BRACED PRESENCES Final Evaluation

Projet de Résilience face aux Chocs Environnementaux
et Sociaux au Niger (PRESENCES-BRACED)
FINAL EVALUATION

02 | www.actionagainsthunger.org.uk FINAL EVALUATION | 03
Cover: © Ollivier Girard/CARE
This report was produced BY MEL Services
in Action Against Hunger UK
February 2018
Authors: Nicola Giordano, Mariagni Ellina
ACRONYMS
AGRHYMET Centre Régional d’Agrométéorologie, Hydrologie et Météorologie
(Regional Centre for Agrometeorology, hydrology and meteorology)
AREN Association pour la Redynamisation de l‘Elevage au Niger
(Association for the revitalization of livestock in Niger)
BRACED Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters Programme
CAAP/PACA Community Adaptation Action Plan/ Plan d’Action Communautaire d’Adaptation
CVCA Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis
CSI Coping Strategy Index
DFID Department for International Development – UK Aid
IDEES DUBARA Initiative pour le Développement dans l’Equité et la Solidarité
(Initiative for Development based on Equity and Solidarity)
IGA Income Generating Activity
INRAN Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique du Niger
(National Agricultural Research Institute of Niger)
KIIs Key Informant Interviews
KM Knowledge Manager
(FUGPN) MOORIBEN Fédération des Unions des Groupements Paysans du Niger
NTFP/ PFNL Non-Timber Forest Products / Produits Forestiers Non Ligneux
OSV Observatoire de Suivi de la Vulnérabilité
PMU Programme Management Unit
PRESENCES Projet de Résilience face aux Chocs Environnementaux et Sociaux au Niger
PRESAO PREvisions Saisonnières en Afrique de l’Ouest
PRESASS Forum annuel des Prévisions Saisonnières des caractéristiques
Agrohydroclimatiques pour la zone Soudano-Sahélienne
PSP Participatory Scenario Planning
SCAP/RU Systèmes Communautaires d’Alerte Précoce et de Réponses en situation d’Urgence
VSLA /AVEC Village Savings and Loan Association / Association Villageoise d’Epargne et de Crédit
WFP World Food Programme
This material has been funded by UK aid from the UK government; however the
views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.
disclaimer

CONTENTS
ACRONYMS 03
Executive Summary 06
1 introduction 10
1.1. Overview of BRACED-PRESENCES project 10
1.2. Definition of resilience in BRACED and CARE 11
1.3. PRESENCES Theory of Change 11
2 objectives of the final evaluation 13
2.1. Key objectives 13
2.1.1. Learning areas 13
2.2. Process-related objectives 14
3 FINAL EVALUATION METHODOLOGY 15
3.1. Methodology 15
3.2. Sources and use of information 15
3.3. Data visualisation approach 16
3.4. Outcome monitoring through KPI4 17
3.5. Evaluation through CSI data 18
3.6. Limitations 19
4 CONTEXT analysis 20
4.1. Contextual forces identified at baseline and their trends 20
4.2. Climate information systems: SCAP/RU 22
4.3. Financial inclusion and resilience in PRESENCES 23
5 FINAL EVALUATION RESULTS 24
5.1. Outline of PRESENCES outreach per location 24
5.2. Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 26
5.3. Outcome indicator KPI4 for Resilience 29
5.4. Learning package 1: Climate information 31
6 Learning package: Credit System for resilience 39
6.1.1 Types of credit systems supported by PRESENCES 40
6.1.2 PHASE cash-for-work intervention as credit system 42
6.1.3 Credit system functioning & its support to the most marginalised 43
6.1.4 User investment decisions considering market trends & climate shocks 49
6.1.5 Relationship between access to credit, livelihood diversification and food security 50
6.1.6 Risks encountered in the credit system that could reduce resiliencebuilding 51
7 Cross-cutting themes 52
7.1. Gender 52
7.2. Institutional engagement 54
7.3. Value for Money 55
7.3.1. Economy 55
7.3.2. Efficiency 57
7.3.3. Effectiveness 59
7.3.4. Equity 59
8 CONCLUSIONS AND MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS 60
8.1. Outcome and impact level changes 60
8.2. Synthesis of evidence each learning question 62
9 PROJECT-CYCLE Recommendations 67
9.1. Design 67
9.2. Implementation 67
9.3. MEAL 68
annexES
annex 1: Additional tables 70
Annex 2: Key Informant Interviews guide 71
Annex 3: Focus Group Discussions tool (CSI adapted) 73
Annex 4: List of Key Informants 74
Annex 5: List of reviewed documents 75
Annex 6: Monitoring tools used during PRESENCES 76

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Projet de Résilience face aux Chocs Environnementaux et
Sociaux au Niger (PRESENCES) is a DFID funded project in Niger
managed by CARE International UK and implemented by CARE Niger,
TREE AID, AREN, MOREEBEN, and IDEES DUBARA as formal partners
and INRAN and AGRHYMET as additional supporting stakeholders.
The project is part of the programme Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and
Disasters (BRACED), comprising 15 projects in the Sahel, and South- Southeast Asia. PRESENCES
was implemented for 3 years, from January 2015 to December 2017 and covered 12 rural
communes of the Tillabéry region. Its principal outcome was to increase anticipation, absorption
and adaptation capacities of poor and vulnerable women and men against climate extremes and
disasters through three main outputs:
1 Improved relevance, access to and use of climate information services, planning
and risk management for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
2 Poor and vulnerable women and men are benefitting from sustainable and
climate-resilient livelihood options.
3 Governance systems and structures at local, national and regional levels support
equitable, sustainable and climate-resilient management of natural resources.
The objectives of the final evaluation, conducted from January to February 2018, were to: 1) assess
the results from the learning packages understood as a series of learning questions linked to a set
of relevant activities related to “credit systems for resilience” and “climate information systems for
resilient decision taking”; 2) to review the Theory of Change with respect to the Coping Strategy
Index and the resilience indicator (KPI4), and; 3) to identify evidence of sustainable change including
examples where institutions internalised resilience-sensitive activities. The evaluation team employed
mixed methods to analyse both qualitative and quantitative data that included the use of monitoring
data from semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and key informant interviews collected
over time to identify trends. The evaluation considered CARE’s organisational approaches to building
resilience and to gender, as well as DFID’s approach for Value for Money. The present evaluation
will complement the wealth of learning products developed during the project and will be a valuable
tool to inform decision making on future phases by the BRACED Knowledge Manager.
The key findings for this evaluation are as follows:
1 Coping strategy Index1
:
An overall improved food security and reduced insecurity of assets is observed over the course of
the project, with some level of PRESENCES contribution can be assumed since the drop of negative
coping strategies for food security dropped by over 70% in the same area where the baseline study
was conducted, and where the project was implemented.
2 The various components of the KPI42
indicator to measure resilience
have shown a mix of upwards and downwards trends, which may be affected by seasonality and
the evolution of institutional and contextual forces. The evidence indicates upwards trends for sub-
indicators linked to assets, savings and livelihood practices while climate information and use of
improved seeds showed less change than expected and the management of conflict linked to natural
resources worsened (possibly due to the deterioration of security in several intervention areas).
3 Climate Information learning package:
People are more likely to follow climate information in 2017 than 2015. The pertinence of climate
information also increased, and more than 50% of total respondents perceived it as very relevant
in 2017. Most of the information was used to choose the appropriate type of crop, which also
supported the diversification of livelihood strategies. The project mainly focused on the link between
Systèmes Communautaires d’Alerte Précoce et de Réponses en situation d’Urgence (SCAP/RU) within
communities and the Observatoire de Suivi de la Vulnérabilité (OSV) at the Commune level, which
strengthened thanks to revitalised flow of information from communities to Communes, particularly
by introducing IT-enabled solutions. Radio channels were found to be the most used source of
information, followed by community groups and meetings; albeit the sustainability of the information
sharing modalities is not ensured due to lack of funding for sustaining radio emissions.
4 Credit Systems Learning package:
Village Savings and Loan Association (VSLAs), Warrantage and Cereal Banks are the main credit
systems supported by PRESENCES. Where these were reinforced by the project, target communities
were more eager to borrow and re-invest in increased production, though there is no evidence
showing whether the profit from investments covers the cost of repaying the loan. At the household
level an increase in savings of 60% was observed in targeted areas, and the correlation analysis
between credit and income amounts provides ground for the assumption that credit systems provided
1 https://www.wfp.org/content/coping-strategies-index-field-methods-manual-2nd-edition
2 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/328254/BRACED-KPI4-methodology-June2014.pdf

an avenue to accelerate income growth. The effect of credit systems also showed a positive
correlation with food security trends, under the form of the number of months that a household
can secure foodstock, which increased on average from 3 to 4 months over the course of the
project. PRESENCES mitigated the risk of unreliable credit mechanisms by establishing governance,
HR and financial structures of cereal banks and warrantage committees. The creation of functioning
committees in selected communities where they were not in place previously, resulted in greater
access to these services and a greater propensity to invest or borrow. Lastly, PHASE cash-for-work
also presented a positive correlation with access to credit but there is no evidence of attribution.
5 Value for Money:
Based on spending till Q3 in 2017, an assessment through the ‘4Es’ (Economy, Efficiency,
Effectiveness and Equity) was conducted (see Section 6.3). The ratio of direct versus indirect costs
is 3.08:1 (for every £3 spent on direct implementation, £1 is spent on indirect costs). The value is
perhaps justified by the geographic spread of the intervention, which required additional resources
to ensure intensive outreach in areas of difficult access and with limited transportation facilities.
Yet the lack of benchmarks does not allow us to be conclusive on this claim. The average cost of
the project is £48.81 per reached individual. Based on numerical metrics and results evidence,
the effectiveness of the project and its social return can be interpreted in many ways, but overall
it shows a positive change in savings, food security and coping strategies. In terms of equity, the
project achieved a balance between men and women in terms of outreach figures (51:49), although
gaps remain in terms of other forms of vulnerabilities.
Based on these findings, a series of recommendations were formed, and the following learnings identified:
1 At design, adequate resources and time to review the theory of change over the
implementation cycle is useful to make sure it remains relevant and valid over time.
As well, having exclusive monitoring staff can better ensure separation between
implementation and monitoring activities, reducing bias in the data.
2 During implementation of resilience programmes, if the advocacy pathway is linked
to regional and national level platforms then the institutionalisation of resilient livelihood
models can be more easily achieved through policy changes and budgetary allocations
at the Commune and community level.
3 For MEAL, if all respondents were uniquely identified then the dataset can be strengthened
and made more longitudinal. Along with respondent identification, improved time
management in collecting monitoring evidence and its consistency over time can provide
a sense of rigour to the analysis. The project is part of the
programme Building Resilience
and Adaptation to Climate
Extremes and Disasters
(BRACED),comprising 15
projects in the Sahel, and
South- Southeast Asia
Jardin baobab et moringa à Tokobinkani Zarma

FINAL EVALUATION | 11
1INTRODUCTION
The “Projet de Résilience face aux Chocs Environnementaux et Sociaux au Niger” (PRESENCES) is a DFID
funded project in Niger, as part of the wider programme “Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate
Extremes and Disasters” (BRACED). The programme covers a 3-year period; PRESENCES started in January
2015 and ended in December 2017 and was implemented in 12 rural communes of the Tillabéry region.3
The project’s main outcome and respective outputs areas as per the Logframe are as follows:
● Outcome: Poor and vulnerable women and men in targeted communes are better able to, anticipate,
absorb and adapt to the consequences of climate extremes and disasters.
● Output 1: Improved relevance, access to and use of climate information services, planning and risk
management for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
● Output 2: Poor and vulnerable women and men are benefitting from sustainable and climate-resilient
livelihood options.
● Output 3: Governance systems and structures at local, national and regional levels support equitable,
sustainable and climate-resilient management of natural resources.
The outcome is built on the contextual assumptions that:
1 There is a low likelihood of 2 successive years of serious drought in the area or flooding that requires
regional-scale humanitarian intervention and neutralises community efforts to build resilience; and
2 The transfer of skills and resources to municipalities will be completed in accordance to local bylaws,
notably local conventions.
PRESENCES was managed by CARE International UK and implemented by CARE Niger, TREE AID and
the following local NGOs: AREN, MOREEBEN,4
and IDEES DUBARA, as well as INRAN and AGRHYMET.
The project worked in close collaboration with governmental bodies such as the Direction National de la
Météorologie (National Meteorology Department), specifically for the sharing of climate information (see
Learning Package 1).
1.1 Overview of BRACED-PRESENCES project
3 The communes are: Anzourou, Ayerou, Dargol, Dessa, Goroual, Gothèye, Hamdallaye, Inates, Makalondi, Mehana, Ouro Gueledjo and Torodi.
In some of the communities, implementation faced challenges due to insecurity, particular in the areas closer to the border with Mali and Burkina Faso.
4 La Fédération des Unions des Groupements Paysans du Niger (The Niger Federation of Farmers’ Unions).
1.2 Definition of resilience in
BRACED & CARE
For CARE, increasing resilience is central to the
organisation’s work5
. CARE understands resilience as in
the following verbatim in page 1 of its technical guidance
document:
“Resilience is about managing risk; dealing with shocks,
stresses and uncertainties that influence people’s abilities to
improve their livelihoods and realise their rights. For CARE,
resilience is an approach: a framework for analysis, planning
and assessment of the impact that is valid in all contexts.
This approach goes far beyond ‘business-as-usual’ in our
areas of programming, and has certain hallmark elements:
● It is based on forward-looking analysis that looks
beyond the present context and considers future
risks and uncertainties to inform decision-making
and planning.
● It contemplates and enables flexible responses,
because the risks faced by people change, sometimes
suddenly and dramatically, at other times gradually.
● It encourages innovation, as new risks and knowledge
emerge in a changing context.”
Increasing resilience is understood as an ongoing process;
it can be achieved by building the capacities and assets of
communities to anticipate, absorb, and adapt to various
shocks, stresses, and uncertainty, and in doing so aims support
an enabling environment that reduces the drivers of risk.
Increased capacities are specifically aiming to help people
to better anticipate risks, absorb shocks, adapt to evolving
conditions and transform through systemic change.
Anticipatory, absorptive and adaptive capacities are
the building blocks of the ‘3As’ approach for resilience
in BRACED. DFID indicates resilience as the ‘ability
to anticipate, avoid, plan for, cope with, recover from
and adapt to climate related shocks and stresses (DFID,
2014)6
. Resilience can apply to individuals, households and
communities and specifically in the BRACED context this
is how it was measured across a wide range of indicators.
1.3 PRESENCES Theory of Change
It is critical to consider PRESENCES Theory of Change
to better address the key evaluation questions and their
expected relationships with evidence from the final
evaluation. To begin with, the problem to be addressed
lies on the following issue: “The livelihoods of women
and men in Niger are vulnerable to climate variability and
extremes, through three causes:
1 high exposure;
2 high sensitivity of their livelihoods and asset base, and
3 low adaptive capacity at the individual and
institutional level.
To achieve scale, the priorities across all levels were
set through processes such as the Climate Vulnerability
and Capacity Analysis (CVCA), Participatory Scenario
Planning (PSP), and Community Adaptation Action
Plan (CAAP), and through linkages with Commune level
officials, technical and private sector actors and other
governance structures. The combined approach included
the consideration of the following expectations:
● Equitable community-based interventions to build
resilience within households and communities by
empowering women and marginalised groups through
knowledge for decision-making, and increasing buffers
against shocks;
● Increasing capacity of informal and formal institutions
to support communities through forward-looking
decision-making, and equitable and inclusive solutions;
● Reinforcing policy environment and multi-level
political implication to enable climate change
adaptation for women and men and to build resilience
at all levels.
5 https://careclimatechange.org/publications/increasing-resilience-theoretical-guidance-document-careinternational/
6 http://www.garama.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/ICF-KPI4-methodology-Oct2014.pdf
10 | www.actionagainsthunger.org.uk

This approach was described as a knowledge-practice-
behaviour continuum, and PRESENCES theory design is
based on this sequence of changes. In other words, the
consortium’s Theory of Change is rooted in the idea of a
knowledge-practice-behaviour continuum that posits if
people are given the appropriate and relevant knowledge
they can then change their actions or practices as a result
of this new knowledge and in turn, change their behaviour.
Knowledge
It relates to how PRESENCES contributed to women
and men accessing knowledge, capacity, and stronger
institutions and how it contributed to enabling better
livelihood systems in spite of climate risks, through three
areas:
● Relevance, access to, and use of climate information
services, planning and risk management for Climate
Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction
(DRR);
● Benefits from sustainable and climate-resilient
livelihoods options;
● Governance systems and structures at local, national,
and regional levels support equitable, sustainable, and
climate-resilient management of natural resources.
Practice
To explain how these outputs can translate into
intermediary outcomes, it is possible to track how
PRESENCES participants acted on their knowledge over
a period of time. Through all actors adopting resilience-
building strategies, these sequences of changes were
expected to be achieved and measured. Indicators to
track these changes would generate data to assess
if/how new/increased information/knowledge was
received and how it translated in increasing the capacity
of individuals to meet/exceed basic needs, and if in turn
this would result in a community’s increased ability to
mitigate its losses from unavoidable shocks and stressors
in the future. On this basis, the final evaluation provides
some evidence about a growing trend of resilient rural
practices internalised and acted on by communities.
Behaviour
The greater combined effect of knowledge and acquired
practices was projected to result in the adoption of new
behaviours in support of livelihood improvements and
adaptations over time. These in turn would reduce the
livelihood system’s vulnerability to climate change. The
project’s intended impact is composed by a reduction
of: 1) the magnitude of livelihood losses, and 2) the
frequency of asset bases being disrupted by climate
shocks and stressors. This was envisioned to be a
consequence of improved coping strategies, community-
level actions, governance mechanisms and support to the
capacity of local and national stakeholders.
2 OBJECTIVES OF
THE FINAL EVALUATION
2.1 Key objectives
The objectives agreed with CARE and the BRACED
Knowledge Manager for this evaluation are to:
1 Address the priority learning packages “credit systems
for resilience” and “climate information systems for
resilient decision taking”: These areas cover Participatory
Scenario Planning (PSPs), Community Vulnerability
Capacity Assessment (CVCAs), Community Adaptation
Action Plan (CAAPs), Village Savings Loan Associations
(VSLAs), warrantage and cereal banks. The list relates to
activities forming packages for credit and information
system strengthening during chronic climate shocks.
2 Review and validate the theory of change from
the impact and outcome level: The final evaluation
considered the PRESENCES Theory of Change when
explaining results. The evaluation assessed any
significant trends of change in relation to coping
strategies and resilience indicators from the available
sources of monitoring and evaluation evidence.
3 Identify evidence of sustainable change: The study,
in considering the Theory of Change and resilience
continuums, identified which strands of evidence
indicated some early signs of sustained trends derived
from a consolidation of climateresilience practices.
2.1.1 Learning areas
The learning areas proposed for this evaluation are
line with the expectations of the BRACED Knowledge
Manager to focus on packages of activities to learn about
how change took place through adequate triangulation
of implementing partners’ interviews with different
sets of monitoring evidence collected over time. The
evaluation team adopted such an approach to further
investigate the following areas and cross-cutting themes:
Table 1: Learning Areas
Area 1: Credit systems for resilience
a What types of credit systems were employed in PRESENCES?
b Did people see the PHASE cash-for-work intervention as a
form of credit system?
c What leads to credit system functioning and how do they
support the most marginalised beyond the intervention in
terms of income generation?
d What are the user investment decisions taken considering
market trends and climate shocks?
e Are people more resilient because they are accessing credit
to diversify their livelihood options or to remain more
food-secure?
f What risks were encountered that could reduce resilience-
building through this system?
Area 2: Climate information systems
for resilient decision taking
a What kind of information did users get in an understandable
fashion, and which livelihood-related decisions was it used to
make? Were there differences depending on type of recipient?
b Did users receive information in time to take decisions?
c What user-focused channels have been used to mainstream
relevant information by the government, and what is the
potential for the EWG/SCAP-RU system to be further
strengthened?
d Were certain communication channels more important than
others and did they change over the course of the project?
e What limitations were encountered in the climate information
systems that could reduce the impact on resilience?
Cross-cutting themes: Gender, Inclusive Governance and Resilience

