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An introduction to the climate change and implications for the shrimp culture sector in Thailand
The document discusses the impacts of climate change on the shrimp culture sector in Thailand, highlighting trends such as increased temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and rising sea levels. It outlines both direct and indirect consequences for shrimp aquaculture, including changes in water availability, increased disease incidence, and economic challenges. The document emphasizes the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to address vulnerabilities and improve resilience within the sector.
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An introduction to the climate change and implications for the shrimp culture sector in Thailand
- 1. An introduction tothe climate change and implications for the shrimp culture sector in Thailand Simon Funge-Smith Secretary, Asia-Pacific Fishery Commission FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Department of Fisheries Thailand, Shrimp Culture Seminar, Bangkok, 8th August 2011
- 2. Climate change Earth’s climatehas varied widely over the last few hundred million years there have been hot periods, and ice ages linked to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels. The climate is currently changing surface air and sea temperatures have increased rate of warming has accelerated in the last few decades. Human activity is contributing to this change mainly through increasing concentrations of “greenhouse” gases (e.g. methane, CO2, N2O) There is natural variability changes in energy from the sun, natural cycles such as El Niño (ENSO) Unexpected events e.g. volcanic eruptions
- 3. Climate change trends Warmingtrend over the last 50 years nearly twice the rate of warming for the last 100 years next 100 years temperature change could range from +0.3°C to as high as +6.4°C Global average sea level rise average rise of 1.8 mm per year (1961 to 2003) next 100 years - sea level could change from 0.18 m to as high as 0.59 m Intensity of rainfall events increases changes in average rainfall increase in rainfall is projected for the Asian monsoon increase in rainfall variability, less reliable seasonal rain? Sea level pressure is increase over the subtropics and mid-latitudes influences sea flooding There is a tendency for drying of the mid- continental areas during summer greater risk of droughts in those regions
- 4. Projecting the effectsof climate change Projecting these changes is challenging Very complex Numerous factors and variables Can only indicate scenarios Climate change will not have uniform impacts across the globe Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change due to the low capacity of countries in the region to respond and adapt Most projections look at a timeframe of 50- 100 years Gradual changes But short term unpredictable events occur © 2009 Google™
- 5. Projection More negative thanpositive effects Natural systems are vulnerable Certain trends and impacts may be more pronounced in Asia temperature increases are likely to be above the global norm in many parts of the region a number of important river basins in Asia are threatened by further water stress people in the region are likely to be disproportionately impacted by flooding biodiversity loss will be greater in the tropics
- 6. Direct consequences onshrimp culture Direct biophysical and ecological consequences of changes Direct impacts on aquaculture production Disease, damage, production viability, costs, efficiency Direct impact on species compositions and distribution broodstock, species ranges Indirect consequences on shrimp culture Interaction between other sectors water demand & food production Strong competition for resources land, freshwater Impacts of the mitigation actions of other sectors Most already present Climate change will make them worse
- 7. Warming in theAsian region Changes in coastal ecosystems are already taking place warming of surface air and water temperatures extending tropical range northwards migration of some species into previously cooler zones altered local ecosystems with changes in competitors, predators and invasive species increased incidence of disease and parasites Water quality changes more frequent harmful algal blooms changes in plankton composition less dissolved oxygen
- 8. Implication for shrimpaquaculture Raised metabolic rates increase feeding rates and growth benefits if water quality, dissolved oxygen levels, and food supply are adequate... ..otherwise possible reductions in feeding rates and growth potential for enhanced primary productivity perhaps offset by eutrophication risks possible benefits for aquaculture, especially intensive and semi-intensive pond systems Reduced water quality leads or stress/disease especially dissolved oxygen Aquaculture opportunities lost/gained by shift in the potential range for a given species. species can longer be grown in some areas new areas become (warmer) extending range of tropical species (more competition?)
