Barry Rawn - Green Growth Diagnostics for Africa

Barry Rawn - Green Growth Diagnostics for Africa

• 1.
  Unlocking investment inAfrica’s renewables: what are the binding constraints? First Panel: Planning On-Grid Perspective: Observations from Nigeria Presented by Dr Barry Rawn Thursday 19th January 2017
• 2.
  ~180 million people: • 50%no access; • 30% DG • 20% on-grid ~1GW per million people in industrialised country, but.. 2
• 3.
  Peak load about 4.8GW: • Banks, hotels, small industry left grid due to intermittency, power quality ~180 million people: • 50% no access; • 30% DG • 20% on-grid ~1GW per million people in industrialised country, but.. 12 % Hydro, rest is gas power plants in South 1.2 GW of Northern solar?3
• 4.
  Lack of experiencein the integration of large shares of intermittent renewables: how is it a binding constraint? Invited to comment : On-Grid Perspective: Observations from Nigeria Also corroborate: • human resources, institutional capacity • project pipeline issues (unsolicited proposals) • partial power sector reform Current capacity could allow 1.2 GW, dozens of 100 MW plants: 25%-40% of demand Source: Moeller&Poeller 4
• 5.
  Investment in trainingand skills development is a least regret investment that improves planning (A Tale of Two Doctors) Additional Offering: On-Grid Perspective: Observations from Nigeria Investor confidence in utility commercial transactions, operations increases when 3rd party ensures data transparency and auditability. (EPSRC GCRF Proposal) (1) (2) A working power system is much more about people and processes than equipment and calculation. Key observation: 5
• 6.
  Large scale solar:Nigeria not accustomed to utility-scale PV? • PRO: Helps reduce congestion from South to North • PRO: Stabilises line energisation, even at night • CON: Makes frequency control more difficult. Acceptance from transmission company staff (in operations, planning)? Capacity of transmission company staff to integrate? • Grid interconnection studies: no access to standard software, no training • Transmission studies: data are questionable, no access to standard software Particular conditions of Nigeria need particular grid code, internal learning process. Worst case for developers, sector: • Overly stringent requirements set based on other jurisdictions • Potential technical problems completely missed • Unhealthy reliance on consultants and academics 6
• 7.
  Large scale solar:PV not accustomed to Nigeria? NIGERIA SOUTH AFRICA EUROPE NIGERIA SOUTH AFRICA EUROPE Mutual disruption and revenue loss: • If not at high voltage, grid availability is low • Accidental self discussion, unless settings correct Equipment : • Some design considerations to avoid damage; some unknowns Half day measurements of voltage and frequency: nominally constant within a few percent of specification. Voltage Frequency 7
• 8.
  Nigerian Context Status: • Distributioncompanies are under-invested, struggle with payment collection; receive most of their revenue from a few customers. • Equipment problems, government interferes with transmission company • Maintenance problems with generators Power sector in privatisation process since 2005; energy sold to and from a bulk energy trader, and transmission company splitting into service provider and system operator. Continual load shedding occurs; blackouts frequent: 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Partial Total Many industry standard expectations are not met 8
• 9.
  Transmission Planning Normal setting: •Data flawed, analysis capacity limited and experience limited; struggle with pipeline of projects • Budget moved within government as corruption safeguard, constrained • Significant Forex risk • Land Use Act leads to right of way problems • privatisation layers short term pain on potential transformation Nigerian context: • System assets well characterised • Cost recovery over decades, from balance sheet • Assume predictable and stable regulated revenue • Assume stable currency • Transmission projects experience delay, failure to obtain permits • Unbundling and privatisation increases uncertainty, requires stronger regulation, long term energy policy. Criteria: invest to increase reliability, decrease cost of energy, minimise regret: Criteria: can be political, donor driven; increase load allocated, reliability Planning task is relatively crucial: large changes in reliability and viability of sector at stake. 9
• 10.
  RIP 1985-1995: DefunctSolar Well: Sagbo Kogi Island, Lagos, Nigeria10
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  • Limited consultationwith community on location, business model, demand for electricity • Revolving fund concept • Payback period would have been met this year after 6 years.. But projection from records was 1%, not 100% RIP 2011-2021: Battery Charging Station: Mfaminyen, Akampka LGA, Nigeria 11
• 12.
  2011- future: ArnergySolar Home System: Sagbo Kogi Island, Lagos, Nigeria • The new utility?No subsidy. • Scratch card payment • Started with solar home systems (1KW) • Now commercial systems (100kW) 12
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  • Solar paritywith diesel means 30% of electrified customers never coming back, and rural electrification will happen with solar • Changing role for the grid: serving more resilient regions; temporary service for flexible tariff. • Commercial installations are in a valley that needs support and attention.. but not too much. Grid serves industrial customers and provides reliability, trade. 13
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  70 year oldDr Abraham Olatoke 35 year old Dr Tochi Nwachukwu Grid infrastructure is run by people: talent discovery and training.14
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  Need engineers buildingskills more than PhDs and consultants • Summer school with project-driven learning • Meritocratic selection of participants • Embedded observers and trainers to enhance NAPTIN courses • Well.. maybe a just a few PhDs 15
• 16.
  Harnessing Energy, Information andCommunications Technology for Affordable Electrification of Africa June 26-30, 2017 Accra, Ghana 16