2.2 Process-related objectives
Along with the learning questions, this evaluation
provides some tentative estimation for economy,
efficiency, effectiveness and equity. The measurement
of the 4Es approach looks both at the results achieved
in the project and whether VfM-friendly systems
and processes are in place at the management and
organisational levels. BRACED had demanding
reporting requirements which ensured a constant
financial and narrative tracking.
By intersecting this information with monitoring and
evaluation evidence, the evaluation team generated some
initial benchmarks in the analysis section based on:
1 Financial expenditures and their disaggregation
per output area
2 Outreach figures along all the KPI1 indicators
3 Significance of outcome change in KPI4 and CSI
(impact indicators)
The quantitative estimates of the 4Es (Economy,
Efficiency, Effectiveness and Equity) indicators are
indicative rather than conclusive, unless further
triangulation confirms a certain trend of evidence.
The series of activities that can be traced to a
trend of change is the focus to understand process-
objectives, which attempt to measure to what extent
we can attribute a statistically measurable change of
knowledge, practice and behaviours with activities
implemented in Niger. The analysis section provides
global estimates for selected indicators that can be
used as benchmark across other resilience projects in
Niger and similar contexts
3 FINAL EVALUATION
METHODOLOGY
3.1 Methodology
To offer a more triangulated analysis of how change
happened in the project, a large set of types of evidence
was selected. The following approaches were adopted:
● Mixed methods: to collect data and respond to the
questions in the evaluation matrix. Emphasis was given
on the integration of monitoring evidence with baseline
and final evaluation data to track the evolution of coping
strategies and resilience.
● Participatory: to validate and qualify the key findings
or trends with community leaders and/or key informants
through a variety of participatory exercises such as a
focus group discussions and community-led selection
of respondents. The additional data collection in the
field reinforced or offered new themes emerging out of
monitoring data.
● Multi-stakeholder: to make sure all key actors
(international and local implementing partners,
institutions) in the project cycle got a chance to share
information and to react to the evaluation findings. A
validation workshop with all implementing partners and
additional round of interviews with government officials
and key staff were also conducted in January 2018.
● CARE approaches: to consider key analytical hues
and conceptual frameworks linked to gender, resilience
and Value for Money. The Value for Money approach is
intended as per DFID definition: economy, efficiency,
effectiveness and equity.
● Visually oriented: to render data accessible and to
explain trends of single or multiple variables. Given the
limitations of evidence, a descriptive and visual approach
in statistical analysis seemed to be more appropriate
than inferential analysis. In fact, only in one case an
inferential model was computed to capture initial
elements of causality between variables.
3.2 Sources/use of information
Thanks to a large variety of sources of information, some
of the trends are proven from a wide array of datasets and
reports. The ones considered for this evaluation were:
● Monitoring evidence: BRACED-PRESENCES offered an
extensive set of digitallycollected monitoring evidence,
project trackers and reports to outline key trends of
change. The 4 monitoring tools, also attached in Annex
6, were: 1. Individual household monitoring semi-
structured surveys (5060) 2. Community monitoring
semi-structured surveys (146) 3. Institutional monitoring
semi-structured surveys (161) 4. VSLA longitudinal
monitoring semi-structured surveys (1513)
● Validation workshop: Gathering information from all
implementing partners for this evaluation was necessary
to validate the direction of change and its segmentation
across different needs linked to the learning packages:
credit and climate information systems. All implementing
partners participated to the validation workshop.
● Coping Strategy Index: The impact indicator
represented by the Coping Strategy Index (CSI)
was collected both at baseline and close to the end
of project’s implementation from a total of 1296
respondents. Since seasonality created a bias in its
comparability, this study also includes qualitative
triangulation through 36 focus group discussions with
community members in villages targeted by PRESENCES
to better explain the attribution of CSI rate of change.
The discussion articulated around the frequency of
negative coping strategies and what were the reasons
of any change with respect to the past two years.
● Key informants’ interviews: The extent to which
activities to enhance resilience had been included
into institutional actions was appraised by analysing
the monitoring evidence and additional interviews
conducted by the evaluation team. Semistructured
interviews were conducted with 16 participants (7
PRESENCES/CARE staff and 9 local authority or
technical services representatives). The full list of
interviewees can be found in Annex 4.
©OllivierGirard/CARE

3.3 Data visualisation approach
The combination of descriptive, trend and inferential analysis is used to build a comprehensive picture of how
PRESENCES is affecting the lives of project recipients. Figures and graphs are used to support and strengthen our
understanding of the effect PRESENCES is having on shortand medium-term coping. A summary of the figures and
graphs used to support this analysis is provided below.
A descriptive approach in statistical analysis was favoured over inferential models. In fact, given some of the data
limitation, the analysis of median and mean values over time seemed more suitable than p-values. The complexity of
resilience results can hardly fit R-square values and confidence intervals when the explanatory variables are so many
and some of which are outside of the control of the project.
The monitoring framework underpinning the
PRESENCES project offers a wealth of qualitative and
quantitative data across various indicators. Therefore,
the evaluation team leveraged extensively on monitoring
information to explain the link between packages of
activities and trends of results across Communes in
Niger. In particular, the KPI4 was developed to monitor
outcome changes intended as resilience. Its design was
carried out since inception by mapping all activities with
the areas of change in the Logframe. A participatory
approach was adopted to ensure CARE Niger and
partners owned the tool and managed to monitor it over
time. Each sub-indicator was quantified into a number
from either a binary Yes/No or a numerical range. The
following list of sub-indicators were the ones agreed to
form the KPI4 index:
1 Integration of climate forecast information
improves coping strategies
a Better seed management (No. of seeds)
b The type of seeds to be used (local versus improved)
c Respect of sowing periods based on climate
information
d Respect for climate information in herd
management
2 Improved seed utilization; participation in savings
banks; use of NTFPs; access to warrantage, capital
stock or savings growth (at the household level)
a Number and type of livestock saved
b Savings in monetary form
c Value added from new integrated and
disseminated farming practices
3 New agricultural practices satisfyand exceed food needs
a Number of months of food needs coverage based
on own production
b Diversification of new resilient farming practices
4 Local, national and regional systems and
governance structures are equitable
a Satisfaction with committees that manage access
to water
5 Equitable and inclusive access of natural resources
for both farmers and pastoral groups
a Knowledge of access rules to natural resources
6 Impact of conflict on the productive resources
of women and men in the last 12 months
a Individual affected by conflicts related to natural
resources
b Indemnity paid, and conflict solved by institutions
in the last 12 months
7 Confidence in local institutions to manage
natural resources at the Commune level
a Participation in the development of local
conventions on natural resource management
b Use of the services of local conflict management
institutions
Monitoring evidence for the KPI4 was of sufficient
quality as adapted from patterns of openended
responses. The initial qualitative nature of the surveys
evolved into a more structured and quantifiable one
to enable the evaluation team to generalise trends and
observe patterns. Most analysis was derived from over
5000 household interviews over the span of 3 years.
The distribution of these interviews was not consistent
and only in about 40% of cases included the same
respondents. More details on the sample structure
reflecting the target population distribution is in Table 1
of Annex 1.
3.4 Outcome monitoring through KPI4
Type of Visual Types of Analysis Conducted
Bar Graphs/Histograms Shows the number of times that an event occurs, either as a raw number (frequency
count) or as a percentage. The horizontal (x) axis represents the variable being
measured, and the vertical (y) axis shows the number or percentage of occurrences
for each value in the x axis.
Shows the trend over time of a variable. Trends can be plotted as lines or as box-plots
as well and they either follow a quarterly or yearly frequency.
Shows the spread of data for a variable. The line in the colourful box represents the
median (or midpoint) of the data. The bottom and top of the coloured box represent
the interquartile range (the 25 and 75 percentiles respectively). The lines at either
side of the coloured box end at the lowest and highest values for that variable.
Outliers (values which are viewed as unusual) are represented by dots.
The proposed visualisation of qualitative data provides a global view of the topics
(and how they differ from each other), while at the same time allowing for a deep
inspection of the terms most highly associated with each individual topic.
The variable being explored (response or dependent variable) is displayed in the
top line as the ‘Dep. Variable’. The other variables in the model (explanatory or
independent variables) are listed on the bottom left of the table. The column titled
‘P>[z]’ displays the p value, which indicates whether or not the relationship between
the explanatory and response variable is significant. A p value of less than 0.05 is
said to be statistically significant. Finally, the column titled ‘coef’ indicates whether
there is a positive or negative relationship between the explanatory and response
variable. When introducing each sub-section for each line of inquiry, each
explanatory variable with a statistically significant relationship with the response
variable is labelled with two asterisks ‘**’.
Trends analysis
Box Plots
Word Processing
Regression Table

3.5 Evaluation through CSI data
The Coping Strategy Index measures behaviour about what people do when they cannot access enough food. There
are several regular behavioural responses to food insecurity—or coping strategies—that people use to manage
household food shortage. These coping strategies are easy to observe. It is quicker, simpler, and cheaper to collect
information on coping strategies than on actual household food consumption levels. Hence, the CSI was considered
as an appropriate tool for this project as this method seemed practical and rapid. The key questions are:
Given accessible evidence on the Coping Strategy Index, PRESENCES impact indicator, this evaluation also offers
further data analysis on its trend. The sample structure seemed to be representative enough to infer tentative claims
of contribution of PRESENCES towards its expected impact. In the table below, it is important to consider that even
though individual respondents were not the same, the distribution of data across Communes was maintained - which
gives more strength to the analysis of change before and after implementation.
The data was collected with limited consistency in some
areas because of security reasons. The Communes
bordering with Burkina Faso and Mali became
increasingly inaccessible, including by government
stakeholders. In addition to the inability to access
representative data because of heightened risk, there are
other important biases to consider:
● All responses for individuals rely on a dataset with
some repeated observations from the same household.
Yet, this type of data is not fully longitudinal, only 43%
are repeated observations from the same respondent in
the monitoring dataset for individuals, therefore its
causal representativeness is limited. In other words,
the amount of evidence collected might represent
some Communes more than others by observing data
distribution across Tillabéri. This data gap is quite
severe, and it is important to keep it in mind when
reading the evidence.
● Data quality is questionable since there was not a
strong quality control mechanism in place,
enumerators were also implementing activities
therefore the impartiality of data is limited.
● Seasonality skews trends since respondents are
more likely to report distress during the lean season.
Baseline and endline CSI collections were done in
different seasons (dry and harvest). Because of the
inability to perform an ex-post evaluation in the
same period and it is likely that the reported drop
is also explained by a seasonal factor, which
PRESENCES accelerated.
● Inferential models are partially effective as the
sample is not always consistent with target distribution
(KPI1 indicator) across different Communes. For this
reason, the direction of a relationship between two
variables might be also explained by external factors
not in control of PRESENCES.
● Interviews with key informants were also limited in
number because of their time availability, therefore
the analysis provided cannot be conclusive but rather
informs ‘soft’ aspects of programming and validates
(or illustrates some variance in perspectives of) the
quantitative and secondary source analysis.
The project adopted mitigation measures to improve
the quality of data collection through four rounds of
tools review with the implementing partners. The review
of the tool was conducted to ensure the questions
reflected the logic of the project and answers in order
to capture the most recurrent patterns of experiences
from respondents. This exchange increased ownership
over the data collection process and refined the quality
of evidence used for this analysis. Yet, the underlying
problem of poor consistency in ensuring adequate
sample structure is exemplified in the Annex tables
showing number of respondents per Commune. There is
a clear concentration of responses in limited areas, which
might also represent a proxy of implementation since
most of the monitoring was executed by field staff in
charge of implementing activities.
3.6 Limitations
Food security Asset security
a Rely on less preferred and less expensive foods?
b Borrow food, or rely on help from a friend or relative?
c Purchase food on credit?
d Gather wild food, hunt, or harvest immature crops?
e Consume seed stock held for next season?
f Send household members to eat elsewhere?
g Send household members to beg?
h Limit portion size at mealtimes?
i Restrict consumption by adults in order for small
children to eat?
j Feed working members of HH at the expense of
non-working members?
k Reduce number of meals eaten in a day?
l Skip entire days without eating
a Record more expenditures than usual to buy food
b Sell your labour force to buy food
c Sell breeding animals for food needs
d Sell non-productive goods (jewellery, valuables, attic,
home, work tool, etc.) for food needs
e Selling productive assets (oxen, plow, cart) for reasons
of food insecurity
f Sell land for reasons of food insecurity
g Entrust your children to the marabouts
h Losing your property because of gambling
i Resort to the sale of wood and straws
j Put your fields in pledge to buy food
k Use of anthill digs
l Do forbidden or abnormal things to eat
Table 2: Baseline and Endline Sample for Coping Strategy Index (CSI)
Respondents per Commune Baseline Endline Grand
CSI Index M F Total M F Total Total
Anzourou 7 26 33 9 24 33 66
Ayorou 15 15 30 Not accessible7
30
Dargol 79 44 123 39 27 66 189
Dessa 40 50 90 40 20 60 150
Gotheye 72 29 101 48 29 77 178
Gueladio 27 3 30 22 9 31 61
Hamdallaye 59 3 62 46 7 53 115
Inates 23 13 36 Not accessible 36
Makalondi 40 19 59 27 26 53 112
Mehenna 21 10 31 5 5 10 41
Torodi 117 34 151 90 55 145 296
Grand Total 500 246 746 326 202 550 1296
7 Due to security restrictions

4 CONTEXT ANALYSIS
4.1 Contextual forces identified at baseline and their trends
The evaluation considered contextual developments since PRESENCES began and the extent to which they informed
how chronic stressors and political forces evolved over time. This analysis was carried out through the review of
both secondary and primary qualitative data and concluded that there was no significant change in the context from
baseline, with a few exceptions. The main context-related issues areas are broken down in the following table and they
describe how various contextual forces identified at inception evolved over time.
8 Hama H.H. et Issoufou O.K: “Les services météo s’allient aux agro-pasteurs pour le partage des prévisions saisonnières et conseils agricoles au Niger”.
Issue at
baseline Baseline
Improved seeds From the baseline study, the availability of improved seed[s]
was considered as a bottleneck in the project intervention area
The chronic stressors identified for this project are mainly related
to climate shocks that can be categorised as in the following:
l Rainfall/precipitation in the Tillabéri region: precipitation is
characterised by high variability from one year to the next.
Since 2010, there has been a shortening of the rainy season’s
duration with a tendency for the season to start late.
l Drought: ‘Drought periods (more than 10 days) have not been
recorded in most communes in the Tillabéri region in the past
decade (2003-2012), and there have not been two successive
years of serious deficits in the area since the 1980s.’
l Floods: ‘The Tillabéri region is one of the regions in Niger
most affected by floods.’ Risk is more critical for the communes
that are close to the river banks.
In the 1990s Niger went through a move of decentralisation of
government powers which was followed by a decentralisation law
and a process to transfer resources and skills to communes. According
to the baseline report, the transfer of skills was not followed by
the equal transfer of financial and therefore human resources.
Development stakeholders should have the assurance of continuity
through the execution of commune development plans, PDC
which are not linked to the candidate, but represent continuity.
Community Development Plans (PDC) are developed through a
participatory process and consider gender and the need to support
vulnerable groups. The guide for the development of the PDCs
has been revised to include intercommunality and to take climate
change into account.
Forecast information broadcasts are not public but appear in
newspapers and newsletters of the National Network of the
Chambers of Agriculture of Niger (RECA) and the West Africa
Seasonal Forecast Initiative (PRESAO). The most accessible
broadcasts to the largest number of people cover rainfall records,
through radio channels.
There is always a lack of sharing by government agencies
(meteorology) through the information channels and climate
predictions are increasingly given at population level through
programmes responsible for change issues and climate variability
Excluding any changes in the modus operandi of Boko Haram
or other jihadist groupings, the security situation is under control
and will probably have little or no impact on the implementation
of the PRESENCES project.
Climate
conditions
corresponding
to chronic
stressors
Table 3: PRESENCES Context Development
End of project
Some reported issues from key informants
remain in terms of consistency in providing
improved seeds on time to the communes
Erratic precipitation has still been an issue
along with floods occurring in some areas
of the target region, as well as challenges
to predict the start of the rainy season.
In line with the project’s main
assumptions and findings from the
midterm evaluation, there have not been
two consecutive years of drought in the
project intervention area (but a drought
in project intervention area in 2015).
Sources: KIIs; Mid-Term Evaluation report
No major change in the decentralisation
policy but capacity levels and human
resources differ across communes
Source: KIIs in Torodi, Hamdallaye, Gueladio
No major threat of political instability
during project duration, despite the
elections which took place in 2016.
BRACED has supported the integration
of PACA in the PDC
Source: KIIs, PRESENCES Mid- Term Evaluation).
The process of diffusing forecast
information from regional and national
level to commune level is still not
straightforward: the seasonal forecast
information is first known by PRESASS
and National Meteorology Service (DMN),
and before the relevant meetings and
permissions by Ministers council to publish
are in place, the information does not
reach the Communes.
Source: PRESENCES innovations Case study;8
KIIs.
The security situation has worsened since
the project started, and it affected project
implementation in areas such as Inates,
Gorouol, Ayorou, Dessa, where fewer
activities took place. The final evaluation
itself could not conduct any data
collection in these project areas.
Government/
administrative/
political
environment
Political situation:
elections and
enabling/disabling
environment
Planning
Processes
Dissemination
of seasonal
forecasts
Security
situation