- 9. Implications for shrimpaquaculture Changes in infrastructure and operating costs Profits reduced by increase in stress & disease changes in the range and abundance of pathogens higher operating costs invasive species, pests, nuisance species and/or predators Possibly higher capital costs for aeration equipment deeper ponds more water exchange worsened infestations of fouling organisms
- 10. Rainfall patterns inthe Asian region Decreasing mean annual rainfall Indonesia, Philippines Increasing mean annual rainfall South-Eastern coast of China, Bangladesh and along the western coasts of the Philippines There is a trend toward an increased intensity of rainfall increase in frequency of occurrence of more intense rainfall events in many parts of Asia Intense rainfall events (monsoon related) causing landslides and severe flooding Overall decrease in the total amount of rainfall fewer rainy days and reduced total annual amount of precipitation
- 11. Changing freshwater flows Demandfor freshwater is likely to grow Already intense demands for agriculture & cities More water shortages May increase saline intrusion in deltas Average river runoff increase in Thailand? increases of between 10-40% in the wet tropics flow will not be smooth, probably associated with flooding River basins may be subjected to earlier season peak flows © 2009 Google™
- 12. Implications for shrimpaquaculture Lower water availability for aquaculture increased competition with other water users changes in water quality salinity increases, temperature rises impacts water quality causing more disease increase stress, lower performance Aquaculture higher costs maintaining pond water levels increased stock loss reduced production capacity Change of culture species and culture systems some potential opportunities More recirculation / less water exchange © 2009 Google™
- 13. Increasing frequency andintensity of extreme events (ongoing) Changes in El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regular occurrence that already affects climate and ocean globally altered rainfall patterns (delayed monsoon onset) drought, water shortages flash flooding in rivers Increase in extreme rainfall and winds associated with tropical cyclones cyclones move to different areas East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia especially Bay of Bengal, Mekong Delta, Vietnam, Philippines Increase in storm surges and associated coastal flooding low-pressure weather/cyclones combine with high tides push sea water onshore shrimp aquaculture communities, their property, and infrastructure will be exposed
- 14. Implication for shrimpculture: Large waves and storm surges; Loss of aquaculture stock from flooding Damage to or loss of aquaculture facilities Insurance costs? Inland flooding from intense rainfall Introduction of disease or predators into aquaculture facilities Cold weather events Sudden temperature shocks can stress shrimp triggering disease outbreaks
- 15. Coastal zones andsea-level rise Coastlines & deltas will be subjected to: Increased erosion Inundation (increasing wetland/flooded area) Flooding Loss of coastal wetlands or expansion of mangroves into newly flooded coastal lands Saline intrusion into rivers, bays and aquifers
- 16. Implications for shrimpaquaculture Most immediate and significant effects in delta areas, estuaries and associated wetlands These are all key aquaculture environments Changing coastal ecosystems such as mudflats and mangrove forests. worsened exposure of ponds to waves and storm surges risks that coastal/inland aquaculture will become inundated Loss of land (increased flooding/inundation) reduced area available for aquaculture Saline intrusion. reduced freshwater availability for aquaculture opportunities to shift to brackish water species increased opportunities for mariculture
- 17. Does shrimp aquaculturecontribute to climate change? Need to look at energy “footprint” “lifecycle analysis” Indicates shrimp is worse than salmon..... Global total of CO2 from global aquaculture 385 million tonnes ~1% of global total ~6.3-7.5% of agriculture total Shrimp aquaculture production uses significant amounts of energy aeration, pumping, production intensive feeds Doesn’t include processing/transport Source: Hall, S.J., et al. 2011. Blue Frontiers: Managing the Environmental Costs of Aquaculture. The WorldFish Center, Penang, Malaysia.
- 18. Relative contribution ofdifferent countries Globally, average shrimp and prawn production contributes 17 tonnes CO2/tonne of shrimp Thailand ~10 tonnes CO2/tonne of shrimp Could be improved: More recirculation/less pumping More efficient aeration air lifts instead of paddle wheels Use of pond linings Source: Hall, S.J., et al. 2011. Blue Frontiers: Managing the Environmental Costs of Aquaculture. The WorldFish Center, Penang, Malaysia. Country tonnes CO2/tonne shrimp China ~ 30 Ecuador ~ 14 Indonesia ~ 9 Mexico ~ 8 Thailand ~ 10 VietNam ~ 5 Average ~ 17
- 19. Adaptation & mitigation Adaptationthrough reduction of vulnerability Look for ‘‘no-regret’’ strategies “win-win” changes in management that deliver benefits with or without climate change Reduce vulnerability to extreme events, unexpected changes cyclone and storm surge preparation resilience to flooding expect the worse case scenario
- 20. Technical approaches foradaptation in the aquaculture sector Make system more resilient to extreme weather develop buffer areas to reduce impact of coastal flooding/storm surges raise bunds Warming deepen ponds more efficient aeration systems to cope with low dissolved oxygen Recirculation to reduce water demand Already being used May increase energy efficiency (reduced pumping/water-lifting costs Potential reduction in GHG on unit production
- 21. How to meetchallenge of climate change adaptation Economic and market diversification New species to markets Modify operations to adapt to operational cost changes Branding of low carbon footprint products Insurance for the fisheries and aquaculture sector Cope with unexpected weather events
