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Being Wrong
The document discusses the importance of accepting uncertainty and the value of doubt in decision-making processes. It emphasizes the need for probabilistic thinking and encourages asking humble, curious questions to challenge one's own beliefs and biases. Key themes include the notion that acknowledging what we do not know can lead to better outcomes and that collective input can enhance decision-making.
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More from Sue Johnston, MBA + a bunch of other stuff
Being Wrong
- 1. Scotia Data Office AgileConference June 24, 2021 Sue Johnston BEING WRONG What if . . . the smartest thing you can do is give up the need to look smart?
- 2. “My idea is thebest!”
- 3. My driving is. . . WORSE THAN AVERAGE AVERAGE BETTER THAN AVERAGE “illusory superiority”
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- 5. Everyday routine Start car Scan the scene Stopwhen necessary Arrive Montreal summer Start car Encounter detour Decipher road sign Feel lost Deal with stress Get lost Replan
- 6. How can youtell a dog’s age? How do you know? Everybody knows!
- 7. Hear Evaluate Believe Hear Believe Evaluate How we think wethink How we think
- 10. We need to beright
- 11. They tell me I’msmart I’m disappointing
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- 14. Are you reasoning tobe accurate?
- 15. Things go poorly, it’sluck, conditions, beyond our control Things go well, it’s our skill, good decision making “self-serving bias”
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- 17. “Agile approaches are universally applicable.” Wantto bet? CAD 50.00?
- 18. Chosen Option Outcome A Outcome B Outcome C Outcome C What are the options? Whatdo we know about each? What are the chances of each outcome?
- 19. What was the worstdecision you made in the past year? What was the best decision you made in the past year?
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- 22. Needed: “positive” and “negative”capabilities •Knowledge •Skills •Competencies •Silence •Patience •Doubt •Humility
- 23. “We need toteach how doubt is not to be feared but welcomed. It's OK to say, "I don't know." Richard P Feynman Physicist and Nobel Laureate
- 24. Challenge your beliefs •How do you react at the edge of your knowledge? • What if you were not afraid to look incompetent? • When was the last time you said, “I don’t know?” • What’s a safe context to express “decent doubt?” • How could you test your assumptions? • How might you show yourself and others compassion when facing the unknown?
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- 26. Probabilistic questions Probabilistic questions •What matters here? • What else might influence this? • What are the chances of this happening? • What makes us think that? • What’s our confidence level that this will happen? Courage and tact in equal measure
- 27. •Ask humble, genuinelycurious questions •Challenge your own ideas – train yourself to test alternate hypotheses • Focus on accuracy • You might be wrong • Be open to diverse viewpoints •Work in groups – easier to see others’ biases than our own
- 28. “I have nospecial talent. I am only passionately curious.” Albert Einstein
- 29. “It doesn't matterhow beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong” Richard P. Feynman
- 30. • What’s likelyto happen if you do X? • What’s your level of confidence? • How do you know? • What would need to be in place for that to work? • What else might be true? • How can you find out? • What are you not seeing? • Am I examining for discovery or for confirmation? • What biases might lead you astray? Curious questions
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- 32. This helps us builda better foundation for our bets
- 33. “You have neverbeen in this exact moment before . . . so you don’t have to pretend that you know exactly what to do.”
- 34. Learn more Thinking InBets - Annie Duke Thinking Fast And Slow - Daniel Kahneman Better By Mistake - Alina Tugend Being Wrong - Kathryn Shulz Not Knowing - Steven D’Souza/Diana Renner Humble Inquiry - Edgar Schein/Peter Schein The Advice Trap - Michael Bungay Stanier Leading Geeks - Paul Glen
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