4.2 Climate information systems: SCAP/RU
Since 2012, the coordination of disaster prevention and management in Niger falls under the National Direction of
Prevention and Management of Food Crises/ Dispositif National de Prévention et de Gestion des Crises Alimentaires
(DNPGCA). However, the main functions of the DNPGCA do not reach the Commune level. To re-align the provision
of services, the regulatory framework of Niger has created a decentralised communication channel through which
climate information and responses to climate shocks are disseminated, namely to the Systèmes Communautaires
d’Alerte Précoce et de Réponses en situation d’Urgence (SCAP/RU).
The SCAP/RU consist of 12-member committees at the community level that collect and transmit data to the
Observatoire de Suivi de la Vulnérabilité (OSV) in relation to indicators across 5 vulnerability sectors: climate, food
and feed, health and nutrition, social relations, environment and Resources. The OSV is chaired by the Mayor and is
composed by key Municipal Technical Services (agriculture, livestock, environment), municipal councillors, local civil
society and traditional authorities.
The information sharing can work downwards as much
as upwards, meaning from the communities to higher
governance levels of early warning systems. Radio
broadcasting and community-level sensitization were
the principal means of providing and getting up-to-date
information which can then help agro-pastoralists decide
the most appropriate seed variety and the right timing to
plant in order to reduce harvest losses. The diffusion of
climate information was leveraged by a team of volunteers
at the community-level and mobile technology. The three
community-level interventions used in the context of
PRESENCES to diffuse information were:
1 Engaging community radio: supported to broadcast
climate information and other BRACED activities. The
information has been disseminated to farmers/breeders
in local languages; usually in the evening, which is the most
favourable time to reach the greatest audience. Community
radios existed at the level of Communes & communities.
They were supported by the project; this has improved
the dissemination of climate information in the area.
2 Distributing radio receivers: made available to men
and women leaders of pastoral groups. Radio receivers
can capture information broadcasted through
community radios in pastoral settings where the signal
is weaker, or where the diffusion of radios is lower.
3 Dispensing cellular phones: made available to
community monitors responsible for collecting climate
information. The phones have been used to
communicate information such as the strength and
distribution of rainfall, availability of grazing land and
water sources.
4.3 Financial inclusion
and resilience in PRESENCES
The following categories of credit mechanisms are the
ones targeted by PRESENCES.
A Cereal Banks/Banques Céréalières (BC)
Cereal Banks are stocking facilities at the village-level
for certain types of grains. Cereal banks play a crucial
role in reducing food insecurity because as the stock is
renewed and maintained during the harvest season, the
bulk stocks can be resold at a better sale price during the
lean season. BRACED-PRESENCES, following the CVCA
processes in which the need was expressed, took on the
reinforcement of the Cereal Banks that pre-existed in the
intervention areas.
B Warrantage The Warrantage is a produce saving
and credit approach used and implemented by CARE
in Niger since the late 90’s (inspired by WFP) and it
consists of offering credit to farmers in exchange for
storing part of their produce in a designated storehouse.
The practice minimises complete sell-off of the harvest
and enables investing the credit on Income Generating
Activities (IGAs). The Warrantage is used on an individual
or household level (rather than community) and allows
building a safety capital through saving seeds instead
of consuming them and at the same time redirecting
the harvest to the market at times when it is most
profitable. In cases where surplus of harvest and seeds is
not available due to a ‘bad’ year, the Warrantage is also
possible with Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFP) such
as baobab leaves, ‘doum’ palm fruits, etc. which allows
even more vulnerable groups to access this service.
C Village Savings & Loans Associations
(VSLAs) VSLAs are also a system implemented by CARE
International in Niger since 1991. VSLAs have proven to
increase access to financial services for people who may
live far from such services, who have low financial literacy,
and who traditionally may not have control over assets (i.e.
women). Additionally they provide members with a welfare
fund in times of emergency alongside access credit.
In the context of BRACED-PRESENCES, it was
implemented by the project partner IDEES Dubara under
the approach of “Mata Masu Dubara” (MMD/ Women
on The Move)9
with the primary objective to provide
a mechanism for savings and credit. These groups also
led to building social capital amongst group members
and within communities, a vital component of effective
community risk preparedness and mitigation. Normally
the groups comprise 15-30 members, who meet weekly
or regularly and deposit a pre-decided amount of savings
by purchasing shares. VSLAs generally operate with
simple methods of accounting and establish guiding
principles around loan terms, interest rates etc decided
by each group. PRESENCES has reignited some VSLA
groups that were created before the project by providing
trainings and supporting the groups to operate optimally
(BRACED capitalisation document, 2017).
The OSV is a framework and a system of sharing and managing information that aims to contribute to improving
information on the causes of vulnerability in nutrition and food security, improving systems of local disaster
management, and to increasing local accountability amongst community actors, NGO and government. It is formed
on a participatory and consensual basis and therefore depends significantly on the representation and collaboration
of different communal actors. PRESENCES focused especially on the link between SCAP-RU and OSV by building
capacities of the Technical Services to track a set of vulnerability indicators along with digitising the data collection.
The higher levels of governance of climate information were not targeted as much, especially given the limited mandate
and authority to influence and strengthen the overall information flow.
9 Details available at: https://www.microfinancegateway.org/sites/default/files/mfg-en-toolkit-mata-masu-dubarawomens-savings-and-credit-groups-training-guide-1998_0.pdf
map 1 SCAP/RU graphical representation of information flow
AMÉLIORATION DU FONCTIONNEMENT DU DNPGCA
DNPGCA
CMC CRC
CCA OPVN CC/SAP
ES GTI - SAP ET CCA
CR/PGCC
CSR/PGCC
OSV
SCAP-RU SCAP-RU SCAP-RU SCAP-RU

5 FINAL EVALUATION RESULTS
5.1 Outline of PRESENCES outreach per location
The geographical scope of PRESENCES is in the Tillabéry region of Niger across 12 Communes. The map below
shows in green the location of targeted Communes. The overall population of the area targeted was over 400,000
individuals. Yet, the evolution of certain security threats in border areas impeded the direct reach of individuals and
communities to match what envisaged at inception.
10 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/328261/BRACED-KPI-1-guidance.pdf
Generally, outreach equates to the number of individuals reached directly within a geographical area. In the case
of PRESENCES, the outreach corresponds to the KPI110
indicator, which is a combination of the number of single-
counted targeted individuals from an activity (high intensity) and members of the household of a person targeted
from an activity (medium intensity). The graph below shows the outreach distribution per Commune.
From the estimations shared by the team
PRESENCES, the areas of Torodi, Dargol and Gorouol
contain the greatest number of targeted high and
medium intensity project participants11. To provide
more depth to this figure, another way to analyse
outreach is by dividing the populations per type of
activity that took place in selected communities
for each Commune. The lower the ratio, the more
frequently a certain activity was conducted in a
Commune. This information is useful if a correlation
between results and locations (Commune )is derived
based on how many activities related to the same
learning package took place in one location.
GRAPH 1
OuOutreach high and medium-targeted
intensity per Commune
From the visual representation, Dargol and Gotheye represent areas where project activities took place in more
populated communities with respect to other Communes since in Tillabéri region some Communes are more densely
populated than others. This is important to keep in mind during the analysis because the amount of activities in
populated communities is sometimes correlated with significant higher changes for certain indicators, which could
indicate effective delivery, even though there is not conclusive evidence this would be the case. A second way to
investigate inputs distribution is to consider the average number of package-related activities related to climate
information and credit carried out across target communities for each Commune.
GRAPH 2
Activities per number of single counted individuals
11 Targeted High Intensity Women: 14,368; Targeted High Intensity Men: 15,371; Medium Intensity Total: 86,016
map 2 Niger PRESENCES Intervention Area
NUMBER OF TARGETED INDIVIDUALS (HIGH+MEDIUM INTENSITY)
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
ANZOUROU
AYOROU
DARGOL
DESSA
GOUROUOL
GOTHEYE
GUELADIO
HAMDALLAYE
INATES
MAKALONDI
MEHENNA
TORODI
ACTIVITY INTENSITY: POPULATION/ACTIVITY
TARGET/TOTAL ACTIVITIES
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
ANZOUROU
AYOROU
DARGOL
DESSA
GOUROUOL
GOTHEYE
GUELADIO
HAMDALLAYE
INATES
MAKALONDI
MEHENNA
TORODI
TARGET/CLIMATE INFO TARGET/CREDIT SYSTEM
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
ANZOUROU
AYOROU
DARGOL
DESSA
GOUROUOL
GOTHEYE
GUELADIO
HAMDALLAYE
INATES
MAKALONDI
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
ANZOUROU
AYOROU
DARGOL
DESSA
GOUROUOL
GOTHEYE
23
Normally the groups comprise 15-30 members, who meet weekly or regularly and deposit a
pre-decided amount of savings by purchasing shares. VSLAs generally operate with simple
methods of accounting and establish guiding principles around loan terms, interest rates etc
decided by each group. PRESENCES has reignited some VSLA groups that were created before
the project by providing trainings and supporting the groups to operate optimally (BRACED
capitalisation document, 2017).
5. FINAL EVALUATION RESULTS
5.1. Outline of PRESENCES outreach per location
The geographical scope of PRESENCES is in the Tillabéry region of Niger across 12 Communes.
The map below shows in green the location of targeted Communes. The overall population of
the area targeted was over 400,000 individuals. Yet, the evolution of certain security threats in
border areas impeded the direct reach of individuals and communities to match what envisaged
at inception.
Map 2: Niger PRESENCES Intervention Area
Generally, outreach equates to the number of individuals reached directly within a geographical
area. In the case of PRESENCES ,the outreach corresponds to the KPI110
indicator, which is a
combination of the number of single-counted targeted individuals from an activity (high
intensity) and members of the household of a person targeted from an activity (medium
intensity). The graph below shows the outreach distribution per Commune.
10
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/328261/BRACED-KPI-1-
guidance.pdf

The graph above shows how Anzourou, Hamdallaye, Gueladio and Makalondi, were the object of more programmatic
focus in the learning areas under study: climate and credit information systems, receiving a greater number of
activities relatively to their total population.
GRAPH 3
Activities per area and total outreach figures12
12 Climate Information activities (blue line): Conducted Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis; Facilitated Participatory Scenario Planning; Facilitated Community
Adapatation Action Plan (CAAP); Supported Structures Communautaires d’Alerte Précoce et des Réponses aux Urgences (SCAP-RU); Carried out dissemination strategies
of climate info by reinforcing community radio and informal channels Credit System activities (grey line): Established committees to manage cereal banks and warrantage;
Provided cashfor-work through PHASE emergency response; Trained communities on market analysis; Trained village agents and created new VSLA groups
5.2 Coping Strategy Index (CSI)
The CSI measures the frequency, both weekly and
monthly, of negative coping strategies used by
households to ensure they are able to meet immediate
food needs. The tool is frequently used by different
agencies including CARE and the World Food
Programme. It was collected twice (baseline and endline)
and it provides a weighted value per strategy of how
frequently respondents undertook selected actions and
behaviours.
GRAPH 4
CSI Food per Commune13
The impact indicator of the project is measured through the
coping strategy index (see Annex 2: Tools), which is itself
divided into 2 components: food security and asset security.
The food security dimension pertains to a range of
negative coping strategies to address the most immediate
needs, especially hunger related. The asset related
questions examine coping strategies more strongly
related to the use of productive resources to alleviate
long-term poverty conditions. From the graphical
representation of CSI data, there is strong evidence of
a significant drop of negative coping strategies across
all Communes, especially in Gotheye, Makalondi and
Hamdallaye.
Such decisive decrease in food-related coping by an
average value of 70% across all Communes from baseline
value might be at least in part explained by seasonality.
Baseline data was collected far from the rainy season whilst
endline data was collected during a more favourable season.
However, even when factoring this explanation in, the
difference between coping mechanism at baseline and
endline is strong enough to suggest PRESENCES played
an important role as well.
13 The coping strategy index value is the product between weekly frequency of a certain coping strategy (1-7) and its
perceived severity from a scale of 1 to 4. The higher the value, the higher the food insecurity.
AVERAGE NUMBER OF ACTIVITIES ACROSS COMMUNITIES
AVERAGE ACTIVITIES
6
NUMBEROFACTIVITIES
5
4
3
2
1
0
ANZOUROU
AYOROU
DARGOL
DESSA
GOUROUOL
GOTHEYE
GUELADIO
HAMDALLAYE
INATES
MAKALONDI
MEHENNA
TORODI
CLIMATE INFO CREDIT SYSTEMS
COPING STRATEGY INDEX FOR FOOD SECURITY
YEAR OF DATA COLLECTION
25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
CSI FOOD—HIGHER VALUE EQUALS TO GREATER INSECURITY
ANZOUROU
DARGOL
DESSA
GOTHEYE
GUELADIO
HAMDALLAYE
MAKALONDI
MEHENNA
TORODI
BLANK
AYOROU
INATES 2015 2017

GRAPH 5
CSI Asset per Commune
The Coping Strategy Index for asset insecurity also
shows a similar downward trend (reduction of incidence
where assets are sold), albeit less pronounced than the
food security coping mechanisms. The drop in assets
’’insecurity” is about 30% from the baseline value on
average across all Communes. The value is derived by
looking at the average frequency of all negative coping
strategies related to assets use for food needs between
baseline and endline. Its value explains long-term poverty
alleviation strategies and can be achieved with longer
timelines since assets are understood as goods that have
lasting value.
One approach that can further optimise qualitative
triangulation of the CSI is by looking at topics discussed
during the 36 focus groups conducted as part of the
evaluation. These discussions focused on project
participants managed to reduce the severity of coping
strategies. The analysis of qualitative text digitally
collected was processed by the Latent Dirichlet
Allocation algorithm14
, a probabilistic -based model on
frequency of words, an effective mean to identify key
patterns from large sample of respondents. In this case,
the groups converged to a theme that best explain this
change. Thirty percent of the groups stated that improved
seeds through the warrantage system contributed to
income growth. Even though the number of participants
is not statistically representative, this remains the most
recurrent indication to explain the relationship between
coping strategies and the project.
14 http://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/generated/sklearn.decomposition.LatentDirichletAllocation.html
5.3 Outcome indicator KPI4 for Resilience
The KPI4 indicator represents the measurement of outcome change in terms of resilience as described in detail in
section 3.4. The graph below offers an effective way to understand which sub-indicators showed positive trends over
the course of the project. As data collection for this indicator started at the beginning of activities (Q4 in 2015), the
trends follow the course of project implementation.
The most consistent upward trends for resilience are
presented in quarterly percentages since 2015. This
is the best way to visualise the data given the gaps
in consistency between months. It is possible trends
correlate with one another but there is no evidence to
prove this relationship from control groups. The graph
above shows that the livelihood dimension experienced
an improvement, the sub-indicator of reported value of
months food security (red line) steadily increased by a
total of 65% despite seasonality factors from a global
mean value of 2.9 months in 2015 to 4.7 months in
2017. In addition, the number of rural practices steadily
increased by 83% (purple line) from a mean value of 0.4
reported practices in 2015 to 2.1 new ones in 2017.
Similarly, the savings sub-indicator (green line) improved
by 66% since the beginning of the project, though their
drivers are heavily influenced by seasonality. Positive
perception towards water committees increased by over
20% as well. From this graph, we can infer that livelihood
has improved over time along with food security though
there are contextual factors that can explain some
variance, but the overall trend seems upwards. Since the
questions were asked to project participants in areas of
PRESENCES intervention, there is a potential correlation
between project activities and these trends. This is an
interpretation that lacks conclusive evidence from a
more rigorous approach of tracking cohorts of control
and target groups in the same areas.
GRAPH 6
Resilience upward trends
COPING STRATEGY INDEX FOR ASSET SECURITY
YEAR OF DATA COLLECTION
50 10 15 20
CSI ASSETS—HIGHER VALUE EQUALS TO GREATER ASSET INSECURITY
ANZOUROU
DARGOL
DESSA
GOTHEYE
GUELADIO
HAMDALLAYE
MAKALONDI
MEHENNA
TORODI
BLANK
AYOROU
INATES 2015 2017
GREATEST UPWARD TRENDS IN RESILIENCE SUB-INDICATORS
0.8
PROXIMITYTOFULLSCOREEQUALSTO1
QUARTERS FROM 2015 TO 2017
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
Q4 Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 Q2 Q3
0.1
0.0
SAVINGS AMOUNTS
MONTHS OF FOOD SECURITY
NUMBER OF EXAMPLES OF NEW RURAL PRACTICES ADOPTED
SATISFACTION TOWARDS WATER COMMITTEES
HOW MANY NEW RURAL PRACTICES ADOPTED