- 22. Supportive Government policycan assist adaptation Government level clearly incorporate aquaculture production sector into Government climate change strategies Develop/promote adaptation/mitigation actions Promote/research appropriate technologies that will support emission reduction Important to understand vulnerability systems, places, people different effects in different places where to prioritize effort & money Difficult for small farmers to recover from extreme events Low incomes and limited savings Cannot access credit, loans and insurance & national reserves and assistance limited Lack of effective public services to address extreme events
- 23. Opportunities for mitigationof aquaculture contributions to CO2 production Direct reduction of greenhouse gas emissions Note that GHG emission may be lower than for other forms of food production (e.g. intensive pork/chicken) Increase energy efficiency in aquaculture production aeration pumping use of liners better feed conversion Innovations in shrimp processing/transport improvements related to the transportation of fish to markets improved building design and handling practices to reduce energy requirements increase energy efficiency through better insulation in ice plants, freezing plants, cold stores and chill stores. Opportunity to brand shrimp branding and certification initiatives to promote energy efficient products
- 24. Look for positiveopportunities in climate adaptation activities of other sectors Look for positive opportunities in extra-sectoral responses. mitigation actions may provide opportunities for the sector may be win-win Protection of ecosystems for coastal protection or emissions reductions may reduce risk of storm surges/flooding Initiatives on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) mangrove restoration (good for protection of coast, also enhances fisheries so win-win) revenues from eco-tourism
- 25. Mitigation and adaptationin other sectors may impact shrimp aquaculture Adaptive strategies developed for other sectors may have implications on the fisheries and aquaculture sectors. e.g. flood water diversion to save cities/agricultural land coastal management, storm protection structures – may increase erosion interaction between other sectors and the capture fisheries and aquaculture sectors need to be considered in policy planning Competition for (fresh)water between the aquaculture and agriculture sectors already lead to conflicts between user groups. Less of a problem for coastal aquaculture diversion of fresh water for water-thirsty industries May affect water quality/salinity in estuaries May increase saline intrusion – opportunity?
- 26. Key messages Climate stressalready exists Cyclone patterns, warming, cold weather, rainfall patterns, flooding, freshwater flow, species changes Climate variability has always been here El nino, unpredictable storms/weather Climate change will cause disruptions to aquatic and coastal systems limited ability to make specific predictions on shrimp aquaculture remains limited Must identify the most likely risks identify most vulnerable systems/areas develop specific (local) adaptive strategies
- 27. Key messages Positive opportunities Extendedrange of species (but possibly more competition from neighbouring producers?) Increased saline/brackishwater culture areas Faster growth rates Improved marketing of products that have made a positive impact to reduce GHG emission (energy use) Negative impacts expected on: Production costs Productivity and viability of aquaculture operations Extreme weather Flooding & storm surges Temperature rise Related sectors: agriculture, land and water management, coastal development
- 28. Key messages In theshort term, non-climate-related drivers have larger impacts Don’t blame losses from bad management on climate change! Climate change makes human driven problems worse Biggest threat is current poor practices in shrimp culture management and ecosystem management Inefficient culture systems Spread of disease through movements of unscreened stocks Poor zonation Poor control over effluents and coastal development Coastal habitat destruction Poor management reduces resilience to climate change related impacts Good management will deliver benefits with or without climate change
- 29. Key messages Action atsector level could be promoted by supportive government policies More local level action by farmers Assess most likely threats and possible adaptive changes Look for cost effective win-win changes in the farming systems technological adaption/innovation A sustainable shrimp sector recognizes vulnerabilities and adapts A responsible shrimp sector takes steps to mitigate its impacts opportunity for shrimp aquaculture to improve its image as a low GHG emitting food production sector
- 30. Footnotes: Some of theclimate change terminology Vulnerability ‘the degree to which a system is susceptible to climate change, and is unable to cope with the negative effects of climate change’ (IPCC,2007) Resilience “the ability to recover from, or adjust easily to change” Adaptation “a response to climate change that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change effects Adaptive capacity “Abilities and resources to cope with climate-related changes” Mitigation “Actions taken to reduce effect of climate change drivers (typically greenhouse gas reduction) “ “No-regrets” strategy “Actions contributing to CC adaptation or mitigation that make sense, without even taking account of CC” “steps to reduce GHGs that would pay for themselves even without a climate change” ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) “a climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean on average every five years, but over a period which varies from three to seven years. This affects rainfall, currents, temperatures, fisheries” REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation & Forest Degradation) “uses market/financial incentives to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases from deforestation and forest degradation. Also supposed to deliver "co- benefits" such as biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation”