Institute of Standards andTechnology, the US Department of Energy, the National Science Foundation and the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency with the intent to produce an integratedsuiteofplanstohelpandguidenationalmanufacturingtechnologyinvestments. Sixgrand challenges, which should be faced to stay competitive in the future manufacturing environment, and four technological areas, needed to win these challenges, were identified. IMTR represented a planning phase and was followed in 2000 by the Integrated Manufacturing Technology Initiative (IMTI), the implementation phase, which aims at stimulating the implementa- tion of high-priority R&D projects to support the goals outlined by IMTR. IMTI serves as a point of synergy for manufacturers, technology suppliers, research organisations, universities, associations and consortia, to promote co-operation and to facilitate collaborative development of high-priority technologies. Based on existing roadmaps, for example NGMP, Visionary 2020, and Internet-based surveys, the entire project involved more than 300 individuals, representing over 150 organisations. The developed vision shows a competitive environment characterised by dynamics and uncertainty, an accelerated pace of technological change, growing customer expectations, and competition among extended enterprise. The above mentioned six grand challenges are: 1. Lean, Efficient Enterprises: enterprises will integrate business process improvements and work- force performance enhancements with new technologies that raise manufacturing to a new level of efficiency. 2. Customer-Responsive Enterprises: future manufacturing enterprises will leverage a global communications infrastructure and customer-centric design, manufacturing, and lifecycle man- agement systems to conceive, build, deliver, and support innovative products and services that directly satisfy diverse customers’ needs. 3. Connected Enterprises: future manufacturing enterprises will be interconnected among all their internal functions and external partners, suppliers and customers; these extended enterprises will inter-operate as an integrated entity, irrespective of geographic boundaries. 4. Environmental Sustainability: manufacturers will face conflicts between the drive to industri- alise and the need to protect the global environment; this problem must be addressed, developing innovative materials, zero net lifecycle waste management, and recycling products, with no negative impacts to the environment. 5. Knowledge Management: future manufacturing enterprises will be able to capture individual expertise and experience for efficient reuse and draw on a rich, openly accessible shared base of scientific, business, and process knowledge to make accurate decisions and ensure that the right people get the right information at the right time. 6. Technology Exploitation: it is important to identify and master the right technologies, which will give competitive advantages. Among them: nano-technology, Internet, computers and electronics, polymers, plasma physics. Four technological areas were identified to achieve and win the six grand challenges: information systems for manufacturing, modelling and simulation, manufacturing processes and equipment, technologies for enterprise integration. 3.4 Next Generation Manufacturing Systems Program – European Union, Japan, USA (Phase I – 2000; Phase II – 2003) http://cam-istandards.org/ngms.html The Next Generation Manufacturing Systems Program is made up by an international consortium drawing together 22 companies and 11 research groups in the USA, Europe and Japan. For NGMS the future environment, which manufacturing enterprises will have to compete in, is characterised by strategies based on global networks of self-organising, autonomous units. These 7
  • 24.
    units may bepart of one company, or part of several companies, located globally, all co-operating to address customers’ requirements. These networks of companies need to rapidly adapt to changing requirements, new technologies and increased globalisation; shorter response times will not allow for experimentation and iteration with real artefacts, so all decisions will be made on the basis of modelling and simulation, rather than build-and-test methods. The entire supply chain (or virtual enterprise) will be modelled and simulated before actual operation allowing choices to be tried and evaluated quickly. The Next Generation Manufacturing Enterprise will be characterised by: • Re-configurability: the ability for fast adaptation to erratic and unpredictable environment changes; • Capability of development: the ability to make evolutionary adaptations; • Capability to manage turbulence: the ability to create and control turbulence in defined, demarcated markets; • Capability to realise changes: the ability and the readiness of all employees to change internal structures; • Evolutionary capability: the ability to continuously change through analysing and learning from the weaknesses and potencies of the past; • Uniqueness: permanent differentiation compared to competitors; • Focus on core competencies: competencies to produce unique core products, not only with knowledge, but also with wide practical experience. (Source: NGMS White Paper). 3.5 FutMan – European Union (2003) http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/industrial_technologies/articles/article_410_en.html The FutMan project sought to assist the European Commission in examining what technological, knowledge and organisational capabilities might be required by European manufacturing to remain competitive and sustainable by the year 2020. Particular attention was paid to technological priority areas and to any policy changes required. FutMan enabled the creation of a forum of manufacturing experts who participated, among other activities, in a scenario generation exercise with the intent to develop coherent long-term visions of European manufacturing in 2015–2020 which could be used as a basis for strategic planning. The scenarios represent imaginative, coherent views on potential socio-economic and technological developments in the future that are likely to shape the European manufacturing sector. Each scenario includes technological, economic, environmental and socio-political factors. Four individual scenarios were developed, structured along two qualitative dimensions of change. The first dimension refers to policy making and specifically to the balance between central and decentralised decision-making in Europe, and to the co-ordination level between different policy areas. The second dimension refers to the extent to which social and environmental consciousness and public values will impact on future consumer behaviours and demand patterns. The four scenarios, synthesised in terms of scenario features and implications for manufacturing, are: Global Economy • Scenario features: – Global governance: World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the interests of large multinational companies shape international trade policies. Policy-making principally aims to strengthen market mechanisms and competition. Little co-ordination of policies among nations. – Consumer: consumers pursue personal utility without paying too much attention to environ- mental and social impacts of production and consumption. • Manufacturing implications: – Manufacturers focus on customisation and individualisation of products. – The engineering processes are assumed to be quick and flexible. 8
  • 25.