Some other sub-indicators related to institutional
strength in managing natural resources have shown
the opposite trends. The graph above points out that
engaging formal institutional bodies in managing conflict
pertaining to natural resource and regulating sanctions
has weakened over time, possibly because a deteriorating
security situation diminished the role of institutions in
some Communes. Lack of participation of target groups
in drafting local conventions also remains an issue. It
is likely that security threats lowered the engagement
of government stakeholders in providing participatory
and consultative platforms where to solve conflicts and
exchange with civil society members.
Aside from these trend lines, the other sub indicators
did not show significant patterns. Hence, the evidence
shows rural practices and access to greater monetary
resources are the most suitable to describe change
while institutional engagement for natural resource
management remains the weakest link in PRESENCES
multi-faceted definition of resilience. The evolution of
the context in Niger is to be considered as the most likely
explanation behind these trends and PRESENCES did
not reverse the structural issues related to institutional
response in managing natural resources.
GRAPH 7
Resilience downward trends
5.4 Learning package 1: Climate information
The PRESENCES area of work in climate information systems was mainly related to an overall reinforcement of SCAP/
RU - the decentralised system to share climate information as explained in Section 4.2 - and community-based platforms
meant to strengthen the use of climate information. The community-level engagement strategies were carried out by
PRESENCES implementing partners through an initial vulnerability and capacity assessment to identify how climate
information was initially understood by communities. Then, while disseminating scientific climate information via various
channels, PRESENCES facilitated community response in the use of natural resources according to forecast through
adaptation of action plans and scenario planning. Therefore, the learning package that underpins the climate information
systems for resilience links to the following list of activities that were conducted by PRESENCES:
5.4.1 Type of climate
information &
its use by project
participants
Types of climate-related information
and its use supported through the
PRESENCES project
The types of climate information that
were identified during the workshop
organised with all implementing
partners in Niger during January
2018 as part of the end-line are
mostly related to rain patterns and
crop selection. The implementing
partners’ participating in this
workshop also mentioned how
this type of information was used
at the household, community and
institutional levels. The following table
is the result of what partners observed
in relation to climate information use
by project participants during their
direct engagement with PRESENCES.
ACTIVITY 1
CONDUCTED CLIMATE
VULNERABILITY &
CAPACITY ANALYSIS
ACTIVITY 2
FACILITATED PARTICIPATORY
SCENARIO PLANNING
FACILITATED COMMUNITY
ADAPTATION ACTION
PLAN (CAAP)
ACTIVITY 3
SUPPORTED STRUCTURES
COMMUNAUTAIRES
D’ALERTE PRÉCOCE ET
DES RÉPONSES AUX
URGENCES (SCAP-RU)
ACTIVITY 4
CARRIED OUT
DISSEMINATION
STRATEGIES OF CLIMATE
INFO BY REINFORCING
COMMUNITY RADIO &
INFORMAL CHANNELS
Type of climate
Information:
Examples of how climate
information was used
1 Date of the beginning
of the rainy seasons
by department
2 Date of the end of
the rainy season
by department
3 Periods of droughts
during the rainy
season
4 Cumulative rainfall
5 Distribution of
crop failures
6 Epizooties data
7 Agro-climatic advice
8 Best pathways
for transhumance
Household-level
l Types of seeds adapted to the season
l Choice of land where to crop
l Kind of dietary supplements for livestock depending
on the forecasted quality of the season
l Complementary livelihood activities
(irrigation, migration etc.)
l Priority infrastructures and services at the commune
level needed to address the implications of climate forecast
Community-level
l Vaccinations for livestock
l Choice of dates, place and route of transhumance
l Destocking options
Institutional-level
l Mobilization/financing of CES/DRS activities in the
event of food crises;
l Provision of providing infrastructure and service at the
commune level to meet the needs of farmers & pastoralists
l Information / awareness / support advice of farmers
and breeders;
l Adapt advice support according to climate information
GREATEST DOWNWARD TRENDS IN RESILIENCE SUB-INDICATORS
0.8
PROXIMITYTOFULLSCOREEQUALSTO1
QUARTERS FROM 2015 TO 2017
0.6
0.4
0.2
Q4 Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 Q2 Q3
RELIANCE ON INSTITUTIO TO SOLVE NRM CONFLICT
COMPENSATION FROM CONFLICTS
PARTICIPATION TO DRAFTING LOCAL CONVENTIONS
FOLLOW CLIMATE INFORMATION PASTORAL GROUPS

One of the major intervention models used for the
information to be operationalised is the Participatory
Scenario Planning (PSP) organised across many
communities in almost 90% of all target areas. The
facilitation of designing strategies to internalise and
use scientific climate information contributed to use of
traditional and probability-based indicators in a much
more integrated way. This is due to the fact various key
informants during the final data collection claimed that
communities eventually realised the superior accuracy
of forecast information produced by the weather service
and are now more likely to adopt it when planning their
livelihood decisions that depend on climate changes,
notably rainfall trends. This evidence was not confirmed
by project participants themselves and for this reason it
remains inconclusive.
By further analysing open-ended answers related to
how PSP recommendations were implemented from a
few thousand respondents over the course of 2 years, it
emerged that: in 13.3% of cases (the highest occurrence)
the key emerging patterns seem linked to the acquired
ability of interpreting winds movement and how they
correlate with the life cycle of selected crops. From
this data, traditional knowledge of reading the wind
movements can be interpreted as an effective entry point
to explain the basis for introducing probability-based
forecasting thanks to PRESENCES.
The relationship between climate information,
livelihoods and savings through PRESENCES
From the final workshop held with all relevant
stakeholders at the end of the project in Niger, the
relationships identified between livelihoods and climate
information were:
● Reduction of seed losses by avoiding early planting
of fields
● Reduction of the sale of productive goods which
were meant to finance migration
● Better safeguarding of productive livestock by selling
the aging animals while reinforcing the stock of cattle
feed & avoiding conflicts between farmers and herders;
● Improved management and security of grain stocks
(cereal banks, warrantage) and use of non-timber forest
products to diversify livelihood strategies;
● Diversification of adaptation activities at the
announcement of a bad season;
● Reinforcement of guarding / monitoring of the herd
and avoidance of conflicts in the event of a bad season
announcements;
● Take decisions on the use of agricultural stocks
according to climate information
The way climate information brought livelihood changes
can be further appraised from monitoring evidence related
to reported savings. This was the only resilience sub-
indicator (listed in section 3.4) that showed a correlation
with whether respondents followed climate information.
Therefore, to investigate if improved livelihood decisions
produced an actual change in savings thanks to climate
information, the following graph is presented.
GRAPH 8
Savings and climate information
From the evidence presented, the amount of reported
savings is significantly higher for respondents receiving
and following climate information for both men and
women. In fact, the median value of reported savings
for both groups following climate information increased
from 0 in 2015 and 2016 to 3,600 FCFA, whereas the
median value of savings for groups not following climate
information remained at zero across all three years. This is
a significant change. The proportional increase of savings
amount for women is relatively greater over time but
still less than a third of what men reported. The increase
of saving amounts in monetary form seems to indicate
an interdependence with climate information and credit
systems.
As graph 9 shows, a break-down of savings amount per
Commune indicates that in Hamdallaye, Gueladio and
Torodi, the increase was much greater than in all other
targeted areas. For example in Gueladio, the median
value of reported savings for respondents following
climate information is 10 times higher (20,000 FCFA and
200,000 FCFA respectively). Furtherrmore, the number
of activities delivered in these Communes was relatively
more elevated than in others, an indication of causation
to be probed. For instance the average number of credit-
related activities in targeted communities within the
Communes of Hamdallaye and Gueladio were 9.8 and 9.3
respectively, which is almost twice the average (5.7) for all
Communes combined.
GRAPH 9
Reported savings per Commune
SAVINGS AMOUNT REPORTED
FOLLOW CLIMATE INFORMATION
DARGOL
GOTHEYE
TORODI
HAMDALLAYE
GOROUOL
MEHENNA
MAKALONDI
ANZOUROU
DESSA
AYOROU
GUELADIO
INATES YES NO
0 15000010000050000 250000200000 350000300000 400000
SAVINGS AMOUNT IN FCA IN LAST 12 MONTHS
F GENDER M GENDER
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
NUMBEROFACTIVITIES
FOLLOWING
CLIMATE INFO
2016
2017
NOT FOLLOWING
CLIMATE INFO
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
FOLLOWING
CLIMATE INFO
NOT FOLLOWING
CLIMATE INFO

2016
MONTHS FOOD SECURITY
0
0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5
20000
40000
60000
80000
140000
120000
100000
2017
0
0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5
20000
40000
60000
80000
140000
120000
100000
2015
0
0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5
20000
40000
60000
80000
140000
120000
100000
GRAPH 10
Food security upward trends
As further described by the trend lines in the graph above,
the relationship between number of months with full food
security (x axis) and saving amounts (y axis) accelerated
over the course of PRESENCES implementation. These
data points demonstrate a relationship between the
number of months covered by food needs and how much
savings for each of these values was reported on average
(blue dots).
There are various possible explanations to explain such
a relevant increase in the steepness of savings when put
in relationship with months of food security. The positive
correlation that strengthened multiple times in less than
three years indicates an intervention which triggered
improvement in both food security and the application of
climate information.
5.4.2 Use of received information to take decisions
and its relevancy
Users were exposed to multiple channels for receiving
climate information owing to the implementation
of PRESENCES. The project organised a series of
Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) workshops to share
climate information generated by AGHRYMET at the
national, regional and local levels.
In addition to direct engagement at various levels,
PRESENCES supported the dissemination of
recommendations and opinions through radio stations.
Their role was essential in broadcasting seasonal
forecasts and in sensitising the local population on
resilient technologies such as warrantage, composting,
bio-digesters, herd management, production of multi-
nutritional blocks for animals etc. To further improve the
accessibility of climate information, the project developed
visually-effective communication material distributed to
community leaders (e.g. pagivoltes, which are image boxes
demonstrating different scenarios in expected seasons and
the relevant strategies to adopt) to further increase the
reach of recommendations produced through local PSPs.
Key informant interviews, however, revealed that the
climate information, specifically on the start of raining
season, does not always ‘arrive’ on time, 42% of all key
informants interviewed for this evaluation reported this
issue from both implementing partners and government
stakeholders. There is a critical moment at the beginning
of the expected sowing period where farmers need to decide
time and type of crop they will invest in. If the information
has not been directed through the appropriate channels by
the required time, it may be too late for the population that
will not wait beyond this point. The situation is even more
aggravated for transhumance populations who need to decide
rapidly their movement across the different areas of Niger or
neighbouring countries. In fact, delays in sharing information
(usually from national/regional level to community level) was
stated as the most frequent challenge in relation to climate
information systems:
GRAPH 11
Number of informants reporting types
of challenges for climate information
Most participants reverted back to positive
feedback after a drop between 2015 and 2016.
For instance, 80% of reposndents reported
the climate information to be either pertinent
or very pertinent in 2017 while less than 50%
expressed the same view in 2016. Despite these
changes, the climate information is generally
deemed as pertinent but the intervention did
not manage to mantain a constant upward trend,
although the overall difference from baseline is
a slight improvement. Access and use of climate
information were also considered in the visual
representations to investigate how information
spread and translated into action.
Only in the last year did more respondents report
receiving and following climate information
than who did not (54% and 46% respectively).
The project has contributed to accelerate
the dissemination of climate information to a
critical mass but is still below expected. The
reception and acceptance of climate information
accelerated one of its main uses: to sensitize the
community. The histogram below shows what
respondents in targeted areas reported in terms
of use of climate information to improve their
livelihoods and to raise community awareness.
GRAPH 12
Climate information pertinence systems in PRESENCES (KIIS)
GRAPH 13
Following climate information
DELAYS IN SHARING/RECEIVING CLIMATIC INFORMATION
LACK OF GLOBAL (COMMUNAL) RADIO COVERAGE
LACK OF FORECAST PRECISION AT LOCAL LEVEL
LIMITED INTERVENTION AREA
NEED TO REINFORCE SCAP-RU ROLE
DELAYS IN SEED DISTRIBUTION
LANGUAGE ACCESSIBILITY
LACK OF FINANCIAL RESOURCES
8
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
RELATIVE FREQUENCY BY NUMBER OF RESPONSES PER YEAR
PERCENTAGEOFRESPONDENTS
PERCEPTION OF QUALITY OF CLIMATE INFORMATION
NOT
PERTINENT
LOW
PERTINENCE
PERTINENT VERY
PERTINENT
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
2015 2015 2015
RELATIVE FREQUENCY BY NUMBER OF RESPONSES PER YEAR
PERCEPTION OF QUALITY OF CLIMATE INFORMATION
NO YES
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
2015 2015 2015

The information from key informants also confirms that the communities are now increasingly using climate
information and particularly for the following reasons: planning or preparation and adaptation of their agricultural
or livestock practices, decision of when to sow, choosing the appropriate type of seeds or use of improved seeds.
Testimonies from interview stakeholders during the field visit of the evaluation team stated that the change in the
perception of agropastoral communities in terms of how useful (or accurate) the forecast information can be. From
these, it is understood that project integrated local forecasting knowledge with scientific knowledge and this helped
give validity/trust to the climate information system being shared.
GRAPH 14
Uses of climate information
‘The climate information is not something just for
engineers or experts… It is now understood in the fields,
even the pastoralists want to know… they have their
traditional knowledge, but they need the scientific
information, they know that they can get informed by an
institution, so it is a big change... before they would not
care so much but now they pay attention [...]. They trust it
and they know where to look for the information. This is
one of the biggest changes I have seen... it’s very clear.’
BRACED local partner staff
5.4.3 User-focused channels
mainstreamed by
government stakeholders
targeted by PRESENCES
PRESENCES committed great focus to the capacity
building of early warning structures through training
on data collection and transmission of fact sheets at
the Commune level. The efficiency of data flow greatly
improved from a complete lack of system to transmission
of relevant climate information via the ODK application to
the “Observatoires de Suivi de la Vulnérabilité” (OSV) and
sub-regional committees for food crisis prevention and
management. PRESENCES established adequate SCAP/
RUs within communities and OSV at the Commune level
by training dedicated human resources and enabling the
whole system to be digitised and accessible.
PRESENCES linked the whole inter-community framework
for the exchange, validation and reporting of information
on climate events, food security, health and nutrition,
social relations and conflict management, environment
and natural resource management with data transmission
channels such as SMS and tablets in the transmission of
early warnings up- and downward.
In selected Communes, OSVs are now equipped with skills
and the required technology to download the vulnerability
monitoring sheet and provide information on the
household living conditions sector by sector. The collection
and transmission of this type of information at Commune
level is critical to enable the chain of the national system for
prevention and management of food crises (DNPGCA) to
be activated at the level of municipalities.
From the key informant interviews with the Services
Techniques in Torodi, Guelladio and Hamdallaye, it became
apparent that the roll-out of mobile phones and tablets
has not advanced equally across the different Communes;
it also came later in the project which had a hindering
effect on establishing ways of working and measuring
progress. Nevertheless, technical services representatives
responsible for transmitting information up the SCAP/RU
chain stated that the use of mobile phones and tablets,
when successful, has made a tremendous improvement in
the speed and cost-effectiveness aspect of transmitting
climate and early warning information. If relying on
physical paper forms and volunteers or technical staff
travelling in order to submit the information, the system is
dependent on a lot more time and transport means which
render it low from a sustainability aspect.
5.4.4 Communication
channels importance
over project’s duration
The key types of communication channels in the context
of PRESENCES were institutional and at the community
level. As explained in the sections above the SCAP/RU is
the backbone of how climate and vulnerability information
flows from the municipality to the Commune level.
Monitoring data helps identify the channels of information
people reported accessing most frequently. In the graph
below we see that the radio is the channel showing the
most marked growth during the implementation of the
project: from 18% to 35%. Community radios, followed
by mobile phones are the most frequently quoted by key
stakeholders. This trend goes alongside the mobilisation
of community groups, though the latter did not seem to
remain constant.
The leverage on radio stations significantly changed
the way information was shared from the beginning of
the period. If at the beginning of PRESENCES the most
common channel to transmit climate information was
community group, by the end of the project accessing
information from radio is more frequent.
GRAPH 15
Channels reception climate information
HOW RESPONDENTS USE CLIMATE INFORMATION
2016
COUNTOFRESPONSES
USES OF CLIMATE INFORMATION
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
OPTIMALSELLING
RESOURCES
FOLLOWCLIMATE
INFORMATION
CHOICEOF
SEEDS
DIVERSIFICATION
MIGRATION
MINING
CONSTRUCTION
CONSEVATION
ADAPTATION
STOCKAGE
SELLINGSTRAWS
SELLINGFODDER
ASKFORSUPPORT
TOFAMILY
SENSITIZE
COMMUNITY
SUPPORTFAMILY
TRANSFER
REMITTENCES
2017
CHANNELS USED TO RECEIVE CLIMATE INFORMATION
PERCENTAGEOF
RESPONDENTS
PERYEAR
OTHERS COMMUNITY
GROUPS
HOUSEHOLD NGO PSP RADIO TV
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
2015 2016 2017

5.4.5 What limitations were encountered in the climate
information systems that could reduce the impact on resilience?
During the final workshop organised with all implementing
partners a series of challenges and mitigation strategies
were identified in relation to climate information systems.
In relation to the reception of rain forecast for the season,
delays in the sharing of results was due to a difficult
relationship between PRESENCES partners and national
weather bodies. The suggested solution by implementing
partners interviewed during the visit of the evaluation
team in Niger was to work in greater synergy with
other non-state actors to improve collaboration with
the Directorate of National Meteorology of Niger but it
remains unclear how feasible, sustainable that would be
and the adequate modalities to do so.
In terms of dissemination of recommendations by radio
stations, limited capacity of radio presenters to explain
technical knowledge was addressed by PRESENCES
through adequate training to ensure the relevant climate
information was communicated in a way for listeners to
know how to use it. The participation of specialists from
governmental technical services and NGOs in running
radio programs was more than 60% of all targeted areas.
Yet, the survey techniques adopted by radio services
to understand its audience still requires improvements,
especially in the polling approach to determine the
type of information different kind of listeners retain.
In this respect, a limitation that was not addressed in
PRESENCES was to ensure gender equitable access to
information via radios. In the workshop conducted during
the evaluation visit in Niger, implementing partners
suggested that women’s lack of exposure and financial
resources could have been better tackled by organising
specific listening clubs that best aligned with their
availability and needs.
Unclear sustainability of the dissemination of information
by radio stations and other channels remains because
of the lack of financial means at the Commune level
to take over the initiative. PRESENCES did encourage
municipalities to plan for the diffusion of PSP information
in their Communal Development Plans and Annual
Investment Plans but there is no evidence whether these
plans did achieve the expected budgetary changes to
allow the perpetuation of radio programmes linked to
climate information. A less cost-intensive strategy adopted
by the project was the dissemination of illustrated flip
charts (pagivoltes) across communities to share climate
information beyond the project’s duration. During the
validation workshop, implementing partners reported
that this approach was observed to be effective in the
context of PRESENCES. This statement was not further
confirmed or analysed with project participants and other
stakeholders therefore it remains inconclusive.
Key informants almost unanimously mentioned the lack of
financial resources as a limitation, or in reverse, financial
and resources support being the biggest contribution of
PRESENCES in setting up and reviving the SCAP-RU/OSV
and diffusion of climate information. In one stakeholder’s
words:
“The Service Technique have the information but BRACED
facilitated (means of transport, per diem…), taking in charge
all the activities. Also, it tried to reinforce the capacitiesat
the state level, this does not happen consistently… BRACED
did a workshop every year to build skills in terms of what
to do with the data and climate information and provided
capacity building...”. As another project staff stated, “in some
communities, there are going to be some volunteers/ monitors
that will continue being engaged, but in some villages this will
fade out…”.[Governmental technical service representative]
The scale of other initiatives implemented outside of the
context of PRESENCES was also cited as a limitation. For
instance, the “Geographic Information Exchange Platform”
among pastoral communities was critical to disseminate
information about best pathways for transhumance. Also,
in this case, this effective initiative was only adopted by
targeted sites as it did not manage to find the adequate
leverages to extend its adoption across all pastoral areas.
This finding further underlines the impression received
from key informants about how important it becomes to
extend effective initiatives across multiple localities.
6 Learning package:
Credit System for resilience
As a core component of PRESENCES intervention model, a series of credit mechanisms were supported: cereal banks,
VSLA and warrantage. Their description was specified in section 4.3. The learning package that underpins the credit
systems for resilience relates to the following list of activities:
ACTIVITY 1
ESTABLISHED COMMITEES
TO MANAGE CEREAL
BANKS & WARRANTAGE
ACTIVITY 2
PROVIDED CASH-FOR-
WORK THROUH PHASE
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
ACTIVITY 3
TRAINED COMMUNITIES
ON MARKET ANALYSIS
TRAINED VILLAGE
AGENTS & CREATED
NEW VSLA GROUPS

6.1.1 Types of credit systems supported by PRESENCES
PRESENCES supported various channels to incentivise local credit systems and financial mechanisms focused on
building financial resources, especially savings, which was identified as a sub-indicator for the resilience indicator (KPI4).
Importantly, this type of support was clearly linked with a series of other activities meant to improve the ability of
vulnerable households to generate more income and diversify livelihoods.
15 Habbanaye is the concept of loaning an adult cow, goat or other animal to a neighbour or family member in need. When the animal gives birth, the original is returned
to its owner and the baby is raised for milk and meat. The cycle continues as more breeding occurs, spreading the wealth of livestock throughout the community.
16 http://www.reca-niger.org/IMG/pdf/RECA_Banque_cerales_Note_1_typlogie.pdf
The main channels underpinning the credit systems reinforced by PRESENCES are linked to reported credit amounts,
and information captured during implementation. The following boxplot provides a break-down of how any forms of
credit were distributed across Communes over the course of the last three years.
GRAPH 16
Credit distribution across Communes
CREDIT BORROWED PER COMMUNE
AYAROU
TORODI
DARGOL
HAMDALLAYE
GOROUOL
MEHENNA
GOTHEYE
ANZOUROU
DESSA
MAKALONDI
GUELADIO
INATES
2015
2016
2017
0 15000010000050000 250000200000 350000300000
AMOUNT OF CREDIT BORROWED
The median reported credit value
increased in Torodi (from 25,000 to
35,000 FCFA) and Dargol (from 36,000
to 50,000 FCFA), whilst it decreased
in Gotheye (from 26,750 to 25,000
FCFA) and Hamdallaye (from 38,000 to
10,000 FCFA). There is a wide range of
possible explanations to these trends
and it remains unclear whether credit
increases correspond to indebtedness,
to greater propensity to invest or just
easier access to credit. This evaluation
was not meant to be based on an
extensive data collection exercise
therefore for some of these Commune-
level trends causality remains blurred.
FINANCIAL RETURN FROM WARRANTAGE PER COMMUNE
AYAROU
TORODI
DARGOL
HAMDALLAYE
GOROUOL
MEHENNA
GOTHEYE
ANZOUROU
DESSA
MAKALONDI
GUELADIO
INATES
2015
2016
2017
0 600004000020000 10000080000 140000120000
AMOUNT OF RETURN FROM WARRANTAGE
The box-plot leaves the impression that
warrantage was implemented in very limited
areas or that people under-reported financial
figures in relation to warrantage. From the
monitoring data, the increase in median
financial returns from warrantage correspond
with upwards trends of credit amounts in the
same locations - notably Dargol (from 7,000
to 10,000 FCFA) and Torodi (from 1,800
to 5,000 FCFA). By considering the stated
increase of credit amounts and financial
returns from warrantage in these Communes,
it is reasonable to suppose that warrantage
provided an incentive for community
members to borrow more and to re-invest in a
virtuous cycle. Evidence from key informants
further validates that warrantage was
instrumental in generating profits where it
was implemented and that it induced positive
change in economic security.
GRAPH 17
Financial returns from warrantage
Channel Description PRESENCES Support
AVEC/VSLA
l Created and sustained new and existing VSLA groups
l Linked wholesalers with VSLA groups
l Conducted a VSLA-resilience action research
l Strengthened livelihood solutions by mainstreaming livelihood
schemes in support of income generations strategies: habbanaye15
,
vegetable gardens, non-timber and agricultural forest products
l Increased financial capacity of women by providing processing
machines for goods with limited market supply
l Formalised a contractual relationship between Mooriben and
the MFI “LINGU”
l Secured funds from the microfinance institution
l Sensitised selected communities on the utilisation of the
warrantage
l Established a governance structure and a management
committee for each warrantage facility
l PRESENCES committed funds to community warrantage without
the expectation of getting them back at the end of the project
l Subsidised cereal banks by enhancing its supply capacity
l Established and strengthened the capacities of the management
committees through an improvement of their governance
mechanisms and financial management practices
l Shared climate information with cereal banks management
committees to inform decisionmaking in regard to stock supply
Warrantage
Cereal Banks
Table 5: Credit systems
These are savings and credit groups organised around
periodic contributions to an internal fund. In general,
group members carry out joint activities to generate
income
This is a credit system where an individual producer
gives his/her grain and non-timber forest products as
collateral in order to receive a credit up to 70%-80%
of the total value of the stock from a microfinance
institution. During the lean season, the producer can
re-sell its stock in the market for a higher price, so
to repay the credit while generating extra income.
Warrantage was enabled through PRESENCES’s own
funds administered by its local partner (Mooriben).
It is a food bank at the community level to ensure
better management of grains during the lean season.
The products are bought in the market during the
harvest season when prices are at the lowest and they
generate income when sold in the market during the
lean season through a cooperative model, rendering
the model financially viable. The purpose of various
types of cereal banks16in Niger is also to provide the
community with a stock of cereals to cover its food
needs for some months.

6.1.2 PHASE cash-for-work intervention as credit system
PHASE was meant to help vulnerable households to
withstand the shock from the impacts of El Nino on the
2015-2016 growing seasons. The expected results from
the intervention were to reduce exodus of young people,
and the loss of livestock and other productive assets in
pastoral and agro-pastoral households coming from poor
and vulnerable pastoral communes. The intervention
model was based on the provision of cash through cash
for work activities focusing on soil conservation of
water and soil defence and restoration (SCW/SDR).
These activities recovered degraded land by bringing
it back under production to ensure coverage of the
food needs of community members. The SCW and SDR
activities were identified as part of the PACA and it
came from the analysis process initiated by the CVCA in
the 23 sites of PRESENCES.
This intervention ensured greater availability and
access to food for humans and animal feed for
vulnerable households of agro-pastoral and pastoral
communities; an estimated 70,000 people individuals
benefited from the initiative. A participatory targeting
method was adopted by CARE to identify the most
vulnerable households to benefit from the action. This
method allowed for the identification of beneficiaries
based on a set of criteria defined by the communities
themselves. The communities applied these criteria to
select beneficiaries with the support of key informants
who knew the people most in need. The final list was
validated at a general meeting.
Given the context in which PHASE was delivered, there
was no survey carried out to assess whether communities
perceived PHASE as a form of credit. During the validation
workshop facilitated by the evaluation team in January
2018, implementing partners indicated that cash received
from PHASE was used as a saving strategy to meet several
needs. This claim is weak and lacks attribution since no
explicit question was posed to project participants in this
regard. Nonetheless, implementing partners agreed on
this order of priority to explain how PHASE cash-for-work
was used as credit system:
1 Purchase food for the lean season
2 Improve livestock health
3 Buy small ruminants for fattening and restocking
4 Access health care for the family
5 Purchase school supplies for children
6 Slow down migration
7 Cover for social needs
8 Pay contributions in advance in saving groups
These strategies were highlighted as contributing factors
to the ability of households exposed to climate shocks
to reinforce their assets base. At the same time, the
results from PHASE cannot be considered as similar to
more permanent credit systems as its short duration
made it more of a palliative intervention without lasting
effects. The lack of focus on permanent vulnerabilities
in targeting and self-financing mechanisms rendered
PHASE much closer to an emergency response than a
credit mechanism that would have generated longer-
terms livelihood changes. Though this assumption can be
challenged since there was not any ex-post evaluation
conducted to further explore the duration of these
effects attributable to PHASE.
Despite the lack of sustainability, PHASE did produce
the conditions to boost the circulation of cash. As shown
in the following box-plot, the amounts earned through
the PHASE intervention varies across Communes and is
affected by inter-gender differences.
GRAPH 18
PHASE cash-for-work
MONEY EARNED FROM CASH-FOR-WORK DURING PHASE
GENDER
100000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000
AMOUNTS
INATES
GUELADIO
AYOROU
DESSA
ANZOUROU
MAKALONDI
MEHANNA
GOROUOL
HAMDALLAYE
TORODI
GOTHEYE
DARGOL
F M
Garoul reported a greater median amount
in cash-for-work (20,000 FCFA) when the
global median was 15,000 FCFA across all
other Communes. Evidence from the same
location shows an increase in credit amounts
reported by respondents in Garoul from 5,000
FCFA in 2015 to 75,000 FCFA in 2016. This
relationship indicates that PHASE represented
an investment opportunity for several
recipients in the identified areas.
6.1.3 Credit system functioning & its support
to the most marginalised
Characteristics of clients who had access to
credit system in the context of PRESENCES
From a livelihood perspective, the credit recipients in
PRESENCES come from poor and vulnerable households
and they mainly rely on subsistence farming and
livestock. No credit system was developed for pastoral
communities but only for individuals that belong to
settled communities.
They were selected through a community-led
participatory process in which community members
met in assembly to identify the credit recipients on
the basis of specific criteria (vulnerability class, group
regulation etc). Most of the individuals accessing credit
belong to households that are relatively more exposed
to the declining fertility of the land and lack of means of
production (for example inputs such as fertilisers).
Implementing partners and key informants questioned
during the visit of the evaluation team in Niger in January
2018 stated that the profile of target groups accessing
credit services in PRESENCES do not usually have prior
access to inputs (small equipment, seeds, fertilisers,
etc.). and cannot afford to buy them in cases where
they do exist in communities. In terms of geographical
distribution, PRESENCES developed different credit
systems across various Communes in Tillabéri region.
The warrantage system and cereal banks were set up
based on the availability of agricultural production17
or
non-wood forest products18
. VSLA committees were
supported in most Communes but groups were created
and sustained only across selected intervention areas
of Ayorou, Anzourou, Gotheye and Dargol. Security
restrictions in Inates and Ayorou, along with losing the
responsible implementing partner limited the potential
outreach of some streams of activities. For ease of
reference the following table shows in how many
communities each credit system was supported:
17 Millet, Cowpeas, Sorghum, Peanut, Sesame, etc.
18 Baobab, Moringa, Casia Tora, Fakou, Warow

Benefits from the use of credit for marginalized groups
The three types of benefits that were identified by
the workshop participants in relation to access to
credit systems were: 1) diversification of livelihoods, 2)
purchase of livelihood assets and 3) food security.
Regarding livelihood diversification, project participants
were able to buy seeds from warrantage and VSLA
credits especially for millet, cowpea and sorghum.
Farmers from the communities of Firgnaré and Toko
Binkani testified to their increased purchasing power by
20% thanks to their ability to sell products during the
lean season when prices were higher.
VSLA credits also increased the ability of women to
trade high-value rural products such as okra, sesame
and peanut seeds and to initiate gardening initiatives
in order to compensate for the food deficits at the
household level. More details on the use of credit is
shared in section 6.1.4. The sustainability of these
interventions depends on the long-term use of improved
seeds through Warrantage and VSLA credits to improve
agricultural services and stocks in cereal banks, which
remains unproven for PRESENCES. Similarly, individual
interviewees have validated the benefits of having
access to credit systems, by noting: the stabilisation
of (and access to better) prices in the market; ability to
secure small ruminants and livestock increase; increased
financial capital to respond to social and household
needs (e.g. school and health related fees, family events);
and general improvement of commercial activity in the
communities.
Observations from implementing partners participating
at the final workshop facilitated by the evaluation team
in Niger, reported that accessing credits contributed to
the building of productive assets, mainly through the
fattening of small ruminants. The profit from improved
livestock led various households to develop new income
generating activities, for example: production and sale
of juice; extraction of oil for soaps and ointment making;
sewing and small trade. Implementing partners during
the final evaluation workshop reported individual cases
profiting from credit systems to the extent of increasing
their livestock base. This is a qualitative indication of a
relationship between livestock and rural products, which
underlines a longerterm return of investment across a
wide range of livelihood sources or possibly a coping
strategy in times of climate shock.
Benefits on Income
To complement the findings from the workshop,
monitoring data pertaining to reported values for income
and use of credit allows for an inferential model to study
whether income growth can be explained by active
engagement in a credit system. The explanatory variables
presented in the regression table 7 are considering the
respondent’s gender: whether they are a VSLA member;
use of warrantage; and access to financial services and
credit. The results of this multivariate regression model
are described above:
The result indicates that the coefficients of some
variables are statistically significant at 95% confidence
interval, which entails that there is statistically significant
relationship between income figures reported and
whether an individual accessed warrantage, used
financial services and the amount of credit borrowed.
These three factors increase income and can be
considered as accelerators, which means that by
increasing one unit of credit or by stating access to
financial services the income would also go up. Gender
also shows a significant relationship with income, male
respondents reported greater income amounts than
women. The model responds to the expectations of the
project - targeted communities experienced income
growth where credit systems were reinforced. VSLA
membership did not prove to be statistically related to
income growth. Yet, if we were to analyse the magnitude
of income and credit increase between VSLA members
and non-members a strong correlation emerges as shown
in Graph 19.
The relationship between reported income and reported
credit amounts is shown to be positively correlated by a
factor of 0.26919
, which is a modest value (R-square less
19 Method Pearson: The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (or Pearson correlation coefficient, for short) is a measure of the strength of a linear association
between two variables and is denoted by r.
Table 7: Individual income explained by credit systemsTable 6: Activity distribution per credit system
Commune Name Warrantage VSLA Committees Cereal Banks

Anzourou In 2 communities In 4 communities In 2 communities
Ayorou In 5 communities In 1 community
Dargol In 2 communities In 7 communities In 3 communities
Dessa In 4 communities
Gorouol In 1 community In 5 communities In 2 communities
Gotheye In 1 community In 5 communities In 2 communities
Gueladio In 1 community In 5 communities In 1 community
Hamdallaye In 8 communities In 2 communities
Inatès
Makalondi In 6 communities In 6 communities In 3 communities
Mehenna In 2 communities In 4 communities In 1 community
Torodi In 4 communities In 5 communities In 1 community
47
strategy in times of climate shock.
Benefits on Income
To complement the findings from the workshop, monitoring data pertaining to reported values
for income and use of credit allows for an inferential model to study whether income growth
can be explained by active engagement in a credit system. The explanatory variables presented
in the regression table 7 are considering the respondent’s gender: whether they are a VSLA
member; use of warrantage; and access to financial services and credit. The results of this multi-
variate regression model are described below:
Table 7: Individual income explained by credit systems
The result indicates that the coefficients of some variables are statistically significant at 95%
confidence interval, which entails that there is statistically significant relationship between
income figures reported and whether an individual accessed warrantage, used financial services
and the amount of credit borrowed. These three factors increase income and can be considered
as accelerators, which means that by increasing one unit of credit or by stating access to
financial services the income would also go up. Gender also shows a significant relationship with
income, male respondents reported greater income amounts than women. The model responds
to the expectations of the project - targeted communities experienced income growth where
credit systems were reinforced. VSLA membership did not prove to be statistically related to
income growth. Yet, if we were to analyse the magnitude of income and credit increase
between VSLA members and non-members a strong correlation emerges as shown in Graph 19.

GRAPH 19
Correlation plotting
for relationship between
VSLA, credit and income
50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
0
AMOUNTS OF REPORTED INDIVIDUAL INCOME
AMOUNTOFREPORTEDCREDIT
NO YES
MEMBERSHIP TO VSLA
than 10%). This correlation would hint at the idea that
the more people earn, the higher the credit amounts they
borrow by a moderate degree.
When drawing a visual distinction between VSLA/AVEC
and non-VSLA/AVEC members, the relationship looks
stronger from a graphical perspective for members (see
graph above), but the actual difference in terms of the
correlation value between these groups is nil.
Therefore, though the inferential model shows a
significant relationship between income and credit, VSLA
membership appears as a weak causal variable since
there are other explanatory variables not explored in this
model that could explain what drives income between
members and non-members.
Nonetheless, from this graph and the multi-variate model
presented just before we can hypothesise that VSLA
members belong to lower income brackets and therefore
their likelihood to experience an income acceleration is
greater, albeit not conclusively.
To further understand the relationship between reported
income and credit systems, Graph 20 shows income
distribution across Communes by considering two
sub-groups: respondents who used warrantage and
non-users.
GRAPH 20
Relationship reported
income and
use of warrantage
INDIVIDUAL INCOME REPORTED
HAVE YOU USED
WARRANTAGE
0 2000000 400000 600000 800000 1000000
AMOUNTS IN FCFA
AYAROU
TORODI
DARGOL
HAMDALLAYE
GOROUOL
MEHANNA
GOTHEYE
ANZOUROU
DESSA
MAKALONDI
GUELADIO
INATES
NO YES
The income difference between users and non-users is
quite striking in some Communes, particularly in Gotheye
where the median income for warrantage users is 749,000
FCFA whereas for non-users is 70,000 FCFA (10 times
less). A similar pattern is recognised in Makalondi where
the income of warrantage users is 182,500 FCFA whereas
for non-users is 50,000 FCFA (almost 4 time less). Among
community members reporting use of warrantage, their
income values tend to be significantly higher (median
income for users is on average greater by 15%20
according
to the graph above), proving once again that credit
systems supported by PRESENCES impacted income.
Benefits on food security
in Tillabéri region. Improved seeds distributed to
poor and vulnerable households were both a source
of food (millet, cowpeas, sesame) and money (selling
sesame, cowpea and its byproducts namely tops and
oil). Implementing partners indicated that thanks to
the warrantage, the communities are now managing to
keep the surplus of their agricultural production for 4
to 5 months longer than before, hence avoiding selling
food products at a lower price during the lean season.
As a result, the claim that credit systems increase the
availability of food and seeds during the lean season is
based on the logic that warrantage facilities provide the
means for communities to benefit from warranted goods
to meet financial needs at the household level or to use
as production inputs (seeds, food for field work etc.).
From a nutritional perspective, field observations from
the implementing partners shared during the validation
workshop facilitated by the evaluation team in Niger
indicate that credit systems led to the diffusion of highly
nutritious food types such as moringa and baobab
leaves that are widely used in the preparation of meals,
especially during the lean season. These green leaves are
rich in vitamin A and iron and can be consumed fresh or
dried. This practice is observed in communities for the
recovery of malnourished children for the treatment of
ulcers, hypertension and diabetes. It should be noted
that before PRESENCES, implementing partners reported
it was almost impossible to find this type of green leaves.
It is fair to underline that partners’ observations were not
corroborated by an in-depth study on this subject matter
20 Median income: 100k for warrantage users and 87k for non-users
50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
0
AMOUNTS OF REPORTED INDIVIDUAL INCOME
AMOUNTOFREPORTEDCREDIT
NO YES
MEMBERSHIP TO VSLA

during the evaluation, therefore it is important to underline
the limitation in generalising these field observations to
the overall population targeted by the project.
Along with evidence shared from the implementing
partners, monitoring evidence on reported months of
food security confirms the upward trend. The following
graph provides a visual explanation on distribution on
any intra-regional variance at the Commune level.
Across Communes, the general trend over the years is an
increase of the number of months reported to cover food
needs at the household level - the median value across all
Communes increased from 3 to 4 months from 2015 to
2017. Respondents in Makalondi and Gotheye experienced
the greatest variation, from 3.5 months to 6 months and
from 2 months to 4 months respectively. In the same
locations, warrantage users reported the most significant
income values as described in previous sections.
The trend is described in Graph 21 by looking at trends
for each year of the project’s implementation (2015,
2016, 2017) per each Commune, where in most cases
(9 out of 12) the trend is positive. There are a few
exceptions like Ayorou, Anzourou, where either lack of
sufficient information or other factors not included in
this analysis contributed to the opposite trend.
This result is correlated by a factor of 0.173 with
access to credit systems and savings generation. This
relationship is modest, but it represents the basis to
assume that a greater ability to access credit and save are
drivers for food security. There might be other factors
as well, for instance the number of new rural practices
integrated at the household level (correlation factor of
0.160) or other seasonal factors that might have had an
even greater incidence on food security. It is reasonable
to claim that a combination of these factors is driving
food security up.
GRAPH 21
Food security across Commune
6.1.4 User investment decisions considering
market trends & climate shocks
The investment decisions that were observed by
implementing partners in the target areas in view of
market trends and climate shocks and shared during the
workshop facilitated by the evaluation team in Niger are:
1 During a deficient year of production, communities
prioritised the purchase of corn instead of relatively
more expensive millet on the market
2 Fluctuating prices of non-timber forest products are
guiding women to make different choices for the type
of income generating strategy to adopt (e.g. purchase
of baobab leaves before the first rains) and for the
supply period
3 Every year, the prospect of high demand for sheep
as Eid approaches guides the decision-making in
sheep farming
4 For value addition of rural products, the choice of
what to transform is based on the availability of raw
materials and market demand
5 Cereal bank committees take decisions about what
to stock based on the availability of goods within
communities and at local markets
Accessing credit strengthened specific investment
decisions that were observed to yield most returns in
the Tillabéri region, specifically: marketing/processing
of agrosilvopastoral21
products; fattening of sheep and
cattle, household gardens and braiding mats.
The uptake of agrosilvopastoral products was possible
thanks to the availability of accessible resources and
local skills, even among vulnerable groups. In addition,
multiple ways to use the land (e.g. for fodder, crops
and other rural practices) is in line with the need to
diversify livelihood means in view of climate shocks.
This observation was not corroborated by hard numbers,
but it comes across as a sound logic in the context of
resilience programming therefore the evaluation team
found value in reporting it.
Implementing partners involved during the final workshop
conducted in Niger as part of the final evaluation also
reported that for vegetable gardening, the availability of
water resources along the Niger’s river needed for rain-fed
cultures and the proximity to Niamey enabled this choice
of livelihood to be reinforced. The existence of livestock
adapted to the environmental context, and availability
of fodder and market demand were the major drivers
behind an increased investment in reinforcing livestock.
The production of mats was another area of investment
through credit systems thanks to the availability of local
resources and skills, though the in-flow of plastic products
represents a threat for this source of income.
From the monitoring evidence collected during the
implementation of the project, as shown in Graph 22,
most people reported the use of credit for food needs
and the same pattern was found every year. The second
most reported answer was the use of credit amounts
to strengthen income generating activities. Although
a relationship between credit amounts and income
generation exists, it does not seem to be the primary
purpose of credit use and it demonstrates how much
food needs and consumption smoothing remain the
most important priority for most respondents (over 65%
in 2017). This finding invalidates what implementing
partners reported as a primary pathway of credit
investment. Nonetheless, the graph does not explain
all possible avenues to ensure greater food security
and it seems from other evidence shown in this report
that a significant number of households adopted more
diversified livelihood strategies over time thanks to
climate information and other credit mechanisms other
than individual borrowing from financial institutions.
21 By definition, agrosilvopastoral systems (ASPS) is a collective name for land-use systems, implying the combination or deliberate association of a woody component
(trees or shrubs) with cattle in the same site.
NUMBER OF MONTHS FOOD SECURITY REPORTED NUMBER OF MONTHS FOOD SECURITY REPORTED
DARGOL
GOTHEYE
TORODI
HAMDALLAYE
GOROUOL
MEHENNA
MAKALONDI
ANZOUROU
DESSA
AYOROU
GUELADIO
INATES
2015
2016
2017
0 642 108 14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
12
NUMBER OF MONTHS
2015 2016 2017
YEAR
MONTHS

GRAPH 22
Use of credit
In addition to what was reported during the final validation
workshop and monitoring evidence, data from the
resilience diaries22
was also analysed in a way to represent
key topics and related terms emerging from qualitative
evidence shared by respondents, who were tracked
longitudinally for over one year. The word processing
technique (Latent Dirichlet Allocation algorithm) adopted
to analyse monitoring data enabled the identification of
key topics VSLA members discussed in relation to the
use of credit during the monitoring of the project. For
the most recurrent topic (for 22% of cases out of 1513
surveys carried out with VSLA members), improved seeds
were recognised in discussions with other members as a
common vehicle to grant or obtain credit from the group.
It also confirms that the use of credit amounts from VSLA
groups was mainly dedicated to address food needs and to a lesser degree to income generating activities.
Accessing improved seeds and climate information influenced investment behaviours of VSLA members, though there
are additional explanatory factors from PRESENCES contribution such as livelihood support. The qualitative evidence
highlights how complex it becomes to structure a linear causation to explain use of credit since climate and market
information have multiple applications beyond investment patterns, even though there are clear indications of its use
when taking financial decisions.
22 https://www.weadapt.org/sites/weadapt.org/files/2017/september/11637_0.pdf
6.1.5 Relationship between access to credit, livelihood
diversification and food security
From what implementing partners shared during the final
workshop facilitated by the evaluation team in January 2018,
access to credit links to food security and livelihood
simultaneously. The set of relationships that explain how
credit systems were linked through PRESENCES to food and
livelihood enhancement identified during the workshop are:
● The work of the SCAP RU in monitoring cereal prices
made possible decisions about when to stock and
de-stock in cereal banks and warrantage facilities.
● The equipment and training of groups in using
processing machines raised women’s income through
the sale of transformed products.
● The warrantage of non-timber forest products
increased their value and enabled households to earn
more consistent income to meet household expenses.
● The warrantage and fattening of animals led to more
household income for VSLA activities.
● The rearing of small ruminants through habbanaye
provided for organic manure used in vegetable gardens
and bio-digesters.
● The use of manure from habbanaye enhanced
agricultural production of improved seeds and greater
stocks in cereal banks and warrantage.
● The purchase of animals from the Habbanaye enabled
farmers to have financial resources for the purchase of
livestock feed and zootechnical products.
● The use of improved seeds led to an increase in
production of dry fodder to feed livestock.
This combination of these factors led target population
to be more equipped and able to cope with chronic
stressors. Monitoring evidence confirms this finding in
Graph 23, where the perception of greater decision-
making power clearly correlates with the amount of
credit borrowed for both genders.
GRAPH 23
Decision making correlation with access to credit
DECISION MAKING TO DEFINE COPING STRATEGIES
AMOUNTOFCREDITBORROWED
PERCEPTION OF HOW MUCH DECISION MAKING THE RESPONDENT HAS FOR COPING
TOTALEMENT SUFFISAMENT PAS SUFFISAMENT
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
0
M F
GENDER
From the graph above, credit
amounts are higher when
respondents reported a greater
role in taking decisions at the
household level in regard to
coping strategies. Financial
inclusion is a determinant
of investment propensity
and this finding shows that
access to credit intensifies
the likelihood of individuals to
better represent their personal
interests in resilience strategies
decided at the household and
community levels.
6.1.6 Risks encountered in the credit system that could reduce
resiliencebuilding
An adequate risk analysis on this subject was missing
in this project but nonetheless, implementing partners
considered various risks during the life cycle of the
project. During the last workshop for this evaluation, the
implementing partners indicated a series of mitigation
measures that were undertaken to render cereal banks,
VLSA and warrantage more effective and inclusive:
● By ensuring the availability and accessibility of
cereals during deficient season;
● By further improving the governance mechanisms
of the cereal banks, especially concerning roles
and accountability of members in the management
committees;
● By addressing the power structures underpinning
control of resources and the perception of what kind
of responsibility the village chief held in managing
public goods;
● By adequately protecting classes of high vulnerability
due to their limited surplus of production to engage in
warrantage in a sufficient manner;
● By monitoring the fluctuation of grain prices in the
market to determine the exact periods of recovery of
stocks and peaks of sales;
● By tracking the vulnerability of women in relation to
their access and control of production and their
presence in decision-making bodies of small rural
businesses;
● By triggering full participation of younger women in
VSLA across other credit systems;
PRESENCES leveraged on a set of these strategies to
mitigate risks within credit systems, but structural issues
remain for adequate monitoring of vulnerabilities and
power structures at the institutional governance and
implementing partner levels.
RELATIVE FREQUENCY BY NUMBER OF RESPONSES PER YEAR IN TERMS OF CREDIT
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
USE OF CREDIT
INCOME
GENERATING
ACTIVITIES
PURCHASE
OFFOOD
TRANSFER
TOOTHER
MEMBER
OTHERS
CEREMONIES
FINANCE
MIGRATION
2015 2016 2017

Available evidence points out at the existence of cereal banks
at the community level before the project. They represented
the entry point to deliver support to their governance
structures more effectively. Similarly, the existence of
VSLA groups affiliated with producers facilitated the
linkage with warrantage activities. A needs-based approach
was adopted since cereal banks were advised to sell stocks
in small quantities thus facilitating access to vulnerable
groups. In some other cases, the project facilitated the
improvement of warrantage stores to increase their
capacity for larger stock investment from individuals. Yet,
there is no evidence that the underlying issues about
power structures in decision-making have significantly
changed in favour of the most vulnerable groups.
Other challenges related to warrantage and cereal banks
mentioned during the individual stakeholder discussions
by all implementing partners were related to the risk of
securing and managing the funds collected, and the need to
maintain adequate capacity at community level in order to
ensure proper functioning of the management committees,
given the high levels of illiteracy in the population.
7 Cross-cutting themes
7.2.1 Gender
Women’s empowerment and gender equality are cross-
cutting issues that underpin strongly CARE’s approach in
programming. PRESENCES also committed to a distinctive
gender-sensitive approach and focus on women, taking
into account the particular context of Niger and the
cultural and social norms in Tillabéri region.
In terms of contextual norms around gender, the baseline
study identified that:
• Rural women have few opportunities in the
implementation of development activities;
• High levels of migration of young people makes women
form the majority in certain villages - they carry out all
households’ tasks and in addition manage the village’s
development actions. Women leaders, and particularly
elected women, serve as an example to act on social
stereotypes that keep women in the domestic sphere.
• Restrictions on women in terms of inheritance,
combined with cultural and social norms and their
high illiteracy rates limit women’s ability to meet their
needs and those of their families.
• Fewer women than men have access to weather
forecasts, probably due to less access to sources of
information.
A gender study23
produced by CARE during the
implementation of BRACED-PRESENCES indicates that
women are to a degree restricted in the decision-making
of their labour and income generating activities, while
this also depends on their age and the type of activity. For
instance, in terms of agricultural production, women are
dependent on their spouses even though they are fairly
autonomous to select the variety of seeds they cultivate
(as long as it is socially acceptable). As an example, the
cultivation of sesame, peanut, groundnut and okra is
usually more likely to be ‘owned’ by women – and they are
considered as lower value crops.
The same study found that in regard to livestock breeding,
women have the capacity and choice to breed animals,
but they largely need to consult their husband while the
reverse is not the case. The study claims that women
members of village groups (such as VSLAs) have greater
agricultural choice as their financial capacity and access to
quality seeds (cowpea and sesame) are higher than non-
members in the community. Also, the credit and savings
group provide the opportunity to women to save and later
invest on IGAs or the practice of embouche.24
According to
the study, a social reality of the communities is that young
newly-married women are not active in the space of IGAs
as they need to be primarily in the ‘service’ of their spouse
- IGAs are often practiced by older women that have 4-5
children already. Overall, the participation of women in
the credit and savings groups is seen to reinforce their
economic capacity and their role in the community,
since they gain responsibility, decision-making roles and
autonomy in the management of Cereal Banks and VSLAs.
The conclusions from the study offered an entry point
for the project to better understand and tackle gender
relations in terms of decision-making at the household
level. Yet, monitoring evidence collected over the course
of the project about “how much” respondents felt to have
power at the household level to take decisions, the trend
does not indicate a radical shift in gender relations. In fact,
while men reported to have either enough or complete
power in taking decisions consistently across the three
years, whereas there was no sign of change for women in
terms of increased perception of having a greater role in
decision-making.
23 Diarra M., 2016: “Participation équitable aux espaces de prises de décisions et renforcement de la résilience dans la zone de BRACED-PRESENCES, région de Tillabéry”.
The study targeted the communes of Hamdallaye, Gueladio, Makalondi, Ayorou.
24 A practice of animal fattening.
GRAPH 24
Decision Making Power from a gender perspective
In contrast to the finding in Graph 24, all key informants (ref to Annex 4 for full list) interviewed during the evaluation
visit in Niger highlighted that women’s roles and capacity building were recognised as important elements in PRESENCES,
albeit the kind of affirmations to justify this finding differ as shown in the graph 25. Women were found to be empowered
GRAPH 25
Gender affirmation
views on PRESENCES
from all
key informants
GENDER = F
2015
20.0
17.5
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
DEGREE OF DECISION MAKING POWER
COMPLETELY ENOUGH LITTLE NONE
2016 2017
GENDER = M
20.0
17.5
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
DEGREE OF DECISION MAKING POWER
COMPLETELY ENOUGH LITTLE NONE
WOMEN-FOCUSED
WOMEN EMPOWERMENT
CAPACITY BUILDING
GOOD GENDER BALANCE
BENEFITS FOR WOMEN
5%
37%
21%
21%
16%
WOMEN-FOCUSED
WOMEN EMPOWERMENT
CAPACITY BUILDING
GOOD GENDER BALANCE
BENEFITS FOR WOMEN
5%
37%
21%
21%
16%
through owning assets, VSLA trainings and participation in
community planning. The project was therefore deemed
gender-sensitive by key informants regarding the credit
systems package, which involves the Cereal Banks and
VSLAs. The affirming statements range from a milder
‘balanced gender approach’ or ‘a project that benefits all’
to women’s increased autonomy and empowerment. This
finding remains inherently biased since most respondents
were men (only 2 out of 16 key informants were women)
hence the statement should not be taken conclusively.
The visual representation below describes the range of
their views on gender in PRESENCES:

In addition to gender affirmation, the evaluation team also extracted quotes to describe how key informants justified
their responses on how gender condition improved thanks to PRESENCES, especially for what concerns household level
decisions and VSLA membership.
“In terms of engaging women…
This was not of interest to the
women in the beginning. Since we
started, they now are concerned...
An improvement in the participation
of women when the climate
information is shared as their
domestic activities may be influenced
(and also their husbands planning
that depends on it).”
Government official
“Women [gained] autonomy, [the
project] gave them power in their
household and in their community…
BRACED has allowed this significant
development of acknowledging women
in their household and community;
women are more attended, consulted
and respected. The VSLA is a guarantee
for the women, an aid that allows
them to develop and to be empowered.”
PRESENCES project staff
On climate information systems:
Yet, these statements are not corroborated by other
representative evidence and adequate focus on
women’s financial literacy and property rights remained
weak and it was not explicit anywhere. The positive
contribution of BRACED in increasing women’s skills and
livestock property cannot be generalised but should be
acknowledged at least concerning early signs of change.
According to stakeholders’ testimonies women have
diversified their sources of income and they have gained
respect in the community as their participation in village
groups and communal development plans was growing.
Yet, monitoring data of project participants does not seem
to validate the findings from key informants - therefore
the way gender was addressed in the project remains a
mixed picture.
6.2.2 Institutional engagement
existing structures and building sustainable systems
that would see transformative effects beyond the
project duration. This was more relevant in the Climate
Information learning package due to the involvement
of Technical Services and national and local level actors
(DMN, municipalities etc.). Key informants reported the
following trends of information:
• One of the biggest contribution of BRACED-
PRESENCES was on capacity building (trainings) and
financial support (transport fees, per diem of staff)
to enable institutional systems to work.
• Individual cases of a person’s increased engagement
with the project activities had a significant impact
on the effectiveness of the activities, the community
engagement and the likelihood of sustainability
(such as the example of Hamdallaye municipality).
• The project mobilised different actors and
governmental roles at the local level.
• Despite the institutional engagement, some
communes lack the means and willingness to take over.
Monitoring information from 116 institutional stakeholders
collected over the past 3 years and processed by the
Latent Dirichlet Allocation algorithm indicate a strong
pattern in favour of regulatory frameworks or initiatives
that bring climate information at the centre of institutional
resilience-sensitive investments. A theme that links to
mobile technology in measuring rainfall and other weather
information and relates to how climate information is
transmitted to other governance bodies, notably to OSVs.
Other topics emerging from monitoring evidence links to
capacity building and trainings to strengthen the interface
between communities and institutional representatives.
This type of evidence explains qualitatively the importance
ofclimate information transmission since donors and national
authorities act upon SCAP/RU evidence of climate shocks.
7.3 Value for Money
The following sections provide a tentative estimation
of Value for Money indicators since some indicators
were mapped to costs. Yet, the analysis leverages on
assumptions that have not been benchmarked to similar
projects therefore its comparability might be limited.
Nonetheless, the VfM analysis represents a series
of suggestions on how to link financial with results
data, which is along the same logic of linking activities
information (what was done) with outcomes (what has
been achieved). The importance of linking these types of
data both in numerical and qualitative forms compels the
evaluation team to propose some tentative cost-efficiency
and cost-effectiveness estimations.
7.3.1 Economy
Economy was measured by considering macro-categories of
costs and their relationships as outlined in the following table.
The spending structure provides an initial insight of where
PRESENCES team focused most efforts in financial terms.
Table 8: Cost analysis of last budget figures accessed
Agreed Budget Headings Total Programme Total expenditure % per category
Budget to Q3.17
Improved relevance, access to and use of climate
information services, planning and risk management for
climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction £251,883 £197,040 6.4%
Poor and vulnerable women and men are benefitting from
sustainable and climate-resilient livelihood options. £559,227 £436,546 14.2%
Governance systems and structures at local, national and
regional levels support equitable,sustainable and
climate-resilient management of natural resources £132,974 £100,665 3.3%
Loan capital £0 £0 0.0%
Personnel (Direct) £1,113,110 £953,836 30.9%
Personnel support (Indirect) £420,480 £350,834 11.4%
Monitoring & evaluation £171,793 £111,882 3.6%
Knowledge management & lesson learning £219,323 £184,758 6.0%
Training & capacity building £31,102 £12,275 0.4%
Capital items (Indirect) £144,850 £136,827 4.4%
Office rental & supplies (Indirect) £41,360 £38,754 1.3%
Logistics & travel £375,835 £331,214 10.7%
Administrative overhead (8%: Indirect) £276,955 £227,732 7.4%
Direct Costs £2,855,247 £2,328,217 75.5%
Indirect Costs £883,644 £754,147 24.5%
Total Sums £3,738,891 £3,082,364 100.0%

Output 2, comprising of all activities focused on building
resilient livelihoods, was the area with most resulted
spending, while output three was the one with least
expenditures. In terms of categories, the project spent
mainly on personnel both directly and indirectly. Output-
specific expenditures do not link to other categories, so
we assume the personnel and other expenditures were
spread evenly across the three output areas. The two key
dimensions to further consider regarding economy are: the
identification of key costs for each output area and the
overall estimation of a direct vs. indirect cost ratio that can
inform future programmes.
1 Identification of key costs
By considering current spending to date, the four most
important cost items in order of total budget described
in the following table correspond to particular activities
traced to specific categories of costs. The proposed unit
cost does not include a series of other personnel and
indirect expenditures since the latter were not linked
to specific output categories. Nonetheless, it is worth
identifying the most relevant cost categories to further
inform future financial benchmarks based on total number
of activities delivered.
The most relevant activity costs linked to output areas pertain to the setup of VSLA groups, facilitation of CVCAs,
reinforcement of water committees and training to Commune agents. The cost per CVCA carried across project areas is the
lowest compared to other key costs, which indicates the potential scalability of this activity without incurring into significant
budget increases. The adjusted value considers the incidence of other costs in the project but, because the estimation is not
conclusive, the unit cost only considers expenditures that directly links to a specified output area.
2 Ratio of direct vs. indirect costs
The main estimate of economy for this study is considered
as the ratio of direct vs. indirect costs, interpreted as a
measure to explain how much financial inputs were directly
involved in implementation
For PRESENCES, indirect costs are an estimated 25.5%
of the total budget. Put differently, for every £3 spent
on direct implementation, 1£ is spent on indirect cost
categories. The value is moderately high compared to
humanitarian interventions, a possible explanation is the
geographic spread of the intervention required additional
resources to ensure intensive outreach in area of difficult
access and with limited transportation facilities.
7.3.2 Efficiency
Efficiency is appraised in relation to key activity costs based on number of activities conducted divided by total
expenditure per output. For PRESENCES, the evaluation team identified in the following table the most relevant
activities from a budgetary perspective by considering how much a certain input was delivered in relative terms to all
other inputs for each output area. The link is partially defined in PRESENCES. To address this gap, the adjustment of
costs for reported outreach mainly relies on the assumption indirect and non-specified costs were evenly distributed
across the three output areas.
Table 9: Main individual costs traced to outputs
Top 5 budget items Partner Net Unit No. of Unit Budget Adjusted
from output areas costs units (£) (£)
In output 2: VSLAs integrating various
trainings and capacity building processes CARE £24.17 1732 Members £41,859.72 £73,748.01
In output 2: Support to the sustainable
development committees of water point CARE £87.19 310 Water committees £27,030.06 £47,621.27
In output 3: Training of Commune Agents Tree Aid £146.69 189 Trainings £27,725.33 £48,846.19
In output 1: Carry out CVCAs in
all the project sites CARE £13.23 1330 Number ofCVCAs £17,596.70 £31,001.68
Ratio of direct
versus indirect costs
3.08:1 (1 £ of indirect for £3.08 of direct costs) The value is
derived by dividing the percentages of direct and indirect costs.
Table 10: Key activity costs and output value
Activities most spent on Output Units % of total Estimated Adjusted
area delivered activities output cost cost
per output per activity per activity
CVCA/ PACA Output 1 1330 36.7% £ 160,255.3 £282,336.09
Local accords for natural resource
management Output 3 217 24.7% £ 107,648.0 £189,653.11
Training VSLA agents Output 2 1321 10.7% £ 46,600.1 £82,099.56
Training natural resource conservation
and regeneration Output 2 1222 9.9% £ 43,107.7 £75,946.69
Natural resource management trainings
at institutional level Output 3 189 21.5% £ 42,318.9 £74,556.99

From the proposed table, the key activities that
represented the largest proportion of expenditures per
output are: CVCA/PACA for output 1, VSLA and natural
resources conservation trainings for output 2 and natural
resource management at the institutional level for output
3. These activities are the ones to consider as the most
relevant to explain output results, more specifically the
KPI1 indicator which focused on outreach across the 3
output areas.
3 Cost-efficiency ratio
With information on main costs and outreach
distribution (KPI1), it is possible to extract estimates
for cost-efficiency. The three metrics considered are
disaggregation of KPI1 by gender, total spent/the type of
target individual and a disaggregation of cost-efficiency
estimates per Commune.
7.3.3 Effectiveness
Though these values remain indicative, they stem from the strongest evidence of trends for selected outcome indicators.
The effectiveness of this programme and its social return of investment can be interpreted in multiple ways. In this
case the three areas aligned with outcome indicators are: food security, coping strategies and retained savings. The
improvement in savings, food security and coping strategies are a considerable expression of change for this programme.
7.3.4 Equity
The project achieved a balance between men and women
in terms of outreach figures. Even though disaggregated
KPI1 and KPI4 data shows that the equity criteria were
fulfilled, there are programmatic gaps in terms of how
other forms of vulnerabilities, for example disabled
people. The targets are disaggregated per gender and
between direct and indirect but not any additional criteria
were taken into account in selecting and counting project
participants. In fact, CARE endorsed a participatory
approach of self-selection managed within communities.
In this way, most of the vulnerability criteria were defined
by the community themselves. This approach ensured
buy-in from communities by leveraging on their internal
and collective mechanisms of identification of direct
recipients without much external steer. Even though
MEAL evidence was not sourced along a vulnerability
scale, it is a reasonable to assume that most of the target
population and respondents belong to marginalised
communities under chronic shocks since the criteria of
selecting communities was based on exposure to climate
shocks which affect most of the population in the region
of Tillabéri.
Table 11: VfM indicators
Key Value for Money metrics Results
Understanding of outreach
KPI 1 Final Measurement
l Targeted High Intensity Women: 14,368
l Targeted High Intensity Men: 15,371
l Targeted Medium Intensity Total: 86,016
l Considering diffusion of climate info by radio the
total indirect outreach is estimated to be: 442,577
= Total Spent (£3,082,363)/KPI1 Direct High intensity = £103.64
= Total Spent (£3,082,363)/KPI1 Direct Medium intensity = £35.83
= Total Spent (£3,082,363)/KPI1 Indirect outreach = £6.96
Average KPI1 outreach = £48.81 per unit of outreach
Anzourou £45.68
Ayorou £49.25
Dargol £14.58
Dessa £58.52
Gorouol £20.53
Gotheye £28.40
Gueladio £47.12
Hamdallaye £24.68
Inatès £62.09
Makalondi £29.20
Mehenna £35.53
Torodi £12.71
Cost-efficiency ratio: (direct costs +
indirect costs)/total number of KPI1
Cost-efficiency ratio per Commune-steps:
l Average Spent per Commune
= All spent/Number of Communes
l Average Spent per Commune/Total
targeted population per Commune
The assumption that spend was
distributed evenly across all Communes
is to be validated.
Cost effectiveness ratio:
a A combination of recurrent data
of changes in benefit indicators
with costs associated in achieving
the main outcome;
b to place a monetary value to compare
the total value of outcomes achieved
against costs.
For £48.81 per reached individual:
l The incidence of individual severe hunger strategies reduced by 70%
l The number of months of food self-sufficiency increased by 57.14%
compared to baseline from 2.5 to 4.375 months as median yearly value
l The total resilience score increased by 18.66% from baseline according to
the KPI4 indicator, this means individuals are more likely to adopt a resilient
strategy to cope with shocks
l Their savings base increased by 80%. One proxy to measure there turn of
investment for money invested in PRESENCES is the increase in reported
savings times the size of total outreach. The baseline value was
8,451 FCFAs in 2015 while in 2017 it reached 43,090 FCFA.
l The return value from this multiplication is therefore the difference
between 2017 and 2015 averages of reported savings multiplied by the
number of direct high target project participants
34,639CFA*29,164 = £1,368,140 (about £0.37 per pound spent)
It critical to underline that the causal validity of this last assumption remains
unproven and even though the sample structure is large enough to infer
numerical estimates, its representativeness is not confirmed.
Project participant selection criteria Gender ratio: 51M:49F
Community self-selection of recipients

8 CONCLUSIONS &
MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS
8.1 Outcome and impact level changes
Recommendation
The seasonality factor remains a major explanatory variable that cannot be factored-out from the numerical
estimation of CSI for both food and asset trends. Yet, evidence from focus group discussions seem which took place
at the endline point to suggest that warrantage used as vehicle to increase the availability and use of improved
seeds is an income booster. It is advisable to design future resilience interventions by intentionally aiming at
institutionalising this type of market relationship between suppliers and communities as an impact objective.
Coping Strategy Index Key findings and recommendations
Food Security An overall improved food security is considerable across all intervention
areas. An improvement of almost 70% was measured in terms of frequency
of negative coping strategies. Even though there might be seasonality factors
explaining this change, the drop is significant and consistent across all areas.
This finding also translates in an increase of the median value of number of
months reported as food secure from 3 to 4 over the course of the past 3 years.
Asset Security Like the food index, asset security also increased significantly by almost 30%.
The drop is quite consistent across areas and given the longer-term nature of
asset security. This finding indicates that the project contributed to a more
structural change beyond meeting immediate food needs.
Recommendation
Overall the project seems to have supported an overall improvement in terms of new rural practices and savings.
Yet, it did not deliver on expected results in terms of project participant’s following climate information, timely
procurement of improved seeds and governance strengthening in managing conflict related to natural resources. For
future designs it is advisable to secure stronger partnerships with institutional and corporate partners at the national
and regional levels to ensure upstream partners commitment in supplying improved seeds across a wider variety
of crops more systematically and in a timely manner. In regard to governance structures, external forces should be
tracked constantly so to inform the delivery model in a more adaptive way and divert resources to test community
led mechanisms that can replace institutional stakeholders for conflict mediation over natural resources.
Resilience Indicator (KPI4) Key findings and recommendations
Climate information Monitoring data shows limited changes in the way climate information have
spread since the beginning of the project. One of the reasons could be the lack
of sustained activities in reinforcing the diffusion and use of climate information
in target Communes.
Monitoring data shows limited changes in the way improved seeds were
adopted across the intervention areas. One of the reason could be structural
blockages in the supply chain for improved seeds. Key informants also
underlined the latter issue.
The most remarkable changes in regard to assets relate to reported savings and
the adoption of new rural practices. Both trends are strongly upwards, and they
indicate how much PRESENCES reinforced livelihood systems by information
undertaking an integrated approach with climate
In line with assets, the diversification of livelihood activities and the number
of months security also showed strong and consistent upward trends. This
is a double confirmation that livelihood has experienced some degree of
diversification of households’ ability to reach more selfsufficiency.
The trends measuring the relationship between target communities and water
committee have improved over time, along with the general knowledge of
individuals of rules underpinning the management of natural resources. Both
indicators improved by over 20% and 10% respectively.
The greatest negative trend relates to conflict over natural resources and its
management. Even though water committees have improved, the general ability
of local communities to rely on local institutions to manage conflicts worsened,
hence their active engagement in regulating them dropped significantly. One
possible reason could be the significant deterioration of the security situation in
a few intervention areas, which created a general sense of insecurity.
Use of improved seeds
Assets, savings systems
& livelihood practices
New livelihood
practices for food
security
Governance structures
and access to
natural resources
(e.g. water committees)
Management of
conflict linked to
natural resources

8.2 Synthesis of evidence each learning question
Recommendation
Multiple types of climate information were brought to communities in various ways. It remains important to ensure
its relevancy and applicability based on the predominant livelihood type of a specific area, which was done partially
by considering two types of participants: pastoralists and farmers. Yet, there might be a more nuanced approach to
tailor climate information based on the type of crop or other types of data related to biomass production, surface
water availability or through a household-economy approach (HEA).
Climate Information Key findings and recommendations
a. What kind of information
users got in an understandable
fashion and used it to take which
livelihoodrelated decisions based
on type of recipient?
The climate information took different forms and shapes depending on whether
it targeted communities, households or institutions. Most of the information
was used to choose the adequate type of crop, which also informed additional
livelihood strategies meant to secure productive goods.
Recommendation
An insufficient number of participants received and internalised climate information. For future designs, it would
be critical to scale up and maintain the promotion of climate information, either through institutional channels or
strong dedicated partnerships meant to further educate participants on why this information is necessary.
b. Did users receive information
in time to take decisions?
People are more likely to follow climate information in 2017 than 2015. Yet,
the change is not very strong and about 10% more respondents would use
climate information than the ones reported not using it. Importantly, the
pertinence of climate information also increased and in 2017 most people
than before perceived it as very relevant.
Recommendation
One of the key challenges faced from the consortia was to receive the climate forecast information on time from
national weather bodies. What went well in PRESENCES was its support in linking and digitising early warning
systems within communities with the ones at the Commune level. For future projects, it would be useful to make
this result more explicit and at scale since the feedback received from technical services at the Commune level
treated this initiative as transformative.
c. What user-focussed channels
have been used to mainstream
relevant information by the
government and what is the
potential for the EWG/SCAP-RU
system to be further strengthened?
The project mainly focused on the link between SCAP/RU within communities
and OSV at the Commune level. The potential to further strengthen how data
flows from communities to Communes is significant, especially by introducing
IT-enabled solutions. Key informants revealed how transformative PRESENCES
was in this regard. The higher-level links between OSV and regional responses
were not targeted as extensively, and limited evidence shows any change in
that respect.
Recommendation
Radio programmes were found to be the ones with the largest reach number. Most respondents during project’s
monitoring reported to have received climate information through this mean. It was also found that the radio
programmes were tailored without considering people’s special needs or gender. It is advisable for future
programmes to pursue this channel but also to further adapt messages in a gender-sensitive way, by adjusting the
time of transmission during the day when also women can receive the message and/or by ensuring that community-
based organisations conduct collective listening sessions as part of their routine activities.
d. Were certain communication
channels more important than
others and did they change over
the course of the project?
Most respondents indicated radio channels as the most recurrent source of
information. The estimated reach of radio programmes is over 300,000 people,
albeit the sustainability of this information sharing modality is not ensured.
Evidence also indicates that a strong engagement at the community-level
remains and community groups remain the second most important channel to
receive information.
Climate Information Key findings and recommendations
Recommendation
One of the key concern about the radio programmes is their sustainability. Without lack of funds in the long-term
thecontinuation of these messages might end right after implementation. In this light, the project should take
appraise exit strategies in concentration with institutional stakeholders and other donors. Targeted advocacy to
secure additional funding or institutionalise budget changes at the Commune level is suggested as an essential
activity to include in similar programmes.
e. What limitations were
encountered in the climate
information systems that could
reduce the impact on resilience?
Lack of funding strategy to support the sustainability of radio stations could
slow down the rate of dissemination of climate information. If the radio channel
is the most effective in terms of outreach, there should have been a better
tailored exit strategy.
f. What types of credit systems were
employed in PRESENCES and where?
AVEC/VSLA, Warrantage and Cereal Banks are the main credit systems
supported by PRESENCES. Where PRESENCES implemented a reinforcement
of credit systems like in Torodi and Dargol, target communities showed more
keenness to borrow and re-invest in increased production. For example, the
median amount of financial returns from warrantage in these Communes
increased by 42% and 177% respectively (Graph 17) and the median credit
increased by 40% and 38.9% in the same locations (Graph 16).
Credit System Key findings and recommendations

Recommendation
Credit systems were important contributors in the target area of PRESENCES. Yet, the reinforcement of warrantage
and Cereal Banks was limited to a limited number of Communes. The evaluation team suggest CARE to consider
greater scale of activities in support of credit systems based on stocking collective and/or individual goods that can
be resold at a favourable price during the lean season. The results on people’s income are compelling enough to
justify a larger relative percentage of funds to be invested in that direction.
Recommendation
Similar contingency funds are recommended by the evaluation team since chronic stressors tend to be exacerbated
by other types of short-term shocks such as sudden floods or pests that can damage a certain crop. The cash-
for-work seem to be an advisable model though future programmes should embed an unrestricted cash-transfer
component to address of primary needs in case similar climate events occurred. In the case of PRESENCES, the
contingency fund was externalised to the donor, but it would have been useful to have designed for it as an integral
part of the project’s budget.
g. Did people see the PHASE cash-
for-work intervention as a form
of credit system?
PHASE cash-for-work presented a positive correlation with general trends
of credit amounts reported in selected areas. The use of cash-for-work was
reported to be focused on adaptive livelihoods and behaviours but given its
short-term nature it did not sustain significant livelihood transformation.
h. What leads to credit system
functioning and how do they
support the most marginalised
beyond the intervention in terms
of income generation?
Credit systems supported by PRESENCES were targeted to lowincome
households and are meant to address their livelihood needs. In the areas where
PRESENCES did support credit systems, evidence shows how it enabled an
income acceleration at the household level. For instance, savings amounts
increased by over 60% in targeted areas and it is likely that credit system
provided an avenue to speed this growth. The effect of credit systems under
the form of higher income or savings also showed a correlation with food
security trends, under the form of number of months a household can secure
food-stock (0.173 Pearson-method correlation).
Recommendation
In PRESENCES credit system such as the warrantage and Cereal Banks seemed to lead to greater income and
savings growth. This also reinforces the concept that the agricultural system needs to be considered for communities
to maximise the benefits from these credit avenues. For this reason, long term gains entail that target groups
access to seed and cereal banks is important but not enough. Future programmes should also consider how these
community structures receive improved seeds from upstream suppliers on time and across a wider variety of crops.
Recommendation
In the context of PRESENCES, climate and market information seemed to be discussed jointly across VSLA groups
almost 22% of the times over the course of the project with respect to how improved and normal seeds for crops
are used as a vehicle to obtain a grant from the group. This indicates that resilience programmes need to structure
and steer this conversation topic within VSLA groups more intentionally especially because food security remains a
primary area of concern and it should represent the entry point to imagine adequate livelihood pathways that can be
further accelerated thanks to financial inclusion.
i. What are the user investment
decisions taken considering
market trends and climate shocks?
PRESENCES provided both climate and market information and there is
qualitative evidence indicating VSLA as a platform to exchange both in
22% of cases, especially in relation to drought-resistant seeds. Yet, though
qualitative evidence seems to indicate investment decisions focused on income
generation, monitoring evidence shows that 65% of all respondents used credit
to purchase food. Therefore, it seems that chronic stressors are still severe and
require more inputs than credit.
Recommendation
In the context of PRESENCES, the primary purpose of use of credit was for consumption smoothing, especially in
the context of VSLA groups. Though it is to be expected in a situation of severe stress, it also indicates a short-term
solution rather than a long-term livelihood perspective in the use of credit. We advise therefore to integrate micro-
entrepreneurship programmes and financial literacy activities more systematically in future resilience interventions
especially when associated to VSLA membership
j. Are people more resilient because
they are accessing credit to
diversify their livelihood options
or to remain more food-secured?
By supporting credit systems, PRESENCES created a link between livelihood
and food security, both dimensions are important when measuring resilience
and the key resilience sub-indicators (in KPI4) that showed upward trends
in similar areas are the ones measuring number of months with food self-
sufficiency and number of rural practices adopted. In addition, the value of
reported credit amounts positively correlates with people’s ability to assert
their personal interest when responding to chronic stressors as shown in Graph
23. There might be a series of other explanatory factors to consider but it is
reasonable to assume that financial independence corresponds to greater
space, particularly for women, in decision-making at both the household and
community levels.

Recommendation
Evidence indicates that credit systems brought some significant results in selected Communes such as Gotheye,
where a lot of project activities were conducted to support the management committees and governance structures
of warrantage and Cereal Banks. Yet, one of the major limitation is how the support will continue in the future. The
evaluation team advises CARE to strengthen partnership with institutional bodies at the national and regional level
to formalise management protocols in relation to the governance structures of these credit systems. Another way
could be to ensure that the management committees are able to showcase their learning on how internal systems
improved to other ones that did not received project’s support. In other words, by ensuring the learning from cereal
banks and warrantage are disseminated simultaneously at the institutional and community level could lead to more
sustainable change.
k. What risks were encountered
that could reduce resiliencebuilding
through this system?
PRESENCES mitigated the risk of unreliable credit mechanisms by supporting
the governance structures of cereal banks and warrantage committees.
Implementing partners reported that their better functioning resulted to
greater access from selected communities and to greater financial returns
and propensity to invest/borrow. The relationship between these variables
are confirmed from descriptive evidence. For example, in the case of income
between Warrantage users and nonusers, in some Communes (Gotheye) its
value for users is more than 10 times higher (Graph 20). Despite these positive
results, the continuation of support to management committees of these
entities was perceived by all implementing partners as a major limitation after
the project ended its course. As for radio programmes, the project did not
adopt an exit strategy to how management committees of Cereal Banks and
warrantage were going to continue in the future with same level of sustain.
9 PROJECT-CYCLE
RECOMMENDATIONS
9.1 Design
The design process of this programme experienced
some initial difficulties since its geographical scope was
requested to be re-sized quickly. Therefore, the overall
buy-in on the theory of change was limited to the initial
multi-country design workshop. To the re-scaling of the
overall programme intervention an adaptation of the
theory of change did not follow. The project ambition
was based on different expectations regarding financial
resources and partners’ management capacities hence,
even though the pathway to change remained the same,
the actual intervention model only led to selected areas
of change. With this premise, future actions that could
improve similar programmes should consider:
1) Adequate resources to review the programme theory
and to steer structural changes in the intervention model
based on evidence.
2) Greater costing for monitoring staff, to ensure
separation between implementation and monitoring
activities.
3) Link the theory of change to a problem tree when
adjusting the geographical boundaries of an intervention.
An in-depth context analysis is meant to support the
Programme Management Unit (PMU) to identify the root
causes of a measurable problem, or set of problems, and
its role is to provide a solid source of evidence to track all
related assumptions about external forces.
4) Ensure the recruitment of human resources from an
international pool for the PMU in-country to procure
sufficient skill sets required to manage complex reporting
requirements.
9.2 Implementation
PRESENCES was implemented over the course of three
years and spending accelerated during the second half
of the project. Based on accessed financial evidence,
the project spend was over 80% of the total expected
amount (as of the end of September 2017), whilst
results data were updated to project completion.
As described in previous sections, results seemed
particularly strong regarding a relationship between
livelihood diversification, food security and PRESENCES
implemented activities. Yet, some of the advocacy
outcomes were not reached successfully at the scale
envisioned at design. In fact, most of the project’s
focus went to the livelihood and climate information
dimensions of the PRESENCES causal pathway. The
intervention model did not reach the same results in
terms of advocacy outcomes and influence at regional
and national level given its tilt in favour of strengthening
local capacities and the primary links of information
diffusion between communities and Communes. The
community-intensive model produced results in the
short-term Coping Strategy Index, but there remain
some limitations in the sustainability of the overall
model without direct buy-in from a critical mass of
regional/national authorities in terms of budgetary
commitments in resilience-specific activities. For this
reason, monitoring evidence can only indicate a trend
of change from baseline to endline but not beyond it. In
more details, the set of recommendations to scale up the
intervention model should rely on the following actions:
1) Measure the sustainability of PRESENCES through an
ex-post impact study to verify the sustainability of trends
in savings and food security, outside of seasonality
factors.
In addition to programme-specific recommendations, the evaluation team proposes another set of recommendations
that pertain to the whole project cycle since design. This is another important element to consider to further improve
the management approach in delivering such complex interventions focused on “hard to measure” change.

ANNEXES
2) Structure a governance protocol that provides direct
implementing partner support in adjusting financial and
MEAL systems to align with agreed quality standards.
3) Formalise review points of monitoring evidence
with the support of cost-recovered data analytics and
information management specialists in-country.
4) Redefine an advocacy pathway that can link
Communes to regional and national level platforms to
secure enough exposure on resilient livelihood models
to be facilitated through policy changes and budgetary
decisions. 5) Engage in closer coordination with other
stakeholders that implemented resiliencefocused
projects by sharing evidence on changes in adaptation,
absorption and anticipation of climate shocks.
9.3 MEAL
The MEAL system in PRESENCES produced sufficient
amount of information to outline trends of change of
significant scale across various areas of change. Data
was collected from individuals, community groups and
institutions. The diversity of monitoring evidence was
also supplemented by research projects like the one
exploring the relationship between VSLA membership
and resilience. Though the amount of data collection
produced enough trends to infer the most recurrent
themes of change, the data has some inherent limitations
given the restriction in accessing every Commune
and lack of sufficient longitudinal data. The following
recommendations should be considered the next time a
MEAL framework is designed for similar projects:
1) Cost for time staff only meant for monitoring instead
of including the monitoring function into the role of
implementation. Monitoring should be an independent
activity that recurs with a certain regularity separate
from implementing activities.
2) Ensure all monitoring respondents are uniquely
identified to best calculate how longitudinal the dataset
is. In the current sets, less than 50% of respondents were
tracked more than once, thus reducing the strength of
PRESENCES contribution claims.
3) Improve the time management of monitoring data
collection. Given the important role of seasonality, it
is critical to distribute data collection evenly across all
months in a way to represent as closely as possible the
distribution of output targets.
annex 1: Additional tables 70
Annex 2: Key Informant Interviews guide 71
Annex 3: Focus Group Discussions tool (CSI adapted) 73
Annex 4: List of Key Informants 74
Annex 5: List of reviewed documents 75
Annex 6: Monitoring tools used during PRESENCES 76

ANNEX 1:
Additional tables
ANNEX 2:
Key Informant Interviews guide
Name informant
Position and organisation
Date
INFORMATION CLIMATIQUE
1 Use climate information
l (Institutions / Gvnt): What types of climate information
did you use through the PRESENCES project?
l (Staff): With which climate information systems were you
involved in the PRESENCES project?
l What are the channels of climate information communication
most used by your organization?
l (For how long?)
2 What are the challenges of use?
l Describe five examples of how climate information was used by
your organization?
l Receiving climate information
3 List and describe the main channels your organization has used to
integrate climate information
l Explain how you responded to Community Early Warning and
Emergency Response Structures (SCAP-RU)?
l Climate Information System and Government
4 (Staff/partners): What do you advise the government to strengthen
the climate information system? (i.e. specific examples of advocacy)
l (Institutions/Gvnt/personnel PRESENCES): What institutional
arrangements are made to strengthen climate information systems?
l Limitations in the use of climate information
l What limits remain in your organization regarding the use of
climate information
l How did PRESENCES support you in resolving the limitations
your organization faced during the use of climate information?
Table 1: Number of respondents in additional monitoring datasets
Count of Commune 2015 2016 2017 Grand
Individual monitoring Total
Anzourou 14 19 13 46
Ayarou 11 14 1 26
Dargol 9 368 307 684
Dessa 23 13 16 52
Gorouol 43 32 1 76
Gotheye 86 112 155 353
Gueladio 1 71 16 88
Hamdallaye 6 37 8 51
Inates 4 2 6
Makalondi 9 35 44
Mehanna 6 33 39
Torodi 47 26 73

Grand Total 206 754 578 1538
47% F, 53% M
Count of Commune 2015 2016 2017 Grand
KPI4 Total
Anzourou 12 12 36 60
Ayorou 11 19 14 44
Dargol 224 880 535 1639
Dessa 27 21 38 86
Gorouol 51 30 81
Gotheye 189 534 225 948
Gueladio 53 61 114
Hamdallaye 11 88 43 142
Inates 4 3 4 11
Makalondi 8 47 33 88
Mehanna 27 55 32 114
Torodi 26 88 81 195

Grand Total 590 1830 1102 3522
50% F, 50% M
GRAPH 1
Trends of revenues

ANNEX 3:
List of Key Informants
STAFF
l Aminatou Daouda Hainikoye, Plaidoyer et Communication, CARE Niger
l Oumakaltoum Issoufou, Gestionnaire des Connaissances et Apprentissage, CARE Niger
l Harouna Hama HAMA, Specialiste Adaptation, Community and Livelihoods, Climate Resilience, CARE Niger
l Gadage Aboubacar, Chef d’Equipe et Specialiste Gouvernance des Ressources Naturelles & Jigo Moumouni
spécialiste Produits Forestiers non Ligneux), Tree Aid
l Sanoussi Ababale, Coordonateur, Pi Goal SAN, CARE
l ManzoIssoufou, Conseiller en Pastoralisme, AREN
l Ali Badara, Conseiller technique, Mooriben
GOVERNMENT/ SERVICE TECHNIQUE
l Ali Koumou, Service Technique Agriculture, Torodi
l Mohamed Ibrahim, Directeur Environment, Torodi & Makalondi
l Ibrahim Ahibou (Maire) & Mon Mouihassan (SG), Torodi
l Sidou Moussa, Service Technique Elevage, Torodi
l Abdou Haman, Mayor, Hamdallaye
l Sumaila Hamani, SG de OSV, Hamdallaye
l Adamou Zabani, Chef Service Communautaire Elevage, Hamdallaye
l Mayor, Gueladio
l Brahim Abdoullah, Service Technique Elevage, Gueladio
5 Effects/impact
l What are the main changes in the use of climate information
through PRESENCES activities?
l (planned/unanticipated changes)
6 CREDIT
l Use of credit
7 Have you used or managed a credit system provisioned
through PRESENCES
l (Please specify/give examples)
l Operation of the credit system
8 What are the most important challenges to the operation of the
credit system that you have used or managed
l Benefits generated by credit systems
l What are the characteristics of participants who had access to
credit from your organization?
l What types of the most important benefits have you achieved
through credit in the population?
Credit and livelihoods
9 According to you, how the livelihood diversification then the credit
increased the security of the targeted populations in relation to:
l Food security
l Economic security
l The security of productive assets
l Credit and markets
l What types of investment decisions do you believe are most
important in local markets (relative to actual contexts & conditions?
l Identify the three (3) most favorable commercial activities and
the three (3) least favorable commercial activities in the Tillabéry
region to use credit in productive form
10 Effects/impact
l What are the main changes in the use of credit due to
PRESENCES activities? (planned/unanticipated changes)

19 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) You or a member of your household went to bed hungry because there
was not enough food
Give concrete examples of how the PRESENCES / CARE project contributed to the reduction of
“Whether you or a member of your household went to bed hungry because there was not enough food”
Have you adopted any of the following strategies in your community?
Yes/No For each: Give concrete examples of how the PRESENCES/CARE project
has contributed to the reduction of the following strategies?
20 Record more active departures than usual
Give concrete examples of how the PRESENCES / CARE project has contributed to the reduction of the mentioned strategy
21 Sell your labor force to buy food
22 Sell breeding animals for food needs
23 Sell non-productive goods (jewelery, valuables, attic, home, work tool, etc.) for food needs
24 Selling productive assets (oxen, plow, cart) for reasons of food insecurity
25 Sell land for reasons of food insecurity
26 Entrust your children to the marabouts to diminish the mouths to feed
27 Losing your property following gambling
28 Resort to the sale of wood and straw
29 Use of anthill digs
30 Do forbidden or abnormal things to eat
Credit and climate information
31 How many of the participants in the discussion used climate information?
32 How many participants borrowed money?
33 How many participants used the grain banks or the warrantage?
34 Which group in the community has benefited more
a. Credit
b. Climate information
ANNEX 4:
Focus Group Discussions tool (CSI adapted)
1 General information
2 Name of the community where the interview took place
3 Name of Commune
4 Participation
5 How many participants in the discussion (men)
6 How many participants in the discussion (women)
7 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) Eat less favorite foods
Give concrete examples of how the PRESENCES / CARE project has contributed to the reduction of
“Consume less favorite foods”
8 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) Borrow food from relatives, neighbors or friends
“borrow food from relatives, neighbors or friends”
9 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) Buy food on credit
Give concrete examples of how the PRESENCES / CARE project contributed to the reduction of “buying food on credit”
10 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) To give up the payment of debts contracted to buy food?
Give concrete examples of how the PRESENCES / CARE project has contributed to the reduction of “Renounce the
payment of debts contracted to buy food”
11 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) Unusual use of food shortages (Anza, Jigga, Agua, Guera, etc.)
Give concrete examples of how the PRESENCES / CARE project has contributed to the reduction of “Unusual recourse
to food shortage consumption (Anza, Jigga, Agua, Guera, etc.).”
12 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) Consume seeds due to food insecurity
“Consuming seeds for reasons of food insecurity”
13 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) Ask other households for food for children
“asking other households for food for children”
14 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) At least one member of your household used begging
(because of food insecurity)
“That at least one member of your household has resorted to begging (because of food insecurity)”
15 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) Decrease the daily ration a. Give concrete examples of how the
PRESENCES / CARE project has contributed to the reduction of “Decrease the daily ration”
16 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) Decrease the daily ration for adults to benefit children
“Decreasing the daily ration for adults for the benefit of children”
17 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) Buy meals for reasons of economy
“Buy meals for reasons of economy”
18 How often during the last week (from 0 to 7) Spend a whole day without eating
“Spending a whole day without eating”

ANNEX 6:
Monitoring tools used during PRESENCES
KPI 4 + KP 1 et
PHASE codifié_2017_21_12_11_06.doc
Monitoring
Institutions-PRESENCES_2017_21_12_11_05.doc
Monitoring
Community-PRESENCES_
ANNEX 5:
List of reviewed documents25
Reporting & Project Documents
1 BRACED CARE Annual Report Year 1 & 2
2 BRACED-PRESENCES Baseline
3 Mid-term Evaluation (incl. KPI4)
4 PHASE Concept Note PRESENCES
5 Logframe PRESENCES_mise à jours 18122017
6 ToC Updated_FRA
7 PRESENCES - Intervention Data and Locations Jan2018
8 Activités par communauté
9 Rapport d’activités d’évaluation des PACA.
10 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)
11 Monitoring Datasets (Monitoring tools, KPI4, CSI)
Learning Documents
1 Document de capitalisation de BRACED-PRESENCES vf
2 Increasing Resilience Guidance Note_Final Dec2016_CARE approach
3 Niger-Climate-Information-Services-Country-Report
4 Observatoire de suivi de vulnérabilité ML2 2017
5 PHASE evaluation approach
6 Improving Resilience: Five-country study of CARE International’s VSLA, C. Pettengeli
7 Integrating disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change: Community
based early warning systems in Dakoro, Niger: Practitioner Brief 2, Otzelberger A.
8 The 3As: Tracking Resilience Across BRACED, Aditya et al., ODI
9 Rapport Etude Genre BRACED-PRESENCES Participation équitable
10 PRESENCES Innovations case study_v21082017
11 Etude de cas Hamdallaye_VF
12 Table Ronde BRACED-ALP-GARIC
25 The list is mix of internal and external documents

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BRACED PRESENCES Final Evaluation

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