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Bad science - 10 insights for advocates
1. Science and evidence is often overrated, and intuitions come before strategic reasoning. 2. Arguments should be proportional to the issue; don't bring a knife to a gun fight. 3. Authority from experts can be leveraged; a quote from the Royal College of Physicians said e-cigarette risks are unlikely to exceed 5% of smoking risks, and may be lower.
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Bad science - 10 insights for advocates
- 1. Counterfactual Bad science –10 insights for advocates Global Forum on Nicotine 2020 Virtual Scholars’ Day Clive Bates www.clivebates.com @clive_bates
- 2.
- 3. 1. Science andevidence is over-rated Intuitions come first… …strategic reasoning second Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous Mind
- 4. 2. Don’t takea knife to a gun fight
- 6. 3. Argument fromauthority
- 7. Gather quotes andcapture the authority of others
- 8. Royal College ofPhysicians – on relative risk "Although it is not possible to precisely quantify the long- term health risks associated with e-cigarettes, the available data suggest that they are unlikely to exceed 5% of those associated with smoked tobacco products, and may well be substantially lower than this figure".
- 9. 4. The dosemakes the poison
- 10. 4. The dosemakes the poison Contains NNAL. But much lower level. Similar to NRT. Contains CYMA. But much lower level. Similar to NRT.
- 11. 4. The dosemakes the poison “The researchers found cadmium, chromium, lead, manganese, and nickel — which can be toxic or carcinogenic when inhaled – in all five brands, though levels varied by brand.” • How much? And is that a little or a lot? • How much compared to cigarettes? • How much compared to established standards – e.g. for occupational health? • Um… “can be”…
- 12. 5. The gatewayeffect
- 13. 5. Correlation isnot (necessarily) causation I think they've really shown that sex and drugs go with rock and roll,’ said Dr. Sharon Levy But, Levy said, it's far too early to warn parents that listening to loud music could lead to drug or alcohol use. The study couldn't show that one type of risky behavior led to the other, she pointed out.
- 14. 5. Causation, reversecausation and confounding BAA B C A B
- 15. 5. Causation, reversecausation and confounding Loud music Drugs Sex Alcohol Loud music DrugsSex Alcohol
- 16. 6. Cell studies– “in vitro”
- 17. 6. Animal studies– “in vivo”
- 18. 6. Reasons tobe cautious about cell and animal studies “One team of researchers found that out of about 500 treatments reported to improve stroke outcomes in animals, only two treatments worked in humans.” • Concern about: – Unrealistic environment – Different disease model – Dosing may not reflect human use • Useful for: – Experiments that can’t be done on humans – Comparisons and exploration – Warning signals and pointers
- 19. 7. E-cigarette, orvaping, product use-associated lung injury (EVALI) By 18 February 2020 2,807 hospitalised 68 deaths
- 20. 7. E-cigarette, orvaping, product use-associated lung injury (EVALI) • THC vape pens • Oils cut with Vitamin E Acetate • Prohibition and illicit supply • No nicotine • Users had incentives to conceal THC use • Cause was clear in August 2019
- 21. 8. “Youth vapingepidemic” – US high school students 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 US Adolescent E-cigarette use (past 30 days) 27.5%
- 22. 8. “Youth vapingepidemic” – US high schools
- 23. 8. “Youth vapingepidemic” – US high schools Percentage of all students 27.5% HEADLINE!
- 24. 8. Youth vapingepidemic – US high schools Percentage of all students Frequent 20-30 days per month 9.4% Infrequent ≤ 19 days per month 18.1% about two-thirds were infrequent users
- 25. 8. Youth vapingepidemic – US high schools Percentage of all students No tobacco use Any tobacco use 8.8% 18.7% about two-thirds were also tobacco users
- 26. 8. Youth vapingepidemic – US high schools Percentage of all students No tobacco use Any tobacco use Frequent 20-30 days per month 1.4% 8.0% Infrequent ≤ 19 days per month 7.4% 10.7% Only about one in twenty were tobacco naïve and frequent vapers
- 27. 8. Never lookat vaping without considering smoking
- 28. 8. Never lookat vaping without considering smoking 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Percent 30 day and daily cigarette smoking prevalence (percent) 1975-2019 United States 12th grade students - Monitoring the Future 2016 and 2019 Smoked in last 30 days (pre-2010) Smoked daily (pre-2010) Smoked in last 30 days (post-2010) Smoked daily (post-2010) Daily smoking Any smoking in past 30 days Rate of decline post-2010 is more than 4 times greater than 1975-2010 3 times greater
- 29. 9. Nicotine isbrain poison
- 30. Nicotine is abrain poison
- 31. 10. Risk tobystanders
- 32.