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![LONG-TERM IMPACT
> Advancing Cultures of Innovation
> Rethinking How Institutions Work
[KEYTRENDS]
MID-TERM IMPACT
> Growing Focus On Measuring Learning
> Increasing Use of Blended Learning Designs
SHORT-TERM IMPACT
> Redesigning Learning Spaces
> Shift to Deeper Learning Approaches](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/bryanalexanderctppt-160801162153/75/Assessing-Emerging-Technology-and-Futures-Capacity-for-Your-Organization-14-2048.jpg)
![[SIGNIFICANTCHALLENGES] SOLVABLE
> Blending Formal + Informal Learning
> Improving Digital Literacy
DIFFICULT
> Competing Models of Education
> Personalizing Learning
WICKED
> Balancing Our Connected +
Unconnected Lives
> Keeping Education Relevant](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/bryanalexanderctppt-160801162153/75/Assessing-Emerging-Technology-and-Futures-Capacity-for-Your-Organization-16-2048.jpg)
![[DEVELOPMENTSINTECH]
NEAR-TERM: 1 YR OR LESS
> Bring Your Own Device (BYOD)
> Learning Analytics + Adaptive Learning
> Augmented + Virtual Reality
> Makerspaces
MID-TERM: 2-3 YRS
FAR-TERM: 4-5 YRS
> Affective Computing
> Robotics](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/bryanalexanderctppt-160801162153/75/Assessing-Emerging-Technology-and-Futures-Capacity-for-Your-Organization-17-2048.jpg)
Uploaded byBryan Alexander
"Assessing Emerging Technology and Futures Capacity for Your Organization
The document discusses methods for assessing emerging technologies and trends within organizations, highlighting strategies such as the Delphi method, environmental scanning, and trend analysis. It covers the impact of various technologies on education, significant challenges faced, and potential scenarios for the future of higher education and other sectors. The content aims to foster innovation and adaptability in educational practices and institutional planning.
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"Assessing Emerging Technology and Futures Capacity for Your Organization
- 1. Assessing Emerging Technologyand FuturesAssessing Emerging Technology and Futures Capacity for Your OrganizationCapacity for Your Organization Presented by: Bryan Alexander
- 2. 1. Introductions 2. Delphimethod 3. Environmental scanning 4. Trend analysis 5. Scenarios 6. Implementation in your organization Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop
- 4. 1. Cold War:RAND and Shell 2. Growth of futures/futurology 3. Business, government Historical sketchHistorical sketch
- 5. • Assemble experts •Structured queries • Reiterated assessments 2. Delphi method
- 7. 1. Introductions 2. Delphimethod 3. Environmental scanning 4. Trend analysis 5. Scenarios 6. Implementation in your organization Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop Horizon ReportsHorizon Reports Higher EducationHigher Education K-12 EducationK-12 Education MuseumsMuseums LibrariesLibraries European Union (K-12)European Union (K-12) Latin America (Higher Ed)Latin America (Higher Ed) Regional/Sector TechnologyRegional/Sector Technology OutlooksOutlooks Australia / New Zealand / BrazilAustralia / New Zealand / Brazil Ireland / UK / Norway / Singapore / AsiaIreland / UK / Norway / Singapore / Asia China / Scandinavia / Int’l SchoolsChina / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools Training / eLearning / STEM / Community CollegesTraining / eLearning / STEM / Community Colleges
- 8. The NMC Horizon Project 55Editions55 Editions 75+75+ TranslationsTranslations 14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake
- 11.
- 13.
- 14. LONG-TERM IMPACT > AdvancingCultures of Innovation > Rethinking How Institutions Work [KEYTRENDS] MID-TERM IMPACT > Growing Focus On Measuring Learning > Increasing Use of Blended Learning Designs SHORT-TERM IMPACT > Redesigning Learning Spaces > Shift to Deeper Learning Approaches
- 16. [SIGNIFICANTCHALLENGES] SOLVABLE > BlendingFormal + Informal Learning > Improving Digital Literacy DIFFICULT > Competing Models of Education > Personalizing Learning WICKED > Balancing Our Connected + Unconnected Lives > Keeping Education Relevant
- 17. [DEVELOPMENTSINTECH] NEAR-TERM: 1 YROR LESS > Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) > Learning Analytics + Adaptive Learning > Augmented + Virtual Reality > Makerspaces MID-TERM: 2-3 YRS FAR-TERM: 4-5 YRS > Affective Computing > Robotics
- 18. 1. Which developmentsin technology are most likely to have the largest impact on education over the next five years? 2. What are the most significant challenges facing education and technology? 3. Which significant trends will have the greatest influence on how education and technology work in the near future? Horizon prompts exercise
- 19. • Can youuse Horizon and others? • Can you build your own? On campus
- 20. • Present-oriented, seekingseeds of future • Multiple, diverse sources • “So what?” Analysis 3. Environmental scanning
- 21.
- 22.
- 23. • What areyour sources? • How do you share what you discover? • How does reflection shape your planning? Key questions to start on
- 24. 1. Identify 2stories from past 3 months 2. 1 personal, 1 professional 3. Note source EXERCISE
- 25. Once you havediscerned possible future-suggestive stories, what do you do with them? 4. Trend analysis
- 26. •What do theysignal about a possible future? •What trends do they indicate? •How do they connect with your thinking? •How do they intersect? 4. Trend analysis
- 27. Back to environmentalscan. Break out trends. EXERCISE
- 28.
- 29. 1.Narratives compel 2.Creativity foreveryone 3.Role playing 4.Can be very low cost AdvantagesAdvantages
- 30. 1.Time consuming 2.Can becostly 3.May seem too touchy-feely, too speculative CostsCosts
- 31. 1.Role playing 2.Simpler: howdoes your life change? 3.Group or individual/small group creation How to use?How to use?
- 32. 1.Peak Higher Education 2.HealthCare Nation 3.Tutor me, Siri 4.Renaissance Sample scenariosSample scenarios
- 33. Academia experiences a serious correction Peakhigher educationPeak higher education
- 34. The bubble burstThebubble burst ://research.studentclearinghouse.org/
- 35. Grad programs checkedGradprograms checked
- 36. •Demographic decline •Accelerated prices+ sunk costs •Low public funding •Alternatives rising Perfect stormPerfect storm
- 37. •Fewer, less crowdedcampuses •Very international student body •Low-cost programs ($10K BA) How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
- 38. •Increased remedial programs •Collegegenerally seen as job training How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
- 39. More alternatives: Makermovement expands More DIY learning, unschooling How does this impact learning?How does this impact learning?
- 40. •Vocational tech classesare widespread in K-12 •Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths •Colleges have always been transnational
- 41. Medical sector grows intoleading US industry 45% of GDP II:II: Health care nationHealth care nation
- 42. Aging population A new economyAnew economy
- 43. • Byzantine finances •Treatment improvements • Greater presence in society • Baumol’s disease A new economyA new economy
- 44. • More programs,more people, more tech • Increased feminization of student body • Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
- 45. • Some tookpremed-themed classes in high school • Medical heroes loom as large as sports figures • Many already familiar with eldercare practices
- 46. • Tutoring software •Commodity and enterprise versions III. Tutor me, SiriIII. Tutor me, Siri
- 47. • Continuous developmentsin AI, HCI, learning science • Commercial, governmental, academic projects • Open education to draw upon How it happenedHow it happened
- 48. • Two Culturesimplementation divide • Boom in CS, robotics departments • Scholarship battles Higher education landscape
- 49. • Further adjunctification •F2f undergrad, grad enrollments drop • Math Emporium model Higher education landscape
- 50. • Expanded studyhalls in high school • Beloved tutors carried to college, life • Value humans for eccentricity, style
- 51.
- 57.
- 58. • Median ageof gamers shoots past 30 • Industry size comparable to music • Impacts on hardware, software, interfaces, other industries • Large and growing diversity of platforms, topics, genres, niches, players Gaming as part of mainstream cultureGaming as part of mainstream culture
- 59. Games serious, public, and political • Oiligarchy,Molle Industries • Jetset, Persuasive Games • The Great Shakeout, California • DimensionM, Tabula Digita
- 60. Classroom and courses Curriculum content Delivery mechanism Creating games Peacemaker, Impact Games Revolution (via Jason Mittell)
- 61. Classroom and courses Curriculum content Delivery mechanism Creating games Peacemaker, Impact Games Revolution (via Jason Mittell)
- 62. Game studies asacademic fieldGame studies as academic field •Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005) •Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage, 2008) •Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT, 2009)
- 64. Use games toimpact society
- 65. •Changes in hardware,software •Part of undergraduate life •Learning content, both informal and formal •Career paths Some impacts on campusesSome impacts on campuses
- 66. • Accreditation: drivesproject-based, studio-style pedagogy • Libraries: rare and/or smaller • Professional development: distance, DiY • Faculty multimedia production is the norm • Both sides of the API Higher education landscape:
- 67. •War on IPrages •Nostalgia waves for old media •Competing storytelling schools
- 68. • Most studentsidentified with one+ game characters in K-12 • Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors • Most of their work and school is gamified
- 69. 1.Peak Higher Education 2.HealthCare Nation 3.Tutor me, Siri 4.Renaissance How does your life change?How does your life change?
- 70. 1.Select one trend 2.Builda world around it A.Think STEEP B. Think campuses C. Imagine your students EXERCISE 1EXERCISE 1
- 71. 1.Pick the mostunstable, hard to predict trend. 2.Describe its polar extreme possibilities. 3.Pick another trend. 4.Do #2 on it. EXERCISEEXERCISE
- 72.
- 73. What is yourcurrent futuring capacity? •Individuals •Practices •Local resources 6. Back to campus
- 74. What are yourexternal resources? •Collaborations •Online •Professional organizations 6. Back to campus
- 75. •Support futures-oriented people •Tryout one of these methods •Hold planning/vision sessions •Share news, fiction How to develop
- 76. •Ad hoc orformal group? •“ “ “ “ process? •Partner locally •“ externally How to develop
- 77. 1. Introductions 2. Delphimethod 3. Environmental scanning 4. Trend analysis 5. Scenarios 6. Implementation in your organization Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop
- 78.