    loose concerted Sustainable Times Local Standard Global Economy Focus Europe collective individual public values andconsumer behaviour integration of SD - relevant policies Sustainable Times Local Standard Global Economy Focus Europe public values and consumer behaviour int egr ati on of SD rel eva nt pol icie s SD: Sustainable Development Figure 1. FutMan scenarios (Source: FutMan – The Future of Manufacturing in Europe 2015–2020 – The Challenge for Sustainability – Final Report). – The scenario favours short-term industrial research activities. – Sustainability improvements are just a second-order effect owing to the search for energy consumption efficiency. Local Standard • Scenario features – Global governance: new global protectionism, local authorities have gained new powers. Regional governments determine policy priorities and drive regulation. – Consumer: consumers and citizen groups (organised in Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs)) push their agendas on local environmental issues. • Manufacturing implications – High innovation dynamic on a regional level but disparities among regions. – Regional peculiarities lead to a complex environment where centralisation and decentralisation of manufacturing operations will coexist depending on sectors, processes and products. – Regional demand structures require new solutions for flexible specialisation in manufacturing. Sustainable Times • Scenario features – Global governance: a global governance system has emerged that promotes sustainable development and environmental protection worldwide. – Consumer: citizens support government co-ordination to reconcile the economic, environ- mental, and social dimensions of sustainability. • Manufacturing implications – Industry is a partner, closely collaborating with governments and the civil society. Emphasis is given to socially responsible technology development. The notion of competitiveness is broadened taking into account environmental and social aspects of production and consumption. – The manufacturing industry strongly pursues service-orientation in product design, and the product becomes less important within the value chain. – The industry strives for the optimisation of product lifecycles, introducing full lifetime control and management for their products. 9
  • 26.
    Other documents randomlyhave different content
  • 27.
    3. Each sub-racehas, in its turn, seven ramifications, which may be called “branch” or “family” races. 4. The little tribes, shoots, and offshoots of the last-named are countless, and depend on Karmic action. Examine the Genealogical Tree hereto appended, and you will [pg 453] understand. The illustration is purely diagrammatic, and is only intended to assist the reader in obtaining a slight grasp of the subject, amidst the confusion which exists between the terms which have been used at different times for the divisions of Humanity. It is also here attempted to express in figures—but only within approximate limits, for the sake of comparison—the duration of time through which it is possible to definitely distinguish one division from another. It would only lead to hopeless confusion if any attempt were made to give accurate dates to a few; for the Races, sub-races, etc., down to their smallest ramifications, overlap and are entangled with each other until it is nearly impossible to separate them.
  • 28.
    The Human Racehas been compared to a tree, and this serves admirably as an illustration. The main stem of a tree may be compared to the Root-Race (a). Its larger limbs to the various sub-races; seven in number (b 1, b 2, etc.).
  • 29.
    On each ofthese limbs are seven “branches,” or “family” races (c). After this the cactus-plant is a better illustration, for its fleshy “leaves” are covered with sharp spines, each of which may be compared to a nation or tribe of human beings. Now our Fifth Root-Race has already been in existence—as a Race sui generis and quite free from its parent stem—about 1,000,000 years; therefore it must be inferred that each of the four preceding sub- races [pg 454] has lived approximately 210,000 years; thus each family race has an average existence of about 30,000 years, and thus the European “family race” has still a good many thousand years to run, although the nations or the innumerable spines upon it, vary with each succeeding “season” of three or four thousand years. It is somewhat curious to mark the comparative approximation of duration between the lives of a “family race” and a Sidereal Year. The knowledge of the foregoing, and the absolutely correct divisions of time, formed part and parcel of the Mysteries, where these Sciences were taught to the Disciples, and where they were transmitted by one Hierophant to another. Everyone is aware that the European Astronomers assign—arbitrarily enough—the date of the invention of the Egyptian Zodiac to the years 2,000 or 2,400 b.c. (Proctor); and insist that the date of this invention coincides with that of the erection of the Great Pyramid. This, to an Occultist and Eastern Astronomer, must appear quite absurd. The Cycle of the Kali Yuga is said to have begun between the 17th and 18th of February in the year 3,102 b.c. Now the Hindûs claim that in the year 20,400 before Kali Yugam, the origin of their Zodiac coincided with the Spring Equinox—there being at the time a conjunction of the Sun and Moon —and Bailly proved by a lengthy and careful computation of that date, that, even if fictitious, the epoch from which they had started to establish the beginning of their Kali Yuga was very real. That “epoch is the year 3,102 before our era,” he writes.1009 The lunar eclipse arriving just a fortnight after the beginning of the Black Age—it took place in a point situated between the Wheat Ear of Virgo and the star
  • 30.
    Θ of thesame constellation. One of their most esoteric Cycles is based upon certain conjunctions and respective positions of Virgo and the Pleiades (Krittika). Hence, as the Egyptians brought their Zodiac from Southern India and Lankâ,1010 the esoteric meaning was evidently identical. The “three Virgins,” or Virgo in three different positions, meant, with both, the record of the first three “Divine or Astronomical Dynasties,” who taught the Third Root-Race; and after having abandoned the Atlanteans to their doom, returned, or redescended rather, during the third sub-race of the Fifth, in order to reveal to saved humanity the mysteries of their birth-place—the Sidereal Heavens. The same symbolical record of the human Races and the three Dynasties (Gods, Manes—Semi-divine Astrals of the Third and Fourth—and the Heroes of the Fifth Race) which preceded [pg 455] the purely human kings, was found in the distribution of the tiers and passages of the Egyptian Labyrinth. As the three inversions of the Poles of course changed the face of the Zodiac, a new one had to be constructed each time. In Mackey's Sphinxiad the speculations of the bold author must have horrified the orthodox portion of the population of Norwich, for he says, fantastically enough: But, after all, the greatest length of time recorded by those monuments [the Labyrinth, the Pyramids and the Zodiacs] does not exceed five millions of years:1011 which falls short of the records given us both by the [esoteric] Chinese and Hindoos: which latter nation has registered a knowledge of time for seven or eight millions of years:1012 which I have seen upon a talisman of porcelain.1013 The Egyptian priests had the Zodiacs of the Atlantean Asura Maya, as the modern Hindûs still have. As stated in Esoteric Buddhism, the Egyptians, as well as the Greeks and “Romans” some thousand years ago, were “remnants of the Atlanto-Âryans”—the former, of the older, or the Ruta Atlanteans; the last-named, the descendants of the last race of that island, whose sudden disappearance was narrated to Solon by the Egyptian Initiates. The human Dynasty of the older
  • 31.
    Egyptians, beginning withMenes, had all the knowledge of the Atlanteans, though there was no longer Atlantean blood in their veins. Nevertheless, they had preserved all their Archaic Records. All this has been shown long ago.1014 And it is just because the Egyptian Zodiac is between 75,000 and 80,000 years old that the Zodiac of the Greeks is far later. Volney has correctly pointed out that it is only 16,984 years old, or up to the present date 17,082.1015
  • 33.
    Conclusion. Space forbids usto say anything more, and this part of The Secret Doctrine has to be closed. The forty-nine Stanzas and the few fragments [pg 456] from the Commentaries which have been given are all that can be published in these Volumes. These, with some still older Records—to which none but the highest Initiates have access— and a whole library of comments, glossaries, and explanations, form the synopsis of Man's Genesis. It is from these Commentaries that we have hitherto quoted and tried to explain the hidden meaning of some of the allegories, thus showing the true views of Esoteric Antiquity upon Geology, Anthropology, and even Ethnology. In the Part which follows we will endeavour to establish a still closer metaphysical connection between the earliest Races and their Creators, the Divine Men from other Worlds; accompanying the statements proffered with the most important demonstrations of the same in Esoteric Astronomy and Symbolism. The duration of the “periods” that separate, in space and time, the Fourth from the Fifth Race—in the historical1016 or even the legendary beginnings of the latter—is too tremendous for us to offer, even to a Theosophist, any more detailed accounts of them. During the course of the Post-diluvian Ages, which were marked at certain periodical epochs by the most terrible cataclysms, too many races and nations were born, and disappeared almost without leaving a trace, for anyone to offer any description of the slightest value concerning them. Whether the Masters of Wisdom have a full and consecutive history of our Race from its incipient stage down to the present times; whether they possess the uninterrupted record of man since he developed into a complete physical being, and became
  • 34.
    thereby the kingof the animals and master on this Earth—is not for the writer to say. Most probably they have, and such is our own personal conviction. But if so, this knowledge is only for the highest Initiates, who do not take their students into their confidence. The writer can, therefore, give but what she has herself been taught, and no more, and even this will appear to the profane reader rather as a weird, fantastic dream, than as a possible reality. This is only natural and as it should be, since for years such was the impression made upon the humble writer of these pages herself. Born and bred in European, matter-of-fact and presumably civilized, countries, she assimilated the foregoing with the utmost difficulty. But there are proofs of a certain character which become irrefutable and are undeniable [pg 457] in the long run, to every earnest and unprejudiced mind. For a series of years such were offered to her, and now she has the full certitude that our present Globe and its human Races must have been born, grown and developed in this, and in no other way. But this is the personal view of the writer; and her orthodoxy cannot be expected to have any more weight than any other “doxy,” in the eyes of those to whom every fresh theory is heterodox until otherwise proved. Therefore are we Occultists fully prepared for such questions as these: How do we know that the writer has not invented the whole scheme? And supposing she has not, how can one tell that the whole of the foregoing, as given in the Stanzas, is not the product of the imagination of the ancients? How could they have preserved the records of such an immense, such an incredible antiquity? The answer that the history of this world since its formation and to its end is “written in the stars,” i.e., is recorded in the Zodiac and Universal Symbolism, whose keys are in the keeping of the Initiates, will hardly satisfy the doubters. The antiquity of the Zodiac in Egypt is much doubted, and it is denied point-blank with regard to India. “Your conclusions are often excellent, but your premises are always
  • 35.
    doubtful,” the writerwas once told by a profane friend. To this, the answer came that it was at least one point gained on scientific syllogisms, for, with the exception of a few problems from the domain of purely Physical Science, both the premises and conclusions of men of Science are as hypothetical as they are almost invariably erroneous. And if they do not so appear to the profane, the reason is simply this: the said profane are very little aware, taking as they do their scientific data on faith, that both premises and conclusions are generally the product of the same brains, which, however learned, are not infallible—a truism demonstrated daily by the shifting and re-shifting of scientific theories and speculations. However it may be, the records of the temples, zodiacal and traditional, as well as the ideographic records of the East, as read by the Adepts of the Sacred Science or Vidyâ, are not a whit more doubtful than the so-called ancient history of the European nations, now edited, corrected, and amplified by half a century of archæological discoveries, and the very problematical readings of the Assyrian tiles, cuneiform fragments, and Egyptian hieroglyphics. Our data also are based upon the same “readings”—in addition to an almost inexhaustible number of secret works of which Europe knows nothing—plus the perfect knowledge [pg 458] by the Initiates of the symbolism of every word so recorded. Some of these records belong to an immense antiquity. Every Archæologist and Palæontologist is acquainted with the ideographic productions of certain semi-savage tribes, who from time immemorial have aimed at rendering their thoughts symbolically. This is the earliest mode of recording events and ideas. And how old this knowledge is in the human race may be inferred from some signs, evidently ideographic, found on hatchets of the Palæolithic period. The Red Indian tribes of America, only a few years ago, comparatively speaking, petitioned the President of the United States to grant them possession of four small lakes, the petition being written on the tiny surface of a piece of fabric, which was covered with barely a dozen representations of animals and birds. The American savages have a number of such different kinds of writing, but not one of our Scientists is yet familiar with, or even
  • 36.
    knows of, theearly hieroglyphic cypher, still preserved in some Fraternities, and named in Occultism the Senzar. Moreover, all those who have decided to regard such modes of writing—e.g., the ideographs of the Red Indians, and even the Chinese characters—as “attempts of the early races of mankind to express their untutored thoughts,” will decidedly object to our statement, that writing was invented by the Atlanteans, and not at all by the Phœnicians. Indeed, such a claim as that writing was known to mankind many hundreds of millenniums ago, in the face of the Philologists who have decreed that writing was unknown in the days of Pânini, in India, as also to the Greeks in the time of Homer, will be met by general disapprobation, if not with silent scorn. All denial and ridicule notwithstanding, the Occultists will maintain the claim, and simply for this reason: from Bacon down to our modern Royal Society, we have too long a period full of the most ludicrous mistakes made by Science, to warrant our believing in modern scientific assumptions rather than in the statements of our Teachers. Writing, our Scientists say, was unknown to Pânini; and this Sage nevertheless composed a grammar which contains 3,996 rules, and is the most perfect of all the grammars that were ever made! Pânini is made out to have lived barely a few centuries b.c., by the most liberal; and the rocks in Iran and Central Asia—whence the Philologists and Historians show us the ancestors of the same Pânini, the Brâhmans, coming into India— are covered with writing, two and three thousand years old, at least, and twelve thousand, according to some fearless Palæontologists. [pg 459] Writing was an ars incognita in the days of Hesiod and Homer, agreeably to Grote, and was unknown to the Greeks so late as 770 b.c.; and the Phœnicians who had invented it, and knew writing as far back as 1,500 b.c. at the earliest,1017 were living among the Greeks, and elbowing them, all the time! All these scientific and contradictory conclusions disappeared, however, into thin air, when Schliemann discovered (a) the site of ancient Troy, whose actual existence had been so long regarded as a fable, and (b) excavated from that site earthenware vessels with inscriptions in characters
  • 37.
