Agile by Example '16 Wisdom of the crowds
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The document discusses the concept of the 'wisdom of the crowds,' illustrating how diverse groups can make more accurate predictions through independent decisions. It presents various statistics from voting exercises, comparing the real values to the mean and median estimates provided by different groups. The results emphasize the effectiveness of collective estimation, highlighting the role of diversity in improving decision-making accuracy.
Agile by Example '16 Wisdom of the crowds
- 2. (1) (2) (3)
- 6. DIVERSE GROUP ClibPDF - www.fastio.com Francis Galton (1907) INDEPENDENT DECISION (2004) (2004) (2011)
- 9. REAL: 112 MEAN: 116 MEDIAN: 115 120 votes 3,5% 90 107,5 125 142,5 160 guesses mean value real value
- 10. REAL: 112 MEAN: 111,2 MEDIAN: 112 15 students REAL: 112 MEAN: 112,8 MEDIAN: 111 6 agilers
- 11. REAL: 72 MEAN: 69,5 MEDIAN: 70 100 votes 2,7% 40 52,5 65 77,5 90 guesses mean value real value
- 12. MEAN: 74 MEDIAN: 72 26 mix MEAN: 69 MEDIAN: 71 8 Dev Team REAL: 72
- 13. 120 votes REAL: 828 MEAN: 903 MEDIAN: 760 9% 8% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 guesses mean value real value
- 14. REAL: 828 MEAN: 519 MEDIAN: 417 6 agilers
- 15. DIVERSE GROUP INDEPENDENT DECISION PROBE over DATA
- 16. BACKLOG REFINEMENT is a PROCESS DEVOPS way is to EXPERIMENT Assure QUALITY at the source
- 17. @RadekLont #abe16 Wisdom of AbE crowd?
- 18. REAL: 112y 828m 75kg MEAN: 115 700 78 MEDIAN: 115 765 77 139 votes #AbE16 2,5% 15% 7,5% 4% 2,5%