    unknown to Palæontologistsand the all-denying Sanskritists. Who will now deny Troy, or these archaic inscriptions? As Professor Virchow witnesses: I was myself an eye-witness of two such discoveries, and helped to gather the articles together. The slanderers have long since been silenced, who were not ashamed to charge the discoverer with an imposture.1018 Nor were truthful women spared any more than truthful men. Du Chaillu, Gordon Cumming, Madame Merian,1019 Bruce, and a host of others were charged with lying. Says the author of Mythical Monsters, who gives this information in the Introduction:1020 Madame Merian was accused of deliberate falsehood in reference to her description of a bird-eating spider nearly two hundred years ago. But now-a-days ... reliable observers have confirmed it in regard to South America, India, and elsewhere. Audubon was similarly accused by botanists of having invented the yellow water-lily, which he figured in his Birds of the South under the name of Nymphæa lutea, and after having lain under the imputation for years, was confirmed at last by the discovery of the long-lost flower in Florida ... in ... 1876.1021 And, as Audubon was called a liar for this, and for his Haliætus Washingtonii,1022 so Victor Hugo was ridiculed for his marvellous word-painting of the devil-fish, and his description of a man becoming its helpless victim.
  • 38.
    The thing wasderided as a monstrous impossibility; yet within a few years were discovered, on the shores of Newfoundland, cuttle-fishes with arms extending to [pg 460]thirty feet in length, and capable of dragging a good-sized boat beneath the surface; and their action has been reproduced for centuries past ... by Japanese artists.1023 And if Troy was denied, and regarded as a myth; the existence of Herculaneum and Pompeii declared a fiction; the travels of Marco Polo laughed at and called as absurd a fable as one of Baron Münchausen's tales, why should the writer of Isis Unveiled and of The Secret Doctrine be any better treated? Mr. Charles Gould, the author of the above-cited volume quotes, in his excellent work, a few lines from Macmillan (1860), which are as true as life, and too much to the point not to be reproduced: When a naturalist, either by visiting such spots of earth as are still out of the way, or by his good fortune, finds a very queer plant or animal, he is forthwith accused of inventing his game.... As soon as the creature is found to sin against preconception, the great (mis?) guiding spirit, à priori by name, who furnishes philosophers with their omniscience pro re natâ, whispers that no such thing can be, and forthwith there is a charge of hoax. The heavens themselves have been charged with hoaxes. When Leverrier and Adams predicted a planet by calculation, it was gravely asserted in some quarters that the planet which had been calculated was not the planet but another which had clandestinely and improperly got into the neighbourhood of the true body. The disposition to suspect hoax is stronger than the disposition to hoax. Who was it that first announced that the classical writings of Greece and Rome were one huge hoax perpetrated by the monks in what the announcer would be as little or less inclined than Dr. Maitland to call the dark ages?1024
  • 39.
    Thus let itbe. No disbeliever who takes The Secret Doctrine for a “hoax” is forced, or even asked, to credit our statements, which have already been proclaimed to be such by certain very clever American journalists even before the work went to press.1025 Nor, after all, is it necessary that any one should believe in the Occult Sciences and the Old Teachings, before he knows anything of, or even believes in his own Soul. No great truth has ever been accepted à [pg 461]priori, and generally a century or two has passed before it has begun to glimmer in the human consciousness as a possible verity, except in such cases as the positive discovery of the thing claimed as a fact. The truths of to-day are the falsehoods and errors of yesterday, and vice versà. It is only in the twentieth century that portions, if not the whole, of the present work will be vindicated. It is not destructive of our statements, therefore, even if Sir John Evans does affirm that writing was unknown in the Stone Age. For it may have been unknown during that period in the Fifth Âryan Race, and yet have been perfectly known to the Atlanteans of the Fourth, in the palmy days of their highest civilization. The cycles of the rise and fall of nations and races are there to account for it. If told that there have been cases before now of forged pseudographs being palmed off on the credulous, and that our work may be classed with Jacolliot's Bible in India—although, by the way, there are more truths mixed up with its errors than are found in the works of orthodox and recognized Orientalists—the charge and comparison will dismay us very little. We bide our time. Even the famous Ezour Veda of the last century, considered by Voltaire “the most precious gift from the East to the West,” and by Max Müller “about the silliest book that can be read,” is not altogether without facts and truths in it. The cases when the à priori negations of specialists have become justified by subsequent corroborations, form but an insignificant percentage of those that have been fully vindicated by subsequent discoveries and confirmed, to the great
  • 40.
    dismay of thelearned objectors. Ezour Veda was a very small bone of contention compared with the triumph of Sir William Jones, Anquetil du Perron, and others in the matter of Sanskrit and its literature. Such facts are recorded by Professor Max Müller himself, who, speaking of the discomfiture of Dugald Stewart and Co. in connection with this, states that: If the facts about Sanskrit were true, Dugald Stewart was too wise not to see that the conclusions drawn from them were inevitable. He therefore denied the reality of such a language as Sanskrit altogether, and wrote his famous essay to prove that Sanskrit had been put together after the model of Greek and Latin, by those arch-forgers and liars, the Brâhmans, and that the whole of Sanskrit literature was an imposition.1026 The writer is quite willing and feels proud to keep company with these Brâhmans, and other historical “liars,” in the opinion of our modern Dugald Stewarts. She has lived too long, and her experience [pg 462] has been too varied and personal, for her not to know at least something of human nature. “When you doubt, abstain,” says the wise Zoroaster, whose prudent aphorism is found corroborated in every case by daily life and experience. Yet, like St. John the Baptist, this Sage of the past ages is found preaching in the desert, in company with a more modern Philosopher, namely Bacon, who offers the same priceless bit of practical wisdom, when saying: In contemplation [in any question of knowledge, we add], if a man begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties. With this piece of advice from the father of English Philosophy to the representatives of British Scepticism we ought to close the debate,
  • 41.
    but our Theosophicalreaders are entitled to a final piece of Occult information. Enough has been said to show that evolution in general, events, mankind, and everything else in Nature proceed in cycles. We have spoken of seven Races, five of which have nearly completed their earthly career, and have claimed that every Root-Race, with its sub- races and innumerable family divisions and tribes, was entirely distinct from its preceding and succeeding Race. This will be objected to, on the authority of uniform experience, in the question of Anthropology and Ethnology. Man—save in colour and type, and perhaps a difference in facial peculiarities and cranial capacity—has been ever the same under every climate and in every part of the world, say the Naturalists; ay, even in stature—this, while maintaining that man descends from the same unknown ancestor as the ape; a claim that is logically impossible without an infinite variation of stature and form from his first evolution into a biped. The very logical persons who maintain both propositions are welcome to their paradoxical views. Once more we address only those who, doubting the general derivation of myths from “the contemplation of the visible workings of external nature,” think it Less hard to believe that these wonderful stories of gods and demi-gods, of giants and dwarfs, of dragons and monsters of all descriptions, are transformations, than to believe them to be inventions. It is only such “transformations” in physical nature, as much as in the memory and conceptions of our present mankind, that the Secret Doctrine teaches. It confronts the purely speculative hypotheses of Modern Science, based upon the experience and exact observations of [pg 463] barely a few centuries, with the unbroken tradition and records of its Sanctuaries; and brushing away that tissue of cobweb-like theories, spun in the darkness that covers a period of hardly a few millenniums, which Europeans call their
  • 42.
    “history,” the OldScience says to us: Listen, now, to my version of the memoirs of Humanity. The Human Races are born one from the other, grow, develop, become old, and die. Their sub-races and nations follow the same rule. If your all-denying Modern Science and so-called Philosophy do not contest that the human family is composed of a variety of well- defined types and races, it is only because the fact is undeniable; no one would say that there was no external difference between an Englishman, an African negro, and a Japanese or Chinaman. On the other hand, it is formally denied by most Naturalists that mixed human races, i.e., the seeds for entirely new races, are any longer formed in our days, although indeed the latter is maintained on good grounds by De Quatrefages and some others. Nevertheless our general proposition will not be accepted. It will be said that whatever forms man has passed through in the long pre- historic past there are no more changes for him—save certain variations, as at present—in the future. Hence that our Sixth and Seventh Root-Races are fictions. To this it is again answered: How do you know? Your experience is limited to a few thousand years, to less than a day in the whole age of Humanity and to the present types of the actual continents and isles of our Fifth Race. How can you tell what will or will not be? Meanwhile, such is the prophecy of the Secret Books and their not uncertain statements. Since the beginning of the Atlantean Race many million years have passed, yet we find the last of the Atlanteans still mixed up with the Âryan element, 11,000 years ago. This shows the enormous overlapping of one Race over the Race which succeeds it, though in characters and external type the elder loses its characteristics, and assumes the new features of the younger Race. This is proved in all the formations of mixed human races. Now, Occult Philosophy teaches that even now, under our very eyes, the new Race and
  • 43.
    races are preparingto be formed, and that it is in America that the transformation will take place, and has already silently commenced. Pure Anglo-Saxons hardly three hundred years ago, the Americans of the United States have already become a nation apart, and, owing [pg 464] to a strong admixture of various nationalities and inter- marriage, almost a race sui generis, not only mentally, but also physically. To quote from De Quatrefages: Every mixed race, when uniform and settled, has been able to play the part of a primary race in fresh crossings. Mankind, in its present state, has thus been formed, certainly for the greatest part, by the successive crossing of a number of races at present undetermined.1027 Thus the Americans have become in only three centuries a “primary race,” temporarily, before becoming a race apart, and strongly separated from all other now existing races. They are, in short, the germs of the sixth sub-race, and in some few hundred years more, will become most decidedly the pioneers of that race which must succeed to the present European or fifth sub-race, in all its new characteristics. After this, in about 25,000 years, they will launch into preparations for the seventh sub-race; until, in consequence of cataclysms—the first series of those which must one day destroy Europe, and still later the whole Âryan Race (and thus affect both Americas), as also most of the lands directly connected with the confines of our continent and isles—the Sixth Root-Race will have appeared on the stage of our Round. When shall this be? Who knows save the great Masters of Wisdom, perchance, and they are as silent upon the subject as the snow-capped peaks that tower above them. All we know is, that it will silently come into existence; so silently, indeed, that for long millenniums will its pioneers—the peculiar children who will grow into peculiar men and women—be regarded as anomalous lusûs naturæ, abnormal oddities physically and mentally. Then, as they increase, and their numbers become
  • 44.
    with every agegreater, one day they will awake to find themselves in a majority. Then the present men will begin to be regarded as exceptional mongrels, until they die out in their turn in civilized lands, surviving only in small groups on islands—the mountain peaks of to-day—where they will vegetate, degenerate, and finally die out, perhaps millions of years hence, as the Aztecs have, as the Nyam- Nyam and the dwarfish Moola Koorumba of the Nilghiri Hills are dying. All these are the remnants of once mighty races, the recollection of whose existence has entirely died out of the remembrance of modern generations, just as we shall vanish from the memory of the Sixth Race Humanity. The Fifth will overlap the Sixth Race for many hundreds of millenniums, changing with it more slowly than its new successor, [pg 465] still changing in stature, general physique, and mentality, just as the Fourth overlapped our Âryan Race, and the Third had overlapped the Atlanteans. This process of preparation for the Sixth great Race must last throughout the whole sixth and seventh sub-races.1028 But the last remnants of the Fifth Continent will not disappear until some time after the birth of the new Race; when another and new dwelling, the Sixth Continent, will have appeared above the new waters on the face of the Globe, so as to receive the new stranger. To it also will emigrate and there will settle all those who will be fortunate enough to escape the general disaster. When this shall be—as just said—it is not for the writer to know. Only, as Nature no more proceeds by sudden jumps and starts, than man changes suddenly from a child into a mature man, the final cataclysm will be preceded by many smaller submersions and destructions both by wave and volcanic fires. The exultant pulse will beat high in the heart of the race now in the American zone, but there will be no more Americans when the Sixth Race commences; no more, in fact, than Europeans; for they will have now become a new Race, and many new nations. Yet the Fifth will not die, but will survive for a while; overlapping the new Race for many hundred thousands of years to come, it will, as we have just said, become transformed with it more slowly than its new successor—still getting entirely altered in mentality, general
  • 45.
    physique, and stature.Mankind will not grow again into giant bodies as in the case of the Lemurians and the Atlanteans; because while the evolution of the Fourth Race led the latter down to the very bottom of materiality in its physical development, the present Race is on its ascending arc; and the Sixth will be rapidly growing out of its bonds of matter, and even of flesh. Thus it is the mankind of the New World, the senior by far of our Old one—a fact men had also forgotten—of Pâtâla (the Antipodes, or the Nether World, as America is called in India), whose mission and Karma it is, to sow the seeds for a forthcoming, grander, and far more glorious Race than any of those we know of at present. The Cycles of Matter will be succeeded by Cycles of Spirituality and a fully developed mind. On the law of parallel history and races, the majority of the future mankind will be composed of glorious Adepts. Humanity is the child of Cyclic Destiny, and not one of its Units can escape its unconscious [pg 466] mission, or get rid of the burden of its coöperative work with Nature. Thus will Mankind, race after race, perform its appointed Cyclic Pilgrimage. Climates will, and have already begun to, change, each Tropical Year after the other dropping one sub-race, but only to beget another higher race on the ascending cycle; while a series of other less favoured groups—the failures of Nature—will, like some individual men, vanish from the human family without even leaving a trace behind. Such is the course of Nature under the sway of Karmic Law; of Ever- present and Ever-becoming Nature. For, in the words of a Sage, known only to a few Occultists: The Present is the child of the Past; the Future, the begotten of the Present. And yet, O present moment! knowest thou not that thou hast no parent, nor canst thou have a child; that thou art ever begetting but thyself? Before thou hast even begun to say “I am the progeny of the departed moment, the child of the past,” thou hast become that past itself. Before thou utterest the last syllable, behold! thou art no more the Present but verily that Future. Thus,
  • 46.
    are the Past,the Present, and the Future the Ever-living Trinity in One—the Mahámâyâ of the Absolute “IS.”
  • 47.
  • 48.
    Part II. TheArchaic Symbolism Of The World-Religions. [pg 468] The narratives of the Doctrine are its cloak. The simple look only at the garment—that is, upon the narrative of the Doctrine; more they know not. The instructed, however, see not merely the cloak, but what the cloak covers.—Zohar (iii. 152; Franck, 119). The Mysteries of the Faith (are) not to be divulged to all.... It is requisite to hide in a mystery the wisdom spoken.—Stromateis (12; Clemens Alexandrinus). [pg 469]
  • 49.
    Section I. EsotericTenets Corroborated in Every Scripture. In view of the strangeness of the teachings, and of many a doctrine which from the modern scientific standpoint must seem absurd, some necessary and additional explanations have to be made. The theories contained in the Stanzas of Volume II are even more difficult to assimilate than those which are embodied in Volume I, on Cosmogony. Theology, therefore, has to be questioned here, in Part II, as Science will be in Part III, for since our doctrines differ so widely from the current ideas of both Materialism and Theology, the Occultists must be ever prepared to repel the attacks of either or of both. The reader can never be too often reminded that, as the abundant quotations from various old Scriptures prove, these teachings are as old as the world; and that the present work is simply an attempt to render, in modern language and in a phraseology with which the scientific and educated student is familiar, archaic Genesis and History as taught in certain Asiatic centres of Esoteric Learning. These must be accepted or rejected on their own merits, fully or partially; but not before they have been carefully compared with the corresponding theological dogmas and the modern scientific theories and speculations. One feels serious doubt whether, with all its intellectual acuteness, our age is destined to discover in each Western nation even one solitary [pg 470] uninitiated Scholar or Philosopher capable of fully comprehending the spirit of Archaic Philosophy. Nor can either be expected to do so, before the real meaning of the Alpha and the Omega of Eastern Esotericism, the terms Sat and Asat—so freely
  • 50.
    used in theRig Veda and elsewhere—is thoroughly assimilated. Without this key to Âryan Wisdom, the Cosmogony of the Rishis and the Arhats is in danger of remaining a dead letter to the average Orientalist. Asat is not merely the negation of Sat, nor is it the “not yet existing”; for Sat is in itself neither the “existent,” nor “being.” Sat is the immutable, the ever-present, changeless, and eternal Root, from and through which all proceeds. But it is far more than the potential force in the seed, which propels onward the process of development, or what is now called evolution. It is the ever becoming, though the never manifesting.1029 Sat is born from Asat, and Asat is begotten by Sat—perpetual motion in a circle, truly; yet a circle that can be squared only at the Supreme Initiation, at the threshold of Parinirvâna. Barth started a reflection on the Rig Veda which was meant for a stern criticism, an unusual, therefore, as was thought, an original, view of this archaic volume. It so happened, however, that, in his criticism, this scholar revealed a truth, without being himself aware of its full importance. He premises by saying that “neither in the language nor in the thought of the Rig Veda” has he “been able to discover that quality of primitive natural simplicity, which so many are fain to see in it.” Barth had Max Müller in his mind's eye when writing this. For the famous Oxford professor has throughout characterized the hymns of the Rig Veda, as the unsophisticated expression of the religious feeling of a pastoral innocent people. “In the Vedic hymns the ideas and myths appear in their simplest and freshest form”—the Sanskrit scholar thinks. Barth is of a different opinion, however. So divided and personal are the opinions of Sanskritists as to the importance and intrinsic value of the Rig Veda, that these opinions become entirely biassed whichever way they incline. Thus Prof. Max Müller declares that:
  • 51.
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